Road Runner

Ascent Solar Makes CIGS on Plastic

Looks like a good take-over target in this market. It's shakeout time in solar.

The Solar Shuffle: Only the Best Will Do - JPM

bosun.j, How is this a "pump and dump" article?! I see low price targets and a gloomy 25% solar system price drop.

The Solar Shuffle: Only the Best Will Do - JPM

I wish analysts would give a target price based on what they think the price should be in an average market, and not adjust it for the prevailing sentiment, bearish or bullish. That way I could get a better fundamental picture of the value of the stock instead of their "guess" as to where the economy and investor sentiment is going. But, if they did that, they would appear dumb sometimes, like now, for giving a target that is far from the actual price. Oversold and undersold conditions can last for years, which may be longer than an analyst’s career if he/she gives a price target based on average market conditions.

The Sun Is Not Also Rising Over Solar Stocks

Let’s not lose perspective on oil prices. It "feels" like we are back to cheap oil with the current price around $60/barrel, from $147/barrel. This may lead us to "feel" like there will be a less interest in alternate energy, especially currently expensive solar. However, oil is still historically expensive. Oil has been above $50/barrel for only the last 4 years. Just 5 years ago, oil was $27/barrel (singing in the streets).

We are not going back to sub $50/barrel oil because of increasing demand in emerging markets, limited supply (peak oil), and higher cost to produce the “last barrel”. Thus, in-my-opinion, there will continue to be plenty of interest in alternate energy including solar.

Note about the “last barrel”. It doesn’t matter that Saudi Arabia can produce oil at $7/barrel. What matters is the highest cost for producing a barrel. That is where the supply and demand curves cross. If the price of oil drops below the cost of the “last barrel”, that barrel will not be produced which will limit supply and push prices back up.

www.gasbuddy.com/gb_re... Check “Show Crude Oil Price”.

Ascent Solar, Medis Technologies Both See CEO Step Down

Just another reminder of how important good management is. Something often overlooked by average investors.

Look at ENER before and after the new CEO took over about a year ago. Before - promising but always disappointing. After - streamlined and on its way to be a serious solar company.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

Even if the oil bubble (assuming there is one) bursts and the price goes back down to around $100, that's still plenty of incentive to develop alternate energy, especially wind and solar. In fact, this may be a better scenario than $145 oil for alt energy because it gives the economy and politicians financial and political "breathing room" to enact pro alternate energy policies. Politicians’ would no longer be in a "must take action now" crisis mode trying to make their electorate feel good about him/her. They can settle down and talk longer term. I mean “longer term” in public perception.

I don't buy the idea that new oil reserves will come on line faster that alternate energy like wind and solar. It takes years to go from approval to active oil production. Wind is as cheap as natural gas and coal fired electric plants today (with current incentives), though electric power lines will take years and big dollars to build. Solar will be in the same position as wind 5 years from now. It seems to me that the public has a misconception about how fast different sources of energy can come on-line. I guess that new oil drilling seems to the average person to be like “get permission today, drill next month, and pump oil the next month”, where alternate energy is like a science fiction movie of the distant future.

Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises

It seems to me that the whole story on solar right now is the extension of the US tax credits that are due to expire at the end of 2008. If they get extended, the solar industry is off and running, and the shorts will feel the heat. If not, the solar industry will suffer near term, and the shorts will feel good. Even now, it is starting to hurting the solar companies because utilities, etc. are hesitant to expand solar because of the unknown future of tax credits.

Most opinions I've read say that the tax credits will get extended before the end of the year, but every time the Democrats try to get them extended, they get shot down. My gut feeling (what method is better when it comes to predicting political behavior?) is that the extension has a 50/50 chance of being renewed before the end of the year.