mwswi

Jeremy Grantham: Collapse is Over, But Monumental Challenges Remain

Thanks for your reply, Maya_. I did register at GMO and read the "GMO 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts (1Q 2009)," the "1Q 2009 GMO Quarterly Update" and just as importantly, the "1Q 2009 International Active Update." I came away with a better understanding of GMO's investment strategy as a whole.

I also enjoyed reading, "Valuing Equities in an Economic Crisis," written by GMO's Ben Inker.

Again, I appreciate your reply...

-- mwswi --


On May 07 12:58 PM Maya_ wrote:

> Go to his website (gmo.com), register (its free) and read his quarterly
> updates - these provide substantial details of allocation to equity
> and specific shares invested. I suspect his own monies will be invested
> in a substantially similar manner, probably through in house managed
> funds.
>
> On May 07 12:36 PM mwswi wrote:

Jeremy Grantham: Collapse is Over, But Monumental Challenges Remain

Any idea(s) what particular investments Jeremy Grantham is leaning towards or favors during the "V" run-up and what investments he would retreat into during the "L" portion/era? It's difficult to interpret what investments he would direct (1) his clients monies and (2) his own personal portfolio from this, his current thesis.

Potential Upside in Energy-Related MLPs

Thanks for the article. I'm in complete agreement that pipeline MLPs are a nice way to play the energy sector.

I currently own shares of KMR, and as the above column states, dividends in KMR are paid in additional shares vs. cash (unlike KMP).

Articles in recent editions of "Kiplinger Personal Finance" also points out, shares in pipeline partnerships are offering rich current yields -- 8% to 10% -- and the most stable of firms are unlikely to cut their payouts. The cash flow that these pipelines distribute comes from fuel transportation charges and is independent of oil-and-gas prices (although cheaper gasoline prices generally mean more volume).

Currently, shares of KMR and/or KMP fall beneath Morningstar's "Consider Buying" price levels.

In my opinion, pipelines are an effective way to diversify the energy investment sector within my portfolio. The dividend and financial soundness of the company is also what drew me to consider investing in KMR.

Source: Kiplinger "Personal Finance"
"The New Rules for Investing Your Money," January 2009
"A Pipeline to Energy Profits," February 2009

Morici: Depression or Recession

I read a series of columns by Gabor Steingart on the German news source, Der Spiegel earlier in 2008. That lead me to purchase his book, "The War on Wealth." I agree that it is a worthwhile read and page 85 is spot-on with what is occurring at this moment in America. His series of graphic charts (PowerPoint-like) at the end of Chapter 5 was also thought provoking for me. In my opinion Gabor Steingart and Mohamed El-Erian (PIMCO CEO and Co-CIO) share many similar global viewpoints.


On Dec 05 02:55 PM mattupp wrote:

> Well, to curb our thirst for Chinese goods, we'd have to stop buying
> things a) from Wal Mart, Target, Kmart (are they STILL in business?),
> b) anything made of plastic, c) any toys with electronics or d) all
> of the above adn more.
>
> And it's not just China, although they are the biggest problem to
> our economy. Read a quick book called "War on Wealth" by Gabor Steingart
> to see how India & China are quickly accelerating their growth
> through an uneven playing field (uneven against the West).
>
> Simply put, if Wal Mart, et al, demanded more than the lowest price
> from their vendors and included workers rights in China/Far East,
> true environmental protection, basic health care coverage for the
> workers in both China/Far East AND the US, raised prices (YES, RAISED
> prices) to reflect the true cost of the goods being sold, then US
> made products would have a chance to compete for shelf space - since
> much of the price disparity can be attributed to the US laws on child
> labor, environment, minimum wages and medical insurance, which should
> be included in a product's price.
>
> I recall the news reports of local protest when Wal Mart wanted to
> open a store in small towns, feeling that it would drive out small
> independent "mom & pop" stores, but the bigger threat wasn't
> to the local retail sector, but to the larger national manufacturing
> sector. Wal Mart and other big box retailers always demands the
> lowest price possible and reaps the benefits, claiming that their
> customer demands the lowest price, but the true cost of the products
> are being borne by those shoppers through lost manufacturing jobs
> in their community and across the nation.

Larry Swedroe: What to Do Now

Excellent article... just ordered your book. Also have heard you on Paul Merriman's "Sound Investment!" podcasts and enjoyed listening to your investment perspectives.

Your statement, "And a lot of people took the allocation they made to commodities from their fixed-income portfolios. That was a common mistake too," just dampened my consideration of making such a move.

Therefore, I'd like to thank you for posting this fine article and mentioning PIMCO's CommodityRealReturn Fund.

2009: Expecting a Massive Rally

Up, down, sideways, stagnant, etc. Everyone seems to have an educated "guess," which is all that it is. Nobody truly knows which direction the market is headed. This article and subsequent conflicting commentary proves it. Still it's entertaining to read everyone's varying perceptions.

Deepwater Drillers: Not in a Very Deep Hole

Alan von Altendorf: This may an ideal time for you to short energy big-time ("...those oil service jobs aren't coming back"). Meanwhile, some of us don't find it feasible to think that energy pricing will stay suppressed for the long-term. Only time will tell if you are correct or some of us are badly mistaken. And when all is said and done, none of us truly know what's in the cards for the future.

Best Stocks for 2009

Thanks, Dividends4Life, for publishing an entertaining article. I enjoyed reading the fearless predictions of your various, "investment experts". Do I take any of those predictions seriously? I don't think so.

Still, it's always interesting to read the differing perspectives of readers in the commentary section. It simply proves that investing is a very inexact science and nobody can truly predict the market's future. This implies to both the "investment experts" as well as those SeekingAlpha readers who offer their own unique opinions.

TIPs to Protect Yourself from Future Inflation

Rory,

According to Morningstar's columnist Sue Stevens and what I've been told by other investment analysts/advisors, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have a fixed interest rate, but investors’ principal adjusts along with inflation rates. Because interest paid from TIPS is taxable, it’s generally best to hold them in tax-deferred accounts.

Naturally, there's exceptions to every rule, but this is the guideline that I've been following. I'd be very interested in learning if the investment landscape has changed in this respect...

TIPs to Protect Yourself from Future Inflation

Thanks for your timely article. I've been considering adding TIPS to a tax-deferred retirement account (to constitute approximately 10% of my wife's and my overall bond holdings). And as you point out, now may be a very opportune time to do so with both ETFs being down between 7% and 8% for the year while yielding near 8%. In the mutual fund realm, Vanguard's Inflation-Protected Securities (VIPSX) is currently down 7.7% for the year and yields 6.48%.

Coke or Pepsi?

I like both KO and PEP. IMHO, both can coexist very well in almost any portfolio.

China: The One Global Market with Gains Behind the Gloom

brooklynbl,

<< Did you not read the news before writing this article? Obama, 2.5 million jobs, road, schools, infrastructure. Hello? >>

Proposing the creation of 2.5 million jobs, etc. and successfully putting these ideas into play are two very different things...

Buy, Sell or Hold: PepsiCo Got Thrown Out with the Bathwater

P-Opt,
Between your price point of $55.00 and Morningstar's "Consider Buying" point of $59.20, shares of PepsiCo (PEP) remains a timely buy. PEP also provides a strategic play on China, along with Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald's (MCD), and Yum Brands (YUM). IMHO, this sure looks like a win/win proposition especially in the face of a currently deteriorating economy.

General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?

In my personal opinion, I think we've hit a period in history where there is a serious dearth of talent in the upper management ranks of an overwhelming number of American companies.

Ten Illinois Stocks

Thanks for the Illinois Chamber of Commerce tour :)