Road Runner

Efficient Manufacturing Techniques Critical to Solar Cell Future

This seams more like an advertisement for Intermolecular than it is a topic for discussion.

In my mind, the time for such rapid testing equipment is over. I believe there will be very few, if any, new solar companies entering the space. We are entering the mature phase in solar manufacturing. I see consolidation coming. Any new technical advances will just be absorbed into existing powerhouse solar companies that have the R and D budget for such developments.

Chinese Solar Stocks Become More Attractive on First Solar Deal

Stone Fox Capital, Have you ever been in a desert? There is miles and miles of nothing. And, I am mean nothing. I lived in the Mojave desert, near Edwards Air Force Base, for a while. The Mojave desert goes on and on and on, and it is a small desert. Inner Mongolia is the Gobi desert which is much larger.

I have this vivid memory from 20 years ago driving to San Diego from Illinois. Right after we crossed into California from Arizona there was a sign that read "next services 100 miles".


On Sep 10 04:17 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> when i read that it was going to take 25 sq miles to generate the
> same electricity as 2 coal plants it made me wonder about solar in
> general. That is a huge amount of land.

Moore's Law for the Solar Market

No matter how you look at this, the total installed cost of solar systems are going to continuously drop at a significant rate for several years. We are no where near the end of innovation in solar components.

In was only last year, 2008, that micro invertors for solar came on the market. These allow conversion of DC to AC for each solar panel, making the overall system more efficient by eliminating the bad ripple effect that one shaded or dirty solar panel can have on the rest of the system. Some solar companies are integrating these into their solar panels making installation simpler, quicker, and cheaper.

Stay tuned.

Six Reasons for Cloudy Skies on the Solar Energy Industry

People - stop comparing the current situation with the 1970s. We are in a totally different world now.

First, There is a real oil crisis now and not an artificial one created by the Arab oil cartel. In the 1970s there were no emerging markets with billions of people expanding at 10%/year. Also, we have burned 30 years worth of oil since then and exhausted almost all of the "cheap" oil in the world. Oil prices will not drop back to low prices for many years like they did in the 1980s. I just heard an oil analysts say that oil below $70/barrel is destructive to developing new oil, which could lead to a sharp price increase when normal demand returns.

Second, we have progressed greatly with solar technology since the 1970s. We CAN see the light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to grid parity. There is no new technology that needs to be developed like there was in the 1970s. It’s just a matter of manufacturing and installation innovation, and production scale. Solar will be at grid parity before any of these “backyard”, “vaporware” nuclear power plants come on line.

Does a Move into Solar Make Sense for the Big Semis?

About half the cost of a solar system is other than the module price, like framing, electrical wiring, converters, installation, etc. There is much more to being a profitable solar company than making cheap modules. Sunpower, and others, know this so they are vertically integrated to bring down the whole system cost. These giant chip manufacturers have no experience in these areas and thus have limited competitive advantage when bringing down the total system cost.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Sunpower eventually form a partnership with a chip company that has developed a good, cheap, thin-film solar module. The chip company gets the system construction, installation, and distribution channels of Sunpower. Sunpower gets additional income, more efficient use of its distribution channels, and an additional, complementary product line (cheaper thin-film product vs. Sunpower’s compact, high-efficiency product) that increases Sunpower’s “push marketing”.

Solar Generation Costs on Track to Achieve Grid Parity

Correction. bismuth antimony telluride is used for the thermoelectric effect and not CdTe. Still my point remains that the extremely rare earth metal Te (tellurium) is used.

Solar Generation Costs on Track to Achieve Grid Parity

nakedjaybird, I believe the technology you are talking about to recover waste heat is the "thermo-electric" effect. This is a very promising energy advancement. Researchers have made great strides lately. It means turning any heat source into electricity, including body heat. However, this technology is mostly still in the lab, and one of the leading technologies uses CdTe which is the same rare element Te that is used by First Solar. Seems to me that this technology has a lot of maturing to do.

Also, you make the assumption that energy use in the US will be stagnant. It won't be. It is expected to grow by a staggering 50% by 2030. There will be plenty of room for all new energy technologies and for continued use of fossil fuel.

Solar Generation Costs on Track to Achieve Grid Parity

Good article. I think you are on target with your estimates. You picked some key data points from the massive amount of data out there on the solar market. Go Ausra and Sunpower.

One thing to add. Solar will reach grid parity at much different times for different places. Southern California will reach it much sooner than most other places. Electricity is high there compared to the rest of the country, the sunlight profile is much brighter there, and its 15 million residences is a large market which will help price reductions through economies of scale.

For solar concentrating technology (and even solar PV farms), the Mojave desert has one of the best solar profiles in the world because it is a high desert (over 2000 feet in elevation). It is also very close to those 15 million people. Money has already been approved for greatly improving the power transmission lines into the desert for both solar and wind power.

One more thing about California. It is very liberal when it comes to the environment. Coal fired power plants are looked down on. Alternate energy is loved.

So when it comes to watching the grid parity game, keep your eyes focused on southern California. It will be one of the first places in the world crossing the grid-parity finish line. When it crosses, and volume of solar installations there starts taking off, it will speed cost reductions and promote installations elsewhere. This is the "critical mass" effect that us investors in solar power are waiting for.