legmaker

Deep Sea Oil Drillers Show Potential for Gains

Forward PEs dont mean anything unless you have contracts to cover your assumed earnings. The reason that forward PEs mean nothing with respect to financials is we have no idea what their writeoffs will be on CDOs and etc. or consumer discretionary we are unsure how many people will lose their jobs so we dont know if they will buy the more expensive tooth paste. Whether or not a rig is called into play is not like the ground drillers as their contracts can be ended at anytime. The article shows what they have for revenues locked into contracts, these rigs are as close to a guarantee as you can get. Watch these stocks go up like crazy.

ADM Earnings Are a Shareholder's Dream

I think this is a great call Todd. I still think we are in the midst of a commodity based bull run, although right now commodities along with everything else is taking a breather. I know someone is going to call me on this, but its the same reason that people are buying gold. We are throwing money at our current problems, when throwing money at problems in the past got us where we are today. I am not saying it is the wrong idea, but the only thing we can do right now as deflation is very difficult to stop, but inflation is much easier. The way we are going now, I believe that we are going to see inflation comparable to that of the Reagan (Bless his soul) years.
If corn prices remain low, it will improve ADM's margins. If the prices increase, they will make corresponding price increases. Ethanol is also a very interesting part of the equation. Ethanol prices have plummeted because gasoline demand has decreased. The less gasoline we use, the less ethanol is used as an additive. E85 is a very small portion of the picture as many places still don't sell it and it can be tough to find depending on where you live.
The one thing people are not talking about is there current deal with LNDC. ADM making a biodegradable plastic wrap. This wrap is being implemented into grocery stores to wrap things like hamburger and vegetables. This may not be a big revenue source now, but when petroleum prices go up, and they will at some point, this will be big. I think ADM is a buy here, especially if you got in towards the end of the trading day. If that is the case then you will probably get a pop in the morning. ADM could still see $20, if it does pull the trigger. Great job and God Bless.

Exxon on U.S. Oil Refiners

Although Exxon may have some trouble in the short term, long term looks excellent. They are performing well even in a difficult environment and even though the Street didnt love the stock this earnings period, some time soon they will. Very informative. Thank you and God Bless.

Apple: Cheaper iPhone Could Bring in $7 Billion More

Great job, I use to own Apple as a trade a while back, but sold it around the time the carnage started. But I believe that Apple really looks good going forward here. I don't own any stock right now, but it looks as though the stock is heading towards $100. As for long term, you cant argue with a stock that has such a devoted following, and even though I just bought an HP, the IMac is so much better than anything else out there it is difficult to even explain. I have the older version of the Ipod touch and really like it. It is pretty slow, but out of date. Still works well when I don't want to lug a lap top into a hotel to check my stocks and options. Great job and God Bless.

Six Dividend Stocks Raising the Bar

After stating today they will be doubling their gross profit by 2012, it is hard not to get real excited about this company. The stock price is still intriguing, and seems no one is taking them serious even as they continue to outperform and should be releasing their drought resistant corn seed soon. God Bless

At Least Five Agricultural Stocks with Upside

Keep watching CMP, they have had a real good run, but on low volume. Profit taking today, but has some interesting things going on with the stock. God Bless.

Quick Take: The Mosaic Company

CMP has had a great run, watch into earnings.

Conference Call Highlights: The Next BRIC to Fall on Agro-Chem Co's

I do believe that GRU is a good investment right now. I just like the potash producers much better. Potash has held up real well in this poor economic environment while nitrogen and phosphate have been beaten. As for controling how well the world eats, it can be done with MON, as you can't grow a thing without planting a seed. This company looks to have unbelievable revenues going forward. Also, CMP and SQM sell a nonchloride potassium blend that works well with specialty crops with real high margins. These stocks have been doing real well as of late, watch them as I think their earnings will be especially strong this upcoming earnings.


On Jan 26 10:07 PM tagthatstock wrote:

> legmaker: "I think we will see a terrible crop this year, with respect
> to corn, wheat and soybeans"-------i agree,,,,,,,,,so why waste your
> time on POT/MON/MOS etc.............when you can buy GRU $6.49 and
> YOU can control how well the world eats.---------'the next global
> war without a bullet being shot'

CF Buyout Bid Grossly Undervalues Terra Industries

One more question english major, did you like the article and what is your position with respect to CF's move on TRA? God Bless.


On Jan 27 07:47 AM english major wrote:

> Dude, where did you learn English? Your post shows total ignorance
> of your language, so why should your comments be taken seriously?
>

CF Buyout Bid Grossly Undervalues Terra Industries

Sorry you didn't like my post english major, just thought Tim did a nice job. God Bless.


On Jan 27 07:47 AM english major wrote:

> Dude, where did you learn English? Your post shows total ignorance
> of your language, so why should your comments be taken seriously?
>

Are You Kidding? CBO's Laughable TARP Claims

I guess the most disturbing issue with respect to the need for the TARP, is how much has the world's economy really grown over the last decade. When you look a the amount of money garnered in the financial arena over that time frame, and then look at how much has and will evaporate over that time, it seems that the world wasnt and US economy wasnt really growing, it was leverage that was growing. So how much of this money was really distributed to the CEO's of these companies, and if so was all of the profits and growth within the companies just leverage, that will evaporate in a couple years time. Im sure at some point everything will level out with respect to valuation, but when it does I think we will realize that individual investors were not gaining anything over the long haul and maybe, just maybe, we cannot have faith in Wall Street as we are going to be held holding the debt and nothing for our investments. I am a younger investor, and have not been hurt as bad as my father or some of the people who work for me that are in their late 50's. But it is worrisome with respect to what some of these people will do when it comes time to retire. Most are talking about working into their seventies, even though, just a year ago they had enough money to retire. If this is so it seems awefully unfair to those that thought they would be able to enjoy their retirement at 65 like they thought. It is not my grandfathers economy that is for sure. God Bless everyone.

When Bank of Hawaii Falls Below 52-Week Low, It's Time to Buy

Hello everyone,
Just so everyone know's I bought in the money puts Friday and I will tell you why. Although I love this name long term and also believe $20 is a great place to buy this stock, I am unsure if a PE valuation is a good way to trade or invest in this name. Since financials are more of a trading prospect right now, I could either win big or lose big on Monday. Here are the reasons I bought puts and my comments will mimic many of those who wrote comments on this stock.
1. 16% of this state's economy is tourism. Since a trip to Hawaii is much more expensive than that of Mexico, even those with a little extra cash are probably going some place much less expensive.
2. 18% of their economy is real estate. When checking the numbers this state has held much better than others with respect to price, but prices are still down 3.6% to date. Since many people were using their homes as ATMs they will still see quite a bit of of problems in their market.
3. The most important is the forecast of unemployment which is still good, has it increasing 1.3% year over year, to 3.9%.
4. visitor arrivals down 10.6% yoy.
5. reall personal income down .3%
6. CPI up 4.6%.

With their total securities portfolio at $2.9 billion, 40% is with the Federal National Mortgage Assoc. and 29% with the Federal Home Loan Mortgage corp. As of 9-30-08 they had a total of $6.539 billion in home loans and leases with a loss provision of $115 million.
This company looks much better than many financials, including regionals, but may be a bit pricey. I didn't buy puts because I thought BOH was going to have a horrible quarter, I just think the stock is priced for perfection, and unless they beat by quite a bit will trend down after earnings. Have a great day and God Bless.

Unusual Options Activity Review: Thursday

I concur that GE is a great company, it is just difficult to decifer how much their financial division will drag them down. The nice thing is their other units are doing so well and generating so much cash that they should be able to write down much faster than other groups. Look for this company to take off since their write downs will happen faster and the second reason is they will be able to take additional market share in the financial arena before this is done, expanding the company.


On Jan 23 08:22 AM Robert Weinstein wrote:

> Not a big surprise with GE earnings about to come out in about 12
> mins from the time I write this.
>
> I been writting puts for Feb and Mar as I feel it doesnt matter what
> they report the stock will go up. There just isnt any other AAA stocks
> with such a wonderful PE and dividend even if it both get cut in
> half.
>
> GE is a great company and in the next few months there will be a
> lot of people wishing they didn't panic out of their stock.
>
> This says a lot that I am bullish with GE as I am NOT a value investor
> and short over 95% of my trades / investments.

Fundamentals of Potash

One more thing, after yesterday CMP has fallen off of a cliff, may be a buy here. I own call options in this name

Two Reasons CF Looks Headed for Big Profits

It will be interesting to see if TRA accepts the bid, and or another company gets into the bidding war. Not only is it a good fit, I think that CF is getting them quite cheap, and there very well could be an opposing offer. It seems that all of the fertilizer companies know that there are good times ahead. Technologies improving margins and a growing world eating more meat everyday, has caused much more volatility. Not to meantion the biofuels situation. At some point soon the economy wil pull out of this financial mess, and these companies should take off. The one thing about the fertilizer industry to remember is management. The reason this is so important is that for decades the fertilizer industry has run on very low margins, and slow methodical growth. The managers of these companies are masters of pinching the penny. They will take the downturn in stride and come out well. No matter what happens bot companies are cheap, and global demand should increase to where it was within the next year. Great hypothesis.