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Frank Lind

Frank Lind
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  • Auxilio: Investors Should Focus On The Bigger Picture [View article]
    I agree with the basic thrust of your argument.

    Two questions. (or has the CEO explicitly answered these questions)

    1. How do you know the customers won't provide stronger price concessions as Auxilio's margins expand toward the end of the contract. They also know Auxilio margins expand at this point. What is to stop them from threatening to walk and go to another vendor? I don't see what leverage Auxilio has in such negotiations (considering hospitals are so cost-conscious now)

    2. What is the competitive landscape like in their software security business. I would imagine there would a lot of other providers here, who ae possibly already in the hospitals they are targeting.
    Aug 20, 2015. 06:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mer Telemanagement: Vexigo Acquisition Brings A Return To Profitability And Upside Potential [View article]
    Can you explain what you mean here in more detail?

    "The problem? - this is a simple hack that going to be blocked soon"
    May 23, 2015. 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parkit Enterprise: JV Catalyst Achieved, Market Missing Forest For Trees [View article]
    Great article uncap.

    The insider purchases were the final killer point for me.
    Whatever the final %age of the terms turn out to be - and even at low assumptions PKT seems to be worth considerably more than it is now.
    Insiders knew the terms, and they bought more immediately after the JV was announced on 23rd of April.
    http://bit.ly/1GRs2p3%20|%20Parkit%20Enterp...
    May 2, 2015. 11:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Telkonet: A Misunderstood Distressed Stock [View article]
    Nice article John.

    What do you expect top-line revenue growth to be in 2015?
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Health Care Organization Delivers A Big Early Christmas Present [View article]
    On my recent call with Kubota, he indicated they have hired a couple of new salespeople and are 'gearing up' to expand. This obviously necessitates more of a spending money to make money approach. I was very impressed with him as a person. He prioritizes shareholders and does not over promise. One of the better CEOs in the micro-cap space - imo.
    Nov 30, 2014. 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Pacific Health Care Organization Earnings Hit New Records Across The Board [View article]
    Link to my valuation of PFHO under conservative assumptions.

    http://bit.ly/1yfOPCV
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Planar Systems - Mr. Market's Fat Pitch Selling Opportunity [View article]
    Interesting write-up. Thank-you
    But I am not so sure this won't grow nicely for at least another year or two.

    Partly because of the very rapid growth of digital signage, Planars good execution so far and partly because I noticed the CEO has consistently low-balled guidance this year.

    q1 2015 guiding for 15c to 18c (based on the history will probably be higher)
    q4 2014 14c (guided for 8c to 10c)
    q3 2014 5c (guided for 0-3)
    q2 2014 3c (guided for 0-2)

    So I think, it is a risky short based on the guidance he has given.
    You would need to hope they either don't make their guidance this quarter, which is unlikely because the CEO would have had good visibility into this q, or that competition swallows them up rather quickly. But I think it might be longer than you think. But I am not willing to bet on it...yet.

    Finally, you said their non-digital signage declined more than 10% YoY.
    Yet, when I actually checked this claim, I found it not to be the case.
    In fact, while the other side will eventually decline and I don't claim it to be a great business, it grew by 2% Yoy.

    http://bit.ly/1sLWipw
    Nov 14, 2014. 05:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperCom: Overvalued By Almost 60% [View article]
    So, by what you saying - their revenue is not truly recurring, because it is at the OPTION of the govt as to whether they continue it or not. (it can be stopped anytime)

    This is not what the company has said. They said it was recurring at 20% for years on end.

    No one, including any long I have talked to, can answer this question clearly without making a whole host of assumptions which are unconfirmed by management (i.e., does the part designated as recurring include follow on contract implementation within the definition of recurring?)
    Nov 14, 2014. 01:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperCom: Overvalued By Almost 60% [View article]
    Can you post their answer to me platonicbomb?
    Nov 13, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperCom: Overvalued By Almost 60% [View article]
    I could not get proper clarification from management as to whether the definition of recurring includes revenue from follow-on contract implementations (as Jay argues) or is truly recurring, as in it is ALL off the base of the initial large contract.
    Their lack of clarity on this makes me uncomfortable.
    I sold some time back.
    Nov 12, 2014. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Supercom's Q3 Results Confirm Key Points Of My Bear Thesis [View article]
    I could not get proper clarification from management as to whether the definition of recurring includes revenue from follow-on contract implemetations (as Jay argues) or is truly recurring, as in it is ALL off the base of the initial large contract.
    Their lack of clarity on this makes me uncomfortable.
    I sold some time back.
    Nov 12, 2014. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Supercom's Q3 Results Confirm Key Points Of My Bear Thesis [View article]
    So, in Israel, you can talk about a major acquisition you might be going to do, talk about the projected revenues from it........... before you have actually done it? Seems odd.
    Nov 7, 2014. 05:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperCom: Overvalued By Almost 60% [View article]
    I would add to the suggestions to Jay to actually contact IR or management and put forward his argument over the perceived lack of recurring revenue using the numbers he uses.

    Jay, do you intend to do this?

    Let us know what you find.
    Nov 4, 2014. 03:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperCom: Overvalued By Almost 60% [View article]
    One more comment.
    You claim a shrinking EID market will lead to SPCB struggling to win new contracts.

    Your table states the value of the EID market ranging from a value of 8 - 10 BILLION.
    SPCB's ttm Revenue is 17.2 million.

    Do you think they are going to struggle to get a piece of this?

    Accuity. http://bit.ly/1p6dSZB
    This rapidly evolving dominance of eIDs reflects the global drive towards eGovernment and eCommerce services enabled by electronic identities. This transformation will provide substantial opportunities as national, regional, and global transaction infrastructures secured by a trusted eID platform emerge over the next five years.
    Oct 30, 2014. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperCom: Overvalued By Almost 60% [View article]
    You have drastically underestimated the amount of recurring revenue that this company earns per contract won. The table you have made is based on false assumptions and not from any company filing.

    You said - “As you can see, just 8% of the Company's 1H 2014 revenue came from annual recurring revenue.” You say 8%.

    This directly contradicts the company’s PRs and CCs for both Q1 and Q2 of this year.

    Q1
    2014 Q1 Press Release http://1.usa.gov/1E5i7Ys

    “Our revenues in the quarter were primarily recurring revenue. This, in combination with our newly awarded contracts, underlies our expectations of strong revenue growth and high levels of profitability in the coming quarters. In addition, in the coming months we hope to unleash further revenue potential from our fast growing pipeline of bids and proposals.”

    Primarily
    .
    Q1 CC at 6.35 http://bit.ly/1AXPMmg
    “Putting this all together, combined with our current base of 5.3 million dollars of mostly recurring revenue....”

    Mostly.

    2014 Q2 CC
    http://bit.ly/1p693PX

    Bob Schnell - Dougherty & Co.Good morning, good afternoon, and congratulations on a very nice quarter. To start off, of the $7.1 million or so in revenue, what percentage of that would you deem to be recurring in nature?

    Arie Trabelsi - President, Chief Executive Officer
    Okay, generally we do not assign the mix of revenue, but we’d say that (indiscernible) 60 to 80% is recurring revenue in the quarter.

    60-80%

    Ryan Parker - Equity Brief Capital Management Is the 60 to 80% in recurring revenue, is that still the case in C2? Arie Trabelsi -
    President, Chief Executive Officer Yes.

    Yes.

    My investment in SPCB is based on the growing stream of recurring revenue. The initial contracts are the gateway to this. One time revenue is lumpy for sure, but it is the recurring revenue that is the most relevant - by far
    Management has repeatedly stated 5 years of recurring as low number. It is very sticky and high margin 80%+ It is therefore important that the recurring revenue structure is properly understood before publishing an SA Pro article.
    Oct 30, 2014. 08:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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