MILESCFA

John Hussman's Peak PE Ratio as a Long Term Market Indicator

Hussman probably got the idea from CrestmontResearch.com (Shiller may have too). My only instablog covers this topic in greater detail. Looking at my/Crestmont info. buy the heck out of it below a PE of 10x and be very, very careful above 20x... LIKE NOW.

Collapsing Volatility: ETF Opportunity

ChrisMck - if volatility been 25% back on 3/9 then the call would have sold for $45 rather than $75 (an approx. 36% drop in value due to the change in volatility)...

but the caveat is that you typically don't want to be buying options when volatility is really high (unless you expect higher volatility).

I went long out-the-money vertical call spreads using LEAPS around the March low and discovered one thing missing in MOST option articles - liquidity. My LEAP trades were fairly illiquid and I have to "give in" when trying to close them. Several of the ETFs in the list above have options that "trade by appointment", so ALWAYS be aware of option liquidity.

Canadian Dollar Rattled by Shanghai Meltdown, Interventionist Talk

On Aug 18 12:50 PM Uncle Pie wrote:

> I don't know about "hanging man" candlestick chart patterns, but I do know that Canada has: No wars, No banking crisis, No energy crisis and No healthcare crisis....

Canada is one of America's closest military allies, so please ask the family's of the 127+ Canadian soldiers who've died in Afghanistan since 2002 if they are involved in a war.

Admittedly - it seems - Canadian banks are in much better shape than US banks, but I don't know Canadian accounting (mark-to-market?) and I've read the Canadian government has guaranteed 125 billion in the last couple of years, but since it's a guarantee it isn't on the Canadian bank's books. Who knows? Not me, but I doubt Uncle Pie knows either. The Canadan government is also buying mortgages from their banks but the C.gvt charges such high fees that the C.banks are NOT selling.

Everyone knows Canada does not have an energy crisis but it's because Canada's economy is a "commodity economy", so that statement is like saying the middle east has no shortage of sand. I bet the Candian lumber industry is hurting since the US is not building so many houses. When China stocks stockpiling commodities, I would not want to be in the Canadian commodities business.

As for health care, do you really want Canada's health care system (20/20 John Stossel's report)... abcnews.go.com/video/p...

Finally, if commodites are going up, the Candian dollar is going up.

I don't win any points being critical of other commentators, but it's an attempt at constructive criticism when I see people shooting from the hips(?). Admittedly, I'm a fiscal conservative because I've seen very few government programs that work well, because if they do, the politicians say "This works... let's expand it." They do until "the Peter Principal" comes into effect.

As Dr. Milton Friedman like to say, "If a government were put in charge of the Sahara Desert, within five years they’d have a shortage of sand."