Perki

Why Apple Is Worth $80

One key to Apple, has been innovation of new ideas that really produce tremendous revenue growth. So, though the Mac Desktop line reached maturity, the Laptop line took off, the Ipod and Itunes matured and then the Iphone took off.

The result? Many strong products that are each in different phases of their life-cycle, and then a synergistic effect ( iPhone users switching to Mac Desktops), making this company's revenue projections extraordinarily complex looking out 10 years.

One fact remains, though Steve Jobs participation may have little effect on year to year results, ten years out, he has is a huge effect.

Why Apple Is Worth $80

It is always interesting to back-test models. This is not to say AT ALL that models that do well back testing with do well in the future.

However, I found, on an individual company basis, that a model that does not back-test 5 − 10yrs reasonably well, will not usually do well in the future.

So, based on the numbers for AAPL 10 years ago, how did your favorite model do in predicting prices of the stock?

Apple's (the Stock) Best Days May be Behind It - Try Thoratec Instead

Actually, they usually dump them at $5.00, not $1.00.

Is this the pump and dump thread with an AAPL subject line?

Sorry, you have been scammed. Well maybe you are part of the scam?

Anyone else just go to:

www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/br...

There, you can read all about nothing but how much restricted stock they are giving away on this fine little company that offers $900 in stock options when they lose $2.7 ml on $3.5ml revenue and suffer recalls and defective products and more...

What ARE you smoking?

On Jan 14 01:02 PM L. SMITH wrote:

> The stock I love most happens to be one of the "falling angels" (fell
> below $1) .
>
> When a stock fell below $1, many mutual funds dumped.



> Thermogenesis (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) had a minor product
> recall at the worst time of stock market.
>
> No debt, plenty of cash, new products coming out on schedule, no
> real competition on products offered and just about to become profitable
> for the 1st time. Do your dd before investing as always.

Apple: A Question of Leadership

I do see a valid point here. The most valid notion is that a company is still very profitable after the peak interest in a product. Valuation is down due to the loss of the innovator, yet due to sheer inertia, the sales volume is good, though dropping, many costs have been fully amortized, and the company is "coasting" down the demand curve.

In marketing, this is known as the "cash-cow" phase. The most profitable phase. A phase that investors in high-tech outfits disdain--so programmed they are to look for the next "hot thing" they miss the most profitable "cash-cows".

Microsoft has a good number of years as a cash-cow, as long as the management does not waste capital in fruitless efforts to make the company an innovator again. IBM did it to some extent; Microsoft cannot.

Best to return to the investors the most possible return while realizing that a big company cannot innovate in the face of lots of very nimble competition. A good anology here is a large oilfield, it will decline, profitably, in production. You can do a few cost effective things to tweak production, but you can never bring it back to its maximum rate of production. Oil executives know this.

Frankly, a good oil executive would be a good person to run Microsoft, and in the future, Apple (Yeah, I know, the Pepsi guy wasn't so hot).

Apple too is moving into this phase. The lack of innovative new products recently can be traced directly to Steve Jobs health. His declining input since his health problems began (years ago) are starting to show in the current low innovation. See this article to get an idea of his impact on a new product. www.wired.com/gadgets/...

It is not all about health, it is about energy. Bill Gates lost enthusiasm without losing health, after the most remarkable journey from entrepreneur to successfully running a very large company every seen in the history of business.

I wish Steve Jobs well and say "well done". He is leaving a good company for investors that see a value in "cash - cows". When AAPL is falling from favor with the Valley-set, and the 8-10 times earnings prices set in, I will be there.

Is the Microsoft Empire Cracking?

Further... the whole personal computer on a desktop is becoming obsolete due to the "Software as a Service" of applications over the Internet.
Now, so much work can be accomplished ( Email, documents, spreadsheets, photo manipulation, programing etc) without using your operating system or local software for anything other than it's web browser.

So the Windows vs Linux vs OS x argument on the desktop will soon be moot. It really doesn't matter what O/S you are using if you are just using a browser.

Is the Microsoft Empire Cracking?

Ouch. Billions dude!

Chris, when you are still netting $Billions on the Windows O/S every year, it is a little early to throw it out. When you have the most profitable and popular operating system in the world, you stick with it until it it only as profitable as say, Mac's OSx. Based on current trends, that will be 2017 or 2018 at the earliest.

I am a programmer that prefers a Mac, but I still bought a Windows XP license for it to run under VMware for all of the Windows software I need to use on occasion. Many people have. Many will continue to do so because of the huge selection of application software still being developed under Windows.