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tatham

tatham
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  • Bank Of America: Another Opportunity To Buy Low Now [View article]
    BAC just downgraded today by JMP Securities.

    If you are a sensible investor, avoid this stock and buy at the bottom. We are only half way there. A buy at anything below $4 is always going to be better than a buy at $7. It would be worse percentage-wise than having bought FB at its IPO price.
    Jun 1 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    I too am long STD in various formats (stock, long calls and short puts), but I think right now is a time to pause any additional stock-building. I have no doubt that STD can bounce back strongly as soon as the situation appears to receive even remote assistance.

    A comment today in the FT makes me thing that we have quite a bit more downside (and hence more attractive $ averaging opportunities) to come:

    "... foreign investors were selling Spanish assets, while Spanish banks were increasing their holdings of domestic bonds, helped by cash accessed through the ECB’s three-year liquidity operations.
    “My concern is that we haven’t yet seen the most recent numbers, which could be far worse,” said Raj Badiani, an economist at IHS Global Insight. “We are seeing a perfect storm.”

    http://on.ft.com/KPzS2X
    Jun 1 05:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    We'll find out soon enough - they are about to audit (independently) all the large Spanish banks. They obviously feel that the market fears are overblown, otherwise they'd be shooting themselves in the foot...
    May 31 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Ignore The Pain In Spain [View article]
    I am buying calls at crazy levels in STD for Sept '12. Don't want to own more of the stock, but the call options are trading so unbelievably cheaply that snapping up 50-100 of them at today's levels is a real bargain. The upside is tremendous, and if they expire OTM then at least the investment wasn't all that hefty.

    I am long STD, long STD calls and short a few STD puts.
    May 31 04:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Beaten Down Steel Maker Finally Looks Ready To Rebound [View article]
    There has been a spike in chatter here today in Singapore among some of the big hedge funds of an imminent move by the ECB to step in here before Spain is a basket base (or a worse one).

    Word on the street is that Spain is now 'playing chicken' with the rest of the Eurozone. The view is that the Spanish govt is now starting to think that being the first out of the Euro would be a far better idea than getting out late. View is that with sov debt yields now approaching the widely viewed unsustainable level of 7%, it would be less damaging for them to bring back the Peseta and rebuild from there, rather than being part of a very long and drawn out austerity drive by staying in for the long run in the Euro.

    This apparently has EU officials running scared that they actually no longer have Spain under their influence and that if things get any worse Spain might just go their own way.

    Either way - I think a decision which will likely be the biggest stock market catalyst since 2008/2009 is likely to manifest itself within the next week.

    For my part, I am loading up on calls on some of the unreasonably beaten up Spanish stocks that I think could see a big pop should the ECB decide that supporting Spain and bringing them back into the fold is a better move than just sitting on the sidelines and watching the carnage.

    Disclosure: Long calls for STD & TEF. Short ST puts on STD.
    May 30 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Another Opportunity To Buy Low Now [View article]
    Because there is a very high probability that things are going to get a little uglier than they are already now during June. Add to this the possibility for worse data out of China and a contagion spread through European banks, and I'm lead to think that there are not many reasons why BAC should be going up.

    So, again as I said, either write some puts and get paid for waiting, or just wait.

    I may very well be wrong though, but as I originally said - this is just my opinion, and also exactly what I am planning on doing (waiting, not writing puts)
    May 29 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Another Opportunity To Buy Low Now [View article]
    My sense is that right now is the time to hold off - at least for June - see where things go. If anything, sell a few put contracts, but going long the stock right now seems a little reckless IMHO.
    May 29 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Telefonica S.A. [View article]
    Respectfully, is there any way I can stop your lunatic posts from appearing in my feed?
    May 29 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Beaten Down Steel Maker Finally Looks Ready To Rebound [View article]
    Kicking myself for not having bought at 14.01.

    Bret - what you think about selling ST puts on MT right now?
    May 29 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Another Opportunity To Buy Low Now [View article]
    Should have scrolled a little further down before posting - I've basically replicated your reply above!
    May 29 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Another Opportunity To Buy Low Now [View article]
    Then write some puts and get paid to wait until that px drops occurs. While I agree that the pps is low right now, there are still a lot of macro events going on that could further depress the stock.

    Write a few put contracts for 6 month expiry at a price you are happy to own the stock at. If the px doesn't drop, then you keep the premium. If it does, then you get the stock at the px you wanted and you'll have been earning a yield for waiting.
    May 29 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid These 6 Stocks [View article]
    Might be a good idea to take a look at the MT 6.75% corp bond - trading substantially below par and has some interesting coupon kickers in the event that MT is downgraded.
    May 26 05:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Are Selling Chesapeake Like Crazy [View article]
    Well well well... Enter BlackRock (new long position of 4-5 million CHK shares) and one Mr Carl Icahn (now long 4% CHK).

    Stock price is reacting nicely - surely adding some mild heartburn to anyone who recently shorted CHK.

    Disclosure: I am long CHK (but not by nearly as much as BlackRock or Carl Icahn!)
    May 25 04:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Telefonica S.A. [View article]
    So - question for everyone: what is your "Buy Now" price target for TEF?

    TEF Bears - I am especially looking at you lot here...

    I am long TEF.
    May 21 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 New Reasons To Buy Annaly Now [View article]
    But that is just my point - if you've made money from a great investment in the past and the thesis has got a whole load riskier, isn't it time to take profit?

    Either way, as my first article pointed out, I am giving a non-US resident's point of view, so if the div was in fact cut to 7%, all I would be getting would be 4.9%. May as well buy one of the big steady utility companies that yields just as much with 90% less of the potential capital downside.
    May 20 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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