Road Runner

Energy Storage on the Smart Grid: 99.45% Cheap and 0.55% Cool

John Peterson, You comment above that starts with "Dirk, the costs of wind and solar keep falling ..." is right on the mark. Good job of spelling it out so concisely.

Li-ion Battery Technologies: Understanding Their Development Path

John you made some important points that I want to re-emphasize.

You said, "Unless the market forecasts I've seen are seriously misguided, manufacturers of all classes of energy storage devices will have a hard time keeping up with expected demand.". I whole-heartedly agree. We are entering a new revolutionary era – the alternate energy revolution. This revolution depends heavily on energy storage for smoothing out production fluctuations from wind and solar, and for electric and hybrid-electric vehicles.

You said, “I’m convinced that near-term revenue growth in the Li-ion group will be slower than most people expect, while near-term revenue growth in the lead-acid group will be faster than most people expect.”. This may be true. As revolutionary as the LiFePO4 battery is, it will still take years to get it into mass use. I believe that GM did not go with A123 batteries because they didn’t believe A123 could produce the batteries in scale. It takes a lot of time and capital to build out the manufacturing infrastructure for any new technology. John made an interesting point several posts back in saying that the lead-acid companies have an advantage in that they already have the manufacturing infrastructure in place to ramp up quickly if the lead-carbon battery proves itself.

One caveat on the above point. Keep an eye on the Chinese Lithium Iron Phosphate battery manufacture BYD (1211.HK and BYDDF.PK). They are an extremely aggressive company. They take a low-tech, high-labor approach to making batteries that may be able to ramp up scale quickly without expensive capital expenditures. This approach may lead to quality issues, like with Thundersky batteries, so keep an eye on that. Because BYD is more interested in market share than in profits, it may keep a downward pressure on LiFePO4 battery prices hurting domestic LiFePO4 battery manufacturers like Valence. So watch out there. But, as John alluded to in this article, BYD may be too busy keeping up with the Asia market to hurt the US manufactures (my first point above).

Are Energy Storage Investors Chasing Their Own Tails?

Thanks much John. You are a great source of information.

Are Energy Storage Investors Chasing Their Own Tails?

GE seems to make smart decisions as to what markets and products to pursue. This battery is just one example. They are heavy into new economy energy products like wind turbines, high-efficiency jet engines, etc. When the storm is over with the big finance side of their house, I believe their stock will do well with their vast portfolio of solid, new economy products. Looks like Jack Welch left the company with good decision makers. That is why I am an investor with them.

Are Energy Storage Investors Chasing Their Own Tails?

So GE is making sodium nickel-chloride batteries and not sodium sulfer batteries as reported earlier?

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

John said, "I also really appreciate informed readers like you that keep me honest and on my toes.".

Like you, I appreciate yours and everyone else’s input.

The Internet is great! The Socratic method of approaching knowledge through debate is reborn here. In our hyper-sensitive politically-correct culture it long ago died a bitter death.

Sorry, cable TV, with its extremely short attention span, is not the Socratic method. It’s mostly just an exchange of buzz words and jabs.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

speculawyer posted above.
>On Apr 08 04:43 PM Road Runner wrote:
>> Thanks John for the explanation.
>>
>> So basically they built an armor plated housing for the battery in
>> the Volt so they could use the unstable Li-ion polymer (non phosphate)
>> chemistry. I'm scratching my head. I could never own, or let anyone
>> I know own, a car that has a Lithium Polymer battery in it, no matter
>> how armor plated it is. If you don't know why, check out some Lithium
>> battery fire videos on YouTube. Then, picture a fire 500 times that
>> size under your car. Nasty doesn't describe it.
>
>See . . . I told you it was very confusing and misleading.
>This guy fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

If an electrical engineer like myself, and someone who has been reading a lot about this stuff, gets scared about the "armor plating" in the Volt, then Mr and Mrs. Public is probably going to be scared. This armor plating is a very bad statement no matter how safe the battery is. If LiMn2O4 is safe, then why armor plate it?

LiMn2O4 will start to breakdown at about 250 degrees Celsius (about 482 degrees Fahrenheit). Smoke and fire can ensue after that. This is much safer than Lithium Cobalt batteries, but not safe enough for the extreme conditions that can happen in an auto accident. Sorry – I’m not putting my family in that. The LiFePO4 battery only starts to breakdown at 800 degrees Celsius (1472 degrees Fahrenheit). These 2 batteries are not in the same league when it comes to safety.

P.S. I read somewhere that the real reason why GM did not pick A123 and its LiFePO4 battery was because they didn't trust A123 to manufacture it in volume (there might have been some price issues here too). That seems like a more plausible answer than storing more energy and thermal dissipation. I calculated in a previous post that an A123 battery pack could fully fit under the back seat. And, there would be NO need for armor plating. Only some thermal management as LiFePO4 batteries run very cool compared to other batteries.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

From everything I've read, if a Li-ion battery chemistry does not contain phospate (PO4) it is too unstable to use in a car. The difference between the ignition temperature of a phospate battery and a non phospate battery is hundreds of degrees. They are not even in the same league.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

Thanks John for the explanation.

So basically they built an armor plated housing for the battery in the Volt so they could use the unstable Li-ion polymer (non phosphate) chemistry. I'm scratching my head. I could never own, or let anyone I know own, a car that has a Lithium Polymer battery in it, no matter how armor plated it is. If you don't know why, check out some Lithium battery fire videos on YouTube. Then, picture a fire 500 times that size under your car. Nasty doesn't describe it.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

Since we got on the subject of battery size in the Chevy Volt, I want to say that I am baffled by why the battery takes up so much space in the Volt. See links posted by Coby Richmondville for interior view of the Volt.

Here is a rough space calculation using 646 of the A123 model 32157 cells. These are LiFePO4 cells which, if anything, are slightly less dense than the Li-ion manganese batteries committed to the Volt.

Each cell delivers about 30 Whr of energy (I believe the spec may be 32 but I am being conservative here). So 646 cells will deliver about 19.4 KWhr of energy (646 * 30). This is well above the 16 KWhr battery that was originally specified for the Volt (maybe the spec has changed some recently).

Each cell is a cylinder. It is about 6.18 inches long and 1.26 inches in diameter. I believe that all 646 cells can be put under the back seat of most sedans. Each cell would sit up on end so that would take up about 7 inches of vertical space. That’s very doable. There would be 38 cells across for a width of 49 inches (38 * 1.26 plus an extra inch for overlap). That’s doable. The rows are “honeycombed” together so each row only uses about 1.09 inches front to back (geometry – I won’t give details). So, 17 rows fits in about 18 inches. And, 17 * 38 is 646.

I realize that this is not an optimum configuration. But, it shows that the battery should fit totally under the back seat and not take up any of the center divider of the car. I’m baffled.

Am I missing something?. Please correct me if I am wrong anywhere in these calculations.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

Coby Richmondville, Dead on! You can only seat 4 in a Volt. That sucks! I only have 1 child but I sometimes end up with 3 kids in the back seat. You parents know the multiplier effect that starts with the words "Dad, can you give a ride home to ...". Saying “no” to one of her friends because I don’t have the space would be horrible. It not only lets her down, but its like apologizing for not driving a “land yacht”.

I would never own a car that only seats 4 even though 95% of the time it's only me in the car.

Surprisingly, the Toyota Prius is very roomy inside. I was shocked the first time I sat in one. Leave it to Toyota to get it right and for General Motors to screw it up.

Also, by the time Chevy comes out with this $30K to $40K Volt, Toyota and Honda will have much cheaper hybrids out.

Please, bring on bankruptcy for GM and put them out of their misery. I know – even in bankruptcy, they will be operational and probably building the Volt. But, at least there is a chance (just a chance) to get a major flushing of management.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

Any idea when the A123 IPO will be? I still can not find a date.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

Any time I hear the word "Chrysler" I immediately think "toast". It's hard for me to take anything serious that involves Chrysler. But, I could be wrong.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

There is a critical need to store energy so that alternate energy can become part of the "base" production capacity in the US and the world. Base production is the energy generation that is available 24/7. Currently, solar and wind are limited mostly to supplemental energy production, with coal and natural gas providing base load. So don’t underestimate John’s claim about the huge potential for battery companies. If they deliver on the promise of cheaper, higher energy density products, then their market will be expand greatly.

Here’s one tiny example. Alaska’s remote towns are finding TODAY that wind power is more economical for electricity production than diesel because, though Alaska has plenty of crude, it is very expensive to get diesel fuel to remote villages. Diesel there today (yes Feb 2009) is around $5 per gallon (ouch!). But, the one thing that is holding back wind from becoming an even bigger piece of electricity generation is unreliable winds. Cheap energy storage is needed to smooth out the peaks and valleys.

Hawaii is similar to Alaska, but not as extreme. It is trying to become an alternate energy economy with it’s great sun and wind resources. They are turning the once Pineapple growing only island of Lanai into a giant wind and solar farm. They will use undersea power cables to get that power to Honolulu on Oahu. Note that geothermal is mostly limited to the big island where the population is small. It is expensive to import fossil fuel to the islands so gas and diesel prices are high. Gas runs $.50 higher than the mainland (island lingo) national average. Energy storage is needed on Lanai to make full use of the undersea cables.

Then there is the giant Texas wind farm of T. Boone Pickens and partners. Along with hundreds of wind turbines will be a coal fired and natural gas fired plant. These are needed to offset uneven winds so the expensive power lines running to cities hundreds of miles away will be fully utilized all the time. Wouldn’t it be nice to replace the coal and natural gas plants with batteries or some other type of energy storage, and put up more wind turbines?

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John, Good reading and good points. (Are you surprised to hear that from me after our lively debate on Lithium Iron Phosphate vs Lead Carbon batteries?).

Yes - lots of small funding is much better than large funding. I've come across hundreds of possible significant technical advancements in the alternate energy sector in the last 5 years, but no one knows what will be the 5 to 10 winners that actually make a difference in volume production. When the government picks winners and heavily pushes them, like ethanol from corn (gasp), it often has bad consequences. Let the marketplace determine the winners, but give many companies and technologies a little push. I just saw where Tesla (the electric car company) is getting $250 million to help build a factory. That's great - enough to make progress, but not enough to push out competitors.