sclarksons's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/189760/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/129889-best-buy-s-online-shopping-freefall?source=feed#comment-455244 455244
Do you know what the picture looks like for sales?

I'm wondering if visits are translating into sales for SHLD.]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 15:14:49 -0400
Do you know what the picture looks like for sales?

I'm wondering if visits are translating into sales for SHLD.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126784-lampert-s-patience-is-rewarded-as-sears-holdings-buys-more-sears-canada-shares?source=feed#comment-433139 433139
lots of the assets are probably on the books at 100 year prices.

]]> Fri, 20 Mar 2009 01:14:20 -0400
lots of the assets are probably on the books at 100 year prices.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126784-lampert-s-patience-is-rewarded-as-sears-holdings-buys-more-sears-canada-shares?source=feed#comment-433136 433136
Robert99,
low 20s would be a market value of 2.7 billion or so.

Sears' artificially low stockholder equity is 10.8 billion.

(I say artificially low due to the write down of kmart assets out of bankruptcy from 9B to less than 500 mil, (can't remember the specs, and the 5 billion in buybacks.)

2.7 billion seems a rather absurd price for the company that could net 4 billion cash for selling its inventory at cost after paying all debt and lease obligations.

so they have 4 billion in cash after that deal, call it three due to salaries and other uncertainties.
then sell the company owned stores for about 500,000 each, that's another 407 million.

now we have 3.4 billion dollars and still have 73% of sears canada and land's end, craftsman, kenmore, diehard, and the online business.

Some smart people write this one off because it is in a dying buiness, mall based retail.

As Buffett says, when the management with a reputation for excellence runs into an industry with a lousy reputation, it is the industry reputation that wins.

However, I would counter that Sears is in the "shareholder value focused holding company" business, not the retail business.

it will be interesting to see what happens...]]> Fri, 20 Mar 2009 01:10:00 -0400
Robert99,
low 20s would be a market value of 2.7 billion or so.

Sears' artificially low stockholder equity is 10.8 billion.

(I say artificially low due to the write down of kmart assets out of bankruptcy from 9B to less than 500 mil, (can't remember the specs, and the 5 billion in buybacks.)

2.7 billion seems a rather absurd price for the company that could net 4 billion cash for selling its inventory at cost after paying all debt and lease obligations.

so they have 4 billion in cash after that deal, call it three due to salaries and other uncertainties.
then sell the company owned stores for about 500,000 each, that's another 407 million.

now we have 3.4 billion dollars and still have 73% of sears canada and land's end, craftsman, kenmore, diehard, and the online business.

Some smart people write this one off because it is in a dying buiness, mall based retail.

As Buffett says, when the management with a reputation for excellence runs into an industry with a lousy reputation, it is the industry reputation that wins.

However, I would counter that Sears is in the "shareholder value focused holding company" business, not the retail business.

it will be interesting to see what happens...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124538-sears-which-is-a-better-buy-the-equity-or-the-bonds?source=feed#comment-418736 418736 I'd love to hear what ESL has to say, but I teach on mondays and wednesdays.

No way to ditch class when you are the teacher.

Sam]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 01:05:15 -0400 I'd love to hear what ESL has to say, but I teach on mondays and wednesdays.

No way to ditch class when you are the teacher.

Sam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124538-sears-which-is-a-better-buy-the-equity-or-the-bonds?source=feed#comment-416073 416073
I own both a small amount of the bonds and lots of equity.

the bonds are thinly traded, and have limited upside. (but 4.5 to 1 is pretty good "limited" upside"
Be sure that Lampert isn't going to leave a bunch of $25 dollar bills lying around priced at $6. So, the Bonds might have quicker upside, and obviously have the benefit of paying out quite a bit of cash while you wait.
The equity is more liquid, but
the nice thing about the equity is that I don't think I'll have to figure out what to do with the money for the next twenty or thirty years.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 12:08:59 -0500
I own both a small amount of the bonds and lots of equity.

the bonds are thinly traded, and have limited upside. (but 4.5 to 1 is pretty good "limited" upside"
Be sure that Lampert isn't going to leave a bunch of $25 dollar bills lying around priced at $6. So, the Bonds might have quicker upside, and obviously have the benefit of paying out quite a bit of cash while you wait.
The equity is more liquid, but
the nice thing about the equity is that I don't think I'll have to figure out what to do with the money for the next twenty or thirty years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124534-jeffrey-macke-s-sears-holdings-article-was-changed-though-not-by-me?source=feed#comment-416051 416051
thanks for staying on top of that guy and helping with the homework on this Jeff!

-Sam]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 12:00:26 -0500
thanks for staying on top of that guy and helping with the homework on this Jeff!

-Sam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123427-hoping-shorts-will-drive-sears-down-for-me?source=feed#comment-410104 410104
I also replied again to Jeff Macke and "Big Jim" letting them know that I own or manage several thousand shares of SHLD, and again, asking Macke to describe the "transfer of 5 Billion from Sears to his hedge fund"

My final two comments were very straightforward, kind, and were blocked.

Okay, I got a little challenging on the earlier comment, telling him that he was either short the stock, stupid, or being pimped out by a shortseller.

I hold to that scenario.

]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 17:29:30 -0500
I also replied again to Jeff Macke and "Big Jim" letting them know that I own or manage several thousand shares of SHLD, and again, asking Macke to describe the "transfer of 5 Billion from Sears to his hedge fund"

My final two comments were very straightforward, kind, and were blocked.

Okay, I got a little challenging on the earlier comment, telling him that he was either short the stock, stupid, or being pimped out by a shortseller.

I hold to that scenario.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123427-hoping-shorts-will-drive-sears-down-for-me?source=feed#comment-409254 409254 I did so because I have read every SEC filing on sears and kmart for the last three years, and most of them for the last ten.

I asked him via email, and twice on the website where his article was published.

He challenged me to do my own homework.

It must have been journalistic creative interpretation of the facts, and an unwillingness to admit stretching the truth after being called out on it.

Or maybe he's basing his article on some shortseller's rumour.


]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 09:59:35 -0500 I did so because I have read every SEC filing on sears and kmart for the last three years, and most of them for the last ten.

I asked him via email, and twice on the website where his article was published.

He challenged me to do my own homework.

It must have been journalistic creative interpretation of the facts, and an unwillingness to admit stretching the truth after being called out on it.

Or maybe he's basing his article on some shortseller's rumour.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120410-jim-rogers-on-the-economy-bearish-on-stocks-and-government?source=feed#comment-387281 387281
Who can say that Nationalizing a bank is less expensive for the taxpayer than supporting it for a few years while the bank brings in new loans with safer terms for the bank?
Are the IRS or postal service free of perks for employees? are government systems in general more efficient at dealing with markets for their services?

The fact is that lots of people who never should have gotten credit got credit, and so they need to adjust to a world and a lifestyle without it.

that will hurt.]]> Fri, 13 Feb 2009 11:50:16 -0500
Who can say that Nationalizing a bank is less expensive for the taxpayer than supporting it for a few years while the bank brings in new loans with safer terms for the bank?
Are the IRS or postal service free of perks for employees? are government systems in general more efficient at dealing with markets for their services?

The fact is that lots of people who never should have gotten credit got credit, and so they need to adjust to a world and a lifestyle without it.

that will hurt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106507-ackman-s-sears-sale-an-expression-of-his-activism?source=feed#comment-309280 309280
the market cap is less than half of the inventory at cost.

thank god I don't borrow to buy shares, as the market is absolutely irrational on this deal.

he could have a fire sale of all the inventory, selling it all at cost,
ruining christmas for all other retaliers,

and bid $150 per share for the 60 million shares outstanding with the proceeds.

or he might have already locked up the outstanding shares with call options, creating a VW scenario where shareholders name their prices. I've got limit orders in to sell at $1000 just in case.

It's hard to be long this stock, but the downside at a 4 billion market cap does not exist.]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 16:48:39 -0500
the market cap is less than half of the inventory at cost.

thank god I don't borrow to buy shares, as the market is absolutely irrational on this deal.

he could have a fire sale of all the inventory, selling it all at cost,
ruining christmas for all other retaliers,

and bid $150 per share for the 60 million shares outstanding with the proceeds.

or he might have already locked up the outstanding shares with call options, creating a VW scenario where shareholders name their prices. I've got limit orders in to sell at $1000 just in case.

It's hard to be long this stock, but the downside at a 4 billion market cap does not exist.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98808-vic-top-hedge-fund-picks?source=feed#comment-275892 275892
Pzena is a statistical analyst, his system works as a diversified system, but you copycat single positions at your own risk.

Tom Brown's banking picks assumed the survival of the banking system. (bad assumption)

other value guys have more mid sized circles of competence than RP and TB.

What this cycle has proven is that you disregard Ackman and other smart value investors at your own risk.

I've made a moldy 15% annualized in BRK with purchases when it was cheap in 2005 and 2007.

It's been cheap this year too.

I'd take a bubble in value over a "confirmed trend" any day.

Value investors lose out early in the decline as cheap gets cheaper, and make money through the trough and into the next cycle.

If you lose less into the trough, you make more over all.

It all comes down to price and value. if you don't get that, give your money to someone who does.
]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:46:06 -0400
Pzena is a statistical analyst, his system works as a diversified system, but you copycat single positions at your own risk.

Tom Brown's banking picks assumed the survival of the banking system. (bad assumption)

other value guys have more mid sized circles of competence than RP and TB.

What this cycle has proven is that you disregard Ackman and other smart value investors at your own risk.

I've made a moldy 15% annualized in BRK with purchases when it was cheap in 2005 and 2007.

It's been cheap this year too.

I'd take a bubble in value over a "confirmed trend" any day.

Value investors lose out early in the decline as cheap gets cheaper, and make money through the trough and into the next cycle.

If you lose less into the trough, you make more over all.

It all comes down to price and value. if you don't get that, give your money to someone who does.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93369-variant-perception-sears-holdings-and-financials?source=feed#comment-242982 242982 Mon, 01 Sep 2008 04:52:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89819-sears-faces-risk-if-economy-doesn-t-improve?source=feed#comment-225605 225605
this was unsubstantiated by any fact other than first quarter cash flows from operations being negative.

Wall street and the average Mad Money fan have no idea how to evaluate a company that doesn't pander to wall street convention.

Same store sales declining? fine, invest the money elsewhere.

The Shorts are chained to the railroad tracks on this deal.]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 21:06:12 -0400
this was unsubstantiated by any fact other than first quarter cash flows from operations being negative.

Wall street and the average Mad Money fan have no idea how to evaluate a company that doesn't pander to wall street convention.

Same store sales declining? fine, invest the money elsewhere.

The Shorts are chained to the railroad tracks on this deal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89819-sears-faces-risk-if-economy-doesn-t-improve?source=feed#comment-225483 225483
Can you outline the bankruptcy scenario?

]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 16:51:55 -0400
Can you outline the bankruptcy scenario?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85422-numbers-check-on-sears-holdings-it-s-cheap?source=feed#comment-208141 208141 Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:04:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75909-soap-opera-at-sears?source=feed#comment-162967 162967 Tue, 06 May 2008 18:31:35 -0400