Perki

Intrinsic Value and Warren Buffett's BNSF Purchase

I believe most of the Burlington legacy railroad mineral rights were spun off in the 1970's to Burlington Resources. I think BR ended up as part of Conoco-phillips.

The motivation to buy seems fairly simple:
He wanted a "big" acquisition, to move out of USD and into hard assets. Railroads are a dependable but boring business, and when you have an extraordinary manager like Mr. Rose, who can squeeze a bit of extra profit out of it, you have a profitable situation with stable returns.

Restructuring LT debt with the better credit rating of Berk, and you already have a nice reduction in interest expenses.

Asset heavy companies do well in inflationary environments, railroads can increase market share, vis-a-vis trucking, in times of high petroleum prices.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe: All Aboard One of the Best Railroads

well now, months later, buffet owns the railroad at $100/share. Good analysis.

Why Apple Is Worth $80

One key to Apple, has been innovation of new ideas that really produce tremendous revenue growth. So, though the Mac Desktop line reached maturity, the Laptop line took off, the Ipod and Itunes matured and then the Iphone took off.

The result? Many strong products that are each in different phases of their life-cycle, and then a synergistic effect ( iPhone users switching to Mac Desktops), making this company's revenue projections extraordinarily complex looking out 10 years.

One fact remains, though Steve Jobs participation may have little effect on year to year results, ten years out, he has is a huge effect.

Why Apple Is Worth $80

It is always interesting to back-test models. This is not to say AT ALL that models that do well back testing with do well in the future.

However, I found, on an individual company basis, that a model that does not back-test 5 − 10yrs reasonably well, will not usually do well in the future.

So, based on the numbers for AAPL 10 years ago, how did your favorite model do in predicting prices of the stock?

Japanese Banks: It Ain't So If You Say It Ain't So

Yes, when we switched our "Official" unemployment rate, in the late '90's, from the U-5 (currently 11.1%) to the U-3 number (currently 9.8%) and though we still ignored the real number, U-6 (currently at 17%), we improved the economy measurably.

Now, if we changed the "Official" number to the U-1 figure, our unemployment would instantly drop to 5.4%. Problem solved!

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

Interesting article and comments.
I believe the scrapping of 200,000 cars, provides an underestimated benefit to the auto industry, and indirectly but significantly, the financial industry.

The value of every used car in inventory, or held as collateral, will increase immediately due to the removal of 200,000 units. Granted, the increase may be small on an individual car basis, but quite significant across the millions of cars the financial industry is "holding" in auto inventory and consumer financing.

Six Myths About Smart Grid

Newsflash: hackers can already shut down the whole power grid ( except for parts of Texas) by accessing three systems. The "smart gird" referred to here is for consumers of power.


On Jul 14 09:27 AM drzarkov wrote:

> One thing the smart grid will do: make it easier for hackers to shut
> down the entire nation's power grid with a single attack. I'm all
> in favor of interconnecting the grid to enable shipping of power
> across regions, which will enable wind and solar power to be used
> in Eastern metro areas. I predict that most will reject the idea
> that the government should decide what temperature their house should
> be. Subsidizing the system to provide an artificially low price
> will increase, not decrease the cost of living, due to the need to
> increase taxes to cover the cost. The author is an imbecile.

Six Myths About Smart Grid

You may underestimate the simple things. People change habits with real time information. Just look at what "real-time" gasoline prices do for consumption!

I installed a simple power monitor that shows the KW being used at the moment, right in my web browser tool bar. I literally use 40% less energy.

I glance at the toolbar, it is showing 3kw, and I realize i left the coffee pot on. Seems like a little thing, but 1.1KW coffee maker heat production requires 2KW of additional A/C energy to compensate. It makes a difference!

Also, moving high wattage appliances (to evenings or low usage times) has a huge effect on the future base-load investment of the power company. It can delay or eliminate the future cost of very expensive base-load plants. Energy late at night is very cheap. If these savings are passed on, then the savings can be substantial.

Shiller: Expect More Home Price Declines

Yes, real estate prices will keep dropping ( see Japan) and the banks are no more solvent than they were before the disclosure rules were changed ( also see Japan ).

Setting the Record Straight on SaaS

Forester's projections over over 2 years out have proven wildly in-accurate. So much so that some purchase the research and bet against them as a successful investment strategy.

In other words, Forrester Research projections are a good way to tell what is NOT going to happen.

NYT Broadband Story: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies Make Bad Journalism

What a nice summary of how our "news" is created. Though we, the readers, are ultimately at fault because we search for the "news" that fits our viewpoint. I am not sure if we do this consciously or not, though I am sure that we do it!

Using "follow the money" as a critical thinking strategy when evaluating "news" is useful.

No where more evident than in the case of the NYT and a employee-reporter. When broadband is more convenient than the newsstand, well that is proving to be a money outflow problem for the NYT.

How Far to a Housing Bottom?

I believe this was simply a bubble due to easy financing in some areas, and when you remove the "bubble" housing prices will return to the past trend. It is already happening.

When you look at Case-Shiller data by metro area, those that went up the most, are going down the most, but stilll back to 2002 pricing.
Note that regional variations in home prices are great, but a common factor is a return to each geographical areas home prices of 2002-2003. See tinyurl.com/7hovj6

Why the Housing Stats Are Lumpy

I have a simple view of the real estate price changes. The areas most overbought due to mortgage glut, are "resetting" to 2003 prices.

Those that went up the most are coming down the most. See for self.

I have plotted historical Case-Schiller data by metro area over the last 21 years. The graph tells the story. tinyurl.com/7hovj6

What Will Happen to All That Money the Government's Making?

The wealth lost was pseudo-wealth. A derivative based on the concept of wealth. In theory, wealth is like energy or water, you lose it, but it is never lost, it just flows somewhere else. Like an ex-wife, another trader, another country...

So where did the $15 trillion go? In theory, someone was on the other side of that transaction. A balancing entry had to be made...

Maybe I think about these things too deeply.



On Jan 15 10:32 PM curbs-in wrote:

> Seriously,
>
> Look at page 113
>
> www.federalreserve.gov...
>
> The loss of wealth from Q4 2007 to Q3 2008 was about $8 trillion.
> For 2008, all assets may have lost around $15 trillion or more.
> The Fed is using a peashooter against an atomic bomb. Won't work.
> No way, no how.
>
> These bailouts are all for the appearance of an economy -- a psudo-economy,
> but we are in a steep dive and going down faster and faster.
>
> Confidence? The likes of Bernanke, Pelosi, Frank and Dodd sitting
> at the same table... Confidence? How could anyone have confidence,
> when ever quarter Bernanke has to pump-up the banks to the tune of
> $350 billion so they'll look like their solvent?
>
> CNBC, CNN-Money, Bloomberg and the usual media hype suspects are
> not doing the trick this time. People are hip to their buy, buy,
> buy scams and are sick of it.
>
> Confidence... Someday... When the government gets its nose out of
> every aspect of the market system.

Oil Price Lower on Inventory Numbers, But It Can't Go Much Lower

The demand forecast is interesting. If demand holds up, of course the price will have to go up. However improbable it may sound now, world-wide demand COULD drop by a large amount. What would happen to oil prices if we have month to month demand collapse, for an extended period, on the order of 2-3% per month?

The first warning sign will be defaults on delivery obligations for crude oil futures contracts. Given the current economic situation, any thing can happen.