Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
Lildimsum7
So these analysts that value businesses for a living; are these the same analysts that evaluated: Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, Countrywide, Enron, the dot.com stocks, etc.
Or where the above analysts people who did their work as a hobby?
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
Paulo
I believe the company's Q2 earnings guidance was a range between a $340 million loss (-$.72 a share) to a $10 million profit (2 cents).
So when you are saying the company has a decent chance of beating the average estimate of 7 cents, does that mean you believe the company purposely under-estimated on guidance?
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
Timothy
Do you see any earnings scenario (such as the 16 cent loss estimate by the analyst for Q2 or the 22 cent loss estimate for Q3) that could send this stock down?
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
KRK
<<<Tacit price fixing >>> That is very good and something I never thought about. I do agree it would be a good idea for sellers.
I just wish I knew what someone like Lazard was thinking upping the target price to $310. This earnings trend for Q2 in Paulo's article is just terrible. How could Lazard ignore it? Either I am missing something or Lizard is just incompetent.
Here is some trivia. In 2000 at the height of the dot.com insanity, Lucent had a $272 billion market cap and today the cap is about $3 billion.
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
I think having price wars is basically the dumbest thing a business can do. I find treating your customers poorly a very bad business policy....but I have seen businesses survive that did do that as the sales end was good.
So in Amazon's case they have started price wars with everyone...and most of these companies have better balance sheets. Plus I just have a gut feeling that these competitors just do not like Amazon.
The odds of bankruptcy are still low...but the trend in the earnings estimate data in this article should be kind of mind blowing.
So I think a bankruptcy should have some odds of being in play.
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
KRK
I read the Hussman letter. It was good but here is the problem with the logic.
QE can not last forever...that is kind of a no brainier.
But not only (as Paulo keeps telling us) does QE goose the stock market, QE keeps interest rates incredibly low as we do not have a free market pricing debt, like it would if the debt was not being printed (Fed actually makes profit on game).
So if they eliminate QE, interest rates go up, and we have $16 trillion of debt. We could not afford a free market interest rate on that amount of debt...the deficit would be insane.
So I do not see this ending any way that is historically logical. As for holding cash vs. stock? I like holding Royal Dutch Shell with its 5+% yield and some real assets than have all my assets in a printed dollar.
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
I have access to the same data that Paulo used to write this article. The data gives the Q2/2013 earnings estimates and stock price for every day since October, 2011 to now.
What I found interesting about the data was the information it gave me for the historical perspective of my investment. I bought my first put on October 28, 2011. On that date I had no idea what the analysts were predicting earnings would be for the 2nd quarter of 2013. So on that date in 2011 the stock was selling for $217 and this quarters earnings estimate was for 97 cents. I could not have thought in my wildest dreams then the fundamentals would deteriorate so dramatically by May, 2013 (current earnings estimate of 7 cents). And even more fascinating than the fundamentals deteriorating...the stock would rise by $50.
Amazon (AMZN) now has more than 4K members in its partner network designed to help lure big businesses to use its cloud computing services, up from just over a thousand a year ago. The company thinks using a partner ecosystem of middlemen with developed solutions that function on AWS servers can help convince large corporations and government agencies to make the final leap to AWS. [View news story]
HS
I think Amazon is a joke and am short the stock.
I think the fact stock is up about $20 two weeks after analysts lowered this quarters earning estimates from 22 cents to 7 cents borders on criminal by same analysts who are increasing strike prices.
I think the daily news of some addition is silly.
But the above may make some sense...but still no one knows if AWS is profitable (or will be) with all the price cuts.
Amazon (AMZN) has bought Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) Liquavista e-reader display unit, The Digital Reader uncovers via Dutch regulatory filings; Amazon has subsequently confirmed the purchase. Past rumors indicated Samsung was trying to sell Liquavista, which was developing low-power color displays relying on a process called electrowetting, to Amazon for less than $100M. Look for Liquavista's tech to appear in future Kindle e-readers. [View news story]
It seems like almost everyday we get news of something new that Amazon is doing or someone that the company is buying.
With the earnings trend since 2010 as surprisingly bad as it looks, I wonder if the ship is taking on water (price wars and losing their sales tax advantage) and all this news is just an attempt at bailing out a ship in trouble.,
ChannelAdvisor Is Again Predicting Further Deceleration For Amazon.com [View article]
Paulo
<<<Many unnatural charts >>>
This is why polite discourse is valuable.
I don't understand charts. I look at the entire business (so in this case I say 471 million shares times stock price) and say what is this business worth.
I owned a tech company that we sold. To sell a company the buyer wants models that would cover maybe the first two years. Once you have the model you can go beyond the two years easily...but I always thought they were rather meaningless and I got the impression the buyer of our company agreed.
The primary reason you have models is there is not a lot of wiggle room in the fixed cost (rent, telephone, non-variable employees like the accountant, receptionist, etc.) so a buyer needs a model to quickly see if revenue drops how you can cut the variable costs.
Instead of having the accountant write the models, I wrote them (I started out as a programmer so I could do it). I also wrote them because I was in contact with the M&A lawyers so I could save the step of having to tell someone else what to do and we could turn out the models more quickly.
So when I look at Amazon, I ask myself, what would someone pay for this company.
And this has nothing to do with "un-natural charts".
Buy Or Sell Amazon On E-Commerce Sales Data? [View article]
They earned 18 cents in Q1.
The Q2 estimate is 7 cents. The Q3 estimate is 11 cents.
Add the three we get 36 cents..
So they will not earn $1.32 and the pe is higher than 204.
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
So these analysts that value businesses for a living; are these the same analysts that evaluated: Bear Stearns, Lehman, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, Countrywide, Enron, the dot.com stocks, etc.
Or where the above analysts people who did their work as a hobby?
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
I believe the company's Q2 earnings guidance was a range between a $340 million loss (-$.72 a share) to a $10 million profit (2 cents).
So when you are saying the company has a decent chance of beating the average estimate of 7 cents, does that mean you believe the company purposely under-estimated on guidance?
Regards,
Michael
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
Do you see any earnings scenario (such as the 16 cent loss estimate by the analyst for Q2 or the 22 cent loss estimate for Q3) that could send this stock down?
Or are earnings totally irrelevant?
Mike
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
<<<Tacit price fixing >>> That is very good and something I never thought about. I do agree it would be a good idea for sellers.
I just wish I knew what someone like Lazard was thinking upping the target price to $310. This earnings trend for Q2 in Paulo's article is just terrible. How could Lazard ignore it? Either I am missing something or Lizard is just incompetent.
Here is some trivia. In 2000 at the height of the dot.com insanity, Lucent had a $272 billion market cap and today the cap is about $3 billion.
So I guess anything is possible.
M
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
I missed the buy rating by Lizard but found it ($310) after your comment.
Thank you
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
I think having price wars is basically the dumbest thing a business can do. I find treating your customers poorly a very bad business policy....but I have seen businesses survive that did do that as the sales end was good.
So in Amazon's case they have started price wars with everyone...and most of these companies have better balance sheets. Plus I just have a gut feeling that these competitors just do not like Amazon.
The odds of bankruptcy are still low...but the trend in the earnings estimate data in this article should be kind of mind blowing.
So I think a bankruptcy should have some odds of being in play.
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
I read the Hussman letter. It was good but here is the problem with the logic.
QE can not last forever...that is kind of a no brainier.
But not only (as Paulo keeps telling us) does QE goose the stock market, QE keeps interest rates incredibly low as we do not have a free market pricing debt, like it would if the debt was not being printed (Fed actually makes profit on game).
So if they eliminate QE, interest rates go up, and we have $16 trillion of debt. We could not afford a free market interest rate on that amount of debt...the deficit would be insane.
So I do not see this ending any way that is historically logical. As for holding cash vs. stock? I like holding Royal Dutch Shell with its 5+% yield and some real assets than have all my assets in a printed dollar.
Good post and link.
M
Amazon - The Mystifying Estimates For The Quarter Just Ahead [View article]
I have access to the same data that Paulo used to write this article. The data gives the Q2/2013 earnings estimates and stock price for every day since October, 2011 to now.
What I found interesting about the data was the information it gave me for the historical perspective of my investment. I bought my first put on October 28, 2011. On that date I had no idea what the analysts were predicting earnings would be for the 2nd quarter of 2013. So on that date in 2011 the stock was selling for $217 and this quarters earnings estimate was for 97 cents. I could not have thought in my wildest dreams then the fundamentals would deteriorate so dramatically by May, 2013 (current earnings estimate of 7 cents). And even more fascinating than the fundamentals deteriorating...the stock would rise by $50.
Truly amazing!
What's Fueling Amazon's Incredible Revenue Growth? [View article]
Amazon (AMZN) now has more than 4K members in its partner network designed to help lure big businesses to use its cloud computing services, up from just over a thousand a year ago. The company thinks using a partner ecosystem of middlemen with developed solutions that function on AWS servers can help convince large corporations and government agencies to make the final leap to AWS. [View news story]
I think Amazon is a joke and am short the stock.
I think the fact stock is up about $20 two weeks after analysts lowered this quarters earning estimates from 22 cents to 7 cents borders on criminal by same analysts who are increasing strike prices.
I think the daily news of some addition is silly.
But the above may make some sense...but still no one knows if AWS is profitable (or will be) with all the price cuts.
Mike
Amazon (AMZN) has bought Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) Liquavista e-reader display unit, The Digital Reader uncovers via Dutch regulatory filings; Amazon has subsequently confirmed the purchase. Past rumors indicated Samsung was trying to sell Liquavista, which was developing low-power color displays relying on a process called electrowetting, to Amazon for less than $100M. Look for Liquavista's tech to appear in future Kindle e-readers. [View news story]
It seems like almost everyday we get news of something new that Amazon is doing or someone that the company is buying.
With the earnings trend since 2010 as surprisingly bad as it looks, I wonder if the ship is taking on water (price wars and losing their sales tax advantage) and all this news is just an attempt at bailing out a ship in trouble.,
Amazon Works On Alphabet Projects, Crowded Markets Ahead [View article]
The concensus is the stock will hit $314 this year as it struggles to earn a $1.
Forget developing a 3D phone...the above is the really amazing news!
ChannelAdvisor Is Again Predicting Further Deceleration For Amazon.com [View article]
<<<Many unnatural charts >>>
This is why polite discourse is valuable.
I don't understand charts. I look at the entire business (so in this case I say 471 million shares times stock price) and say what is this business worth.
I owned a tech company that we sold. To sell a company the buyer wants models that would cover maybe the first two years. Once you have the model you can go beyond the two years easily...but I always thought they were rather meaningless and I got the impression the buyer of our company agreed.
The primary reason you have models is there is not a lot of wiggle room in the fixed cost (rent, telephone, non-variable employees like the accountant, receptionist, etc.) so a buyer needs a model to quickly see if revenue drops how you can cut the variable costs.
Instead of having the accountant write the models, I wrote them (I started out as a programmer so I could do it). I also wrote them because I was in contact with the M&A lawyers so I could save the step of having to tell someone else what to do and we could turn out the models more quickly.
So when I look at Amazon, I ask myself, what would someone pay for this company.
And this has nothing to do with "un-natural charts".
Regards,
Michael
ChannelAdvisor Is Again Predicting Further Deceleration For Amazon.com [View article]
Paulo
I have been saying this for almost a year.
Please give me one stodgy large market cap stock that has worst fundamentals than Amazon. Remember the "market cap".
You can even forget worst, I will make the universe "almost close to as bad fundamentals".
Regards,
Michael