even some weeks ago most comments here on SA were very positive on Apple, since then nothing changed. Still the same company, same business. Only the stock is now much cheaper to buy - but now I read critism and negative comments. For investors without good technical background it was very hard to recognize the Apple bubble. but in fact it was very obvious. When Steve Jobs died, it was very likely that Apple would have difficulties in the future. Even now you should be warned not to think that 400 is cheap, only because the price was once 700. Cash alone will not save Apple.
thanks Ashraf, the herd is saying "Steve Ballmer sucks" and "Apple is great, will soon bring the next big thing" ... this maybe has (partly) been true years ago, maybe ... but it is definitely a wrong mantra for investors. Long Msft since 1998. And still adding here and there.
BlackBerry Or Nokia - Which Is A Better Turnaround Story? [View article]
BBRY is strong in enterprise services. Nokia is strong with patents and map & navigation. Nokia is strong in all price segments. The other areas that you mention like which OS they use (they are all "good enough") or if or not they produce a tablet to me are not very important. Nokia has constant revenue, the downside risk is very low. They will grab market share and hence the price should go up. I am very optimistic for Nokia.
some years ago the stock was at $100, then Apple started developing some nice gadgets ... who of you at that time bought Apple shares ? Who at that time was praising Apple as they deserved it ?
Then they ran out of "next big thing" ideas. The price however went up to $700 at a time when the gadgets already peaked. Everyone praised Apple for their have done in the past.
Now it is on its way down, currently at $400 ... One day they will come with another "next big thing". Could be in 3 years. Who of you has better insight and believes it will come earlier, if at all - and can give some kind of proof ?
Or do you only "hope", or is your confidence in Apple only based on the past, the good old days when they invented ipod,iphone,ipad some years ago ? In my view Apple is still risky. It is not at all a blue chip.
Smartphone Wars: Why Nokia Has Been Left Behind [View article]
The gadgets themselves become more and more commoditized, so price goes down. To me the best position has Nokia: services (Nokia Music, offline maps and navigation) and enough patents - and they are able to produce smartphones in all price categories. Whether they are using WP8 or Android or iOS does not make significant difference for smartphone buyers. Long Nokia.
'Bye, Bye, Nokia' Or 'Buy, Buy, Nokia'? [View article]
Great article. Forget the past, only concentrate on the Here (!) and now. Nokia is indeeed a promising startup, perfectly diversified with all kind of ingredients to be successful in the "mobile" future. Nokia 2.0 reloaded.
The 2 Reasons Why Microsoft Is Not An Attractive Investment Stock [View article]
@alpha: I completely agree. Microsoft is growing and growing, mainly in the enterprise IT area, which I like very much. I started buying MS shares back in 2000 and every year or so adding to my position. I will continue doing that for at least another 10 years ... and I would be more than happy if the shares remain cheap, but the companys revenues,earnings,divi... are growing.
Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
@jrez: Very simplistic view. iPad is nice, but will not be replacing the desktop, iPad is more a media consumption gadget, e.g. people who need to produce stuff will still need different hardware. I know the former Apple CEO wanted everyone make believe that the PC is dead, but it is more that the PC now has different form factors, for different usage (tablets, laptops, hybrids, desktops, small screens, huge screens)
Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
thanks Bill 1. what has apple to do with software ? They are almost 100 % hardware 2. I use my phone for phoning and sync it with my contacts/calendar on my PC. I must admit I have no smartphone. Once bought a Lumia 920 some weeks ago, but sold it after 2 weeks. I found it boring. Do not get me wrong, I still consider the Lumia 920 as one of the best - mainly because of their excellent navigation/map, even offline. I find smartphone in genaral boring - even my teenager children find them quite boring now. Okay, that is my very personal experience
I am very pessimistic in general for smartphone margins, no matter if it is Apple or Samsung or Nokia.
I am long those software blue chips: Oracle, SAP, Microsoft. Apart from that I am also long Nokia, but they are more diversified than Apple - with mainly their important map technology (Navteq) and also patents. All the best !
Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
Apple now has 1 product - the iphone - they are very much depending on 1. problem, this product is hardware stuff, look what happened to other hw companies, some might have been successful over a limited period, but difficult long term 2. problem, it is a fashion gadget, competition is already there and Apple has no moat Now all that is left is hope and waiting for some next big thing. Good luck. Way too optimistic article in my view.
Apple Can Recapture Old Magic By Looking To The East [View article]
Part of the success of Apple is that they only sold highend superior smartphones - and created a strong brand - and could afford high price and hence high margin. That is obviously coming to an end now.
So they need to come up with something different in their "home market", i.e. high end. I think cheap iphones have the risk of damaging the brand. Anyway it is a difficult decision at Apple. They should have seen that coming, now it is very late to react. All they have is their huge amount of cash, but that alone is not the solution. Where is the innovation the last 2-3 years ? And with innovation I do not mean changing form factors of existing products.
Think Twice Before Betting On Nokia At Current Price - Part 2 [View article]
I suggest in part 3 you write about the days back in 2002 - 2007, and in part 4 about 1998-2002. Also some historical stuff. But do me a favour: Do not publish it on SA ;)
btw, regarding future (which is more for investors): We are now entereing a new phase, where the hardware will become cheap with decreasing margins, so focus should be on services and patents, where Nokia has a strong position, stronger than most of the competition.
you are talking about cash only and then you say you are long because of the fundamentals. Could you please explain the fundamentals ? Regarding the cash: if Apple would stop selling anything (or more likely only sell their current iphone - iphone is 70 % - for a decreasing price for some other 2-3 years), then what would happen ? They could pay their stuff for a couple of years, maybe decades, maybe forever. but how would an investor participate from that ? you sound like the cash makes Apple a safe bet, it does not !
I have my painful experience from the dotcom bubble when I started buying shares in 1998 and a very good time until 2000 ... then it all imploded, very slowly. It was always viewed as a normal correction and a good opportunity to buy on dips - which I did. And then it fell even more. Painful, but a good learning, if you watch your portfolio over a long long time going down and think: now that is the bottom. It never was for a long time. So what I would like to share here is: if you believe in a good future of Apple and their products, then fine. but better ignore all these comments about hope and "the good time will come back", "next big thing will soon come". The stock can easily go down to 100 $ within a year, yes it could also go to 1000 $, but there is no law or limit where it stops. It is not simply cheap because is costs 400 instead of 700 now. Only the future counts. So be careful with praising the past too much, it is distracting from looking into the future.
Apple's Dirty Little Secret [View article]
Microsoft: The Bears Are Wrong [View article]
BlackBerry Or Nokia - Which Is A Better Turnaround Story? [View article]
Nokia is strong with patents and map & navigation.
Nokia is strong in all price segments.
The other areas that you mention like which OS they use (they are all "good enough") or if or not they produce a tablet to me are not very important.
Nokia has constant revenue, the downside risk is very low. They will grab market share and hence the price should go up.
I am very optimistic for Nokia.
Apple Could Take Another Beating [View article]
Then they ran out of "next big thing" ideas. The price however went up to $700 at a time when the gadgets already peaked. Everyone praised Apple for their have done in the past.
Now it is on its way down, currently at $400 ... One day they will come with another "next big thing". Could be in 3 years. Who of you has better insight and believes it will come earlier, if at all - and can give some kind of proof ?
Or do you only "hope", or is your confidence in Apple only based on the past, the good old days when they invented ipod,iphone,ipad some years ago ?
In my view Apple is still risky. It is not at all a blue chip.
Smartphone Wars: Why Nokia Has Been Left Behind [View article]
Whether they are using WP8 or Android or iOS does not make significant difference for smartphone buyers. Long Nokia.
'Bye, Bye, Nokia' Or 'Buy, Buy, Nokia'? [View article]
The 2 Reasons Why Microsoft Is Not An Attractive Investment Stock [View article]
I started buying MS shares back in 2000 and every year or so adding to my position. I will continue doing that for at least another 10 years ... and I would be more than happy if the shares remain cheap, but the companys revenues,earnings,divi... are growing.
Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
iPad is nice, but will not be replacing the desktop, iPad is more a media consumption gadget, e.g. people who need to produce stuff will still need different hardware.
I know the former Apple CEO wanted everyone make believe that the PC is dead, but it is more that the PC now has different form factors, for different usage (tablets, laptops, hybrids, desktops, small screens, huge screens)
Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
http://bit.ly/Y0auMd
Enjoy it ;) !
Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
1. what has apple to do with software ? They are almost 100 % hardware
2. I use my phone for phoning and sync it with my contacts/calendar on my PC. I must admit I have no smartphone. Once bought a Lumia 920 some weeks ago, but sold it after 2 weeks. I found it boring. Do not get me wrong, I still consider the Lumia 920 as one of the best - mainly because of their excellent navigation/map, even offline. I find smartphone in genaral boring - even my teenager children find them quite boring now. Okay, that is my very personal experience
I am very pessimistic in general for smartphone margins, no matter if it is Apple or Samsung or Nokia.
I am long those software blue chips: Oracle, SAP, Microsoft.
Apart from that I am also long Nokia, but they are more diversified than Apple - with mainly their important map technology (Navteq) and also patents. All the best !
Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
1. problem, this product is hardware stuff, look what happened to other hw companies, some might have been successful over a limited period, but difficult long term
2. problem, it is a fashion gadget, competition is already there and Apple has no moat
Now all that is left is hope and waiting for some next big thing. Good luck. Way too optimistic article in my view.
Apple Can Recapture Old Magic By Looking To The East [View article]
So they need to come up with something different in their "home market", i.e. high end. I think cheap iphones have the risk of damaging the brand.
Anyway it is a difficult decision at Apple. They should have seen that coming, now it is very late to react. All they have is their huge amount of cash, but that alone is not the solution. Where is the innovation the last 2-3 years ? And with innovation I do not mean changing form factors of existing products.
Think Twice Before Betting On Nokia At Current Price - Part 2 [View article]
btw, regarding future (which is more for investors): We are now entereing a new phase, where the hardware will become cheap with decreasing margins, so focus should be on services and patents, where Nokia has a strong position, stronger than most of the competition.
I do not love Nokia. I am simply long Nokia.
Time To Buy Apple [View article]
you sound like the cash makes Apple a safe bet, it does not !
Time To Buy Apple [View article]