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RHD

RHD
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  • Bitcoin: Buyer Beware, This Is A Classic Bubble And Possible Fraud [View article]
    LJK...great comment; please expand on two clauses in your conclusory 'graph: (1) "..."it leaves too much plus-sum money on the table" and (2) "... that will arise as the reward for defection grows with the system." Thank you.
    Apr 8 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ding Dong, The Yellow Metal Is Dead! [View article]
    Perhaps we should...I refer you to the work of Kurt Godel ("the greatest logician since Aristotle"), specifically the 1932 and 1938 papers. I believe you will find them interesting and relevant.
    Apr 8 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Silver: Endeavour Silver Edition [View article]
    Heb...$200MM for EXK to acquire GPL in a stock-and-cash merger deal looks, prior to proper DD, not unreasonable to me, although 3X TTM rev may be pricey.
    I have financed a deal or two (dozen), albeit none in the PM mining space, so: $75MM senior, $125 in a well-structured mezz/equity/PP formulation with $20-30MM PP to be underwritten by a competent BD; $50MM B/S cash in merged entity, substantial as yet unquantified OpEx benefits, IMO certainly strategic benefits and scale economics. I would be interested in your thoughts, should you care to respond. Thx.
    Apr 8 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo May Be Vetting A Buyer [View article]
    wel...I think you just defined that crime does pay ;)
    Apr 8 07:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dismal Labor Report Gives Precious Metals Markets New Life [View article]
    Apologies..."...the much bigger futures market is clearly in control of metal prices as traders jump from "paper gold and silver" to other asset classes." Presumptively:
    1. The US futures market (i.e. COMEX ?)
    2. "Clearly in control" defined as trading volumes(?) and de facto driver of price discovery (?)
    3. "traders jump from "paper gold and silver"" defined as increasing backwardation of the pricing of futures contracts (?)
    4. "coins" is used a generic term for phys (?)
    Thank you for your help, Tim.
    Apr 8 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin: Buyer Beware, This Is A Classic Bubble And Possible Fraud [View article]
    Well said, sir. I have some slightly used CDOs for sale; would you be interested?
    Apr 7 04:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin: Buyer Beware, This Is A Classic Bubble And Possible Fraud [View article]
    Robert...obvious question: given your premise above, would the events precipitating such collapse have arisen over the previous two decades?
    Apr 7 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dismal Labor Report Gives Precious Metals Markets New Life [View article]
    SocGen is a very large, very insolvent French bank. Of course, like GS (but for slightly different reasons) they want to talk down the POG.
    However, I am probably the dumb guy in the room; I need to understand the precise short- and longer-term implications of:
    "While demand from both the public and private sector in emerging market nations remains strong and U.S. coins sales are on track to shatter previous record sales, the much bigger futures market is clearly in control of metal prices as traders jump from "paper gold and silver" to other asset classes."
    The meaning, and significance, of the clause highlighted in the article are not fully known to me. I would appreciate comments or citations as to resources. Thank you for a very good article.
    Apr 7 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo's Billion-Dollar Win At Hand [View article]
    PP...very good piece summarizing concisely and briefly the issues at hand. Thank you. There are obviously many other alternative transaction-types re GOOG and MSFT, including limited non-transferable non-exclusive licensing inclusive of other terms and conditions acceptable to the parties, among several others, thus I cannot agree with your conclusion GOOG will acquire VRNG. As an industrial/strategic matter, I do not think GOOG wants to own VRNG. There are just too many other structures to accomplish the strategic and industrial objectives for GOOG and MSFT.
    Finally, I find your last 'graph interesting: do you not think that "...and surely generate more talk of patent reform to the FTC and Congress" would inevitably lead to the incendiary and ongoing debate concerning tort reform generally? As you well know, this has been a hard-fought ideological/political struggle for years, with significant implications for certain very muscular lobbying interests on the Hill. I would be interested in your views. Thx.
    Apr 7 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin: Buyer Beware, This Is A Classic Bubble And Possible Fraud [View article]
    Robert....thank you for the well-written article, which unfortunately suffers from a paucity of facts. I am no Bitcoin nut, but I am a tech guy. I am aware of the "secrecy", or in any event the lack of comprehensive descriptive materials, re Bitcoin. The code is open-source: download it and read the code yourself. You are correct: Bitcoin remains an experiment,subject to curable transient weaknesses. I await more dispositive technological and macroeconomic analyses of Bitcoin.

    NB: Thank you for the article; I am aware of the difficulty of determining more facts concerning real weaknesses re "this Ponzi scheme". I would make precisely the same comment re the USD.
    Apr 7 10:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ding Dong, The Yellow Metal Is Dead! [View article]
    Another very good article in a very good series Avi. I have been studying your work a bit in the last few weeks; I am unable to conclude as dispositively as you the price pivots, and am still mulling the analysis of the time domain within your analytical context, but I have become convinced of the validity of the EWT/"sentiment" analytical techniques. Thank you.
    Apr 7 09:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trifecta Of Events All Break In Favor Of Gold [View article]
    Tom...I too would be interested in your customarily thoughtful reply to Silver B comment. I have studied Avi's methodology and believe its basis to be market psychology- or "sentiment"-driven re Fibs and EWT. I appreciate differing analytical methods to "triangulate" on probabilities of future value.Thank you.
    Apr 7 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Gold And Russian Dolls [View article]
    Clever metaphor and very good piece. Thank you. I especially liked the characterization: non-trivial, troublesome, accurate and probably unpopular among certain readers:

    "Here is what we have come to believe:
    --Only a very finite number of influences really drive the price of gold at any given time. The art of making a successful investment in gold is picking those influences correctly.
    --Drivers change over time.
    --Drivers for the short-term differ from the long-term drivers."

    A difficult prescription, perhaps, and certainly not a "recipe"; nonetheless, perceptive and meaningful.
    Apr 7 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Gold Bears Have The Upper Hand? [View article]
    In response to your headline:short-term (3-6 months) perhaps; after that, no.
    Apr 7 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Rebound In Undervalued Gold/Silver Bullion And Miners [View article]
    cap...perhaps no panic, as you say, but phys on the SGE is $20+/troy oz over NYMEX spot; I conclude a (relatively soon) meaningful bifurcation in paper and phys pricing. Miners are a significant source of phys and will be revalued accordingly. High-quality miners will obviously lead the move; thus I prefer DD and specific names to GDX and GDXJ.
    Apr 6 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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