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rigel
15 Comments
Not Much Meat on Pilgrim's Pride's Bones
Peak Theory, Applied To Inflation
I'll answer that question for you: because you feel like waiting for prices to come down more. Is that accurate?
Your desire to wait for a crash somewhere is a sign that you think asset prices are going to continue falling. That's a defining characteristic of deflationary times, not inflationary.
The Strange Case of Dr. GLD & Mr. Bullion
I'm not making a bullish case for gold, but I am saying that you shouldn't read too much into a small (volume wise) and illiquid market. The headlines for gold are mixed, making a claim of a "contrarian" play simply a rationalization for a gamble. If you have other fundamental or technical reasons to be bearish on gold, that's fine, but let those be the justification for your trade. Here, I'll give you some reasons:
Bearish: Dollar has been declining for a while under the perception that other currencies would be shielded from the US decline. Decoupling was fantasy, the whole world is going to hell, so on a relative basis, the dollar is going to rise. Also, those invested in gold were over-leveraged, and the de-leveraging process is going to sink gold further.
Bullish: All currencies are going to hell, so even if the dollar outperforms relative to other fiat currencies, its purchasing power relative to commodities is going to be weaker (after the painful de-leveraging runs its course). Commodities are in a long secular bull market, and this is only a pothole in the road up. Furthermore, gold can be treated as a currency that can't be weakened by fiat.
Personally, I think that demand for gold will increase. The supply side of gold is well understood (close enough to constant).
The Case for Wiping Out Fannie and Freddie Shareholders
Putting $1T Subprime Mortgage Losses in Perspective
That said, subprime is a small fraction of real estate. Prime defaults are currently on the rise. When you add everything up (all housing losses, stock losses, and government debt used in bailouts), we'll see how things compare. In the end, it's pretty obvious that $1T really is a drop in the bucket.
Did the E*Trade Baby Pay Off?
Will Gold Break Out?
The monetary policy of the fed is almost irrelevant without any fiscal restraint in the legislative and executive branches. I wonder if the taxpayers would be willing to pay extra taxes this year to fund accounting classes for the government?
U.S. Markets: A Ton of Doubt Calls for Caution
Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook
The Reverse Wealth Effect
China has a lot of US treasuries and manufactures a lot of US goods. It's certainly not in their best interest to help orchestrate a US downfall.
The Online Brokerage Wars: E*Trade Offers Compelling Risk/Reward
Just because you are long ETFC doesn't mean you have to make irrational arguments to make you feel better about your position. If you don't understand the risk (and are certain that it's a "sure thing"), assume you are missing something.
Disclosure: Long ETFC
E*Trade Covered Call Idea
Of course, jbmaria may be voicing legitimate concerns. It doesn't really matter (well, unless the insolvency thing carries out). As long as people are afraid, the Longs can pick up ETFC at a discount. However, if you are looking for a pop, it has to come from something that significantly alters the perception of insolvency risk.
Yes, I am greatly simplifying the problem (jbmaria may be concerned about losses, not insolvency), but it's a lot harder to discuss this point using probability densities than it is to use a simple solvent/insolvent perception model.
Oh, and I am long ETFC and bought additional Jan 10 ITM LEAPS. I'm obviously a believer in their solvency. I won't do a covered call right now because I am not looking to cut my risk on the position.
Will Apple Be Dragged Kicking and Screaming to the Business Market?
I am a programmer. I've done programming on many platforms, but have the longest run on windows. That said, I use a MacBook (which replaced a powerbook before it) every day now, even though I am doing consulting for a windows business. XCode is easy enough to use for C and C++ work, but not as good as Visual Studio. On the other hand, for Objective C, it's an absolute dream, better than Visual Basic or C# environments. That's my opinion. Remember, Objective C came from the NeXT boxes, and was designed for enterprise applications.
I've also done some Java work, but don't use XCode for that. I use Eclipse, which doesn't seem to run as well on a mac as on windows, but it is the same environment. I've recently done Ruby on Rails work, for which the Mac is the development platform of choice.
Oh, and a friend of mine that works for a network security research company says his shop is all Macs for developer machines (Linux servers, though).
Liquidity Isn't Apple Pie
In response to iThinkBig, I don't see how your interactions with VC firms is a liquidity issue. So many "sure thing" investments existed in the last couple years, that your risk/reward profile wasn't competitive. Now it's obviously quite attractice, as your risk has dropped and many of those "sure things" have soured.
Regulation Fever and the Banking Sector