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ChuckJ

ChuckJ
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  • FT: Leniency expected from oil creditors amid fall in prices [View news story]
    I think I may have figured out what caused this negative speculation in oil. Currently the EIA weekly charts show an exact US supply / consumption balance. The issue seems to be their forecast for the first half of next year when they split. EIA has a rationale for this, but it isn't very convincing (shown below). Interestingly they also show support for increased prices in the BBEPP areas of production. IMHO this is where the negative (short) speculators got their ammunition (in addition to the more recent OPEC decision) to bring prices down.

    ChuckJ
    http://1.usa.gov/1urZY0v ... _print.cfm

    Continuing inventory builds are expected to put further downward pressure on oil prices. EIA expects Brent prices to fall from current levels to average $63/bbl from March through May. EIA expects that a change in market fundamentals will have to come from the supply side because, in the short-term, global demand is very inelastic to changes in price. The $63/bbl March-May Brent price forecast represents the price expected to slow supply growth enough to balance with weaker expected global consumption. The projected price decline is expected to bring the global oil market into rough balance during the second half of 2015, stemming inventory builds. Over the second half of the year, Brent prices are projected to average $72/bbl based on expectations of slower production growth and a firmer market.
    EIA’s STEO includes a downward revision to forecast supply growth in U.S. tight oil plays. Because many producers have already made investment and drilling plans for the early part of 2015, the U.S. crude oil production forecast through the first half of 2015 is relatively unchanged from the previous STEO, but growth forecasts for the second half of 2015 have been reduced. With high decline rates, which require high levels of drilling to maintain production, the outlook for U.S. tight oil production is more price-responsive than production in areas within and outside the United States where investment horizons are longer and less drilling is required to maintain production.
    With WTI crude oil prices expected to average $58/bbl in the second quarter of 2015, netback prices at the wellhead in certain domestic areas could fall into the low $40/bbl range. EIA expects 2015 drilling activity to decline due to less-attractive economic returns in some areas of both emerging and mature oil production regions. Many companies will redirect investment away from marginal exploration and research drilling and into core areas of major tight oil plays. However, projected oil prices remain high enough to support development drilling activity in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and Permian Basin, which contribute the majority of U.S. oil production growth.
    Dec 11, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FT: Leniency expected from oil creditors amid fall in prices [View news story]
    BBEPP is now yielding 11.2%. Some people are going to be happy when this one comes back.

    They are presenting tomorrow Dec 9, 2014 at 11:15 AM ET
    Wells Fargo Annual Energy Symposium
    Location: Waldorf Astoria Hotel, New York

    I would think they would have something to say about this situation at that meeting.

    See investor relations: http://bit.ly/1A8VxLI

    ChuckJ
    Dec 8, 2014. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FT: Leniency expected from oil creditors amid fall in prices [View news story]
    Thanks for your comments, they are consistent with what I was expecting. With hedges that strong it's hard for me to believe that it could be influencing preferred prices this much as their risk is in bankruptcy.
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FT: Leniency expected from oil creditors amid fall in prices [View news story]
    Anyone know the financial health of BBEP with the recent oil downturn? Is the stock price artifically depressed or more realistic. I'm not sure how BBEPP could be down as much as it is because past financial results through Sept down indicate probable bankruptcy to me.

    ChuckJ
    Dec 5, 2014. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Capital Agency's Earnings For Q3 2014 And My Thoughts On The Results [View article]
    Great Job Scott!!! They broke the mold after they made you!
    Oct 28, 2014. 12:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JMP's Delaney rings the register on American Capital Agency [View news story]
    Ditto
    Oct 20, 2014. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly selling low and buying high? Management discusses [View news story]
    "I appreciate your candor" usually is translated as F-off by the big boys. We'll see what happens to $NLY and others after last year's management actions.
    Feb 27, 2014. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich maintains Tuscaloosa potential, shares rebound 3% [View news story]
    Glad I picked up some more C and D shares.
    Feb 21, 2014. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another slide in book value at American Capital; early Q1 looking good [View news story]
    The full scoop on $AGNC

    Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Highlights
    " $(0.99) comprehensive loss per common share, comprised of:
    o $(0.28) net loss per common share
    o $(0.71) other comprehensive income/(loss) ("OCI") per common share
    " Includes net unrealized losses on investments marked-to-market through OCI
    " $0.75 net spread and dollar roll income/(loss) per common share, comprised of:
    o Interest income, net of cost of funds (including interest rate swaps) and operating expenses
    o Estimated net carry loss (also known as "dollar roll income/(loss)") of $(0.02) per common share associated with the Company's net short position in agency mortgage backed securities ("MBS") in the "to-be-announced" ("TBA") market
    o Estimated "catch-up" premium amortization benefit of $0.07 per common share due to a change in projected constant prepayment rate ("CPR") estimates
    " $0.65 estimated taxable income per common share
    " $0.65 dividend per common share declared on December 18, 2013
    " $0.59 estimated undistributed taxable income per common share as of December 31, 2013
    " $23.93 net book value per common share as of December 31, 2013
    o Decreased $(1.34) per common share, or -5%, from $25.27 per common share as of September 30, 2013
    " -2.7% economic return on common equity for the quarter, or -10.8% annualized
    o Comprised of $0.65 dividend per common share and $(1.34) decrease in net book value per common share
    Other Fourth Quarter Highlights
    " $68.2 billion agency MBS investment portfolio as of December 31, 2013
    o Includes $2.3 billion net long TBA mortgage position as of December 31, 2013
    " $237 million investment in mortgage REIT equity securities as of December 31, 2013
    o Consists of common stock investments across the agency mortgage REIT sector
    " 7.5x "at risk" leverage as of December 31, 2013
    o 7.3x leverage excluding net long TBA mortgage position as of December 31, 2013
    o Increase of 0.3x from September 30, 2013 "at risk" leverage of 7.2x
    " 7.5x average "at risk" leverage during the quarter
    o 7.6x average leverage during the quarter excluding net TBA mortgage position
    " 8% actual portfolio CPR for the quarter
    o 7% average projected portfolio life CPR as of December 31, 2013
    o Excludes net TBA mortgage position
    " 1.39% annualized net interest rate spread as of December 31, 2013
    o Increase from 1.37% annualized net interest rate spread as of September 30, 2013
    o Excludes net TBA mortgage position
    " 1.56% annualized net interest rate spread and TBA dollar roll income/(loss) for the quarter
    o Includes -1 bps of estimated TBA dollar roll loss
    o Includes 14 bps of "catch-up" premium amortization benefit due to change in projected CPR estimates
    " 28.2 million shares of common stock repurchased during the quarter
    o Represents 7% of common shares outstanding as of September 30, 2013
    o $20.82 per share average repurchase price, net of expenses
    o Existing share repurchase authorization increased by $1 billion to $2 billion for total purchases of outstanding shares of common stock since the inception of the buyback program through December 31, 2014
    2013 Full Year Financial Highlights
    " -12.5% economic return on common equity
    o Comprised of $3.75 in dividends per common share and $(7.71) decrease in net book value per common share
    " $(4.47) comprehensive loss per common share, comprised of:
    o $3.28 net income per common share
    o $(7.75) OCI per common share
    " $2.48 estimated taxable income per common share
    o Estimated undistributed taxable income decreased from $2.18 per common share as of December 31, 2012 to $0.59 per common share as of December 31, 2013
    " 57.5 million shares of common stock issued during the year
    o $31.33 per share offering price, net of expenses
    " 40.3 million shares of common stock repurchased during the year
    o $21.25 per share average repurchase price, net of expenses

    ChuckJ
    Feb 3, 2014. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: No One Is Talking About Insider Buying, But They Should Be [View article]
    I was short until just before the div. I'm currently long, hoping I've not made the wrong move.
    Jan 21, 2014. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: No One Is Talking About Insider Buying, But They Should Be [View article]
    1. Who buys 181,000 shares of stock?
    2. I own it at 11 and I'm planning on holding it at least until I can see who of the big guys (like GS, etc) made increases or decreases in their holdings during the fourth quarter.
    Jan 17, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bells ringing on mortgage REITs? Goldman says Sell [View news story]
    The NASDAQ web site says GS has 2m+ shares and increased their buy by 166% as of the Sept 30 SEC report.
    Dec 7, 2013. 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bells ringing on mortgage REITs? Goldman says Sell [View news story]
    Remind us of where to find how many $AGNC and $NLY shares that GS owns.
    Dec 7, 2013. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bells ringing on mortgage REITs? Goldman says Sell [View news story]
    I thought that was JP Morgan Chase, was it GS too?
    Dec 7, 2013. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bells ringing on mortgage REITs? Goldman says Sell [View news story]
    That was my point
    Dec 6, 2013. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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