Roger Nusbaum

http://randomroger.blogspot.com/

393 Comments

    • ON: Sun Oct 12th 08:41 AM
      Commented on:
      Act Defensively, But Not from Fear
      khwender, the trade turned out to be correct, could have just as easily gone the other way. simple a matter of luck. your statement has fallacies galore. hopefully you can detach enough from the situation to see that.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 9th 14:25 PM
      Commented on:
      What Will Happen to Closed End Funds?
      Argent, what about California? Where there is one municipality there could be others.

      User 7013, I don't write for 'PR.' While there is no talking someone out of a notion like yours, how is this one specifically PR? TSCM doesn't pay by the eyeball. Neither is there any sort of tout.
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    • ON: Tue Oct 7th 08:39 AM
      Commented on:
      Getting Ready for... Anything
      Exponent, the market did warn, you can check my archives, it went below its 200 DMA in 2007 and it followed the 2% rule in q4 2007.

      the 2% rule is an average 2% decline three months in a row. it happens rarely outside of a bear and so marks the beginning of a bear.
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    • ON: Mon Oct 6th 22:38 PM
      Commented on:
      Getting Ready for... Anything
      Rabbito, for some folks going short is the answer, clearly. But that is not the right trade for most folks, maybe for you, don't know, but not most people.

      deflation better than inflation? that might be a tough sell.
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    • ON: Tue Sep 30th 14:00 PM
      Commented on:
      200 DMA As a Sign to Re-Enter Equities
      I keep it simple for 2 reasons, one it generally works and two no one approach can always be the single best.

      I am top down so picking big picutre first. as far as fundies, i think different things are more important with some types of stocks while other measures important for other types of stocks. meaning sizing up a utility stock and a brazilian resource stock the same way doesn't seem to be the best path.
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    • ON: Mon Sep 29th 18:27 PM
      Commented on:
      Fear Goes Hand in Hand with Drama
      LarryH, a normal bear market is a decline of 30 point something percent which is 1095 on the SPX. If it bottoms at 1080 I think normal turns out to be a good call. If it bottomed at 1000 would you call that much worse than normal? If you would then in your opinion 1095 would be a bad call.

      I have been very consistent saying that I am more focused on portfolio defense then being right about this (i say that in this article). As a matter of fact the action in the broad stock market is not worse than normal.

      How can it be worse than normal until it is worse than normal?
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    • ON: Mon Sep 29th 15:44 PM
      Commented on:
      Fear Goes Hand in Hand with Drama
      Smarty Pants I don't mean anything by 'Drama' as that is not the title i used on my blog for this post, I called it storm a brewin' so you need to ask the editors what that means.

      phdinsuntanning, not sure that is a conservative survival kit. It might be a goldmine in a down market but if the market staged an improbable rally that mix would get obliterated. it is a huge bet that could work of course but there would be blood if the low ends up being today; not my prediction but clearly a possibility.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 24th 14:05 PM
      Commented on:
      Making and Protecting Money in a Bear Market
      goalpost, for a little context...i have been writing about taking defensive action when SPX went below its 200 DMA and then getting back in when it goes above. that might happen soon or, as you say, not.

      One theme I have been working with is that if this becomes a systemic thing in the US, ok, but there are other countries where this is cyclical and that is where we will need to look to put money.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 24th 08:58 AM
      Commented on:
      Making and Protecting Money in a Bear Market
      more like swap than futures. the markets that facilitate the running of the funds are impaired due to short sale restrictions. this includes the derivatives of those markets.
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    • ON: Tue Sep 16th 12:00 PM
      Commented on:
      Believe It or Not, It's Still a Normal Bear
      cal48koho, your comments about PE ratios raise potential issues. I'm not sure where you get 25X, is that a forward number? looking at the components it is tough to find companies above 20. C and GM have negative PE but their low prices give them less weight in the index and so I don't think they could move the needle to 25.

      the more important issue, assuming your numbers are correct, would be DJIA composition. I do not have the 30 names from 1929 if the sector make up was as different as I think then comparing pe ratios from 80 years apart may not be a good idea.

      a little more generally i am not a fan of pe ratios for trying to predict anything because they can stay high or low for a very long time.

      you might be right to be very bearish (if i read you correctly) but if you are right it won't be for the PE ratio part of your thesis.
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    • ON: Mon Sep 15th 19:08 PM
      Commented on:
      Believe It or Not, It's Still a Normal Bear
      My "fixation on "normal, 'textbook,' etc" is to encourage people not to panic. Before anything bad happened I harped on have a plan for defense and then stick to it so you don't have to panic. Now that things are bad "don't panic, stick to your plan" seems like obvious follow through for people who have been reading me for a couple of years, or longer.

      "i told you so" is pretty low on my priority list, thanks.
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    • ON: Sat Sep 13th 16:46 PM
      Commented on:
      Diversification Is Your Only Friend
      Webisking, you have taken the exact same risk spelled out in the article. the only difference is you have not had to confront the consequence of that risk.

      Was your entry point 2005? You might have been shaken out earlier in the decade when the lawsuit news was causing the most damage, or maybe not but the stock got crushed back then.

      Altria is a client holding.
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    • ON: Sat Sep 13th 15:30 PM
      Commented on:
      Recognizing an Abnormal Market
      jafdc, bearfund points out one risk (maybe more, sorry, didn't read the whole thing) of all cash which is purchasing power risk but i'm not sure that is a huge risk if you are talking in terms of months.

      the other risk that i w/b concerned about is missing a huge rally. if we have another 2003 when this bear ends it will be missed by many people who are sitting on too much cash and won't believe the rally is real.

      i am positioned with a fair but of cash and some double short which leaves me underweight. with this positioning i don't have to worry about missing another 2003. i might lag it which is far better than missing it--big difference.

      further for most people, even retirees, the time horizon needs to be thought of in terms of decades not 11 months. if you have taken no defensive action before now and you want to go 100% cash i think the risk of compounding your troubles of the last 11 months is astronomically high. but that's just me.

      swaps, your comment about financials is instructive. taken benignly, the people you saw on TV saying good things are in a way correct, the vast majority of banks will not go out of business and in fact will come to be just fine in time. If they gave the impression that it was a good time to buy they clearly did not understand how bear markets work did not realize what was going on but were part of the consensus. there is safety in numbers. that will not change in the future unfortunately.
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    • ON: Fri Sep 12th 20:39 PM
      Commented on:
      Recognizing an Abnormal Market
      I thought the low was $0.38. If we get close to that again I'd probably try to buy a house on the South Island.

      There is plenty of uncertainty with China still. My logic was that at down 60%, where it was when I went in, much of the uncertainty was priced in. that it is down a little, as a market, doesn't concern me at all but I should disclose that my timing WRT to the stock selected was very poor.
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    • ON: Fri Sep 12th 12:22 PM
      Commented on:
      Recognizing an Abnormal Market
      one humorous line of thought that i enjoy is to say I am putting it all in shotgun shells, whiskey and beef jerky.
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