Road Runner

Oversupply Issues Plague Solar Manufacturers

MichaelAK, There is something else inaccurate about your statement. This article only points out how some of the weaker solar companies are closing US solar plants. But, the big, strong solar companies are planning on opening US manufacturing plants because the increase in US manufacturing cost is more than offset by lower shipping costs to their US customers. SunPower is one of these companies.

On Nov 06 05:20 PM MichaelAK wrote:

> So much for Green Tech Jobs even those are going overseas as a fast
> rate. We need corporate tax, regulator and labor laws reforms if
> we are ever going to rebuild our manufacturing base. Heck when the
> promise of the new Green Manufacturing Revolution goes overseas you
> have a domestic problem that needs fixing at the Macro Level to correct
> the inablances in cost.

Oversupply Issues Plague Solar Manufacturers

SunPower (SPWRA and SPWRB) does not have an oversupply problem. They will be capacity constrained for the first half of 2010 until new production comes online mid year.

Oversupply Issues Plague Solar Manufacturers

MichaelAK, You are missing a huge part of the labor in solar - the installation labor which is 35% plus of the price of an installed solar system. This work can not be outsourced.

Also, the US is still the number 1 manufacture in the world. The loss of US manufacturing has been far overstated. The news media loves to talk about job losses because it gets people to tune in.


On Nov 06 05:20 PM MichaelAK wrote:

> So much for Green Tech Jobs even those are going overseas as a fast
> rate. We need corporate tax, regulator and labor laws reforms if
> we are ever going to rebuild our manufacturing base. Heck when the
> promise of the new Green Manufacturing Revolution goes overseas you
> have a domestic problem that needs fixing at the Macro Level to correct
> the inablances in cost.

The End of the Oil Age? Not Quite

longoil, You just showed the problem of cherry picking statistics (lies, damn lies, and statistics). You should have used more general statistics like in this report. www.environmentalleade.../ The average mileage increase was 9.1 mpg.

On Oct 13 02:49 PM longoil wrote:
> I recently read some interesting data on the "Cash for Clunkers"
> program. Over 16,000 people that bought new Ford F150 trucks qualified
> for the CARS program. Similarly another 16000 people bought Chevy
> Silverados and also got the CARS rebates. What did these people trade
> in ? Hummers, Sherman tanks ???
>
> The most interesting fact was that more people bought new Ford F150
> trucks than new Toyota Prius Hybrids with the CARS program. So much
> for encouraging fuel efficent vehicles.

The End of the Oil Age? Not Quite

HerrHansa, 40% you mention below is not accurate. 45% of oil goes to gasoline in the US. Then add in diesel, and you get to about 70%.

On Oct 13 12:21 PM HerrHansa wrote:
> I have seen reports indicating closer to 40% of oil going towards
> transportation usage in the US.

The End of the Oil Age? Not Quite

Michael, There is a serious flaw in your thinking. You are looking at too short a time frame. I get the impression that you are looking out over 5 years.

Yes, in the next 5 years, battery prices will still be too high to make plug-in vehicles economical. You must look to 10 years and beyond. Battery prices are going to drop significantly.

You are wrong in saying that there are not enough natural resources in the world to build a world-wide fleet of plug-in vehicles. The Lithium shortage has been debated many times on Seeking Alpha. What I conclude from these debates is that no one knows for sure how much extractable Lithium there is in the world, but there are many places that have good potential. I believe that Lithium is like many other mined resources in that as the demand and price increase, the known resources will increase dramatically with new discoveries and improved technology. Natural gas has done this big time in the last 5 years.

There are some Li-ion batteries, like Lithium Iron Phosphate, that don’t use expensive metals like Cobalt.

Also, the solar world is making huge advances. But, again, in 5 years the impact to oil is not going to be large. But, starting in 10 years, solar is going to be very reasonably priced. Put reasonably priced solar together with affordable plug-in vehicles and you get a strong combination for reducing the use of oil in the world. Throw in much increased use of natural gas for vehicles and for home power generation for charging plug-in vehicles, and you get another hit for oil use.

Michael, I think you need to do some more research to round out your knowledge of the energy world. You don’t seem to understand all the pieces.

How Low Can Natural Gas Prices Go?

dieuwer, How long do these $7 contracts last? In other words, when will they have to be renegotiated at a lower rate, if the spot rate is lower then? If the rate is lower when it comes time to renegotiate and the spot price is below $5, do the producers just walk away and stop producing new wells?

How Low Can Natural Gas Prices Go?

Yes ACEMAN. Teach us something instead of just snearing down your nose at us.

Studying the Performance of Solar PV Systems

The graph shows that Suntechnics (Uses Sunpower cells, SPWRA) has a module yield of only 16.1%. I'm baffled by why this is so low since Sunpower cells are now at 22.5% efficient and have been above 20% for years. Maybe they bought these cells years before the study was concluded.

Get Ready for Affordable Thin-Film Solar Technology

Notice how this article goes on and on about high-efficiency, but never gives a percentage number. That set alarms off in my head right away. This article is a good lesson to newbie investors - when an article is full a bragging without giving hard specifications and timelines, don't walk away, run away. This is a classic example of pumping.

BP: Beyond Petroleum and Back

long_on_oil said, “The lowest cost producers of oil (Saudis) have big smiles on their faces because they are forcing their competitors (oil sands and deepwater) out of the business. Plus the Saudis ability to produce oil for $3 or less a barrel, will kill alternate sources of energy.”

But, the Saudis can not pump enough cheap oil to meet all the world’s oil needs. This is where an understanding of economics comes in. (Since we’re bragging about our degrees on this post, I’ll join in. I have an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin so I understand economics). The price of oil in the market is the cost of the most expensive barrel produced to match demand at that price. In other words, it may take $100 a barrel to give enough incentive to produce enough oil to match demand at $100 a barrel. This most expensive barrel of oil may come from the deep ocean, from Canadian oil sands, or from Western US oil shale. And, it may take expensive oil, $100 or above, to curb the appetite for oil enough to let these other sources of oil ramp up production to match the constantly rising (except for the 1 to 2 years during this financial crisis) world demand for oil.

Thus, we are far from running out of oil in this world, but we have definitely run out of enough cheap oil to keep the price of oil cheap.

BP Solar Nixes Factory Expansion: Proof of Industry Oversupply?

Amazing how the number of comments people are adding to these blogs has dropped off a cliff. Suddenly, it seems that solar investors want to forget they own stocks. I guess they have turned off their computers and are lying on the floor in the fetal position.

Be hopeful people. This will be over in the next 2 years because world govenments are pouring massive amounts of money into the world banking system. And when this is over, solar is going to take off big. It has to.