mwswi

14 Comments

    • ON: Thu Sep 18th 12:44 PM
      Commented on:
      Lessons to Learn from the Market Meltdown
      <<You should know exactly what you will do in the event of a market meltdown. >>

      I admit that I'm using the current economic climate as an opportunity to buy additional shares. Right or wrong, I've been purchasing more shares in deeply discounted companies on a weekly basis. Hopefully, this will play-out to be a strategically correct move. Only time will tell...
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Aug 20th 09:51 AM
      Commented on:
      Commodities and War Concerns Weighing Down RSX
      The Georgia matter will drag out, but eventually be resolved when Russia decides they have adequately taught everyone a lesson. Russia has been more than happy to let this "crisis" evolve into a chess game and see themselves playing the upper hand (which, in reality, they are). The political environment will slide back into cruise-control and the matter will become yet another footnote in history. The "West" has a short memory.

      However, from an investment point-of-view, perhaps this would be an opportune moment in time to consider incrementally increasing stakes in RSX. Unless, of course, you believe that gas and oil has much further to fall. After all, Europe still awakens each day as long-term customers of Russian gas and oil. Even short-term political acrimony won't do much to affect that.
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    • ON: Tue Aug 19th 09:30 AM
      Commented on:
      5 Impressive Stocks in This Difficult Market
      I hold common stock in four of your listed five, and they've been stalwarts in my portfolio during 2008 (knock-on-wood...).
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Aug 13th 09:06 AM
      Commented on:
      16 Stocks That Are Paying My College Tuition
      Thanks for sharing your thoughts regarding your investment portfolio. Since I know few young people who invest -- let alone have any interest in learning how to save -- I commend you for putting together a plan that suites your needs. And like most plans, I'm certain that you'll continually monitor and fine-tune it as you go along. Keep up the good work and best of luck in the future.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Aug 2nd 18:14 PM
      Commented on:
      Tech and Healthcare Offer Growth at a Discount - Barron's Interview
      I agree with Eli Hoffman especially when it comes to MDT. This is further supported in a 09-14-07 Morningstar article:

      Three Once-in-a-Decade Stock Values
      These HealthCareInvestor stocks haven't been so cheap for more than 10 years.

      The author, Curt Morrison, MD, FACC, CFA states:

      ************

      "My investment theses for HealthCareInvestor portfolio holdings Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Medtronic (MDT) share common themes and depend on the following assumptions:

      1. The companies' historic economic advantages are stable and durable.

      2. Stocks are fairly priced over long-run horizons.

      3. Ten to 20 years is a long-run horizon.

      If these assumptions are true, then the companies' future growth and returns on assets will be similar to past results, and the historic average valuation is the correct valuation. I'll discuss these points in this HCI issue before presenting data highlighting the value of entrenched economic advantages, and then closing with comments about portfolio construction and performance evaluation.

      Mature, Stable Growth Companies

      Medtronic was founded in 1949, Johnson & Johnson in 1885, and Pfizer in 1849, and their trailing 20- to 30-year earnings and dividend growth rates were both stellar and steady, supporting the notion that all three were mature, stable growth companies several decades ago.
      Each company posted double-digit growth in every decade-plus period listed, and I think the consistency of their results is the most telling feature of the data. It suggests that these companies enjoyed persistent economic advantages and reinvestment opportunities that showed no signs of deterioration even many decades after the companies were founded. Because these were not young companies in the unsustainable rapid-growth phase of their life cycles, it should be reasonable to expect similar growth rates in the future as long as their economic advantages endure.

      Economic Moats Intact 

      A company's return on its assets is a good measure of its economic strength, and I've listed the Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and Medtronic 1997-2006 averages below:

      Pfizer: 14.7%


      J&J: 15.9%


      Medtronic: 15.4%

      Most U.S. companies earn returns in the 4%-8% range, so the performance above is outstanding. The HCI portfolio companies have grown rapidly while earning returns well above their costs of capital, and they've done it for decades. That isn't typical in a freely competitive economy; most companies eventually earn no more than their cost of capital because rivals are attracted to above-market returns like sharks to blood.

      First and foremost, I think their economic moats are based on technological innovation. Technological change is a threat to small companies with one or two cutting-edge products but limited resources to help them stay ahead of the curve. However, for companies with diversified product portfolios, an extensive R&D infrastructure, and a long history of new product development, technological change is a barrier that protects excess returns."

      ************

      The article continues in-depth, but I think the author, Dr. Curt Morrison's, points quoted above are well made. If you've been thinking about investing in health care, and you don't yet own these companies or are thinking about extending your current holdings, then now may be an opportune time to do so.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Aug 1st 13:34 PM
      Commented on:
      Three Stocks That Look Cheap Here
      I tend to agree based on your criteria, and would personally favor CAT of the three mentioned. Thanks for a good article.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Aug 1st 13:26 PM
      Commented on:
      3 Investment Ideas for the Rest of 2008 and 2009
      Regarding the stocks/ETFs that Russell favors, my guess is:*
      FAN / IYH / IYR / NLR / PBW / PPH / UUP

      *see the listing directly below the title...

      TO CLARIFY: It is the editor, and not Mr. Russell, who selects the ticker symbols that appear at the top of the article. They are chosen to make an article that would in our opinion be of interest to followers of those stocks easier for them to find. - SA Editor
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jun 15th 19:15 PM
      Commented on:
      Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part III
      Pick an expert... any expert. Their guesses -- including all the other so-called "experts" -- are as good as anyone's... including ours.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Jun 7th 09:19 AM
      Commented on:
      Will Railroads' Good Times Be Derailed?
      Terrific post, informedrailroader. And thanks for the link to Railroaderblog.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jun 1st 18:28 PM
      Commented on:
      Helium: Investing in the Loner Element
      I've been considering adding Praxair (PX) to my portfolio for quite some time and your article provides further reinforcement that it would, perhaps, be very wise to do so. Thanks for your well written article as well as the very convincing statistics.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jun 1st 18:28 PM
      Commented on:
      Helium: Investing in the Loner Element
      I've been considering adding Praxair (PX) to my portfolio for quite some time and your article provides further reinforcement that it would, perhaps, be very wise to do so. Thanks for your well written article as well as the very convincing statistics.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon May 12th 20:18 PM
      Commented on:
      Is Coca-Cola Enterprises About to Bottle Rocket Higher?
      According to Morningstar, CCE just hit a 52-week low today. Morningstar further states that 2008 will prove to be "another difficult year" for the two main domestic bottling arms of Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP). The reason? Carbonated soft drink sales continue to decline in the United States.

      That being said, Morningstar has been known to call 'em wrong. As you stated, there is no evidence of insider selling during 2008. All insider activity has been "buys" or "awards." So you do raise some very intriguing possibilities.

      A small investment in CCE, while catching it or near its 52 week low, may just handsomely pay off. Good luck, Paul.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon May 12th 19:55 PM
      Commented on:
      The Importance of Stock Picking, Illustrated in Oil
      fatcat,

      I'm guessing you're just being factitious. If so, that's a pretty good imitation of the typical MarketWatch community commentary.

      stanton
      View article »
    • ON: Tue May 6th 22:29 PM
      Commented on:
      Energy ETFs Down But Still Overbought
      A report issued tonight on the NBC Nightly News, stated that oil could reach $200 a barrel in the next two years. Sure it's a media news report quoting a so-called "expert." We shouldn't give it more weight than it deserves. But could this scenario actually play out? Yes, it is a possibility. Would these ETFs then be considered "overbought" when we all stumble upon this article in the 2008 archives? Perhaps not. Bottom line: It truly is anyone's guess.
      View article »
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