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High Yield Corporate Spreads Not Yet at Great Depression Levels

2 glaring problems:

1.) Your chart show yields not spreads. Spreads are the difference between risk-free rates (Treasuries) and corporate bonds and are the relevant metric to consider when evaluating risk-premiums for high-yield bonds. A lot of the large yield movements you see in your chart are largely driven by moments in Treasury/risk-free rates (which were in the teens in the early 80's) and NOT not spreads.

2.) High-yield bonds are considered those rated Ba1/BB+ and below and your graph shows yields of investment grade bonds.

The Real Secret to Fractional Banking

You have to use overall inflation to calculate real rates, not cherry-pick the most appreciated asset classes of the past year (e.g. gold). If you are going to arbitrarily chose an asset class to calculate real rates, try using the deflated housing prices of the past year. Makes just as much sense as using gold (none). You could have made your same arguments a year ago -- and those who invested in 10 year treasuries last year (at around 5% yields) made substantial returns -- particularly compared to those who lost tons in the equity (around 20% from the peaks) and housing markets. I'm not saying that treasuries are attractive now (I don't think that they are), but your analysis is flawed.