bobbobwhite

Charlie Gasparino: Another Crash 'Has to Happen Again'

If the financial markets could only be lawfully affected by actual business events, cycles and markets found in typical business practices/operations, perhaps then they would be less affected by what is running and ruining things there today, which is 99% of the total activity....and that is the hype of manufactured news, gov't meddling and deregulation, gov't/business incestuous collusion, et al, that have no place in real business markets. We would still have the greed, deception and crime of business operation that we have always had, but with sincere and honorable gov't regulation by uncompromised persons this would be dutifully dealt with to the full extent of applicable laws. And, if a company fails, it fails. If they all fail, they all fail. No gov't(taxpayer) help. This is the only cure to allow full and honest recovery.

This will never happen, of course, but it is one of my fondest wishes. What a dreamer I am, but I just can't help it.

Why Junk Bond ETFs Have Been Cleaning Up

Have HYD and JNK plus CMO, also NGLS and BTE for energy divivie stocks.

Satisfied with yield over growth for now.

Earnings Season: The Car Is Shiny, But Look Under the Hood

Yeah, it is so deceptive to use "50% up" like it means something way more than it is. Remember, that 50% pop was on a greatly reduced figure(and no certainty that it will last). A $100 stock falling to $10 is a 90% drop, but a $5 pop up on that same $10 stock is up 50%. Wow! ......Not. Don't be like fund managers and try to make that 50% pop "seem" to be worth more than half of the initial 90% drop. Never was, never will be. Huge difference.


On Nov 04 11:03 AM jdl51 wrote:

> Well, I've always been told that the markets are forward looking.
> We've gone up over 50% in six months. The markets anticipated improved
> earnings, they're here and now we're waiting for what's next. If
> the economy continues to improve, job cuts are trending down and
> are expected to show growth shortly after the first of the year,
> then we'll start the next leg up.

Riding the Rails: Why BNI Was Berkshire's Best Bet - And Vintage Buffett

Yours is the closest to any reply I could make, and you already said it. Buffett way overpaid for his John Wayne-style, early-American patriotism that seems more emotion based than reason based this time. And, relative to railroad transport, America should use its vast NG resources before using coal, and leave coal safely in the ground until tech improves the burning systems necessary to allow cleaner air.

Also, I have noticed over the past few years that Warren is acting more on emotions as he ages. That is a typical aging pattern but is also a dangerous and risky departure for him. I do not think this buy will be a great thing for Berkshire, not terrible, just a ho-hum one over time and certainly not worth the price paid in returns given.

On Nov 04 12:10 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> My comment is Warren Buffet has good big picture view, bad timing
> and bad pricing. Every one in the world has known for two years that
> Warren Buffett loves railways. He openly talked about it more than
> two years ago. So why why he picks a time to pay nearly the higest
> price? Way over-paid.
>
> If he likes railway, Chinese railways are way much better play. The
> capacity of China's railways transportation is stretched tot he extreme.
> Whole America's railway system has excessive capacity that is idled.
>
>
> If he likes commodity and transportation play, he should be buying
> coal mines, and he should be buying dry bulk shippers. Both sectors
> are dirt cheap compare with railways.
>
> seekingalpha.com/autho...
>
> I am afraid Warren Buffett is getting too old to calculate relative
> valuations correctly. There are so many good under-valued assets
> around at dirt cheap price. Railway will be the last thing I will
> pick up. It's going to be good, but just not as good as other things.

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

What you said was what I was thinking as I read this article: it depends on where the house is. SF, LA, LV and Pee-hoenix have way different housing prices and activity relative to income than central Kansas does, and etc. It is good sense to stick to specific markets when making predictions, and not put the doughnuts in with the dumplings.

On Nov 02 09:59 AM John Galt wrote:

> I read a Goldman economist said that housing prices would nationally
> be 5% lower if the government didn't get involved. So the prices
> in Nebraska, South Dakota, Idaho might be similar to what they are
> now, but the prices in say Miami, Vegas and Phoenix might be 20%
> lower... Who knows what the real number is, but 5% is pretty noteworthy.
> That also doesn't factor in that housing prices still might go even
> lower ( I think they will).
>
> I've been probably the biggest bear you could find on housing, but
> I don't think prices will fall another 43%.

How Much Did 'Cash for Clunkers' Cost?

"We are your gov't and we can delay anything until whenever. We can do work or not and we don't care about what you think of us and we don't have to answer to anyone. But, be sure you send us your entire tax obligation which is, of course, the only obligation we respect. Do it today."

How Much Did 'Cash for Clunkers' Cost?

Ever held a gov't job of any level? What you stated is its modus operandi on every day of the week, no matter what happens.

"Why do today what you can put off indefinitely? We're the gov't, we don't have to care what they say or answer to anyone for anything."


On Nov 01 11:17 AM D. McHattie wrote:

> White House economist Jared Bernstein: "In other words, I'm sure
> that some of those sales were pulled forward...we really need that
> growth now. Pulling sales forward is actually helpful."
>
> This statement says a lot about this administration's approach to
> the economy.
>
> Borrow growth from the future. Kick the can down the road. Cross
> that bridge when we come to it. Why do today what we can put off
> until tomorrow.
>
> Is this administration so unforgivably stunned that it actually thinks
> this is a sound approach?

George Soros: The Guru Outlook

Always pay close attention to Soros, one of the smartest investors ever. Buffett gets all the headlines but Soros is the genius of the two and the one who made that egoist Jim Rogers all of his money back in the 70's, contrary to what one may read in the bloated bragging of Roger's claims that he did it himself.

When Soros talks, it pays well to listen and learn. When Rogers talks, it pays to run out the door before he takes your money.

Europe Is Breaking Up Its 'Too Big to Fail' Banks

How much will Goldman pay our crooked gov't officials to NOT consider doing the same thing? And, JPM, and BofA, and MS.............

Not to the taxpayers, but to them personally. Count on it.

Who Thinks This Recession Is Over?

In a look at the big picture instead of these macro views that can be interpreted as one wishes, the American society bell-shapped curve of growth has peaked and we are now falling down the other side. We will never again be the power we once were, mainly due to the rot of privilege that has been the root of all failed civilizations for at least 6000 years.

Due to this rot, all eras and countries have their peaks, i.e., Egypt, Greece, Rome, Europe.....first Spain, then France( after 1812) and Britain (after WW1), and now America in 2009. Also, the world art bell-shaped growth curve peaked at the inception of the industrial revolution, with the start of factory production, in the year 1800 and slowly tailed off, and as a result will never again be anywhere near that level. Our progressive modern ways killed it.

It happens in all human life and eras, no use fighting it or denying it. Learn to live with it and within it as best you can. It is here to stay.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Couldn't have written your comment better myself. Untold millions of USA high paying, non-productive gov't and service industry "jobs" are really harming us terribly in huge overhead costs for what they truly accomplish, as most of the gov't and service jobs prevalent now produce primarily lots of paper landfill and its cyber space equivalent, and not much else of real value relative to their cost. Too much in, too little out.

And, companies complaining that lowered pay will cost them their best employees to higher paying, unrestricted companies should recognize that losing them is really a blessing in disguise. The executives they stand to lose are the ones who created our economic crisis in the first place, as giant money rewards were always their primary motivation and not the quality and need of their products. Good riddance to those self centered non-producers.

On Oct 23 09:15 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> A basic problem is that there are too many people getting paid for
> doing non-jobs and non-productive jobs: the list includes many politicians,
> State and Federal workers, bank, insurance and financial company
> workers and the many media commentators who are so fond of telling
> us what needs to be done for the economy to improve.
>
> Add to this the exorbitant pay that is now common in many companies
> for higher and highest level staff and paid on the excuse that they
> need to retain the best people, and it is no wonder that the greed
> of these non-producers has caused a downturn from which it will years
> to recover.
>
> Token gestures to restrict pay for a certain group is just not enough.
> Pay differentials from base to peak need to be far less than they
> are, and based on real productiveness and genuine capability, not
> just paid to someone just because they've reached a level where excessive
> pay is the norm regardless of the quality of the person's real personal
> contribution.

The Secret Paulson-Goldman Meeting

It doesn't take too much brainpower to see that when gov't forbidden behavior is undertaken and the consequences are written only to show strong official position but are not acted upon, nothing untoward will happen to those in power when that so-called forbidden behavior is committed by them.

Paulson and all the Wall Street others in Washington know that they are nearly untouchable and thus do whatever they want in the gov't of today, short of anything sexual, which is still taboo in America. The Nixon thing was 35 years ago and great lessons on how not to get caught were learned from it and are extensively practiced today. That less sophisticated 70's era in our country's morality will never again be seen as it is actively worked by our gov't so that it is never seen again. The system must collapse for any change to occur, and that time is coming.

Will Housing Data Show Improvement This Week?

One thing not debated enough is how/why the gov't is pushing the extremely harsh realities of this economic mess out further and further on its improbably infinite time line, as if that would soften what has to eventually happen. That soft landing everyone wants will not happen, and the roof will fall in(sorry, housing industry) at some future point, probably after the present crop of failed politicans leaves office. It will be worse than it was in 2008. Prepare.

Why I'm Not Shorting Diedrich Coffee

Know a woman who spends $1k a year in Starbucks. In a 40 year work span, that's $40k bucks that could have been invested. I probably spent no more than $1k total in the last 40 years on coffee.

Spending like she does on Starbucks-type coffee is the new paradigm for having too much money. Used to be cocaine, but is coffee really any different? Just the words.

Why I'm Not Shorting Diedrich Coffee

Know a woman who spends $1k a year in Starbucks. In a 40 year work span, that's $40k bucks that could have been invested. I probably spent no more than $1k total in the last 40 years on coffee.

Spending like she does on Starbucks-type coffee is the new paradigm for of having too much money. Used to be cocaine, but is coffee really any different? Just the words.