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  • Amazon lower after earnings miss, Q4 operating loss guide [View news story]

    The upper end of guidance is a positive $430 m

    You said negative.
    Oct 23 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: How Will Amazon Investors React To Earnings? [View article]
    I think trying to guess Amazon earnings for one quarter is equivalent to throwing two dice and hoping to roll a 7-12. Just luck.

    Amazon's guidance, which is released the previous quarter is in "operating" income or loss. Now here are the problems.

    1). The guidance's range is so huge to make it almost useless. For example this quarter's guidance is in the range of $(810) million to $(410) million.

    2). If you did an historical audit checking the accuracy of the actual operating results with the guidance range, you would see the actual results are many times outside the range.

    3). Remember I said the guidance was for operating income/loss. Well that number is before interest income, interest expense and most importantly taxes. Just examine the income statements in say the last 12 quarterly reports and tell me how the income tax figure is derived.

    And if you really want an idea how different Amazon guidance is to earnings per share and even revenue, go read some Walmart quarterly reports.
    Oct 23 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Amazon Q3 2014 [View article]
    I think you did a very nice job with your article as you included many, many metrics which I am sure took a lot time to assemble.

    I did not intend to be insulting in my comments above. I am retired and spend a huge amount of time studying Amazon financials so I am somewhat familiar with the numbers.

    I would say, writing an article with as many metrics as you provided, and my having only two comments, is actually very impressive.
    Oct 21 04:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Amazon Q3 2014 [View article]
    You also said

    <<<If the company can produce an EPS closer to -$0.55 with revenue above $20.94 bln, market participants would be able to focus on next quarter's guidance>>>

    When Amazon released Q3/2013 earnings, the company issued guidance for Q4/2013. The guidance released then was for operating income (loss) between a range of a $500 million loss to a $500 million gain. I don't see how market participants can focus on a guidance range that is so broad, and even more problematic so broad as a plus and minus of $zero. I have never seen any company issue guidance with a range this large.
    Oct 21 04:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Amazon Q3 2014 [View article]
    You had one significant error in your article.

    You said: <<<The company also indicated operating income (loss) is expected to be between $(810) million and $410 million, so the midpoint is $(200) million>>>

    The correct range is between $(810) million and $(410) million. This also changes the midpoint to $(610) million.

    I do not understand the metrics Amazon used to calculate such a draconian number as $(810) million as that would create an historical loss and I do not see those headwinds. I wonder if Amazon had an agenda here?
    Oct 21 04:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Fresh launches in Brooklyn [View news story]

    I was never that good in ancient history. Like what was myth and what was fact?

    Is it true that Nero played the fiddle while Rome burned?

    Amazon seems to be playing a fiddle a bunch lately.
    Oct 17 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This's New Manhattan Store? [View article]

    Here is Other Sales Revenue by quarter since Q1/2012. As many of us assume, most of other sales revenue is from the cloud. Note the approximately 60%, YOY growth.

    Q1/2012 $500m

    Q2/2012 $554m

    Q3/2012 $648m

    Q4/2012 $820m

    Q1/2013 $798m

    Q2/2013 $892m

    Q3/2013 $1,011m

    Q4/2013 $1,234m

    Q1/2014 $1,257m

    Q2/2014 $1,218m

    Note we had a significant trend reversal last quarter as Q2 was $39m less than Q1. This was due to the cloud price cuts and a quarterly decrease was unprecedented.

    I am assuming 100% of Q2 revenue shortfall vs. the normal trend hit the bottom line.

    Did all the cloud customers get all of the cloud price cuts on April 1? If not what will Other Sales in Q3 be? Could Q3s Other Sales Revenue be more than $39m lower than Q2s? Or even worse did these cloud price cuts even hit the bottom line harder?

    Even with all my above negativity, I do not see how this comes even close to an $810 million operational quarterly loss even with $100m in additional content expense. Plus Fire Phone development costs will count for something. So I could see the low end (the $810m) of guidance loss been greatly exaggerated by Amazon which would not be surprising.

    So based on the above how much can Amazon actually lose in the 3rd quarter? Let us say the high end (high end is still a loss ) of the $410 million - $810 operational guidance loss or $410 million. Since Amazon guides operational losses let us convert that to a 70 cent per share loss which is just about the street estimate.

    Now it is Important to remember that a loss in cloud profitability is not seasonal (affected by holiday shopping), it is structural and just keeps happening.

    There has never been enough seasonality boost in Q4, to turn a 70 cent Q3 loss into a Q4 profit.

    In conclusion, "if" Amazon loses any where near their own guidance this quarter, the company needs to re-invent itself. And if not, I believe the company has serious problems.
    Oct 13 02:30 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 Earnings Preview [View article]

    I have no position in Twitter, but if you want to get a real laugh take a look at its numbers.

    Market cap of a tad more than $33 billion

    A little more than a $billion in revenue.

    And a GAAP loss of about a half a $billion this year.

    Twitter makes Amazon seem like General Motors during the Eisenhower administration.

    Since Twitter is not even close to having any earnings, I guess that earnings metric does not count there either. And Twitter could be an excellent example why shorting Amazon is so risky.
    Oct 9 04:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 Earnings Preview [View article]

    An earnings preview without an estimated earnings per share?

    Did I miss something in the article?
    Oct 9 03:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Google Slashing Cloud Computing Prices Again Is A Clear Negative For [View article]

    <<<But Amazon is barely cash flow positive and doesn't have anything to lose by expanding its low-margin strategy to cloud.>>>

    But before the price wars it may not have been low margin for Amazon. It may have been all their margin.

    This may be personal for Google....remember the two classes of stock. The drones and Charlie Rose may just have been enough for Google to take.
    Oct 5 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Google Slashing Cloud Computing Prices Again Is A Clear Negative For [View article]

    If you trended Other Sales (where cloud revenue resides), Q2 missed by about $150 million because of the cloud price cuts. I will assume this all hit the bottom line.

    I don't see the justification for the guidance of a $400 million to $800 million loss in operating income.

    I think there is a good chance the company purposely guided low.

    And If I am wrong...we could be done here as the company can not lose a $1 in Q3 and be profitable in Q4.
    Oct 4 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Google Slashing Cloud Computing Prices Again Is A Clear Negative For [View article]

    Paulo and Nick

    Nick's point is valid.

    The fly in this ointment would be if Amazon guided down for Q3, but actual earnings turn out to be much more positive. I would not put doing this beyond Amazon.

    So we wait.
    Oct 4 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Google Slashing Cloud Computing Prices Again Is A Clear Negative For [View article]

    You said regarding the 4 gas stations

    <<<The end result of this is mutually assured destruction for everyone, including whoever started out as the richest and most well-capitalized.>

    Well, you are mostly right. In my example I used 2 gas stations and you used 4. I think you used 4 because there are 4 major cloud player and maybe 5 if you include Oracle. You are also correct because MicroSoft has a stronger balance sheet than Google so Google loses that war.

    But let us remember some facts.

    This is an Amazon board so most of us are focused on Amazon.

    And my guess is Google sees everything you are saying (even though you helped me some). Maybe Google got into cloud not to profit on the cloud business but to protect their profits on their search business.

    It is not too great a stretch to see that all the customer data that Amazon has acquired over the years could be valuable for search. Maybe Google's price war with Amazon in the cloud is not really about the cloud at all?

    In closing I agree with just about everything you are saying. The only thing I am trying to say is the "situation" will be more harmful to Amazon than Google.
    Oct 4 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Google Slashing Cloud Computing Prices Again Is A Clear Negative For [View article]

    Your point is excellent that in the short run all companies lose in a price war.

    I am 64 years old. On Long Island in the late 60s, I saw two silly gas stations start a price war and one of them went out of business. How crazy.

    What I think you are missing is how dramataticaly stronger Google's balance sheet is.

    Your point about Google spending earnings to buy hard assets is valid but I do not see you focusing on the current account growth that Google has. The current account is a good way to separate the growth in cash without the increase in hard assets.

    In order to see this most easily, go to Yahoo finance and use the symbol GOOGL. Note the L as using GOOG does not provide access to Income Statement and Balance Sheet. Open Balance Sheet and observe Google's "quarterly" growth in their current account.

    Amazon had very close to zero growth in their current account last quarter.

    I think Amazon's balance sheet at the moment is their Achilles Heel.
    Oct 3 09:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Fire Phone And Kindle Voyage Developments [View article]
    Amazon's Balance Sheet

    Google's Balance Sheet
    Oct 1 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment