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Michael428

Michael428
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  • Amazon: The Financial Picture Worsens [View article]
    Bill

    What I find interesting about Amazon earning estimates is the estimate for a 73 cent loss this quarter and a 66 cent gain in Q4.

    I understand Q4 is the holiday quarter, but this huge estimated change between quarters 3 and 4 would not follow any historical trend (without some one time item) I can see for Amazon or any or large retailer for that matter.

    Any thoughts on the above?
    Sep 8 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Financial Picture Worsens [View article]
    Bill Maurer

    Very cool that you either have access to or have saved the 2014 earnings estimates going back from March, 2013.

    I started to save screen prints of your Yahoo estimates link in December, 2013. But going back to March, 2013 paints a better picture.

    Nasdaq.com (which I get on MSN financial) goes out farther into the future with estimates but has less total analysts. So you can see 2016 estimates now.
    Sep 8 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is Going After Google's Online Ad Market [View article]
    SM

    Thanks for the reply. We are on the same page. So we just have to wait.

    M
    Aug 27 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is Going After Google's Online Ad Market [View article]
    surplusmarketing

    I have a comment on your Google LONG comment.

    I think the most relevant factor to Amazon's success (and possible survival) is over it the last year or so, Amazon and Google are competing very, very intently in so many spaces that were initially more or less domains of only one company or the other. I could list the spaces, but I have read enough of your comments to realize you know them.

    I also do not know if I have ever seen this "outright public competition" between two large companies, for whatever this is worth.

    So my point is, both companies will take a decent hit to earnings. I think business is pretty simple and everyone's goal is to find some space where they can keep margin's as high as possible, and it does not appear to me that will happen between Amazon and Google based on what is happening.

    And finally, I got to believe before Amazon purchased Twitch, Amazon had to have a feel for the debt market's willingness to help with the purchase. So this Amazon/Google "thing" may take longer to play out than the bears (of which I am one) think may happen.

    Mike
    Aug 27 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: It Gets Weirder And Weirder [View article]
    I agree that write downs are accounting fantasies when a company is running out of cash and paying its suppliers in 70 days.

    And in Amazon's case, a write down may also be a fantasy because no one seems to care about earnings.

    But if earnings did matter, a $480 million write down (one half the Twitch purchase price) would either reduce earnings by $1 a share or (more likely) increase losses by $1 a share, which some day may be relevant.
    Aug 26 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: It Gets Weirder And Weirder [View article]

    The Living Social write-off in 2012 was $169 million.
    Aug 26 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: It Gets Weirder And Weirder [View article]
    Paulo

    Without looking this up, I remember Amazon taking a 37 cent write-off in Q2/2012 on the Living Social purchase. So let us say that write-off was a tad less than $200 million.

    My guess is someone at Amazon's accountants will be worried at some future date that this $970 million investment has a bunch of air in it.

    Do you have any best guess if there will be a future write-off? When it will be? And what will the dollar amount be?
    Aug 26 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: It Gets Weirder And Weirder [View article]

    I wonder how the purchase of Twitch was managed on the Amazon end?

    Was the decision made collaboratively by a group of executives or was the decision made by the single chief executive?

    How much weight was given to the fact the $1 billion might cause a funding (either debt or stock) occurrence?

    Funding the Fire Phone had a cost, though we don't know exactly what that cost was. So in some ways purchasing Twitch was not much different.

    I guess what the company is doing is just, " throwing spaghetti against the wall to see if any of it sticks".

    Time will tell.
    Aug 26 08:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Looking To Grab Larger Piece Of $300 Billion Online Chinese Market [View article]
    <<<I can't help but think that this announcement, which is less than a month before the listing of Alibaba on the New York Stock Exchange, was an attempt by Amazon to steal some of the thunder of its Chinese rival as the day approaches.

    It could also be a strategic move to keep the investing public from embracing its huge rival at the expense of interest in its own stock.>>>

    Interesting!
    Aug 24 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Will Solid Q3 Revenue Growth Be Enough? [View article]
    You did a really good job. Establishing a ratio between Channel Advisors growth and actual Amazon revenue growth was an excellent idea. Paulo has been totally on top of using Channel Advisors to predict revenue, but I am not positive I have ever seen a ratiio (which I could have missed). Plus you factored in the e-book accounting change, which my guess is many of the "revenue watchers" don't know about...but this I know Paulo was on top of.

    At the moment I think the cloud revenue and profitability is the largest factor affecting Amazon. I believe this because those price cuts that Amazon had to match were huge, we know they hit the bottom line and I keep coming back to the balance sheets of the other large cloud players. The word "war" in the phrase price war is very accurate. Like Polish horses were no match for German tanks in September, 1939, Amazon's cash is no match for Google's and Microsoft's. This cloud war could be very costly.

    So Amigibulls, anyway you can predict cloud revenue with a stab at cloud profitability?
    Aug 21 07:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: $389 Or $209? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    And I get to approximately the same valuation, not using the "voodoo logic" of 10 year projections.

    I use the finance I lack, to compare Amazon's balance sheet with the balance sheets of MicroSoft, Google, Oracle and the other well capitalized competitors in the cloud.

    In my opinion, once Google announced those massive price cuts in the cloud...it was a simple declaration by Google that it was "game on".

    Amazon has tons of problems that have been more than well documented, but I think Amazon's biggest problem, (which has been more or less ignored) is their balance sheet. Not even the funding of cash through A/P growth or convincing the employees to spend $1.25 billion a year in stock, that might be worth 20% of that payroll loss, can hide the weakness.

    And there was no accounting in any 10 year model I have seen, in how big a problem, a cloud price war (which anyone following the company knows) will be to a company with a balance sheet so much weaker than their competitors.

    Check!
    Aug 20 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: $389 Or $209? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    <<<I must say this 20 year talk is funny stuff from the whiners here losing the AMZN short bets daily! lol>>>

    I think a better way to look at the shorts would be someone who was down by 5 at the 10th tee.

    There is no question that golfer would be losing. If that golfer defaulted he would have lost. But in no way is the match over.

    I do agree however almost all the longs would be big winners and my analogy above is not relevant.
    Aug 20 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: $389 Or $209? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    Aton Ra Partners

    Not very thick skinned are you?

    How do you know how strong my background in finance is?

    I missed Michael Lewis' book on your genius. Please send me a link so I can purchase.

    And to both you and Paulo, I repeat. A model 10 years out is just the work of someone whose ego has gone a tad too far.
    Aug 20 08:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: $389 Or $209? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    What a silly article!

    The silliest part is predicting what will happen in 2024....but let us go on.

    The "market" which counts says the stock is worth $335.

    The company will most likely have a loss this year, so at 50 times earnings the valuation is zero.

    Tangible book is about $16 a share. But the company is worth much more than that because of all the "buying history of a massive customer base". So would three times tangible book or about $50 a share (between $20 and $25 billion) be correct?

    I think a better article would be:

    What could the company be worth in a distressed sale?
    Aug 20 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Profit Is Not In The Dictionary [View article]
    Michael Dance

    I agree not many investors looking for a safe haven would invest in Amazon.

    But as money moves into dollars, much of that money is invested in equity funds, which hold Amazon.
    Aug 18 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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