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Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market

Jitomir,

I don't agree with you very last statement. I think if one waits until the political powerplay in Ukraine stops and reforms are being implemented, there is still great upside potential. But at the same time the risks are being mitigated or, at least, minimized to a degree. This is what noone gets about smart investing. You don't have to search for the next best opportunity. Simply identifying an OK opportunity is enough as long as you know that you are covered on the downside. This is what made Buffet the greatest investor of all time. He never really tried to strike gold with each next acquisition or investment. He simply followed the very same rule that it's better to invest in great company with OK potential rather then invest in OK company with great potential.

Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market

Kintu,

you obviously have not been to Crimea if you think any respectable tourist from West would want to go there. There is zero, I repeat, zero tourism infrastructure and what is there are ruins left from Soviet times. And because of corruption level and criminalized goverment no small business can survive in that environment, meaning the situation will not change until the reforms are going to be implemented. The only reason so many Russians visited Crimea year after year is simple habits that are hard to die all the way back from Soviet times. But even without any threat from Russia, the number of Russians travelling to Crimea every summer is getting smaller and smaller.

michaelschn,

please think next time before hitting the Submit button. You are just embarassing yourself with posts like this. I am not even going to argue with you. Open Wikipedia as Diego suggested and educate yourself of what country Ukraine is before opening your mouth.

Diego,

you answered your own question on what separated Russia and Brazil on one hand and China and India on the other from countries like Ukraine. The first two won a lottery named Oil&Gas, the last two made some significant reforms, both political as well as economical before they started to boom. There are always indicators on when country is about to explode economically. I agree with you that Ukraine is very attractive both from geographical situation and from peoples resource but until they do some meaningful reforms your investment money might just as well be spent playing a roulette. In fact, with roulette the upside potential is always higher and one obviously disregards all risks as you pointed.

Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market

Kintu,
I might side with panskeptik on the influence Russia has over Ukraine. In Ukraine politics money rule the ball and Russia is flush with oil money that it will not spare to restore its dominance over Ukraine. Yes, Russia made some costly mistakes in the past meddling with Ukraine but it learns very fast. With US in crisis both economically as well as politically, it can no longer play a containment role, so be prepared for Russia-backed party to win next presidential elections.

Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market

Diego,
I would not invest into these countries as well. The risks are just unacceptable for the average investor who does not fully appreciates local market flavors as well as geopolitical situation in the 'emerging' countries. I just though that you provided a one-sided picture of Ukrainian market without proper warnings to the regular folks who have difficulty locating country on the map, set aside understanding underwater current driving that countrie's markets. If you are going to invesdt anywhere from 'Eastern Europe Block', I would select Russia, followed by Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Litva). With Russia you get the same upside potential as with Ukraine but without political instability and dependancy on outside energy resources.

Ukraine: Overlooked, Yet a Promising Emerging Market

Ukraine is heavily buried in corruption and partisan politics. It's business market is dominated by oligarchs with deep politic ties and though Ukraine is not a player in the energy sector, it's fate is tied very closely to the fortunes of the oil and gas trade as most of the money flowing into Ukraine come from the neighbor Russia and most of the exports coming out of Ukraine are metals, which production cost is directly depended on natural gas prices. It's heavy industry is outdated and is only able to survive so far due to the negotiated contracts on gas imports from Russia below market prices. The only positive in Ukraine market is it's rich soil and growing agriculture sector. But with ambitions to join EU these sectors may get heavily clipped as EU already has already well established agriculture trade with no place for newcomers.
So here it says - stay away from Ukraine until the country reforms it's corrupted system and until EU warms up to the idea of welcoming them into the alliance.