sclarksons

Best Buy's Online Shopping Freefall

THanks for keeping us posted on this TOdd, I appreciate it.

Do you know what the picture looks like for sales?

I'm wondering if visits are translating into sales for SHLD.

Lampert's Patience Is Rewarded as Sears Holdings Buys More Sears Canada Shares

other assets I forgot to mention are orchard supply hardware and "delver" whatever they are, and the sears corporate campus in illinois which is probably still worth a hundred million or so, despite the downturn.

lots of the assets are probably on the books at 100 year prices.

Lampert's Patience Is Rewarded as Sears Holdings Buys More Sears Canada Shares

Todd, thanks for the information.

Robert99,
low 20s would be a market value of 2.7 billion or so.

Sears' artificially low stockholder equity is 10.8 billion.

(I say artificially low due to the write down of kmart assets out of bankruptcy from 9B to less than 500 mil, (can't remember the specs, and the 5 billion in buybacks.)

2.7 billion seems a rather absurd price for the company that could net 4 billion cash for selling its inventory at cost after paying all debt and lease obligations.

so they have 4 billion in cash after that deal, call it three due to salaries and other uncertainties.
then sell the company owned stores for about 500,000 each, that's another 407 million.

now we have 3.4 billion dollars and still have 73% of sears canada and land's end, craftsman, kenmore, diehard, and the online business.

Some smart people write this one off because it is in a dying buiness, mall based retail.

As Buffett says, when the management with a reputation for excellence runs into an industry with a lousy reputation, it is the industry reputation that wins.

However, I would counter that Sears is in the "shareholder value focused holding company" business, not the retail business.

it will be interesting to see what happens...

Sears: Which Is a Better Buy - the Equity or the Bonds?

Hey, Take notes from the meeting and post them if you can be so kind.
I'd love to hear what ESL has to say, but I teach on mondays and wednesdays.

No way to ditch class when you are the teacher.

Sam

Sears: Which Is a Better Buy - the Equity or the Bonds?

My Assumption with sears equity is that it is perpetual, or almost so, depending on how long lampert lives.

I own both a small amount of the bonds and lots of equity.

the bonds are thinly traded, and have limited upside. (but 4.5 to 1 is pretty good "limited" upside"
Be sure that Lampert isn't going to leave a bunch of $25 dollar bills lying around priced at $6. So, the Bonds might have quicker upside, and obviously have the benefit of paying out quite a bit of cash while you wait.
The equity is more liquid, but
the nice thing about the equity is that I don't think I'll have to figure out what to do with the money for the next twenty or thirty years.

Jeffrey Macke's Sears Holdings Article Was Changed (Though Not By Me)

One small victory for the truth!

thanks for staying on top of that guy and helping with the homework on this Jeff!

-Sam

Hoping Shorts Will Drive Sears Down for Me

I was in fact accused of being an anonymous emailer,

I also replied again to Jeff Macke and "Big Jim" letting them know that I own or manage several thousand shares of SHLD, and again, asking Macke to describe the "transfer of 5 Billion from Sears to his hedge fund"

My final two comments were very straightforward, kind, and were blocked.

Okay, I got a little challenging on the earlier comment, telling him that he was either short the stock, stupid, or being pimped out by a shortseller.

I hold to that scenario.

Hoping Shorts Will Drive Sears Down for Me

I challenged Macke to articulate how the five billion swindle took place, and what record he had of it.
I did so because I have read every SEC filing on sears and kmart for the last three years, and most of them for the last ten.

I asked him via email, and twice on the website where his article was published.

He challenged me to do my own homework.

It must have been journalistic creative interpretation of the facts, and an unwillingness to admit stretching the truth after being called out on it.

Or maybe he's basing his article on some shortseller's rumour.

Jim Rogers on the Economy - Bearish on Stocks and Government

Perhaps the Shorts who are so dedicated to nationalization, would be willing to give up all the money from their short positions before nationalization takes place.

Who can say that Nationalizing a bank is less expensive for the taxpayer than supporting it for a few years while the bank brings in new loans with safer terms for the bank?
Are the IRS or postal service free of perks for employees? are government systems in general more efficient at dealing with markets for their services?

The fact is that lots of people who never should have gotten credit got credit, and so they need to adjust to a world and a lifestyle without it.

that will hurt.

Ackman's Sears Sale: An Expression of His Activism

Artificial boost?

the market cap is less than half of the inventory at cost.

thank god I don't borrow to buy shares, as the market is absolutely irrational on this deal.

he could have a fire sale of all the inventory, selling it all at cost,
ruining christmas for all other retaliers,

and bid $150 per share for the 60 million shares outstanding with the proceeds.

or he might have already locked up the outstanding shares with call options, creating a VW scenario where shareholders name their prices. I've got limit orders in to sell at $1000 just in case.

It's hard to be long this stock, but the downside at a 4 billion market cap does not exist.

@VIC: Top Hedge Fund Picks

know your information provider.

Pzena is a statistical analyst, his system works as a diversified system, but you copycat single positions at your own risk.

Tom Brown's banking picks assumed the survival of the banking system. (bad assumption)

other value guys have more mid sized circles of competence than RP and TB.

What this cycle has proven is that you disregard Ackman and other smart value investors at your own risk.

I've made a moldy 15% annualized in BRK with purchases when it was cheap in 2005 and 2007.

It's been cheap this year too.

I'd take a bubble in value over a "confirmed trend" any day.

Value investors lose out early in the decline as cheap gets cheaper, and make money through the trough and into the next cycle.

If you lose less into the trough, you make more over all.

It all comes down to price and value. if you don't get that, give your money to someone who does.

Variant Perception: Sears Holdings and Financials

Short Squeeze??? with only 35 million shares sold short out of a float of 35 million outside of the top five holders.

Sears Faces Risk If Economy Doesn't Improve

The Writer actually said that sears will go bankrupt.

this was unsubstantiated by any fact other than first quarter cash flows from operations being negative.

Wall street and the average Mad Money fan have no idea how to evaluate a company that doesn't pander to wall street convention.

Same store sales declining? fine, invest the money elsewhere.

The Shorts are chained to the railroad tracks on this deal.

Sears Faces Risk If Economy Doesn't Improve

I hope this nice piece of journalism helps you and your acquaintances get out of your short position before the next quarterly report.

Can you outline the bankruptcy scenario?

Numbers Check on Sears Holdings - It's Cheap

the Shorts are roadkill in the weighing machine called the market. Watch the price climb 30 points at the first whiff of good news, I'll let my shares go for $350 before december growing at 20% annually, otherwise I'll be holding. I hope Grandma isn't short financials at less than book value either, or she'll be moving in with you.