rigel's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/189611/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/93877-not-much-meat-on-pilgrim-s-pride-s-bones?source=feed#comment-246259 246259 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:20:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92216-peak-theory-applied-to-inflation?source=feed#comment-236772 236772
I'll answer that question for you: because you feel like waiting for prices to come down more. Is that accurate?

Your desire to wait for a crash somewhere is a sign that you think asset prices are going to continue falling. That's a defining characteristic of deflationary times, not inflationary.]]> Fri, 22 Aug 2008 16:12:09 -0400
I'll answer that question for you: because you feel like waiting for prices to come down more. Is that accurate?

Your desire to wait for a crash somewhere is a sign that you think asset prices are going to continue falling. That's a defining characteristic of deflationary times, not inflationary.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92191-the-strange-case-of-dr-gld-mr-bullion?source=feed#comment-236717 236717
I'm not making a bullish case for gold, but I am saying that you shouldn't read too much into a small (volume wise) and illiquid market. The headlines for gold are mixed, making a claim of a "contrarian" play simply a rationalization for a gamble. If you have other fundamental or technical reasons to be bearish on gold, that's fine, but let those be the justification for your trade. Here, I'll give you some reasons:

Bearish: Dollar has been declining for a while under the perception that other currencies would be shielded from the US decline. Decoupling was fantasy, the whole world is going to hell, so on a relative basis, the dollar is going to rise. Also, those invested in gold were over-leveraged, and the de-leveraging process is going to sink gold further.

Bullish: All currencies are going to hell, so even if the dollar outperforms relative to other fiat currencies, its purchasing power relative to commodities is going to be weaker (after the painful de-leveraging runs its course). Commodities are in a long secular bull market, and this is only a pothole in the road up. Furthermore, gold can be treated as a currency that can't be weakened by fiat.

Personally, I think that demand for gold will increase. The supply side of gold is well understood (close enough to constant).]]> Fri, 22 Aug 2008 14:52:51 -0400
I'm not making a bullish case for gold, but I am saying that you shouldn't read too much into a small (volume wise) and illiquid market. The headlines for gold are mixed, making a claim of a "contrarian" play simply a rationalization for a gamble. If you have other fundamental or technical reasons to be bearish on gold, that's fine, but let those be the justification for your trade. Here, I'll give you some reasons:

Bearish: Dollar has been declining for a while under the perception that other currencies would be shielded from the US decline. Decoupling was fantasy, the whole world is going to hell, so on a relative basis, the dollar is going to rise. Also, those invested in gold were over-leveraged, and the de-leveraging process is going to sink gold further.

Bullish: All currencies are going to hell, so even if the dollar outperforms relative to other fiat currencies, its purchasing power relative to commodities is going to be weaker (after the painful de-leveraging runs its course). Commodities are in a long secular bull market, and this is only a pothole in the road up. Furthermore, gold can be treated as a currency that can't be weakened by fiat.

Personally, I think that demand for gold will increase. The supply side of gold is well understood (close enough to constant).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84917-the-case-for-wiping-out-fannie-and-freddie-shareholders?source=feed#comment-205546 205546 Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:19:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84672-putting-1t-subprime-mortgage-losses-in-perspective?source=feed#comment-203371 203371
That said, subprime is a small fraction of real estate. Prime defaults are currently on the rise. When you add everything up (all housing losses, stock losses, and government debt used in bailouts), we'll see how things compare. In the end, it's pretty obvious that $1T really is a drop in the bucket.]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:31:46 -0400
That said, subprime is a small fraction of real estate. Prime defaults are currently on the rise. When you add everything up (all housing losses, stock losses, and government debt used in bailouts), we'll see how things compare. In the end, it's pretty obvious that $1T really is a drop in the bucket.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83141-did-the-e-trade-baby-pay-off?source=feed#comment-195999 195999 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:53:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82302-will-gold-break-out?source=feed#comment-191524 191524 The monetary policy of the fed is almost irrelevant without any fiscal restraint in the legislative and executive branches. I wonder if the taxpayers would be willing to pay extra taxes this year to fund accounting classes for the government?]]> Tue, 24 Jun 2008 01:40:53 -0400 The monetary policy of the fed is almost irrelevant without any fiscal restraint in the legislative and executive branches. I wonder if the taxpayers would be willing to pay extra taxes this year to fund accounting classes for the government?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82242-u-s-markets-a-ton-of-doubt-calls-for-caution?source=feed#comment-191516 191516 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 01:13:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80735-options-trader-tuesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-182669 182669 Tue, 10 Jun 2008 13:25:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80597-the-reverse-wealth-effect?source=feed#comment-182629 182629
China has a lot of US treasuries and manufactures a lot of US goods. It's certainly not in their best interest to help orchestrate a US downfall. ]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 12:50:23 -0400
China has a lot of US treasuries and manufactures a lot of US goods. It's certainly not in their best interest to help orchestrate a US downfall. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78935-the-online-brokerage-wars-e-trade-offers-compelling-risk-reward?source=feed#comment-176140 176140
Just because you are long ETFC doesn't mean you have to make irrational arguments to make you feel better about your position. If you don't understand the risk (and are certain that it's a "sure thing"), assume you are missing something.

Disclosure: Long ETFC]]> Thu, 29 May 2008 13:34:44 -0400
Just because you are long ETFC doesn't mean you have to make irrational arguments to make you feel better about your position. If you don't understand the risk (and are certain that it's a "sure thing"), assume you are missing something.

Disclosure: Long ETFC]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77239-will-apple-be-dragged-kicking-and-screaming-to-the-business-market?source=feed#comment-168231 168231
I am a programmer. I've done programming on many platforms, but have the longest run on windows. That said, I use a MacBook (which replaced a powerbook before it) every day now, even though I am doing consulting for a windows business. XCode is easy enough to use for C and C++ work, but not as good as Visual Studio. On the other hand, for Objective C, it's an absolute dream, better than Visual Basic or C# environments. That's my opinion. Remember, Objective C came from the NeXT boxes, and was designed for enterprise applications.

I've also done some Java work, but don't use XCode for that. I use Eclipse, which doesn't seem to run as well on a mac as on windows, but it is the same environment. I've recently done Ruby on Rails work, for which the Mac is the development platform of choice.

Oh, and a friend of mine that works for a network security research company says his shop is all Macs for developer machines (Linux servers, though).]]> Thu, 15 May 2008 14:18:33 -0400
I am a programmer. I've done programming on many platforms, but have the longest run on windows. That said, I use a MacBook (which replaced a powerbook before it) every day now, even though I am doing consulting for a windows business. XCode is easy enough to use for C and C++ work, but not as good as Visual Studio. On the other hand, for Objective C, it's an absolute dream, better than Visual Basic or C# environments. That's my opinion. Remember, Objective C came from the NeXT boxes, and was designed for enterprise applications.

I've also done some Java work, but don't use XCode for that. I use Eclipse, which doesn't seem to run as well on a mac as on windows, but it is the same environment. I've recently done Ruby on Rails work, for which the Mac is the development platform of choice.

Oh, and a friend of mine that works for a network security research company says his shop is all Macs for developer machines (Linux servers, though).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75653-liquidity-isn-t-apple-pie?source=feed#comment-162811 162811
In response to iThinkBig, I don't see how your interactions with VC firms is a liquidity issue. So many "sure thing" investments existed in the last couple years, that your risk/reward profile wasn't competitive. Now it's obviously quite attractice, as your risk has dropped and many of those "sure things" have soured.]]> Tue, 06 May 2008 14:27:48 -0400
In response to iThinkBig, I don't see how your interactions with VC firms is a liquidity issue. So many "sure thing" investments existed in the last couple years, that your risk/reward profile wasn't competitive. Now it's obviously quite attractice, as your risk has dropped and many of those "sure things" have soured.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75810-regulation-fever-and-the-banking-sector?source=feed#comment-162798 162798 Tue, 06 May 2008 14:00:48 -0400