Don-n-ABQ's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/189258/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173891-cobra-electronics-risk-and-reward-in-the-spotlight?source=feed#comment-766305 766305 Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:19:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173891-cobra-electronics-risk-and-reward-in-the-spotlight?source=feed#comment-766302 766302
This was a value play, but you already did that with the $1.10 to $1.60-1.70 move.

You said: "The company has a strong presence in the niche market of professional drivers, and it possibly would be worth more as an acquisition than it is as an independent company."

But how do they get beyond that "niche market"?

And, what do they have that a competitor couldn't replicate without buying the company other than the name and logo?

These guys are stuck in that "niche market."

What is going to break them out to a new market? What will propel them to new revenues? I don't see this agreement with a "major manufacturer of mobile phone and navigation products to include the AURA data-base" adding anything significant to either the top or bottom line.

They need something new, something a new "niche market" thinks is hip. Something that is hard to get somewhere else.

So, unless Will Smith is playing the part of "Bandit" and James Gandolfini is "Smokey Bear" (but this time he is evil and not funny) in the big-blockbuster remake of Smokey and the Bandit, this time filmed Siberia and they are hauling vodka; and Brad Pitt, Angela Jolee, and Tommy Lee Jones are doing the major remake of Convoy, I have to look somewhere else.

Until I see something new and exciting, this company is 10-100.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:15:50 -0500
This was a value play, but you already did that with the $1.10 to $1.60-1.70 move.

You said: "The company has a strong presence in the niche market of professional drivers, and it possibly would be worth more as an acquisition than it is as an independent company."

But how do they get beyond that "niche market"?

And, what do they have that a competitor couldn't replicate without buying the company other than the name and logo?

These guys are stuck in that "niche market."

What is going to break them out to a new market? What will propel them to new revenues? I don't see this agreement with a "major manufacturer of mobile phone and navigation products to include the AURA data-base" adding anything significant to either the top or bottom line.

They need something new, something a new "niche market" thinks is hip. Something that is hard to get somewhere else.

So, unless Will Smith is playing the part of "Bandit" and James Gandolfini is "Smokey Bear" (but this time he is evil and not funny) in the big-blockbuster remake of Smokey and the Bandit, this time filmed Siberia and they are hauling vodka; and Brad Pitt, Angela Jolee, and Tommy Lee Jones are doing the major remake of Convoy, I have to look somewhere else.

Until I see something new and exciting, this company is 10-100.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173359-buy-shares-of-imaging3-in-anticipation-of-future-fda-approval?source=feed#comment-764872 764872 A) Edgar in the U.S.
edgar.sec.gov/edgar/se...
B) Sedar in Canada
www.sedar.com/search/s...
C) ASIC in Australia
www.search.asic.gov.au...
D) UKLA (FSA) in the U.K.
www.fsa.gov.uk/ukla/of...
E) other:
International Organization of Securities Commissions
www.iosco.org/lists/

2) Company websites and conference calls

3) Industry specific websites and publications

4) Equity conferences

5) Compare thesis with top analysts


On Nov 17 03:24 PM b3rkut wrote:

> so other where do u get your analysis info from?]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 03:59:46 -0500 A) Edgar in the U.S.
edgar.sec.gov/edgar/se...
B) Sedar in Canada
www.sedar.com/search/s...
C) ASIC in Australia
www.search.asic.gov.au...
D) UKLA (FSA) in the U.K.
www.fsa.gov.uk/ukla/of...
E) other:
International Organization of Securities Commissions
www.iosco.org/lists/

2) Company websites and conference calls

3) Industry specific websites and publications

4) Equity conferences

5) Compare thesis with top analysts


On Nov 17 03:24 PM b3rkut wrote:

> so other where do u get your analysis info from?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173359-buy-shares-of-imaging3-in-anticipation-of-future-fda-approval?source=feed#comment-762767 762767
I can look at almost any stock on these services, especially small and mid-caps, and find an error within about 10 minutes or less. Many of them get their data dump from the same vendors, like Reuters, so if the data service provider (DSP) enters the wrong number (hasn't updated) it is wrong on many of these services.

This statement says it all:

"I usually do not buy penny stocks due to their vulnerability to manipulation etc."

Sounds like somebody is trying to sell their position doesn't it?

If you people are willing to buy on this, have I got a deal for you...]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:59:20 -0500
I can look at almost any stock on these services, especially small and mid-caps, and find an error within about 10 minutes or less. Many of them get their data dump from the same vendors, like Reuters, so if the data service provider (DSP) enters the wrong number (hasn't updated) it is wrong on many of these services.

This statement says it all:

"I usually do not buy penny stocks due to their vulnerability to manipulation etc."

Sounds like somebody is trying to sell their position doesn't it?

If you people are willing to buy on this, have I got a deal for you...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173427-taiwan-semiconductor-and-brocade-are-on-sale?source=feed#comment-762645 762645
GlobalFoundries (Advanced Technology Investment Co., or ATIC) says they are going after TSMC over the next few years, so we will see how TSMC responds.

Thinning margins will need to offset with more volume, manufacturing improvements, and new products.



On Nov 16 10:20 AM Old Trader wrote:

> Despite the fact that its products are being reduced to almost commodity
> status, I understand that TSM is THE low cost producer of chips of
> various types, which is a heck of a moat. I also seem to recall they
> entered some sort of venture with INTC, a few months back.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:05:57 -0500
GlobalFoundries (Advanced Technology Investment Co., or ATIC) says they are going after TSMC over the next few years, so we will see how TSMC responds.

Thinning margins will need to offset with more volume, manufacturing improvements, and new products.



On Nov 16 10:20 AM Old Trader wrote:

> Despite the fact that its products are being reduced to almost commodity
> status, I understand that TSM is THE low cost producer of chips of
> various types, which is a heck of a moat. I also seem to recall they
> entered some sort of venture with INTC, a few months back.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173390-time-for-the-u-s-economy-to-reindustrialize?source=feed#comment-761629 761629

On Nov 15 10:32 AM Mrudula Shah wrote:

> A very good, appropriate and timely thought expressed by Mr. Armstrong,
> which with a bit more sophistication can be good enough to be published
> in magazines like Forbes and The Economist. This is what we need
> to do. Exactly how will be the next step to think and implement.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 06:49:11 -0500

On Nov 15 10:32 AM Mrudula Shah wrote:

> A very good, appropriate and timely thought expressed by Mr. Armstrong,
> which with a bit more sophistication can be good enough to be published
> in magazines like Forbes and The Economist. This is what we need
> to do. Exactly how will be the next step to think and implement.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173427-taiwan-semiconductor-and-brocade-are-on-sale?source=feed#comment-761623 761623
Even the Chairman, the CEO, and the predisdent of TSMC have said that their legacy business is going to slow down in the coming years. They have stated that their future lies with solar cells and LEDs.

Maybe Windows 7 and the expected capex in corporate spending for hardware will give the company a nice boost in the short term?

I hope they make an announcement soon about solar and LED, if they could do to those two markets what they have done in their standard integrated circuits wafer business, that would be something.

(Long TSM)]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 06:34:50 -0500
Even the Chairman, the CEO, and the predisdent of TSMC have said that their legacy business is going to slow down in the coming years. They have stated that their future lies with solar cells and LEDs.

Maybe Windows 7 and the expected capex in corporate spending for hardware will give the company a nice boost in the short term?

I hope they make an announcement soon about solar and LED, if they could do to those two markets what they have done in their standard integrated circuits wafer business, that would be something.

(Long TSM)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170106-cramer-s-mad-money-five-safety-stocks-10-29-09?source=feed#comment-738809 738809
That is like saying: "A Colombian politician takes a bribe from the cocaine cartel."

You can't get elected in Oklahoma if you don't believe in natural gas.

Things will only change for natural gas when the congressmen and woman from New York and California get on board. Two years ago this would have been impossible, but now the Marcellus Shale discovery might get New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio on board, and California's budget problem and all the NG in the Santa Barbara Channel might get them on board.

If the federal government and California opened up the SB Channel, the state of California could probably obtain $500 billion in financing against leases and royalties payments.

But, that probably won't happen unless we are both in a recession and the price of oil is $150.00 per-barrel and NG is $13.00...]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 21:37:28 -0400
That is like saying: "A Colombian politician takes a bribe from the cocaine cartel."

You can't get elected in Oklahoma if you don't believe in natural gas.

Things will only change for natural gas when the congressmen and woman from New York and California get on board. Two years ago this would have been impossible, but now the Marcellus Shale discovery might get New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio on board, and California's budget problem and all the NG in the Santa Barbara Channel might get them on board.

If the federal government and California opened up the SB Channel, the state of California could probably obtain $500 billion in financing against leases and royalties payments.

But, that probably won't happen unless we are both in a recession and the price of oil is $150.00 per-barrel and NG is $13.00...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167565-the-secret-paulson-goldman-meeting?source=feed#comment-725834 725834
2) Lawrence H. Summers, "Harvard academic"

3) Paul O'Neill was chairman of the RAND Corporation,

4) Alan Greenspan disciple of Ayn Rand

5) John W. Snow chairman of Cerberus Capital Management.

6) Henry Paulson at Goldman Sachs for 32 years.

7) Paul Volcker, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Chase Manhattan Bank.

8) Timothy Geithner, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, He was Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (1998–2001) under Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. Summers was his mentor, but other sources call him a Rubin protégé.

Until this (if ever) "New York City/Harvard" chain is broken, nothing will change.

We need a man from middle-America, a Warren Buffett (Warren are you sure you can't do both jobs?), a banker from middle-America who knows what it is like to lend money to a farmer, a small auto repair shop, a small grocery store, etc. Maybe a banker from the Saint Louis or Minneapolis Fed?

Until we hire bankers from middle-America who lend money to people who actually make things or provide a service that involves physical labor (and not just push paper credit default swaps around) I see no change in policy.

Okay, I am going to start holding my breath now... ]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:02:42 -0400
2) Lawrence H. Summers, "Harvard academic"

3) Paul O'Neill was chairman of the RAND Corporation,

4) Alan Greenspan disciple of Ayn Rand

5) John W. Snow chairman of Cerberus Capital Management.

6) Henry Paulson at Goldman Sachs for 32 years.

7) Paul Volcker, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Chase Manhattan Bank.

8) Timothy Geithner, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, He was Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (1998–2001) under Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. Summers was his mentor, but other sources call him a Rubin protégé.

Until this (if ever) "New York City/Harvard" chain is broken, nothing will change.

We need a man from middle-America, a Warren Buffett (Warren are you sure you can't do both jobs?), a banker from middle-America who knows what it is like to lend money to a farmer, a small auto repair shop, a small grocery store, etc. Maybe a banker from the Saint Louis or Minneapolis Fed?

Until we hire bankers from middle-America who lend money to people who actually make things or provide a service that involves physical labor (and not just push paper credit default swaps around) I see no change in policy.

Okay, I am going to start holding my breath now... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166074-ipo-windfall-coming-for-blackstone-group?source=feed#comment-713566 713566
Also, I wonder that because BX is public, and thus must make earnings, that they will harvest investments before they are really ready or the timing is more optimal? They may make some decisions based on their stock price and not what might be best for the individual portfolio company? ]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 03:42:40 -0400
Also, I wonder that because BX is public, and thus must make earnings, that they will harvest investments before they are really ready or the timing is more optimal? They may make some decisions based on their stock price and not what might be best for the individual portfolio company? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165409-cramer-s-stop-trading-costco-comes-back-10-7-09?source=feed#comment-713552 713552
Yield investors are usually longer term investors, so the company is trying to attract long term investors who want a better balance sheet, but a slower growth rate (they will grow slower by giving up some of their assets and cap-ex budget).


On Oct 08 08:35 AM CFO wrote:

> COP already started such a massive cost & asset reduction plan.
> Wonder what is the logic behind dividend increase?]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:58:20 -0400
Yield investors are usually longer term investors, so the company is trying to attract long term investors who want a better balance sheet, but a slower growth rate (they will grow slower by giving up some of their assets and cap-ex budget).


On Oct 08 08:35 AM CFO wrote:

> COP already started such a massive cost & asset reduction plan.
> Wonder what is the logic behind dividend increase?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165834-cramer-s-stop-trading-the-best-strategy-on-earth-10-9-09?source=feed#comment-713548 713548
It is called "priming the pump" and it is a great idea (short term). The price of oil goes through the roof, the banks rally from the earnings they make from fees, SWFs make money off of the fees and then the oil. They get a double-barreled blast of windfall.

Of course, somewhere down the road, we still have to go to rehab. This is the same business model of the crack dealer giving away the first few bags to the customer for free. It only prolongs the inevitable of actually fixing the problem and getting help. That means less "toys" and more savings.

But, by then the markets rally for the next ten years and the SWFs and Cramer make an absolute ton of money.

Hey man, need a fix?]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:47:37 -0400
It is called "priming the pump" and it is a great idea (short term). The price of oil goes through the roof, the banks rally from the earnings they make from fees, SWFs make money off of the fees and then the oil. They get a double-barreled blast of windfall.

Of course, somewhere down the road, we still have to go to rehab. This is the same business model of the crack dealer giving away the first few bags to the customer for free. It only prolongs the inevitable of actually fixing the problem and getting help. That means less "toys" and more savings.

But, by then the markets rally for the next ten years and the SWFs and Cramer make an absolute ton of money.

Hey man, need a fix?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164713-how-much-natural-gas-remains-in-the-usa?source=feed#comment-704640 704640
1) Lets get large government (federal, state, county, and city) fleets to mandate the use of CNG and LNG with electric first before looking at the general public's use of it. It is easier to install the fueling apparatus at a government yard than it will be for the retail consumer, both physically and through all of the red tape and discussions that it will cause. Then move to very large commercial fleets, like UPS and FedEx. Do this in steps please.

2) If you listen to or quote T. Boone Pickens, remember where he is coming from. He is self-serving and wants the price of NG to go to $25.00. If he didn't have an interest in NG or wind or water, I might take him more seriously. But, lets face it, he wants to make money, lots of it. And that is fine, but don't forget that part of it.]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 03:34:02 -0400
1) Lets get large government (federal, state, county, and city) fleets to mandate the use of CNG and LNG with electric first before looking at the general public's use of it. It is easier to install the fueling apparatus at a government yard than it will be for the retail consumer, both physically and through all of the red tape and discussions that it will cause. Then move to very large commercial fleets, like UPS and FedEx. Do this in steps please.

2) If you listen to or quote T. Boone Pickens, remember where he is coming from. He is self-serving and wants the price of NG to go to $25.00. If he didn't have an interest in NG or wind or water, I might take him more seriously. But, lets face it, he wants to make money, lots of it. And that is fine, but don't forget that part of it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164713-how-much-natural-gas-remains-in-the-usa?source=feed#comment-704636 704636
At $2.00 to $3.00 do we really want the District of Columbia opening up new areas of drilling?

I bet if you ask guys like Pickens they might say something different right now?

Even if Washington said that drilling would be allowed in offshore Carolina, at this price, would anybody do it?

Shouldn't we focus on demand right now and not supply?


On Oct 05 09:43 PM OilFinder wrote:

>Keep your fingers crossed that Obama and Salizer allow drilling off the coast of the Carolinas. I bet there's lots of goodies down there.]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 03:13:00 -0400
At $2.00 to $3.00 do we really want the District of Columbia opening up new areas of drilling?

I bet if you ask guys like Pickens they might say something different right now?

Even if Washington said that drilling would be allowed in offshore Carolina, at this price, would anybody do it?

Shouldn't we focus on demand right now and not supply?


On Oct 05 09:43 PM OilFinder wrote:

>Keep your fingers crossed that Obama and Salizer allow drilling off the coast of the Carolinas. I bet there's lots of goodies down there.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164713-how-much-natural-gas-remains-in-the-usa?source=feed#comment-704620 704620
How much did that well cost to drill and maintain?

How much would it cost to drill that well today?

I already know the answers to these questions, but you apparently do not. This well was very profitable. Check it out and get back to the readers.

Also, some people have already touched on this: I am more interested in the price at which it is profitable to explore for and produce natural gas. You left that out of your article and to me, it is the most important part. If some of these unproven and undiscovered reserves cost X, Y, and Z, and we are at A, this needs to be taken into account.

We need an article that shows how of the much of the unproven and undiscovered NG is profitable at $2.50, $5.00, $10.00, and $20.00. That would really be an article that is helpful.

In searching the Internet I came across a 2008 article by Allen Brooks, Managing Director of Parks Paton Hoepfl & Brown. In this article he tries to compare rig counts from the 1950s, 1970s, and 2000s. I never finished reading the article because I instantly found a hole in his thesis large enough to park a rig on:

You can't compare apples-to-apples rigs of 2009 with those of 1949 or even 1979.

We will never see the rig count numbers of the 1950s because one rig now can out drill and be moved faster than 10 of 1955. Mr. Brooks never even brings up the differences in technology that have occurred over the years. When comparing the past, people like Mr. Brooks and you, must take into account the changes that have occurred over the intervening period. There are things being done with drilling now that would have been laughed at in 1955 or even 1985 (especially offshore).

But, back to my other thought: How much will it cost to get it out of the ground and to my house. That is what I really want to know.


On Oct 04 12:54 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

> "In 1969 GHK, and its partners drilled a well over 24,000 feet deep
> in the Anadarko Basin. The well has produced 21 Bcf of natural gas
> (the equivalent of 3.6 million barrels of oil) and is still producing
> today. "
>
> That's an very expensive well to drill, 24000 feet deep. Over the
> 40 years what investment return did it bring to the investor? 21
> BCF natural gas is 21 million TCF, at roughly $2 or less per TCF
> averaged over the past 40 years, it brings in a revenue of $42M.
> The oil equivalent of 3.6M barrel, if averaged at about $15 per barrel
> in the 40 years, is roughly $54M. The initial drilling cost, inflation
> adjusted, plus the maintenance and operation cost over the 40 years,
> must far exceed the product revenue over the 40 years. This is an
> absolutely losing investment.]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:45:40 -0400
How much did that well cost to drill and maintain?

How much would it cost to drill that well today?

I already know the answers to these questions, but you apparently do not. This well was very profitable. Check it out and get back to the readers.

Also, some people have already touched on this: I am more interested in the price at which it is profitable to explore for and produce natural gas. You left that out of your article and to me, it is the most important part. If some of these unproven and undiscovered reserves cost X, Y, and Z, and we are at A, this needs to be taken into account.

We need an article that shows how of the much of the unproven and undiscovered NG is profitable at $2.50, $5.00, $10.00, and $20.00. That would really be an article that is helpful.

In searching the Internet I came across a 2008 article by Allen Brooks, Managing Director of Parks Paton Hoepfl & Brown. In this article he tries to compare rig counts from the 1950s, 1970s, and 2000s. I never finished reading the article because I instantly found a hole in his thesis large enough to park a rig on:

You can't compare apples-to-apples rigs of 2009 with those of 1949 or even 1979.

We will never see the rig count numbers of the 1950s because one rig now can out drill and be moved faster than 10 of 1955. Mr. Brooks never even brings up the differences in technology that have occurred over the years. When comparing the past, people like Mr. Brooks and you, must take into account the changes that have occurred over the intervening period. There are things being done with drilling now that would have been laughed at in 1955 or even 1985 (especially offshore).

But, back to my other thought: How much will it cost to get it out of the ground and to my house. That is what I really want to know.


On Oct 04 12:54 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

> "In 1969 GHK, and its partners drilled a well over 24,000 feet deep
> in the Anadarko Basin. The well has produced 21 Bcf of natural gas
> (the equivalent of 3.6 million barrels of oil) and is still producing
> today. "
>
> That's an very expensive well to drill, 24000 feet deep. Over the
> 40 years what investment return did it bring to the investor? 21
> BCF natural gas is 21 million TCF, at roughly $2 or less per TCF
> averaged over the past 40 years, it brings in a revenue of $42M.
> The oil equivalent of 3.6M barrel, if averaged at about $15 per barrel
> in the 40 years, is roughly $54M. The initial drilling cost, inflation
> adjusted, plus the maintenance and operation cost over the 40 years,
> must far exceed the product revenue over the 40 years. This is an
> absolutely losing investment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163880-tier-1-capital-ratios-and-npas-of-unofficial-problem-banks-in-the-u-s?source=feed#comment-704588 704588
Columbia Bancorp. (CBBO)

For this one we see insider buying by multiple insiders in Feb., May, and August. These insiders are buying at prices from $0.97 to 2.21.

There was also a nice gap up in September. On Sep. 17 the stock closed at $1.19, then the next day (Sep 18), it opened up $1.95, spiked to 2.904 @ 11:00 AM, and closed at $2.59 on massive volume (over 2 million shares versus average daily volume of 30 thousand.)

There was no news for the massive gap up and volume serge, and the bank was "officially" stumped:

www.thedalleschronicle...

Staci L. Coburn, the CFO, has been selling and not buying, in three small transactions this year. And so has director Terry Cochran and Director of Risk Management Robert Card.

But, directors Frank Toda, Charles Beardsley, Richard Betz, and Jean McKinney, have bought larger amounts this year.

So, on a net comparison basis, some of the directors of CBBO are at least buying some shares. Something the directors at FSNM are not doing.

David's list might have more value if it was additionally screened with insider transactions?]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:20:45 -0400
Columbia Bancorp. (CBBO)

For this one we see insider buying by multiple insiders in Feb., May, and August. These insiders are buying at prices from $0.97 to 2.21.

There was also a nice gap up in September. On Sep. 17 the stock closed at $1.19, then the next day (Sep 18), it opened up $1.95, spiked to 2.904 @ 11:00 AM, and closed at $2.59 on massive volume (over 2 million shares versus average daily volume of 30 thousand.)

There was no news for the massive gap up and volume serge, and the bank was "officially" stumped:

www.thedalleschronicle...

Staci L. Coburn, the CFO, has been selling and not buying, in three small transactions this year. And so has director Terry Cochran and Director of Risk Management Robert Card.

But, directors Frank Toda, Charles Beardsley, Richard Betz, and Jean McKinney, have bought larger amounts this year.

So, on a net comparison basis, some of the directors of CBBO are at least buying some shares. Something the directors at FSNM are not doing.

David's list might have more value if it was additionally screened with insider transactions?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163880-tier-1-capital-ratios-and-npas-of-unofficial-problem-banks-in-the-u-s?source=feed#comment-704572 704572
www.snl.com/irweblinkx...

You would think that at the prices some of these banks are trading you would see some insider buying?

I just looked at FSNM and there has been only one insider purchase in 2009 (Dee H. Patrick, 5000 shares @$2.18 on 2009-05-01; which brought him to a total of 180,015 shares; so big deal in his overall holdings).

Prior to that you have to go back to three insiders (Avila Kathleen, Michael R. Stanford and Chris Spencer) in July 2008. So, only one insider buy since July 2008.

Also, in looking at the "tale-of-the-tape," it shows that the stock has rolled over with large block sales (9/18 & 9/23) at around the $1.30-1.33 area. Prior to that it was positive at the beginning of August when it traded in the $1.00-1.03.

There is additional positive volume action that occurs the two days prior to the August 5 announcement of :

"First State Bancorporation (“First State”) (NASDAQ: FSNM) announced today the retention of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (“KBW”) as a financial advisor to the Corporation for the review of strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, including the possibility of entering into a business combination with a strategic partner."

Note to the SEC: There is also a curious volume uptick in the twenty (fifteen to thirty) minutes prior to the release of the August 5 announcement.

Bottom line, if the insiders are not willing to step up and buy at these prices, why should anybody else?

Money talks and .....you know the rest.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:35:02 -0400
www.snl.com/irweblinkx...

You would think that at the prices some of these banks are trading you would see some insider buying?

I just looked at FSNM and there has been only one insider purchase in 2009 (Dee H. Patrick, 5000 shares @$2.18 on 2009-05-01; which brought him to a total of 180,015 shares; so big deal in his overall holdings).

Prior to that you have to go back to three insiders (Avila Kathleen, Michael R. Stanford and Chris Spencer) in July 2008. So, only one insider buy since July 2008.

Also, in looking at the "tale-of-the-tape," it shows that the stock has rolled over with large block sales (9/18 & 9/23) at around the $1.30-1.33 area. Prior to that it was positive at the beginning of August when it traded in the $1.00-1.03.

There is additional positive volume action that occurs the two days prior to the August 5 announcement of :

"First State Bancorporation (“First State”) (NASDAQ: FSNM) announced today the retention of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (“KBW”) as a financial advisor to the Corporation for the review of strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, including the possibility of entering into a business combination with a strategic partner."

Note to the SEC: There is also a curious volume uptick in the twenty (fifteen to thirty) minutes prior to the release of the August 5 announcement.

Bottom line, if the insiders are not willing to step up and buy at these prices, why should anybody else?

Money talks and .....you know the rest.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163887-gulf-island-fabrication-value-with-deepwater-exposure?source=feed#comment-699170 699170
Well, I typed out a big long reply then hit the wrong button and it was lost.

Anyway, GIFI to me is more of a trading vehicle than a long term hold.

What we need is a chart that shows worldwide offshore rigs under construction. I guess this would be a buy when the price of crude is going up, the offshore rig count is going up, and day-rates are going up? Then it is a buy. When those indicators go down we short.

I like companies like Carbo Ceramics (CRR) a lot better that GIFI because of the cyclical downturns/overbuilds.

Thoughts?]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 19:21:46 -0400
Well, I typed out a big long reply then hit the wrong button and it was lost.

Anyway, GIFI to me is more of a trading vehicle than a long term hold.

What we need is a chart that shows worldwide offshore rigs under construction. I guess this would be a buy when the price of crude is going up, the offshore rig count is going up, and day-rates are going up? Then it is a buy. When those indicators go down we short.

I like companies like Carbo Ceramics (CRR) a lot better that GIFI because of the cyclical downturns/overbuilds.

Thoughts?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161899-making-a-value-case-for-axcelis-technologies?source=feed#comment-698250 698250
"Axcelis has already made several successful installations and received multiple follow-on orders from customers..."

But without actual numbers, this looks more like a PR pump than a real turn around.

Continue to poke this one with a stick like a rattlesnake. ]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 08:52:43 -0400
"Axcelis has already made several successful installations and received multiple follow-on orders from customers..."

But without actual numbers, this looks more like a PR pump than a real turn around.

Continue to poke this one with a stick like a rattlesnake. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163211-sirius-xm-poised-to-profit-from-muzak-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-693480 693480
I have to vote no on this one.

The current population for SIRI's footprint is 360 million people. They have 19 or so million subs. That is 5% market penetration right now. 10% might be easily achievable, but to get to 20% the business model would have to be altered, like some channels for free with ads or half the ads with a $6 subscription. 25% TMP is going to be a large wall.

Now, lets go to the Philippines:

Population: 92,222,660
5% MP = 4.6 million subs

Now, if we factor in GDP (PPP) per capita:
$46.0k (U.S.)
$39.0k (Canada)
$15.0k (Mexico)
$35.0k (MEAN)

$ 3.5k (Philippines)

So, 4.6 million subs divided by a factor of 1/10th the GDP = 460,000 subs.

How much does it cost to roll out the service?

You are not thinking clearly here. It is not worth it.

Australia makes sense (Rupert Murdoch)
Western Europe maybe makes sense (too many languages; which ones and how many languages?)
China (Chinese government will not allow SIRI in, they will do their own thing?)
Middle East (Al Jazeera in Arabic; not enough population?)

The Middle East in Arabic? You have GDP's that can support 20%+ market penetration (Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, all with GDP (PPP) per capita above Mexico and a combined pop of 35 million with one good sat; [as long as the O&LNG keeps flowing]).

Russia?
Pop = 142 million
GDP (PPP) per capita = $16.0k

Not much better than Mexico.

South America? Only two languages: Spanish and Portuguese, but low GDP, and Hugo Chavez wouldn't go for it in his area.

Remember, it is extremely expensive to put up sats, then you need a high GDP to get 5%+ MP. It is going to be very tough to make money elsewhere. Lets just get North America profitable first.


On Sep 26 03:33 PM BRUCE E. W. wrote:

> Incidently, In adding to my comments earlier I wanted to mention
> that the Philippines as a potential market is primarily an English
> speaking Country and has a direct interest in American cultural affairs.
> They are computer savy and very sophisticated about electronic communications.
> They are an ideal location to build up a Pacific Ridge interest with
> anticipations into China itself. Anybody else have any info on penetrating
> that market?]]> Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:11:31 -0400
I have to vote no on this one.

The current population for SIRI's footprint is 360 million people. They have 19 or so million subs. That is 5% market penetration right now. 10% might be easily achievable, but to get to 20% the business model would have to be altered, like some channels for free with ads or half the ads with a $6 subscription. 25% TMP is going to be a large wall.

Now, lets go to the Philippines:

Population: 92,222,660
5% MP = 4.6 million subs

Now, if we factor in GDP (PPP) per capita:
$46.0k (U.S.)
$39.0k (Canada)
$15.0k (Mexico)
$35.0k (MEAN)

$ 3.5k (Philippines)

So, 4.6 million subs divided by a factor of 1/10th the GDP = 460,000 subs.

How much does it cost to roll out the service?

You are not thinking clearly here. It is not worth it.

Australia makes sense (Rupert Murdoch)
Western Europe maybe makes sense (too many languages; which ones and how many languages?)
China (Chinese government will not allow SIRI in, they will do their own thing?)
Middle East (Al Jazeera in Arabic; not enough population?)

The Middle East in Arabic? You have GDP's that can support 20%+ market penetration (Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, all with GDP (PPP) per capita above Mexico and a combined pop of 35 million with one good sat; [as long as the O&LNG keeps flowing]).

Russia?
Pop = 142 million
GDP (PPP) per capita = $16.0k

Not much better than Mexico.

South America? Only two languages: Spanish and Portuguese, but low GDP, and Hugo Chavez wouldn't go for it in his area.

Remember, it is extremely expensive to put up sats, then you need a high GDP to get 5%+ MP. It is going to be very tough to make money elsewhere. Lets just get North America profitable first.


On Sep 26 03:33 PM BRUCE E. W. wrote:

> Incidently, In adding to my comments earlier I wanted to mention
> that the Philippines as a potential market is primarily an English
> speaking Country and has a direct interest in American cultural affairs.
> They are computer savy and very sophisticated about electronic communications.
> They are an ideal location to build up a Pacific Ridge interest with
> anticipations into China itself. Anybody else have any info on penetrating
> that market?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163441-haynes-international-value-in-specialty-steel?source=feed#comment-692239 692239
I have not looked at this company, but after reading your article, I want to know more about who the competitors are and if HAYN's raw materials costs rise can they easily pass on price increases to their customers? Do they have either proprietary end-products or processes that allow them easy pass-through? I want either products you can't easily get elsewhere, or even if you can there isn't enough overall supply to effect pricing?

Thanks....Don]]> Sat, 26 Sep 2009 15:27:05 -0400
I have not looked at this company, but after reading your article, I want to know more about who the competitors are and if HAYN's raw materials costs rise can they easily pass on price increases to their customers? Do they have either proprietary end-products or processes that allow them easy pass-through? I want either products you can't easily get elsewhere, or even if you can there isn't enough overall supply to effect pricing?

Thanks....Don]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163211-sirius-xm-poised-to-profit-from-muzak-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-692224 692224

On Sep 26 09:03 AM Neal Barkett wrote:

> Two comments. Sirius Xm has to be more customer freindly. More &
> more people are upset with the customer service, that they are cancelling
> even though they love the product, out of frustration (Cmon Mel get
> it fixed). Sirius Xm will be growing leaps & bounds internationally
> w/ the internet & I-Phone applications (will take a little time
> to get the ball rolling).]]> Sat, 26 Sep 2009 15:02:29 -0400

On Sep 26 09:03 AM Neal Barkett wrote:

> Two comments. Sirius Xm has to be more customer freindly. More &
> more people are upset with the customer service, that they are cancelling
> even though they love the product, out of frustration (Cmon Mel get
> it fixed). Sirius Xm will be growing leaps & bounds internationally
> w/ the internet & I-Phone applications (will take a little time
> to get the ball rolling).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163211-sirius-xm-poised-to-profit-from-muzak-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-690413 690413 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 05:29:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163211-sirius-xm-poised-to-profit-from-muzak-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-690407 690407 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 05:20:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163211-sirius-xm-poised-to-profit-from-muzak-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-690405 690405
1) Isn't the comparison to DirecTV (DTV) (competition aside) only because of the model of putting satellites up?

2) "Try as I might, I cannot find a single instance as an example, where DirecTV, Dish or any cable operator has installation contracts with auto manufacturers."

Wouldn't this be like sat/cable companies doing pre-installs with home/commercial builders? You buy a new house and it comes with a year of TV?

3) "The only true competitive threat to Satellite Radio comes from terrestrial radio companies"

Does this mean the Internet is not anywhere in the mix to compete with satellite & terrestrial radio? And what about 3G & 4G cellphones? They are promising to do unique radio through cell towers aren't they?

Terrestrial radio stations need a new business model (I have one).

4) "Joseph Clayton estimated the potential Satellite Radio market at over 300 million subscribers."

Over what footprint? I can see 30 to 60 million in North America, Sirius XM's current market place. I would be happy with that. But 300m? Wow. I can't see that right now in North America.

5) For the most part I only listen to the radio for three reasons:

A) the Dodgers;
B) the news sometimes,
and
C) Classical music when I am driving. I can't say how strongly that I hate the commercials of terrestrial radio and their model.


6) To me SIRI needs to focus on only two major points:

A) Debt, getting out from under the debt rock that could crush them; and
B) Unique Content (no stupid commercials and put on stuff you can't get anywhere else [just don't overpay like Howard Stern]).

(Buying a Chapter 7 sat to add capacity might help too)

Most likely they need to partner with a different content (TV, phone, etc.) provider on sats, You only pay half and somebody like DirectTV can pay half and you beam both signals, capacity sharing makes sense (a reason you might see a deal with SIRI).

Find someway to include the Internet and cellphones (3G & 4G) into more enhancements and expansion of that unique content. Co-marketing agreements and added delivery channels for the channels they have.

I have an idea about that too.

I hope you are right, but I am just not as optimistic as you are as the model stands right now. Unless they execute on some of these things (lower debt, new delivery systems, co-marketing deals) it will be a tough time.]]> Fri, 25 Sep 2009 05:18:27 -0400
1) Isn't the comparison to DirecTV (DTV) (competition aside) only because of the model of putting satellites up?

2) "Try as I might, I cannot find a single instance as an example, where DirecTV, Dish or any cable operator has installation contracts with auto manufacturers."

Wouldn't this be like sat/cable companies doing pre-installs with home/commercial builders? You buy a new house and it comes with a year of TV?

3) "The only true competitive threat to Satellite Radio comes from terrestrial radio companies"

Does this mean the Internet is not anywhere in the mix to compete with satellite & terrestrial radio? And what about 3G & 4G cellphones? They are promising to do unique radio through cell towers aren't they?

Terrestrial radio stations need a new business model (I have one).

4) "Joseph Clayton estimated the potential Satellite Radio market at over 300 million subscribers."

Over what footprint? I can see 30 to 60 million in North America, Sirius XM's current market place. I would be happy with that. But 300m? Wow. I can't see that right now in North America.

5) For the most part I only listen to the radio for three reasons:

A) the Dodgers;
B) the news sometimes,
and
C) Classical music when I am driving. I can't say how strongly that I hate the commercials of terrestrial radio and their model.


6) To me SIRI needs to focus on only two major points:

A) Debt, getting out from under the debt rock that could crush them; and
B) Unique Content (no stupid commercials and put on stuff you can't get anywhere else [just don't overpay like Howard Stern]).

(Buying a Chapter 7 sat to add capacity might help too)

Most likely they need to partner with a different content (TV, phone, etc.) provider on sats, You only pay half and somebody like DirectTV can pay half and you beam both signals, capacity sharing makes sense (a reason you might see a deal with SIRI).

Find someway to include the Internet and cellphones (3G & 4G) into more enhancements and expansion of that unique content. Co-marketing agreements and added delivery channels for the channels they have.

I have an idea about that too.

I hope you are right, but I am just not as optimistic as you are as the model stands right now. Unless they execute on some of these things (lower debt, new delivery systems, co-marketing deals) it will be a tough time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162508-china-natural-gas-deeply-undervalued?source=feed#comment-686888 686888
CORRECTION: I meant "accountants" not "accounts".]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 21:00:27 -0400
CORRECTION: I meant "accountants" not "accounts".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162508-china-natural-gas-deeply-undervalued?source=feed#comment-686878 686878
It is actually cheaper to "go public" by buying a company in bankruptcy than it is to do an IPO and pay for the listing fee.

If you add up all the fees by accounts, attorneys, the exchange, the SEC, it is not cheap to go public from scratch. But, if you can get another company, to pay for all of those fees to do an IPO (with other investors money) and then go Chapter 7. You can purchase those same fees at a discount.

That is just smart business.

Back years ago in New England there were two dress shirt manufactures who fell on hard times, they then merged thinking that would help their poor business model (they couldn't compete on labor because the competition went overseas years before). They eventually had to file for Chapter 7 and a savvy investor bought the bankrupt company to obtain a public listing at a discount. These two dress shirt makers were Hathaway and Berkshire.

#2 Why list in the U.S. over China

If you are a businessman in China, and you can raise $100 million dollars in the U.S. faster and cheaper, wouldn't you do it?

China may do a lot of things better than the U.S., but capital formation is not one of them yet. It is faster and easier to raise a pot of capital here than it is there. How many big hedge funds, big insurance companies, big banks, big retirement plans, big mutual funds do they have in China? If you have to raise the same amount over there, your marketing costs to raise funds would be a lot higher, maybe double. This is money that you could be doing something else with, like building a new CNG station to service your customers.

Bottom line, it is still a better business decision to raise capital here than it is there.

Both of these decisions are smart decisions and show intelligent management at the helm. If you were in China you would look to do the exact same thing that these guys did.

Once you have gone through some early rounds in the U.S., and once your company has matured, along with the Chinese financial markets which broadens the investor base there, you then come back for an offering there. From zero to 10 you use "other peoples" money, ours in the U.S., then once you reach a certain threshold, you come back to the home market.

How they have executed in raising capital and obtaining a public listing have been brilliant. If they can do they same in marketing natural gas to customers in China, this is a winner.


On Sep 21 07:20 PM Ricard wrote:

> Interesting pick, agreed with the majority of the comments that this
> stock has a lot going for it.
>
> However, I am deeply suspicious of Chinese shell companies - it seems
> to be too much trouble to buy a defunct listing just to get hot money
> from the US into China...if anyone has an opinion on this I am all
> ears.]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 20:45:46 -0400
It is actually cheaper to "go public" by buying a company in bankruptcy than it is to do an IPO and pay for the listing fee.

If you add up all the fees by accounts, attorneys, the exchange, the SEC, it is not cheap to go public from scratch. But, if you can get another company, to pay for all of those fees to do an IPO (with other investors money) and then go Chapter 7. You can purchase those same fees at a discount.

That is just smart business.

Back years ago in New England there were two dress shirt manufactures who fell on hard times, they then merged thinking that would help their poor business model (they couldn't compete on labor because the competition went overseas years before). They eventually had to file for Chapter 7 and a savvy investor bought the bankrupt company to obtain a public listing at a discount. These two dress shirt makers were Hathaway and Berkshire.

#2 Why list in the U.S. over China

If you are a businessman in China, and you can raise $100 million dollars in the U.S. faster and cheaper, wouldn't you do it?

China may do a lot of things better than the U.S., but capital formation is not one of them yet. It is faster and easier to raise a pot of capital here than it is there. How many big hedge funds, big insurance companies, big banks, big retirement plans, big mutual funds do they have in China? If you have to raise the same amount over there, your marketing costs to raise funds would be a lot higher, maybe double. This is money that you could be doing something else with, like building a new CNG station to service your customers.

Bottom line, it is still a better business decision to raise capital here than it is there.

Both of these decisions are smart decisions and show intelligent management at the helm. If you were in China you would look to do the exact same thing that these guys did.

Once you have gone through some early rounds in the U.S., and once your company has matured, along with the Chinese financial markets which broadens the investor base there, you then come back for an offering there. From zero to 10 you use "other peoples" money, ours in the U.S., then once you reach a certain threshold, you come back to the home market.

How they have executed in raising capital and obtaining a public listing have been brilliant. If they can do they same in marketing natural gas to customers in China, this is a winner.


On Sep 21 07:20 PM Ricard wrote:

> Interesting pick, agreed with the majority of the comments that this
> stock has a lot going for it.
>
> However, I am deeply suspicious of Chinese shell companies - it seems
> to be too much trouble to buy a defunct listing just to get hot money
> from the US into China...if anyone has an opinion on this I am all
> ears.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148137-carbo-ceramics-value-plus-volatility?source=feed#comment-672966 672966
Tom, if you have my crow ready I guess I start chewing.

That said, I can't help but think there is some froth here and no doubt a short-squeeze happened with that huge short interest that was built up.

So, I am looking for a nice re-tracement for the month of October.

Any thoughts?]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 19:28:12 -0400
Tom, if you have my crow ready I guess I start chewing.

That said, I can't help but think there is some froth here and no doubt a short-squeeze happened with that huge short interest that was built up.

So, I am looking for a nice re-tracement for the month of October.

Any thoughts?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159770-for-dawson-shareholders-now-is-when-to-hold-on?source=feed#comment-669989 669989
Does this come down to "good" and "better"?

While DWSN maybe a good company and a good stock, are there "better" ones?

IE: When is good not good enough?

Standing still and moving forward are two different things.]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:43:40 -0400
Does this come down to "good" and "better"?

While DWSN maybe a good company and a good stock, are there "better" ones?

IE: When is good not good enough?

Standing still and moving forward are two different things.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160605-marvell-will-continue-to-rise-with-or-without-samsung?source=feed#comment-669950 669950
The only thing that makes sense to me is: somebody was sitting on a big inventory of RMBS (like PRIMECAP Management) and wanted to move some of it.

This makes more sense to me:

ARM Holdings plc (ADR) (NASDAQ:ARMH)

ARMH and RMBS walking down the isle I can get my head around.

Two CDIP shops in two different areas that complement each other and cut their back-offices needs in half.

That I can wrap my little mind around...]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:08:04 -0400
The only thing that makes sense to me is: somebody was sitting on a big inventory of RMBS (like PRIMECAP Management) and wanted to move some of it.

This makes more sense to me:

ARM Holdings plc (ADR) (NASDAQ:ARMH)

ARMH and RMBS walking down the isle I can get my head around.

Two CDIP shops in two different areas that complement each other and cut their back-offices needs in half.

That I can wrap my little mind around...]]>