MILESCFA

Think Twice: How People Are Fooled by Irrelevant Data

We've lost our math skills. I've read where 9 out of every 7 people can't do fractions!

:-)

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Canadian Dollar Rattled by Shanghai Meltdown, Interventionist Talk

On Aug 18 12:50 PM Uncle Pie wrote:

> I don't know about "hanging man" candlestick chart patterns, but I do know that Canada has: No wars, No banking crisis, No energy crisis and No healthcare crisis....

Canada is one of America's closest military allies, so please ask the family's of the 127+ Canadian soldiers who've died in Afghanistan since 2002 if they are involved in a war.

Admittedly - it seems - Canadian banks are in much better shape than US banks, but I don't know Canadian accounting (mark-to-market?) and I've read the Canadian government has guaranteed 125 billion in the last couple of years, but since it's a guarantee it isn't on the Canadian bank's books. Who knows? Not me, but I doubt Uncle Pie knows either. The Canadan government is also buying mortgages from their banks but the C.gvt charges such high fees that the C.banks are NOT selling.

Everyone knows Canada does not have an energy crisis but it's because Canada's economy is a "commodity economy", so that statement is like saying the middle east has no shortage of sand. I bet the Candian lumber industry is hurting since the US is not building so many houses. When China stocks stockpiling commodities, I would not want to be in the Canadian commodities business.

As for health care, do you really want Canada's health care system (20/20 John Stossel's report)... abcnews.go.com/video/p...

Finally, if commodites are going up, the Candian dollar is going up.

I don't win any points being critical of other commentators, but it's an attempt at constructive criticism when I see people shooting from the hips(?). Admittedly, I'm a fiscal conservative because I've seen very few government programs that work well, because if they do, the politicians say "This works... let's expand it." They do until "the Peter Principal" comes into effect.

As Dr. Milton Friedman like to say, "If a government were put in charge of the Sahara Desert, within five years they’d have a shortage of sand."

Is VIX Being Artificially Depressed by Increased Use of SPXU?

"The continued drop in the VIX below the 25.00 level caught a number of traders by surprise, including this writer."...

I too find the VIX drop a bit unbelieveable, but instead of trying to justify my disbelief, I looked at another volatility measure. I looked at the volatility of the SPX by using the "average true range". I looked at 10, 14 and even 60 days that more closely resembles the VIX calculation.

The "ATR" of the SPX has dropped much more rapidly than the VIX. It is below levels of 2008 and is nearing the lows of late 2007. The VIX has NOT broken below its 2008 levels.This implies to me that the VIX drop is justified and may well continue.

My perception is that investors are, like usual, "anchoring", which is forming beliefs based on recent "events" (prices).

Credit Crisis Watch: Gaining Positive Traction?

Your articles are always an excellent source of spread info. I enjoy seeing so many doubters, but I think I'd like to see more (ergo, capitulation?).

The only caveat I see is the excess reserves levels; I'd like to see them turn as an indication that lending is beginning, but won't they also turn given the likelyhood of mass writeoffs in this periods earnings reports?

I would appreciate if you'd throw some lending level charts into your columns. I know the Fed Banks release this info periodically, but is there a monthly or weekly source?

Thank you.

The Humpty Dumpty Economy

On CNBC or Bloomberg showing a chart of total labor costs had the Big 3 (whoops, 2!) around $75/hr while the Asians were around $50. Detroit has older, more expensive AND MORE RETIRED workers. Here in the south, the auto workers are young and healthy and not yet retired.

The ONLY problem with management is they have NOT drastically cut back. How many brands does GM have now, 20, 30, 40... :-) ? As countires around the world have industrialized, they start car companies (and airlines); it's a vanity thing... and US management is just as vain.

On Nov 16 07:33 AM constructe wrote:

> 100% agree on your thoughts on the auto industry. However, wage is
> not the problem. Japan pays about 50% higher wages, makes more efficient,
> nicer, more reliable, and cheaper cars. Management is the problem.
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The Baltic Dry Index: One Economic Indicator Worth Tracking

And CNBC (?) said it was up today, making 4 days in a row!

Beginning a Mini Bull Run; Be Prepared for Another Dip

To understand this valid observation, visit crestmontresearch.com. In particular, I recommend the links below; however, the site is primarily updated yearly, with some semi-annual updates (and a rare interim report), so even though it may take a while to review all their info, you don't have to do it often (there's even a book that explains it):

crestmontresearch.com/...

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