Michael Filloon's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/190028/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1410201/comments?source=feed#comment-19100971 19100971 TPLM: I have sold this position on a quick trade. I am a little worried about their second quarter and how they will book work for Rockpile. Its a big win if they figure out how to separate the two, kindof like we saw at OAS.
Speaking of OAS, I like it and have a conservative target of $42-$43. They continue to show us that their management knows what they are doing and continue to beat numbers.
KOG: I sold today around $9, will buy back if it breaks through. Hoping for a pullback here though so I get it back cheap.
BCEI: also sold today, but also hoping the same as with KOG. Still like both a lot.
FANG: I own it, and should do more work on it. will continue to run with a tight stop. Just continues to rip.
PBF: I continue to own, but sold about 2/3 of the position (just took profits). Still like a lot. Hoping for Texas crude to be shipped to the east coast.
TSO: Sold today, but also like a lot. Gotta go, but will try to keep everyone updated. .]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 23:04:55 -0400 TPLM: I have sold this position on a quick trade. I am a little worried about their second quarter and how they will book work for Rockpile. Its a big win if they figure out how to separate the two, kindof like we saw at OAS.
Speaking of OAS, I like it and have a conservative target of $42-$43. They continue to show us that their management knows what they are doing and continue to beat numbers.
KOG: I sold today around $9, will buy back if it breaks through. Hoping for a pullback here though so I get it back cheap.
BCEI: also sold today, but also hoping the same as with KOG. Still like both a lot.
FANG: I own it, and should do more work on it. will continue to run with a tight stop. Just continues to rip.
PBF: I continue to own, but sold about 2/3 of the position (just took profits). Still like a lot. Hoping for Texas crude to be shipped to the east coast.
TSO: Sold today, but also like a lot. Gotta go, but will try to keep everyone updated. .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1417531/comments?source=feed#comment-19100931 19100931 TPLM: I have sold this position on a quick trade. I am a little worried about their second quarter and how they will book work for Rockpile. Its a big win if they figure out how to separate the two, kindof like we saw at OAS.
Speaking of OAS, I like it and have a conservative target of $42-$43. They continue to show us that their management knows what they are doing and continue to beat numbers.
KOG: I sold today around $9, will buy back if it breaks through. Hoping for a pullback here though so I get it back cheap.
BCEI: also sold today, but also hoping the same as with KOG. Still like both a lot.
FANG: I own it, and should do more work on it. will continue to run with a tight stop. Just continues to rip.
PBF: I continue to own, but sold about 2/3 of the position (just took profits). Still like a lot. Hoping for Texas crude to be shipped to the east coast.
TSO: Sold today, but also like a lot. Gotta go, but will try to keep everyone updated. My ARII has been a bit of a flop, but traded nicely today. I should have been on FTK, but bought a while back and sold and should follow better.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 23:04:15 -0400 TPLM: I have sold this position on a quick trade. I am a little worried about their second quarter and how they will book work for Rockpile. Its a big win if they figure out how to separate the two, kindof like we saw at OAS.
Speaking of OAS, I like it and have a conservative target of $42-$43. They continue to show us that their management knows what they are doing and continue to beat numbers.
KOG: I sold today around $9, will buy back if it breaks through. Hoping for a pullback here though so I get it back cheap.
BCEI: also sold today, but also hoping the same as with KOG. Still like both a lot.
FANG: I own it, and should do more work on it. will continue to run with a tight stop. Just continues to rip.
PBF: I continue to own, but sold about 2/3 of the position (just took profits). Still like a lot. Hoping for Texas crude to be shipped to the east coast.
TSO: Sold today, but also like a lot. Gotta go, but will try to keep everyone updated. My ARII has been a bit of a flop, but traded nicely today. I should have been on FTK, but bought a while back and sold and should follow better.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430591/comments?source=feed#comment-19100921 19100921
I don't like PVA, PQ or EPM very much (but I haven't done a lot of work on the last two). That's not to say that these companies wont go up in stock price, I just like some other companies a little better.
TPLM: I have sold this position on a quick trade. I am a little worried about their second quarter and how they will book work for Rockpile. Its a big win if they figure out how to separate the two, kindof like we saw at OAS.
Speaking of OAS, I like it and have a conservative target of $42-$43. They continue to show us that their management knows what they are doing and continue to beat numbers.
KOG: I sold today around $9, will buy back if it breaks through. Hoping for a pullback here though so I get it back cheap.
BCEI: also sold today, but also hoping the same as with KOG. Still like both a lot.
FANG: I own it, and should do more work on it. will continue to run with a tight stop. Just continues to rip.
PBF: I continue to own, but sold about 2/3 of the position (just took profits). Still like a lot. Hoping for Texas crude to be shipped to the east coast.
TSO: Sold today, but also like a lot. Gotta go, but will try to keep everyone updated. My ARII has been a bit of a flop, but traded nicely today. I should have been on FTK, but bought a while back and sold and should follow better.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 23:03:41 -0400
I don't like PVA, PQ or EPM very much (but I haven't done a lot of work on the last two). That's not to say that these companies wont go up in stock price, I just like some other companies a little better.
TPLM: I have sold this position on a quick trade. I am a little worried about their second quarter and how they will book work for Rockpile. Its a big win if they figure out how to separate the two, kindof like we saw at OAS.
Speaking of OAS, I like it and have a conservative target of $42-$43. They continue to show us that their management knows what they are doing and continue to beat numbers.
KOG: I sold today around $9, will buy back if it breaks through. Hoping for a pullback here though so I get it back cheap.
BCEI: also sold today, but also hoping the same as with KOG. Still like both a lot.
FANG: I own it, and should do more work on it. will continue to run with a tight stop. Just continues to rip.
PBF: I continue to own, but sold about 2/3 of the position (just took profits). Still like a lot. Hoping for Texas crude to be shipped to the east coast.
TSO: Sold today, but also like a lot. Gotta go, but will try to keep everyone updated. My ARII has been a bit of a flop, but traded nicely today. I should have been on FTK, but bought a while back and sold and should follow better.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343481/comments?source=feed#comment-19058631 19058631
I still own KOG, but sold my TPLM position after the last run up. ]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 00:33:40 -0400
I still own KOG, but sold my TPLM position after the last run up. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1322091/comments?source=feed#comment-19052891 19052891 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:13:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1343481/comments?source=feed#comment-19052841 19052841 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:12:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1350561/comments?source=feed#comment-19052811 19052811 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:11:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1369861/comments?source=feed#comment-19052711 19052711 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:09:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1393671/comments?source=feed#comment-19052631 19052631 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:07:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398111/comments?source=feed#comment-19052481 19052481 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:04:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1410201/comments?source=feed#comment-19052461 19052461 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:03:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1417531/comments?source=feed#comment-19052421 19052421 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:02:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430591/comments?source=feed#comment-19052361 19052361 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:00:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1350561/comments?source=feed#comment-19052301 19052301 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:59:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1350561/comments?source=feed#comment-19052171 19052171
Either way (Eagle Ford or Utica) feedstock costs could go way down.]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 20:56:10 -0400
Either way (Eagle Ford or Utica) feedstock costs could go way down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430591/comments?source=feed#comment-19051561 19051561 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:37:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430591/comments?source=feed#comment-19051511 19051511
Anything is possible, but those investors that started buying KOG around $8 like I recommended already have made some money on the stock. Its always important to look at value in these stocks and buy them when they pull back. I don't know for sure, but I would guess over the next 12 months KOG trades for $10-$11/share. The upcoming big swings in production numbers from pad drilling will cause these smaller operators to spike, so if the price of oil holds up (no way to know for sure) I think there could opportunities to make some money in oil and gas in 2013.]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 20:37:06 -0400
Anything is possible, but those investors that started buying KOG around $8 like I recommended already have made some money on the stock. Its always important to look at value in these stocks and buy them when they pull back. I don't know for sure, but I would guess over the next 12 months KOG trades for $10-$11/share. The upcoming big swings in production numbers from pad drilling will cause these smaller operators to spike, so if the price of oil holds up (no way to know for sure) I think there could opportunities to make some money in oil and gas in 2013.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430591/comments?source=feed#comment-19051361 19051361
Cramer is right on this one. Probably the best way to play large cap unconventional oil. As for LLS pricing, is Louisiana Light Sweet which is a crude oil grade. Here is some info that might help describe crude oil grades. http://1.usa.gov/12qg65d]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 20:32:02 -0400
Cramer is right on this one. Probably the best way to play large cap unconventional oil. As for LLS pricing, is Louisiana Light Sweet which is a crude oil grade. Here is some info that might help describe crude oil grades. http://1.usa.gov/12qg65d]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398111/comments?source=feed#comment-18831761 18831761
Thanks for the info. I did not know the light/sweet mix was that low. Right now the differential is real tight in the heavies, but I would guess that will widen in the third quarter.]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 21:43:38 -0400
Thanks for the info. I did not know the light/sweet mix was that low. Right now the differential is real tight in the heavies, but I would guess that will widen in the third quarter.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430591/comments?source=feed#comment-18831251 18831251
There are two very big reasons (Craig's comment below would be three) for cost decreases. I think completion costs may be the most important. Back in the fourth quarter of 2011, costs per stage were $124000 (continental numbers which a little lower than other smaller operators). In the 3rd quarter of 2012 this was down to $98000/stage. In the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of this year it was at $90000/stage. I don't have concrete numbers, but I know that operators are now able to complete three wells (zipper fracs) in the same amount of time as a single well. Not only are completion costs headed lower, they are saving a huge amount of time. I will be real interested in how these costs will come out on paper later in the year. The second is water. Companies that are drilling their own SWD and putting in produced water pipe are saving around $2/bbl in costs. Fresh water lines are saving an additional $2/bbl in costs as well. This has pushed trucking costs down significantly (unless you are hauling the muck left in the bottom of reserve pits, there seems to be a very lucrative business in soil remediation). There are a lot of trucks sitting around and motivated companies to low ball upcoming contracts. Now that the Bakken is getting water lines in, there isn't as much congestion on the roads which looks to be moderating more in the future.]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 21:25:43 -0400
There are two very big reasons (Craig's comment below would be three) for cost decreases. I think completion costs may be the most important. Back in the fourth quarter of 2011, costs per stage were $124000 (continental numbers which a little lower than other smaller operators). In the 3rd quarter of 2012 this was down to $98000/stage. In the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of this year it was at $90000/stage. I don't have concrete numbers, but I know that operators are now able to complete three wells (zipper fracs) in the same amount of time as a single well. Not only are completion costs headed lower, they are saving a huge amount of time. I will be real interested in how these costs will come out on paper later in the year. The second is water. Companies that are drilling their own SWD and putting in produced water pipe are saving around $2/bbl in costs. Fresh water lines are saving an additional $2/bbl in costs as well. This has pushed trucking costs down significantly (unless you are hauling the muck left in the bottom of reserve pits, there seems to be a very lucrative business in soil remediation). There are a lot of trucks sitting around and motivated companies to low ball upcoming contracts. Now that the Bakken is getting water lines in, there isn't as much congestion on the roads which looks to be moderating more in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430591/comments?source=feed#comment-18830361 18830361
Thanks for the info. You are correct about this and I should have probably described this better. A few years ago when Brigham first started speaking about doing zipper fracs, it seemed to think this was the best way to go. I think operators like to do all of the drilling first because it is cheaper to have the completion crew on site without worries about drilling problems slowing things down. When the weather is bad, most of the operators were trying to get as many holes drilled as possible and doing the completions when the weather is better. ]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 20:55:10 -0400
Thanks for the info. You are correct about this and I should have probably described this better. A few years ago when Brigham first started speaking about doing zipper fracs, it seemed to think this was the best way to go. I think operators like to do all of the drilling first because it is cheaper to have the completion crew on site without worries about drilling problems slowing things down. When the weather is bad, most of the operators were trying to get as many holes drilled as possible and doing the completions when the weather is better. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1350561/comments?source=feed#comment-18726241 18726241
I had av unusually large position in PBF, so I sold some after a 10% move in a very short period of time. As for short term downside risk, not real sure. It is possible that WTI/Brent differential could pull back more, but hard to say anything for sure.]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 03:03:51 -0400
I had av unusually large position in PBF, so I sold some after a 10% move in a very short period of time. As for short term downside risk, not real sure. It is possible that WTI/Brent differential could pull back more, but hard to say anything for sure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398111/comments?source=feed#comment-18726171 18726171
Most of the Gulf Coast refiners can run either light/sweet or heavy/sour, depending on differentials. From what I understand the first quarter provided better economics for light and sweet so most of the refineries ran A higher percent of that this past quarter. I expect this will change, but in the short term light and sweet will be more favoriable.]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 02:51:11 -0400
Most of the Gulf Coast refiners can run either light/sweet or heavy/sour, depending on differentials. From what I understand the first quarter provided better economics for light and sweet so most of the refineries ran A higher percent of that this past quarter. I expect this will change, but in the short term light and sweet will be more favoriable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1410201/comments?source=feed#comment-18716621 18716621
I have a price target in the $44-$46 range, so you are still good to go over the next twelve months. I had exited the position after a quick move 10% up. I re-entered after the earnings miss. ]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 16:52:11 -0400
I have a price target in the $44-$46 range, so you are still good to go over the next twelve months. I had exited the position after a quick move 10% up. I re-entered after the earnings miss. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1417531/comments?source=feed#comment-18702281 18702281
Just haven't gotten to them yet. ]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 01:20:45 -0400
Just haven't gotten to them yet. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398111/comments?source=feed#comment-18702201 18702201 Sat, 11 May 2013 01:14:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1410201/comments?source=feed#comment-18608911 18608911
I would lean towards OAS, just because it is a pure Bakken buy that covers a large acreage over a large portion of the play. I do think that a company would have to grossly overpay to get Kodiak, but that is just a feel I have for the company. ]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 23:37:00 -0400
I would lean towards OAS, just because it is a pure Bakken buy that covers a large acreage over a large portion of the play. I do think that a company would have to grossly overpay to get Kodiak, but that is just a feel I have for the company. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398111/comments?source=feed#comment-18608491 18608491
The Utica is much like the Eagle Ford in that it has an oil window, condensate (wet gas) window and gas window. The condensate window has been the most economic because the higher concentrations of natural gas push the liquids towards the well bore at higher pressures. This is needed unless the shale is deep (at least 9000 feet) because a deeper formation has better pressure which pushes the liquids as well. The Utica's oil window is to the west of the play and gets gassier to the east. The Utica's depth is shallow to the north and gets deeper to the south. Because of this the northern part of the oil window is not producing like anticipated. There are some rumors that the oil window will not produce but there is no proof of that. The Utica will be a very good producer in time. I guess what I am trying to say is it is difficult to know where the crude will end up, especially when you look at demographics. I am not saying that you are wrong by any means, but it is tough to know how all of these areas will produce in a few years. Much of the Bakken crude that is being railed is on five year contracts, but after that it is again tough to know.

I wouldn't count on the oil export ban being lifted either. Again I could be wrong but that is a big political topic that most politicians will not touch. I would be all for it, as I am a capitalist but just don't think it will fly, at least anytime soon.

There are deeper formations out there, but they are not cheaper. These formations will cost significantly more to drill and complete, but could very well out produce the Eagle Ford and/or Bakken in its best areas. That is an assumption on my part, but there are plenty of deeper formations, and some haven't been touched yet.]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 23:20:36 -0400
The Utica is much like the Eagle Ford in that it has an oil window, condensate (wet gas) window and gas window. The condensate window has been the most economic because the higher concentrations of natural gas push the liquids towards the well bore at higher pressures. This is needed unless the shale is deep (at least 9000 feet) because a deeper formation has better pressure which pushes the liquids as well. The Utica's oil window is to the west of the play and gets gassier to the east. The Utica's depth is shallow to the north and gets deeper to the south. Because of this the northern part of the oil window is not producing like anticipated. There are some rumors that the oil window will not produce but there is no proof of that. The Utica will be a very good producer in time. I guess what I am trying to say is it is difficult to know where the crude will end up, especially when you look at demographics. I am not saying that you are wrong by any means, but it is tough to know how all of these areas will produce in a few years. Much of the Bakken crude that is being railed is on five year contracts, but after that it is again tough to know.

I wouldn't count on the oil export ban being lifted either. Again I could be wrong but that is a big political topic that most politicians will not touch. I would be all for it, as I am a capitalist but just don't think it will fly, at least anytime soon.

There are deeper formations out there, but they are not cheaper. These formations will cost significantly more to drill and complete, but could very well out produce the Eagle Ford and/or Bakken in its best areas. That is an assumption on my part, but there are plenty of deeper formations, and some haven't been touched yet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1350561/comments?source=feed#comment-18607831 18607831
You will definitely get another shot. I sold the majority of my position in PBF this am. Might have run away a little too soon, there may be more short term downside than upside. It has been a nice run. ]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 22:45:12 -0400
You will definitely get another shot. I sold the majority of my position in PBF this am. Might have run away a little too soon, there may be more short term downside than upside. It has been a nice run. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398111/comments?source=feed#comment-18562721 18562721 Tue, 07 May 2013 22:43:38 -0400