Road Runner

A123 Systems Looks Headed Back to IPO Price

My post above was meant to be addressed to sunstar.

A123 Systems Looks Headed Back to IPO Price

When I read posts like yours, my knee-jerk opinion is that you are a prankster trying to suck someone into a goofy conversation to embarrass them. What you are saying you did is just too ignorant to believe. I’m shocked by people who know so little about the stock market that they have no business buying stocks, but here they are buying stocks.

Well, here goes my advice anyway.

If you actually put your whole 401k into 1 highly speculative stock, then you know nothing about the stock market and should not be in the stock market. There is no such thing as a "sure thing" stock. Us experienced investors know that no one can predict for certain the direction of a stock, especially in any period less than one year. We experienced investors basically play the odds trying to be right more than 60% of the time. Everyone, makes a bad stock pick on occasion. Anyone who says they haven't is lying.

The main reason I take the risks of investing in individual stocks is the sport of it, not because I’m anxious to get rich quick so I can spend the rest of my life doing nothing which seems to be your goal. I enjoy riding this wild horse of the stock market seeing if I have what it takes to out-smart other people. If you are “not into” stock picking like me, you do not belong in individual stocks. Buy a market index fund or something else boring.

Rapid Transition to Grid Enabled Vehicles Not Possible or Desirable

John Peterson, I'm sure glad the rest of the world is ignoring you, especially the Chinese who know that electric vehicles are the future and are hard driving in that direction. The only people giving your ideas respect are your groupies on your posts, and maybe the conservative cult zombies that think there is no such thing as global warming because that would be giving into people, thus showing weakness (my bother-in-law is a arrogant conservative cult zombie).

I totally agree with GhostOfSpec, and I mostly agree with jerrydd.

I don't have time this time to pick apart your argument like I did when you misused the Gartner chart. But, that's what you depend on to make your points - slinging so much mud that you run your opponents off their feet. It's a huge job to pick through all the rubbish you post and show the flaws. When I did that you when you misinterpreted the Gartner chart, you just kept countering my arguments with indirect comments that I had to then counter. Ultimately, you never did directly address my argument though I badgered you to do so. You just accused me of technical nitpicking.

You are a master lawyer, John. You are a master cherry-picker and debater. You can argue any side of an argument. Right now, slamming electric vehicles is economically beneficial to you, so that's what you argue.

Rapid Transition to Grid Enabled Vehicles Not Possible or Desirable

Mayascribe, You are reading way too much into the run-up and subsequent pull-back of A123 stock after the IPO. This has more to do with the dynamics of how stocks normally react after IPOs than it is a verdict on the future of A123 as a company. You obviously know very little about stock investing. Often, in the short term stocks move to forces that are totally unrelated to the performance and future of a company.

Are you one of those guys that stare at stock prices all day trying to divine the meaning out of every move? I believe that Warren Buffet is right in ignoring short term moments in stock, and especially now where it seems that very few people care about where a stock is going more than 12 months out. Everybody is under huge pressure to perform in the next couple of quarters or get axed. IPOs are a good way for insider, big-boys to make a quick profit.


On Nov 20 03:29 PM Mayascribe wrote:
> John: Another gem of an article!
>
> Remember right after A123's IPO, the stock zooming up to $28/share,
> when I wanted to make a bet that the stock would be under $17.00/
> share by the end of the year?
>
> Right now -----> $14.94
>
> Incredible oxymoron that Uncle Sammy threw billions at the battery
> industry, which dollars are now in part being used to lobby for a
> flawed, irrational, and very expensive and outrageously moronic idea.
>
>
> GEV should stand for "Government Errors Violently"
>
> I truly appreciate your vigilance.

Readers Pick the Top 20 5-Year Horizon Stocks

TheHague, Don't lose faith in Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart hasn't performed this year simply because it is considered a "defensive stock”, a safe place to put money during tough economic times. Well, during 2009, money shifted out of defensive stocks into potential high growth stocks as the threat of economic catastrophe abated. It has little to do with how Wal-Mart, as a company, is performing. It’s just natural stock rotation.


On Oct 18 09:18 PM TheHague wrote:
> WMT? Nice try! I just sold my shares that I bought in March! I can
> now buy into them cheaper than they were when I bought them! I gave
> up! Their last Div. was not that great! I tried to believe, but some
> thing is not right there! I don't know what it is but it ain't cool!

Readers Pick the Top 20 5-Year Horizon Stocks

I'm impressed by the quality of this list, and how it reached down into some stocks that I didn't think were in the minds of the general investor community, like AONE and BYDDY.PK. Plus, it listed stocks that are truly (not stuck-in-the-mud like Microsoft and Yahoo) innovative companies that are “pushing the envelope” on the technology front like GE with green technology, like Google with search, operating system, and “cloud computing” technology, and like Apple with mobile Internet technology.

A123 Systems (AONE) and BYD of China (BYDDY.PK) are head-to-head competitors in the plug-in vehicle battery market. They both make the Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP or LiFePO4) battery which, when the manufacturing is perfected, will be the ideal battery for vehicles, in my opinion. These are the clearly, in my opinion, the leaders in the quickly emerging LFP battery market. A123 seems to be the high quality player, and BYD seems to be the high quantity player. BYD is an established player with non-LFP batteries so it is well established and profitable. A123 is a startup with only one product – its LFP battery. I see investing in A123 as very speculative but potentially very profitable.

As a side note, if Japan wants to pull itself out of its 2 decade economic stagnation, one of the best things it could do is let Wal-Mart “run wild” in its country. Japan’s retail system is very inefficient. There is a lot of job protection going on. Wal-Mart would cause many jobs to be lost, but it would spur economic growth via a much more efficient retail system that would deliver goods to its citizens at a much lower price. This would leave money left over in people’s pockets that would lead to a higher consumption of other products increasing the economy.

A123: Investors Are Forgetting the Fundamentals

TinyTim, Sorry. It's like any chain - there's always those badly managed stores no matter how well the chain is run. I'm in Dallas. The 5 or more BB stores I've visited here are well run. Though I've meet a few grumpy workers.

On Oct 06 04:58 PM TinyTim wrote:

> RR
> " The Best Buy stores are alive with activity and light, and their
> sales force, with the Geek Squad, were very helpful and professional.
> "
>
> Not mine. The sales people are surely and lazy.

A123: Investors Are Forgetting the Fundamentals

I meant to say "burned up his motor controller" above.

A123: Investors Are Forgetting the Fundamentals

A123 is a speculative play based on the idea that Li-ion battery sales are going to skyrocket over the next 5 years. Sales are supposed to go from 10s of millions to 10s of billion of dollars. That's like a 1000 fold increase in sales.

Currently, the battery market is relatively small which includes vehicles starting, portable electronics devices, flashlights, remote controls, etc. These are "sideshow" applications. But, in the future, batteries are going "mainstream" in all-electric and hybrid-electric vehicles, and power grid smoothing. Both of these applications are giant on their own, but together, “oh wow”.

I believe that A123 has one of the premier batteries for this coming energy revolution. It's battery is ultra-safe Lithium Iron Phosphate using a "bleeding edge" "nano" manufacturing process. I believe it will be one of the "gold standard" batteries.

Why do I think this? My investment approach is to do the standard research like in this article, and market analysis, and competitive analysis, etc. But, I also like to “try out the product” (see Circuit City comments below). Since I found it very difficult to try out A123 batteries, I did the next best thing. I looked for user stories on the web. I came across radio controlled (RC) user blogs. These guys were getting A123 batteries from Dewalt power tools and putting them in their RC planes. And, this is the big part, they were testing the limits, bordering on torturing of the A123 batteries. They were tracking the number of cycles, how much capacity was lost after hundreds of cycles, how reckless they could be in charging the batteries, how fast they could charge the batteries, how long they could fly at full power, etc. There was nothing but bragging on these blogs.

One interesting story was an RC flyer who had just put an A123 battery in his plane. He was so impressed by the results that he flew the whole session at full power which I understand is not advisable. After a while he saw blue smoke coming out of the plane. When he landed the plane, he realized that he burned up his motor. But, when he touched the battery, it was cool to the touch.

Extra. I believe that investors in Circuit City would have known their stock was in trouble if they visited both Circuit City and Best Buy stores. The Best Buy stores are alive with activity and light, and their sales force, with the Geek Squad, were very helpful and professional. I found the opposite with Circuit City stores, especially how dark and dreary the stores were.

Better Lithium-Ion Battery Plays than A123 Systems

Thanks for the good info on other battery companies in China.

Cleantech Industry Nervously Awaits A123 Systems' IPO

Douglas, you need to differentiate, just like most people, the difference between A123's Li-ion battery and all the other Li-ion batteries. A123 is Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO4) which is far superior to all the other Li-ion batteries when it comes to vehicles. These batteries are extremely safe, have long life, can be charged very quickly, etc.

Also, vehicles need Li-ion batteries. I just test drove a 2010 Toyota Camry hybrid. It had the third generation Synergy drive, like the Prius, that uses the Nickel Metal Hydride battery. The car was great. It drove just like a standard Camry – very well. There was only one problem with the car that would prevent me from buying it or a similar Lexus model - the battery took up too much trunk space. I never want to apologize for driving mid-sized sedans instead of SUVs. I never want to turn down picking up friends or family at the airport because I don’t have enough trunk space in my car.

Li-ion, notably LiFePO4 li-ion, batteries are essential for the future of hybrids. Just give it time and volume to improve their characteristics and lower their costs.


On Sep 22 10:09 AM Douglas Korthof wrote:

> You'll notice that according to this article, the cost of manufacture
> alone is higher than the revenue stream coming in...meaning that
> they are losing about $1 for each $1 in sales, if SG&A is in
> proportion.
>
> This is not sustainable; but it's in accordance with other Lithium
> battery companies, which (so far) have not made much money on their
> product. So it's all smoke and mirrors, so far; the only proven technology
> for all-electric EVs is Nickel Metal Hydride, not Lithium; and lead-acid
> also works, but is higher in cost. The highest cost of all is Lithium,
> that's why the Tesla costs so much.
>
> There are about 100 converted Plug-i-Prii using A123 batteries, it
> seems; but none has more than a few months of operation. The big
> problem with Li is lifespan; Li is yet to be proven. We hope it works,
> and will last 100K or 200K, like NiMH; but so far, no reason to move
> to Lithium from NiMH, which makes it mystifying why car companies
> refuse to use NiMH for upcoming proposed EVs. Perhaps, they really
> don't want them to succeed.
>
> So far, experience shows that NiMH costs about a third of Lithium,
> and lasts 4 times as long.