Road Runner's Comments

A123 Systems Looks Headed Back to IPO Price

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:31:21 -0500

My post above was meant to be addressed to sunstar.

A123 Systems Looks Headed Back to IPO Price

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:30:02 -0500

When I read posts like yours, my knee-jerk opinion is that you are a prankster trying to suck someone into a goofy conversation to embarrass them. What you are saying you did is just too ignorant to believe. I’m shocked by people who know so little about the stock market that they have no business buying stocks, but here they are buying stocks.

Well, here goes my advice anyway.

If you actually put your whole 401k into 1 highly speculative stock, then you know nothing about the stock market and should not be in the stock market. There is no such thing as a "sure thing" stock. Us experienced investors know that no one can predict for certain the direction of a stock, especially in any period less than one year. We experienced investors basically play the odds trying to be right more than 60% of the time. Everyone, makes a bad stock pick on occasion. Anyone who says they haven't is lying.

The main reason I take the risks of investing in individual stocks is the sport of it, not because I’m anxious to get rich quick so I can spend the rest of my life doing nothing which seems to be your goal. I enjoy riding this wild horse of the stock market seeing if I have what it takes to out-smart other people. If you are “not into” stock picking like me, you do not belong in individual stocks. Buy a market index fund or something else boring.

India Wants 20GW of Solar Power by 2020

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:50:05 -0500

I don't have much faith in India to accomplish this goal of 20 GW by 2020. But, I have good faith in China to reach its goal of 10GW by 2020. Actually, I see China always having a larger installed base of solar even though India has bigger goals. China has the strong-arm government, the solar manufacturing capacity, and the deep pockets to accomplish such a goal. India is a highly corrupt and bureaucratic country with a weak government. I see big plans like this getting bogged down while every corrupt official tries to get a piece of the pie.

As you can tell, I don't think much of India. I know multiple Indians here in the US. They have plenty of stories of just how corrupt India is. I just heard one last week about how a relative's land was just seized by a powerful person. The relative was unable to get the land back. I know China has corruption problems, but not on the scale of India. I believe that India is growing mainly because people speak English, not because of an overall ambitious drive like in China.

Berkshire Well Positioned for Buffett's Prediction on Electric Cars

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:24:00 -0500

Davewmart, You may be right which would cause a faster adoption of electric vehicles.

On Nov 22 06:07 PM Davewmart wrote:
> Road Runner:
> Your prediction for the likely part of the US vehicle fleet which
> will be electric in 20 years is based on affordable oil and the fleet
> size staying around the same as it is at present, with presetn usage
> patterns.
> The figures I gave from the Uppsala report of an absolute reduction
> in oil supply would indicate much reduced use in the US, as China
> and so on will want their share.
> This means massively increased US prices.
> What would the size of teh US fleet be with oil at $5gallon? At $10gallon.
> At $20gallon?
>
> It seems likely that there will be a lot fewer cars in the US in
> 2030 than now, and that most of those will be electric.
> *Please note that these figures are based on the IEA rexerve estimates,
> the figures which are used by Governments throughout the world, and
> only differ in their output rates by assuming that exploitation rates
> remain constant, whereas the IEA assumes greatly increased rates
> for unexplained reasons - 'cough' - political influence- 'cough'

Berkshire Well Positioned for Buffett's Prediction on Electric Cars

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:52:10 -0500

I am very optimistic about electric cars, much more so than most people. But there is no way that all cars on the road will be electric in 20 years. I think Warren was exaggerating to make a point here.

I think that in 20 years, China will have somewhere between 60% and 80% electric cars because most of their people are starting from no cars, and the government is pushing hard for electric cars. Also, companies like China-based BYD will be able to push its electric cars in China more than outside the US.

It the US, if 40% of cars are electric in 20 years, it will be a phenomenal success. I don't see electric cars becoming price and performance competitive with engine/transmission cars for 8 to 10 years. But, when they do, there will be strong consumer demand because of high gas prices and performance. I'm looking forward to driving a car that doesn't take 1 second to decide what gear to be in when I press the gas pedal at a light.

Even, when electric cars become popular, it will take 15 to 20 years to rotate into electric cars. People won't just dump their old cars for a new one immediately. So I'm looking for 30 years to get to 70% plus in the US.

Berkshire Well Positioned for Buffett's Prediction on Electric Cars

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:32:15 -0500

DLB40, You are making a logic mistake. You are comparing a fuel to a technology. If the fuel supply is cut off, then the US comes instantly to a halt. But, if the batteries and electric car components, like rare metals in motors, is cut off, will can still use the ones we previously purchased. The US economy doesn’t come to an instant stop. We have time to adjust.

You are comparing apples and oranges.

On Nov 22 12:53 PM DLB40 wrote:
> Batteries will only change our dependence on Overseas oil from the
> Oil cartel ,to dependence to China and their Battery cartel. BTW
> please check on the pollution from battery component mining and the
> battery production pollution. Net gain for the USA is Zero. Natural
> gas is ours. Net gain to the USA 100%

Berkshire Well Positioned for Buffett's Prediction on Electric Cars

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:07:04 -0500

Gandalph, Your link is to a John Peterson article. John Peterson is not some authoritative person on electric cars. He is just a lawyer that is arguing his pocketbook. He cherry-picks and misinterprets information. He gets huge amounts of criticism that he and his groupies just blow off.

Who are you going to believe - Warren Buffett who has a long, proven track record of great insight into the future, or John Peterson? Please everyone, take John Peterson with a grain of salt.

On Nov 22 12:13 PM Gandalph wrote:
> Please refer to:
> seekingalpha.com/artic...?
>
> It is a very clear explanation of why the electric vehicle is a terrible
> idea. Recently books have been written on scientific illiteracy in
> our society. If people writing these articles had the most rudimentary
> knowledge of physics and thermodynamics, this folly would just go
> away!

Cramer's Stop Trading! What the Dell (11/20/09)

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:33:42 -0500

Jon T, I agree. I just upgraded my laptop from Windows Vista to Windows 7, hoping it would improve my user experience. It didn't. I don't understand what Microsoft is doing with Windows. I liked the look and feel of Windows XP, but I hate Vista and 7.

I'm now thinking of looking into an Apple - a thought that didn't even cross my mind before.

Also, I noticed something in the last 6 months. Many of the "cool people" are getting Apples. You may know these people as the "see and be seen" crowd. Just look around any Starbucks for the people with expensive cloths, expensive purses, expensive sunglasses, perfect haircuts, and nice tans. Apple laptops seem to have become a status symbol like driving a German car or giant SUV. And, where the hip crowd goes, many of us (the wannabes) are soon to follow.

If you don’t live around upper middle class “keeping up with the Jones” types like me, you may not notice this.

Also, young people are begging their parents to buy them Apple laptops. It’s now “all Apple, all the time” with their electronic stuff. Now, that laptop prices have plummeted, paying a couple hundred extra dollars for an Apple is worth it to get something “cool” and “hip”.

All of this is a bad sign for Microsoft, Windows, and the PC industry. Apple is reaching "critical mass" of enthusiasm and market share.

On Nov 22 12:12 PM Jon T wrote:
>
> If Dell and HP cannot find a significantly better operating system
> than Windows sometime soon, it will indeed become a terminal decline...

Rapid Transition to Grid Enabled Vehicles Not Possible or Desirable

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 00:12:41 -0500

John Peterson, I'm sure glad the rest of the world is ignoring you, especially the Chinese who know that electric vehicles are the future and are hard driving in that direction. The only people giving your ideas respect are your groupies on your posts, and maybe the conservative cult zombies that think there is no such thing as global warming because that would be giving into people, thus showing weakness (my bother-in-law is a arrogant conservative cult zombie).

I totally agree with GhostOfSpec, and I mostly agree with jerrydd.

I don't have time this time to pick apart your argument like I did when you misused the Gartner chart. But, that's what you depend on to make your points - slinging so much mud that you run your opponents off their feet. It's a huge job to pick through all the rubbish you post and show the flaws. When I did that you when you misinterpreted the Gartner chart, you just kept countering my arguments with indirect comments that I had to then counter. Ultimately, you never did directly address my argument though I badgered you to do so. You just accused me of technical nitpicking.

You are a master lawyer, John. You are a master cherry-picker and debater. You can argue any side of an argument. Right now, slamming electric vehicles is economically beneficial to you, so that's what you argue.

Rapid Transition to Grid Enabled Vehicles Not Possible or Desirable

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:28:20 -0500

Mayascribe, You are reading way too much into the run-up and subsequent pull-back of A123 stock after the IPO. This has more to do with the dynamics of how stocks normally react after IPOs than it is a verdict on the future of A123 as a company. You obviously know very little about stock investing. Often, in the short term stocks move to forces that are totally unrelated to the performance and future of a company.

Are you one of those guys that stare at stock prices all day trying to divine the meaning out of every move? I believe that Warren Buffet is right in ignoring short term moments in stock, and especially now where it seems that very few people care about where a stock is going more than 12 months out. Everybody is under huge pressure to perform in the next couple of quarters or get axed. IPOs are a good way for insider, big-boys to make a quick profit.

On Nov 20 03:29 PM Mayascribe wrote:
> John: Another gem of an article!
>
> Remember right after A123's IPO, the stock zooming up to $28/share,
> when I wanted to make a bet that the stock would be under $17.00/
> share by the end of the year?
>
> Right now -----> $14.94
>
> Incredible oxymoron that Uncle Sammy threw billions at the battery
> industry, which dollars are now in part being used to lobby for a
> flawed, irrational, and very expensive and outrageously moronic idea.
>
>
> GEV should stand for "Government Errors Violently"
>
> I truly appreciate your vigilance.

SunPower Clings to March Lows

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:38:29 -0500

I see SunPower as a hold right now - don't buy and don't sell. Around $22 is a very good price to buy this stock if and when we know the full extent of this accounting issue. But, not before. I find it very difficult to believe SunPower will not remain a solar powerhouse with its superb product, so I can not recommend a sell right now at these very depressed prices.

The statement above "the company believes there may have been unsubstantiated accounting entries made in the first three quarters of 2009" is very unnerving for me. Is this fraud by middle management in the Philippines? Is there money missing?

I will not recommend SunPower at any price if management does not give us enough detail about what happened. I must be able to form a clear picture from their explanation. In other words, I want to know the exact cause of every one of these "unsubstantiated accounting entries", how this will be prevented in the future, and whose head will roll.

And yes, I demand someone's head to roll which may include the CFO. The stock market will not respect SunPower for years unless there is a perception that the company has purged itself of incompetent and/or unethical people. Sorry, the “overseas accounting learning curve” argument will not cut it for me, and I suspect, for many investors.

Suntech: Optimistic About Q4 Growth Prospects

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 13:19:41 -0500

> For fiscal 2010, Suntech expects at least 75% shipment growth in
> 2010. The company targets to expand to 1.4GW of PV cell and
> module production capacity by the middle of 2010, of which 450MW
> will be Pluto technology-enabled.

These are some very optimistic projections for 2010. Some solar pundits say the solar industry is not being realistic about solar growth in the near future (1 to 3 years) because of the possibility of reduced government subsidies, notably in Germany and Spain. Frankly, I don’t know if these pundits are correct.

There are 2 strong countering forces going on in solar today. Some countries may cut back subsidies, but solar is getting cheaper and the world-wide political pressure to curb greenhouse gases is getting stronger. China is “full speed ahead” on alternative energy, and it has the deep pockets and strong-arm political system to do it.

The US however is in a political and economic quagmire. The US seems to be “stuck in neutral” in dealing with any difficult political issue because of the wildly differing and combative political groups. In my opinion, it is hard to tell where US solar policy will go. It is a big question mark.

SunPower: Accounting Mistakes Could Lead to Financial Restatement

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:53:37 -0500

Another thing. You make it sound like this accounting issue is a permanent thing - like SunPower is headed the way of AOL. At worse, this could turn out to be the tip of the iceberg for other accounting issues that could mean that SunPower is a much less profitable company than they led us to believe. Even in this worst case scenario, SunPower will still be one of the powerhouse solar companies. They will still have the best product on the market with a well established, strong distribution network. They are not going away.

On Nov 18 10:11 AM Fred W wrote:

> Ever try to do a deal with SunPower in 2007-8??
> If you did, and you weren't a Fortune 500, you got the shaft. Generally
> SunPower is run by opportunists with little regard for ethics--even
> SPWR's public relations people were openly arrogant at functions--even
> ones as low key as the 2007 Solar Decathlon.
> Beyond this, SPWR made strong arming installers/integrators part
> of its business model.
> You made a lot of enemies while on top SPWR...many us are enjoying
> your fall.

SunPower: Accounting Mistakes Could Lead to Financial Restatement

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:45:29 -0500

You make SunPower sound like a good company to invest in. I hate working with tough, ruthless management. But, I like investing with them.

On Nov 18 10:11 AM Fred W wrote:
> Ever try to do a deal with SunPower in 2007-8??
> If you did, and you weren't a Fortune 500, you got the shaft. Generally
> SunPower is run by opportunists with little regard for ethics--even
> SPWR's public relations people were openly arrogant at functions--even
> ones as low key as the 2007 Solar Decathlon.
> Beyond this, SPWR made strong arming installers/integrators part
> of its business model.
> You made a lot of enemies while on top SPWR...many us are enjoying
> your fall.

Accounting Irregularities Eclipse SunPower

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:52:21 -0500

What are/were the accounting irregularities at Exxon?

On Nov 17 12:49 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> As a former accountant who has become financially independent solely
> from allocating capital let me add a few things
>
> Dont EVER get involved with a company that has or HAD any accounting
> irregularties
>
> AIG EXXON jackson hewitt cendantjust to name a few were disasters
>
>
> You can never get another reputation

Accounting Irregularities Eclipse SunPower

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 23:43:06 -0500

It looks like SunPower's stock price (SPWRA) is heading for the toilet, like maybe below $18 a share. Though I'm still a big believer in SunPower, I can’t recommend this stock at any price until this accounting issue is fully explained, and management asserts that there are no other accounting issues.

Accounting issues are often an indication of much deeper issues. But, I find it very hard to believe that SunPower has deeper issues because this is a real company with a real high-quality product in a fast growing market. Their books make sense, though some of the numbers may be off by up to 20%.

But, even though I believe the stock below $22 is a very good price, I just can’t ignore accounting issues and recommend it.

Cash for Clunkers: A Man-Made Disaster

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:17:49 -0500

William,

You sound like the Hoover administration after the crash of 1929. They implemented the fiscal and monetary constraints that should have been in place to prevent the 1929 crash. This fiscal and monetary tightening after the crash made the Great Depression much worse.

You are like so many people who don't understand economics. You think there is a “one size fits all” solution to every economic situation. There is not. The economic tools to recover from a deep recession are the exact opposite of the economic tools to prevent, or at least dampen, a coming asset-bubble induced recession. Timing is everything.

It’s just like driving down a road – sometimes you adjust the steering wheel left and sometimes you adjust the steering wheel right. Your focus is not on the act of turning the steering wheel – it is on going down the middle of the road.

On Nov 16 01:14 PM William Legrand wrote:

> The reason we are in this financial mess is because of free-flowing
> credit, subsequent market bubbles, stagnant wage growth, and near-zero
> consumer savings. Now the USG solution is a return to free-flowing
> credit and artificially low prices thanks to huge taxpayer subsidies,
> all while the average consumer remains knee deep in high-interest
> debt, little or no savings, no wage growth (if not wage decline),
> and imminent risk of unemployment. Yep, "brilliant" move.

Cash for Clunkers: A Man-Made Disaster

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:15:45 -0500

US Business Cycles:
(from National Bureau of Economic Research)
Years: Pcnt Contraction Months
from Peak Between
to Bottom: Downturns:
1854-1919 (16 cycles) 22 48
1919-1945 (6 cycles) 18 53
1945-2001 (10 cycles) 10 67

Notice how the average depth of the downturns has dropped from 22 percent during 1854 thru 1919 (small, laissez faire government), to 10 percent during 1945 through 2001 (larger and more activist government). The time between downturns has also increased from 48 months to 67 months. This shows how bigger government has greatly dampened the business cycle. Data from www.nber.org/cycles.html for the US economy.

A larger, more activist government does not prevent business cycles, it only dampens them. You are trying to put words in my mouth by saying "High government spending and boom and bust". What I am saying is that this banking crisis would have turned into a multi year depression if it wasn't for the high government spending.

Also, you said "the economic theory you discuss has been the determining the economic policy that led the world into this mess". We have not been living under the economic theory that I discuss. The US government has rolled back many of the protections that were put in place after the Great Depression, such as glass-steagall which separated investment banking from commercial banking.

Also, left unregulated was the credit default swap market. This is the huge market that created the domino-effect collapse of AIG and other banks after Lehman Brothers went under. The credit default swap market allowed betting on the failure of institution, etc. without any relationship with the any relationship to that institution. It was pure gambling. This type of off-market betting was made illegal after the Great Depression. The credit default market should become regulated and visible on an exchange. Another lesson from the Great Depression that was ignored in the lead up to this financial crisis.

Your said, “As a final note, you have not mentioned whether you would accept the garbage compactor at the end of the production line.”. Yes I did answer this question. Wasteful, stimulus-oriented production is good during a severe economic crisis, like now, but is bad during a normal economy that is not dangling on the edge of a deflationary death-spiral depression. Cash for Clunkers in 2010 would be economically dumb because the crisis will be over by then.

Note that I was for bailing out US auto manufactures during this crisis in order to keep people employed. I see Cash for Clunkers as part of this bail-out. But, starting in the second half of 2010, the government should let them fail if they need more money.

On Nov 15 02:10 PM Cynicus Economicus wrote:
> static.seekingalpha.co...">
>
>
> Roadrunner: You say:
>
> " A large private sector and a small public sector creates regular
> and large boom and bust cycles (study the economy of the 1800s through
> the Great Depression that was full booms and busts)"
>
> Take a look at the UK. High government spending and boom and bust.
> Gordon Brown promised no more boom and bust, even as he increased
> the government's share of spending. The UK is now facing a fiscal
> crisis. I am not so sure that 'the solid economic theory' you discuss
> is so solid. Furthermore, the economic theory you discuss has been
> the determining the economic policy that led the world into this
> mess. Perhaps it is time to revise those text books?
>
> As a final note, you have not mentioned whether you would accept
> the garbage compactor at the end of the production line.

Cash for Clunkers: A Man-Made Disaster

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:58:18 -0500

The author said,
>In some ways it is an identical process to running a
>production line with a garbage compactor at the end of
>the production line. As each unit comes off the production
>line, the compactor simply crushes the item. The result
>of such a measure would be that the demand for the item
>might never be met, and the production line would be kept
>endlessly busy. Output would be maintained, GDP figures
>would be positive, and the economy would apparently be
>doing well as the result of this ongoing activity.

But, this is what has been happening to a large part in the private sector for the last 5 years. We have greatly overproduced housing in the US in the last 5 years. But, this extra housing, along with the fact that much of it is expensive and oversized, is a waste of resources just like your imaginary factory that in the final step destroys the product it just created. Much of the housing set idle during this recession, and some of it (even new houses) was bulldozed by the banks because it was more expensive to maintain them than to destroy them.

And, allowing so much money to go to the wealthy in the last several years (thanks to Bush tax cuts which, thankfully, will be rolled back at the end of 2010) leads the wealthy to buy extra houses, to buy multiple expensive vehicles, and to take expensive vacations. These purchases may employ people, but they have no long term economic growth value. From an economic standpoint, this is just as wasteful as your factory that destroys its product in the last stage. These purchases are just “welfare” for the working class.

It’s easier to visualize how a factory that destroys its product in the final stage is a waste than to visualize how a rich person’s third house, that sits idle most of the time, is a waste. That is why the conservative cult gets so much traction among its believers when it rips on government for being so wasteful and praises the private sector for being so efficient. These believers are not thinking through the true economic value of different products. They are only having a naïve, emotional, knee-jerk reaction to the “sound” of issues that is beat into their heads by the conservative cult leadership.

Solid economic theory paints a different picture that is more of a balance between the private and public sectors. The free-market private sector often “breaks down”. The private sector will not take big long-term risks as in developing basic technology or creating infrastructure (like our current electric grid which is in desperate need of upgrade). The private sector will “cherry pick” customers as with insurance leaving the most needy and elderly without insurance. A large private sector and a small public sector creates regular and large boom and bust cycles (study the economy of the 1800s through the Great Depression that was full booms and busts). The private sector will stymie innovation through uncompetitive actions via monopolies, back-room price-fixing agreements, etc. The private sector is not concerned about the “external costs” of some products like pollution from burning fossil fuels. The private sector leads to great inequities of wealth that limits the size of the educated, working middle class. The economic strength of a country is its middle class. The government program of the GI Bill after World War 2 created the educated middle class of the US, and created the great university system of this country that has led to countless numbers of inventions and innovations that made the US the economic powerhouse it is today.

The only counterbalance to these free market “break downs” is the public sector. Sure, the public sector (government) is not an efficient organization, but it is the only alternative.

Cash for Clunkers: A Man-Made Disaster

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:55:48 -0500

Cash for Clunkers would be a bad idea during normal economic times because it is a poor use of government money.

But, during this crisis it is a good idea because it causes people to spend money they would not normally spend. For every dollar of government stimulus spent on CashForClunkers, the economy gets some multiple of it in stimulus. It’s an amplified “bang for the buck”.

Anyone who does not understand why government needs to spend now to stimulate the economy to prevent it from spiraling down into a deflationary depression, does not understand economics. A deflation-driven self-reinforcing depression is one of the great "evils" in economics. It has to be studied to be appreciated and greatly feared.

Solar Market Declines for First Time Ever

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:24:43 -0500

Not all solar manufacturers are affected by the world glut in solar product. SunPower will be capacity for the first half of 2010.

Solar Market Declines for First Time Ever

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:22:46 -0500

Keep preaching it, jerrydd.

All this talk about the short term troubles of solar, and how solar company consolidation is coming (which is natural when an industry matures) is clouding the fact that the few big solar companies left will have a great market in the coming years.

On Nov 13 01:14 PM jerrydd wrote:

>
> Any solar company that can't sell $2/wt retail will die. Big subsidies
> are about over with just moderate ones that will remain.
>
> But there is a huge market out there in home units. The Solar companies
> that go after that market with 1kw plug and play modules including
> panels, inverters and mountings at around $3-3.50/wt will make a
> fortune. Because no land, transmission line, overhead or stockholder
> cost and utilities doubling their costs, home/building units have
> paybacks in 35-40% of the time of solar/wind farms with pure savings
> after that.
>
> In many locations they will have 1500kwhrs/yr or about $225/yr per
> peak kw. After 30% tax credit it will pay off in 4 yrs or less, depending
> on site. Then higher profit for 15+ yrs after that from increased
> electric rates,/costs/savings/s... profit. This is about 20%/yr+
> investment profit. Hard to beat that on any investment.
>
> So invest in your own units rather than a company. A combo of well
> done solar/wind can give a nice income boost by selling the power
> with wind running about $1.5k/kw.

Oversupply Issues Plague Solar Manufacturers

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:00:54 -0500

MichaelAK, There is something else inaccurate about your statement. This article only points out how some of the weaker solar companies are closing US solar plants. But, the big, strong solar companies are planning on opening US manufacturing plants because the increase in US manufacturing cost is more than offset by lower shipping costs to their US customers. SunPower is one of these companies.

On Nov 06 05:20 PM MichaelAK wrote:

> So much for Green Tech Jobs even those are going overseas as a fast
> rate. We need corporate tax, regulator and labor laws reforms if
> we are ever going to rebuild our manufacturing base. Heck when the
> promise of the new Green Manufacturing Revolution goes overseas you
> have a domestic problem that needs fixing at the Macro Level to correct
> the inablances in cost.

Oversupply Issues Plague Solar Manufacturers

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:49:31 -0500

SunPower (SPWRA and SPWRB) does not have an oversupply problem. They will be capacity constrained for the first half of 2010 until new production comes online mid year.

Oversupply Issues Plague Solar Manufacturers

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:44:07 -0500

MichaelAK, You are missing a huge part of the labor in solar - the installation labor which is 35% plus of the price of an installed solar system. This work can not be outsourced.

Also, the US is still the number 1 manufacture in the world. The loss of US manufacturing has been far overstated. The news media loves to talk about job losses because it gets people to tune in.

On Nov 06 05:20 PM MichaelAK wrote:

> So much for Green Tech Jobs even those are going overseas as a fast
> rate. We need corporate tax, regulator and labor laws reforms if
> we are ever going to rebuild our manufacturing base. Heck when the
> promise of the new Green Manufacturing Revolution goes overseas you
> have a domestic problem that needs fixing at the Macro Level to correct
> the inablances in cost.

Motorola's Droid Comes in Peace - For Now

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:28:48 -0500

I don't trust Motorola to build a good phone. The Razor was all the rage a few years back, but I dumped mine after a week for an LG phone because the mic and speaker were poor, in my opinion.

Motorola is a poorly managed company, and has been that way for decades.

Ancestry.com: Finally, a Quality IPO

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:04:56 -0500

What? A123 Systems (AONE) was not a quality IPO?

Will Solar Crash the Smart Grid?

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:48:08 -0500

Another thing that may happen as electric grid instability increases as home solar increases is that building code may be changed to require a battery pack be installed with each new home solar system. With the right programming, this battery pack would smooth solar output for when clouds pass over, etc. The battery would also store power during peak solar hours, then discharge it a few hours later when energy use peaks for air conditioning.

Will Solar Crash the Smart Grid?

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:49:07 -0500

If electric utilities are unable to solve grid fluctuations issues, thus limiting many people from getting full use from their home solar systems, then there may by another solution for homeowners – go 90% + off the grid with their home and go 90% + from home electricity for their car. I say “may” above because the solution I am about to propose is not totally proven, but it looks to have good potential for success.

This almost totally “off the grid” and “out of the gas station” solution would use solar panels, home batteries, a natural gas cogeneration system, and an electric vehicle.

There are multiple companies developing natural gas cogeneration systems that generate electricity plus heat water and the house. Though they are in the development stage, they look promising with good efficiencies because the latent heat is used for other purposes instead of being lost as is the case with a utility scale natural gas fired plants.

Another “if” is battery development. But, good, steady progress is being made.

And, solar prices are dropping every year, and will continue to drop for several years until installing solar panels is a smart thing for economic reasons.

Note how these 4 pieces work together to create steady, reliable, 24/7 electricity (and home heat and hot water). When solar is at its peak, it is used to power the house, charge the house battery pack, and charge the car battery pack. When solar is down, the natural gas cogeneration system kicks in with assistance from the home battery to smooth power. The car battery can also be used to smooth power and minimize natural gas usage.

Smart utility metering could be added to the mix so that the electricity source for charging the car overnight is either from the electric grid or from the home cogeneration system, whichever is cheaper.

Will Solar Crash the Smart Grid?

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:15:43 -0500

This seems to be a messy problem with no clear, quick, "one size fits all" solution. There are many factors here including unpredictable human behavior (how will people program their smart appliances and smart energy storage devices to respond to hourly changes in incoming and outgoing utility electric rates on the smart grid?). There are multiple solutions to test (which takes time) such as how far can smart metering go in offsetting the energy fluctuations, how distributed and of what type should grid energy storage systems be?

This will take complex modeling, simulation, and testing. There are many modeling questions that need to be answered like “do we model and plan for weeks with little sun from 100 year weather conditions?”

Bottom line. This is going to take many years, much modeling, much testing, several pilot projects, much monitoring, many dollars spent in converting to a smart grid, many dollars spent on grid energy storage, much legislation changes affecting home owners. Look forward to many years (like decades) of expensive, political, technical, problem-ridden evolution.

I think of the early years of local networking where things like “data storms” used to shut down networks. It took 2 decades to get to the stable data networks of today.