blanco-dee

Bill Gross Thinks All Assets Appear to Be Overvalued Long-Term

Don

Shale Gas: Promises, Promises, Promises

Great article! I reviewed the Berman article, it really gave a realistic perspective on the reserve life of tese assets, and a fair comparison of costs vs. potential.

I hope I can find more info on some of the other shale plays currenty being hyped, though I expect them to be similar. I am a big proponent of horizontal driling not only due to the advantages of higer production, but also the smaller footprint on the landscape - I sure wish these technologies were used more extensively for the CBM development in the San Juan Basin, which from a satellite view has looked like swiss cheese for decades, and worse for the last 20.

And thanks, of course, for shedding some light on the typical hype E&P companies - more articles like this appreciated,

BDO

The Definitive Guide to Natural Gas ETFs: Natural Gas ETF Investing 101

I see that the fundamentals of supply and demand don't work in today's futures market, and when an ETF for a commodity (which is supposed to be a "simple" way for investors to get a piece of the action) gets this complex it is probably best to avoid it.

Thanks for explaining how this ETF works, even though I can understand it I just can't handle the current situation - when October 9 US nat gas storage is at 3,716 bcf, and total storage is something like 3,899 bcf, (from the eia.doe.gov site), and NOAA just came out with its weather models showing a "less than freezin' our tails off" prediction for most of the US this winter, well, I'll sit on the sidelines until the futures market comes to its senses. Nat gas following overpriced and abundant oil, its all just a bit much.

Fortunately for the oil futures market the Nigerian rebels (MEND) say the truce is over at midnight, and they're going to start attacking oil facilities again. And what happens??? Whatyya bet refineries go up! Makes no sense at all, regardless of the crack spread.

I see dangerous trading waters in the near term, fine for traders with fast reflexes I suppose,

BDO

China Signs $5.5 Billion Russian Trade Deals Including Energy and Mineral Plans

Heck, communism was the best thing the good ole' US ever had goin for it! Now that our comrades in Russia and China have discovered the benefits of capitalism they can take us down without a shot fired,

Was it Trotsky or Marx who said we'd sell them the rope to hang us? Or was it Lenin?

How Much Natural Gas Remains in the USA?

looks like my links were truncated by seeking alpha,

so nevermind,

anyone know why this happens, or how to beat this system?


On Oct 04 10:29 PM blanco-dee wrote:

> User 283977 - you should look over Onshore Oil & Gas Order #1
> for US gas from federal leases,
>
> www.blm.gov/wo/st/en/p...
>
>
> Also consider its not very likely states will encourage onerous requirements
> for hydraulic fracturing anytime soon - they don't want to lose any
> revenue from state leases considering the financial hardship most
> states are going through these days - they nee every dime they can
> get.
>
> Plenty of volatile hydrocarbone being released every day from many
> industries in the US - coal, oil, nat gas, refining and industrial
> chemical production - not to mention the typical automobile - the
> EPA will not be allowed to regulate everything, andthe thresholds
> right now are pretty incredible, especially for benzene;
>
> www.earthjustice.org/n...
>
>
> Natural gas will still be the better choice for transportation in
> the short run, especially for fleet vehicles;
>
> www.cngvp.org/News/new...
>
> we'll drill for more, and LNG will be a largr play during cycles
> of lower domestic production and higher usage, even if it gets expensive.
>
>
> I agree with all the posters about the boom & bust cycles - we'll
> see lots more.
>
> BDO

How Much Natural Gas Remains in the USA?

User 283977 - you should look over Onshore Oil & Gas Order #1 for US gas from federal leases,

www.blm.gov/wo/st/en/p...

Also consider its not very likely states will encourage onerous requirements for hydraulic fracturing anytime soon - they don't want to lose any revenue from state leases considering the financial hardship most states are going through these days - they nee every dime they can get.

Plenty of volatile hydrocarbone being released every day from many industries in the US - coal, oil, nat gas, refining and industrial chemical production - not to mention the typical automobile - the EPA will not be allowed to regulate everything, andthe thresholds right now are pretty incredible, especially for benzene;

www.earthjustice.org/n...

Natural gas will still be the better choice for transportation in the short run, especially for fleet vehicles;

www.cngvp.org/News/new...

we'll drill for more, and LNG will be a largr play during cycles of lower domestic production and higher usage, even if it gets expensive.

I agree with all the posters about the boom & bust cycles - we'll see lots more.

BDO

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust: Time to Jump the Gun

Asked one of my buddies in Farmington - the shale play is in the Mancos shale,

more shut-ins on the way,

only 6 rigs operating

Considering the overages to come as storage maxes out in the US and Canada, I'm waiting for the carnage unfold before i touch any nat gas trusts,

keep yer' powder dry,

BDO

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust: Time to Jump the Gun

I'm not clear on which formation you are talking about for a shale play - I would be interested in hearing which, and if horizontal drilling will be used in development, is it the Lewis shale?

My experience with the San Juan Basin comes from too many years in Charmington NM,

my understanding is that following the Fruitland CBM development it has been changes in well spacing in 2002 which led to the more recent upswing in production, where spacing in the fruitland doubled (4 wells per section=160 acre spacing) and 80 acre spacing in the conventional formations from 160 acre spacing. We were told that it was all about "Maximum Recoverable Reserve".

my general impression has been that the San Juan Basin has been in decline, and these efforts are directed to getting the last gasps of gas out of the ground. Right now, every driller I know is looking for work,

I'd love to hear they've figured out how to boost production from any formation up there, and I still can't believe the US DOE gave Conoco-Phillips millions of dollars for a demonstration "CO2 sequestration" project, (I think it was in the 30-8 unit) when they would have done it anyway to boost their existing production, with an existing CO2 line already in place at their doorstep, acquired from the Burlington acquisition.

love to hear about the shale play, the I can call my old driller buddy and see what he's heard,

BDO

Natural Gas Production Declines Are Becoming More Evident

Excellent article, just the kind of information small investors like myself need,

somehow, I don't quite see how the futures markets get soooo speculative - with such high storage figures it looks like speculation alone is holding nat gas prices up,

and probably the same for oil too,

It is articles like this that keep me coming back to seeking alpha every day - keep 'em comin!

If the Swiss Can Do It, Why Can't We?

I don't see any truth in the statement;

""It is unlikely that the US government would step in to weaken the dollar. Moreover, the global political backlash would be too great.""

that's exactly what is going on.

Why can't we be like the Swiss? The answer i we're just too large. Any comparison between the two is flawed by virtue of the scale of the USA.

I don't really see a point to this article.

BDO

Markets Are at a Crossroads

Once again an analysis based on technical performance and lip service to the fundamentals,

I like SKF because I hate the banks, I've lost some mony but when the financials feel pain I feel so much better...

market psychology is important too - look at the reality of the 10 year bond at 3.93% and 30 year mortages at 5.5+% and it doesen't seem unreasonable to expect investors to come to their senses and start taking massive profits on XLF components.

don't mind me, I don't know squat,

I just have a bad feeling about this bear market rally,

BDO

Hate for Leveraged ETFs is Unwarranted

I hate banks,

and I hope Cramer's right that investment in SKF hurts

Penn West Energy: Too Good to Be True?

One thing to remember about this company is their interests in coal sands, which last year seemed great, now there are "environmental" concerns involving water use, footprint, CO2 release, and now this position of future development is in question.

I have been a long time investor in this trust, back from the days of NCE Petrofund, and Jim Flaherty should go down in history as the worst financial officer in the Canadian government in history, dealing a serious blow to teachers pension funds (and many other retirement and investment funds) in a single day, the Halloween surprise that saw Canadian Royalty Trusts lose over 30 billion in market capitalization in a single day.

They have enough tax credits which will aid in their transition from a trust to lord-knows-what, maybe a master limited partnership which will still benefit shareholders - though the development of oil sands may fall into question in the coming months,

good luck with your investing

BDO

Cramer Is Right about Ultrashort ETFs

User 142738 - I agree with your analysis, FXP also trades in a non-standard fashion, it should be rocketing up and it just doesen't,

I doubt there's much more we can get out of Trader Mark's blog other than he's a mark like ihnvestors in FXP,

he's "an experienced trader", which I judge from his profile means that he's just getting a clue too,

and to hell with the Chinese too, true capitalist liars in the business of over-leveraging everything, and lying about their own interests. If I make a single buck out of a short fund that benefits from their market rolling over, I'll have a great Christmas. Even if it takes until next year's,

BDO

Cramer Is Right about Ultrashort ETFs

These funds are performing in a non-standard fashion - but everytime I make a single buck I feel its the right thing to do. No one else will punish the banks, and they won't even say what they've done with the massive amounts of money they've gotten out of our tax base, due to their irresponsible leveraging.

I say if you can't beat 'em, join em - irresponsible investing for the price of their heads is what I want, if you ever thought they'd treat you like a human being then you're the fool. Derive that.

Blanco-dee