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jbde

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  • Caterpillar CEO: Realignment of China economy to affect sales [View news story]
    Once again management has to acknowledge reality.
    And once again, they will underestimate the impact.

    CAT has been propped up with hope and of course its dividend.
    Recent rising rates make the dividend 'less' attractive on a relative basis.
    Is there a point where the dividend will be in jeopardy?
    Mgmt will do [say] everything they can to support the stock. But in the face of several qtrs. of losses, what will happen?
    They cannot hold back the tide for long - and the markets will anticipate the problems as the hope for realigned dealers [nice terminology] proves a mirage.

    A break of the recent support and 50-dma should now be about to happen - less than 5% away.
    As the WW economic situation deteriorates rapidly over the next few months, a test of the 80 level is not far fetched.

    Slowing manufacturing in China is certainly not good for miners and especially mining equipment suppliers.

    Coal is down and out, being supplanted by nat gas.
    Copper stockpiles are probably higher than publicly known.

    Without a concerted infrastructure works program in the US, we alone cannot be the only area that supports CAT. Losing power generation contracts to Cummins, et al does not help either.

    Sorry, but I see CAT as a house of cards - just a little shake and down it comes.

    So, what is the bull case?

    With the negatives piling up, it will be a matter of time - when markets correct, basic materials, mining and mining equipment stocks will lead the downside.
    Mar 24 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: Betting On The Recovery In The Mining Sector [View article]
    Good luck:

    Funny that layoffs are a way to prepare for expansion in mining orders.
    Miners over-working new machines? If true, when they wear, miners will look to repair not buy new. And repair not only means spare parts from OEM's but reworking of parts to save money.

    Consider that commodity demand is not there and will wane even more.
    Shifts from coal to nat gas and nuclear [yes, US has 3 plants underway].
    Also, there is plenty of scrap to be 'mined' as more floods into scrap yards from individuals and businesses finding 'gold' in the stuff littering the landscape.

    CAT miscalculated on the mining capex over-expansion and they will again miss the fact that commodity demand is shifting. How many lives do they have left? They have bought back shares to prop the stock price and have worthy competitors.

    We are at the END of a 5 year recovery and are beginning to see the rollover occur. US housing never came back despite price recovery. Markets are drawing in the last suckers in the face of dropping consumer disposable income. Worse thing that could happen: a rise in the prime rate as many are teetering on financial disaster if rates on credit cards or home equity loans move up. The FED's hands are tied and a reversal of the recent tapering will not help. Massive jobs programs are needed [what of all those crumbling bridges?] and Congress will relent when crisis occurs and not before - as it should - like NOW.

    So: short CAT for at least a return to low 80's - economic decline over the next two years should bring it ultimately to the low 50's - purely supported by the dividend, if not cut.

    Curious fact: this was my 666th post - SPX 666 to be tested?
    Mar 7 06:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reassessing Caterpillar From The Ground Up [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words.

    Of course, for traders it is all about timing.
    I shuttered my modular manufacturing plant in 2006 and could not convince my friend hooked on NVR - he loaded up and got caught.
    Of course it has rallied back to a tidy 1,100 and worth a short again.

    But I know of a lot of people who jumped into buying foreclosures and had no idea what they were doing. They moved too soon. I bought my 1st a couple of months ago - an OREO. It was a flop house - got it for $18K - fixed it up - now appraised at $80K and I am holding it as a rental. Prior owner paid $64K and got foreclosed. I am looking at 2 more where the owners paid too much and both are condemned. So I will be joint venturing with them, providing the cash and skills to rehab and rent. They of course get to take a cold bath, but avoid eventual foreclosure.

    Being right, but early means you cry wolf a lot and it eventually falls on deaf ears. Just about the time the wolf comes to knock!

    Point being - I feel strongly that we have had a good run from March 2009, but now it is time to run down. As I believe the WW economic situation is fragile at best, there is a good chance we test SPX 666 - nothing better than making money on the downside and being able to buy things [and stocks] cheap with the king - CASH.

    [today we see IBM pulling a cat out of the hat and buying back 15B in stock - no better use for the money, eh? ]
    Oct 29 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reassessing Caterpillar From The Ground Up [View article]
    Stocks that do not rise with the market fall harder when the market falls. It's all about relative strength. CAT has held 80 and failed to breakout above 90 as the S&P500 has enjoyed a protracted run which continues to new highs each day of recent.

    There will be a period of consolidation soon since the leadership has become narrower. As a trader, I look for such opportunities. I made a nice multiple on buying puts the day before the earnings with stock at the top of its range having bounced from the bottom.

    Odds were that there would be no breakout. The earnings miss after a warning only a month before was not anticipated and does not speak well of management. It portends more of the same which I suspect will be compounded by some serious write-offs dumped on the books in Q4.

    Basic materials enjoyed a boom which lead to over supply and ambitious expansion plans. Prices indicate no tightness as the major consumer of basic materials - construction - is waning especially in places like China. Although consumers may enjoy and demand goods and a higher standard of living, the proportion of basic materials going into these end-use areas is far from making up the losses due to over building and speculative hoarding like we saw in copper.

    In short, it will end badly and we have not seen the end. There will be a second cleansing of the worldwide economies before things normalize and a long period of really slow growth begins.

    CAT eventually tests the 40 to 45 area - IMHO.
    The dividend keeps it from going lower - I agree it provides support, but does not make up for the capital loss.

    If you own the stock, write the calls - write the 80's now as the stock is falling from the top of the range. Re-evaluate when it gets back to the bottom of the range.

    Market circumstances when the stock breaks 80 will make buying a poor decision.
    "when the whore house burns, the pretty ones run with the ugly ones"
    Oct 29 05:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reassessing Caterpillar From The Ground Up [View article]
    The recovery is over and worldwide consumption is dropping - look at the top lines.

    'Hoping' that mining will turn around is not an investment thesis.

    Huge expansion plans citied just a year ago are now being cut drastically - obviously the miners see what is going on and ambitious capex is getting slashed.

    Miners, as well as construction, etc. are delaying repairs or simply refusing to buy replacement parts when re-working in-house is less costly - they have the idle labor, so they put it to use. You cannot hide the fact that replacement parts are off across the board.

    CAT breaks 80 and heads south. Buying back stock and raising the dividend to prop up the stock is not a wise use of investor's retained earnings!

    Management cut estimates a month ago and still missed - they do not get another pass. It is clear they under-estimate the severity of their marketplaces.

    In short [pun intended], the downturn has started in the lead items - basic materials - and it is foolish at best to invest on hope!
    Oct 28 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest StatCounter Data Suggest BlackBerry Will Beat On The Quarter [View article]
    From your mouth to God's ears - let it be so!
    Jun 25 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar (CAT) issues a two-year 1.8B yuan ($290M) bond with a coupon of 3.25%. The debt is rated A2 by Moody's and A by S&P and Fitch. Meanwhile, Caterpillar plans to lay off 260 out of 800 production workers at a plant in South Milwaukee due to falling demand for mining equipment. [View news story]
    Well there you go, just a day or so ago I posted that the problem with CAT was the mining industry and now we see it is true - at least in the US. [and we know the huge worldwide mining companies have announced capex cutbacks]

    The company has to admit that it bit off more than it could chew and underestimated the future fortunes of mining.

    During the China hey-day of buying all commodities, it became obvious that it was a fools game when we saw empty cities and learned of copper being use as currency - collateral for loans.

    Despite dividend boosts and 'expedited' buybacks, you cannot cheat the worldwide economy. We are on the verge of 'The Great Recession Two' as it will come when pent-up demand wanes and manufacturing drifts lower and lower.

    I still see the stock falling into the mid 50's.
    Jun 18 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: 15% Dividend Increase Makes It A Buy [View article]
    "at lower prices it will be better"

    CAT has recently spent shareholder money to authorize an 'expedited share purchase' and to increase its dividend. The latter adds supports, the former too by raising eps on less shares.
    But supporting the stock by unwise stock buybacks is not prudent.

    The company's foray into mining was based on unsustainable commodity demand which is now panning out as having been overly optimistic. Large miners are cutting capex and China construction is being curtailed now at faster rates.

    If this is the best that can be achieved in this 'recovery,' what will we see when the next downturn comes?
    I suspect we will enter into a worldwide recession as China wanes [and possibly implodes from loans gone bad to companies and individuals - empty 'cities' and speculators haing bought apartments for rental.]

    You have to watch car sales, as next to housing, they are a great indication of economic conditions. As we start to see pent-up demand falter, you get the shot across the bow.

    I see the stock falling into the mid 50's.
    Jun 17 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Poised For A Volatile Month [View article]
    RE: Bloomberg - "ten of millions"
    If you listen to the interview, he actually says "several tens of millions" and I do not think you can dismiss the extra emphasis that TH was conveying.

    Secondly we broke the downside trendline of the prior wedge - score one for the bears - but no accelerated selling - score one for the bulls.
    So the wedge shown in the chart is simply a new trendline with lower support points than the prior one [which ran through 13.10 low].

    You have to anticipate that even if the Q10 sales are strong, the shorts will say "so what" it was just the faithful upgrading and there is no long term growth.
    Jun 11 08:05 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting BlackBerry: What You Need To Know [View article]
    This is a great article:

    RE your statement: "Since these shares are callable at any time"

    Taking this to the extreme - could all loaned shares be 'called' en masse [assuming that is possible to arrange out side of conspiracy]?
    So longs could buy out of the money calls, then buy in the money calls to force option market makers to hedge by buying the stock, then call their lent stock!

    Now there is the potential for over 100% of the normal float to be held by closely held parties, institutions and hedging market makers.

    Thus the shorts have to lure someone to sell to them - thus the squeeze spirals out of control ...... to infinity.

    A short squeeze - not withstanding the fundamentals!

    One theory I have proposed on SA is that sophisticated shorts with deep pockets in changing sides would not surrender their borrowed shares, less they may not be able to get them back.

    Say they are short X shares and then want to go long. They simply buy 2X as a new opening position and thus are net long 1X.
    To 'go short' again they simply sell [close] the 2X long position.

    Do you believe this happens?
    Jun 6 05:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Security; The Reason To Buy And Hold BlackBerry [View article]
    Preaching to the choir.

    The only thing to wait for now is the earnings report on the 28th.
    Unless of course the company makes some sort of pre-announcement.

    Until then, let the stock trade aroundl and shorts cover if they want to.

    When you see a rise on volume - get in if not there already.
    Buy some deep-in-the-money calls and ride along.

    Technically the stock has broken down from its symmetrical triangle, but did nothing more than hit some stops - no protracted selling. Thus has to be read as a fake-out for now.

    However, it needs to recover the up trendline which is at 14.08 today and rising 3 cents a day.

    I am long
    Jun 4 10:01 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry (BBRY) has upped its component purchases from Taiwanese suppliers thanks to strong BB10 sales, supply chain sources tell Digitimes. The sources add Indonesian and Middle Eastern sales are healthy, and that if other emerging markets prove strong, BlackBerry is likely to ship 30M-40M smartphones in 2013 - Feb. quarter shipments totaled 6M, and were down 23% Y/Y. BBRY +1% in spite of lower NASDAQ futures. The sell-side has been arguing back and forth over BB10's early reception. [View news story]
    Okay then - the stock was trading as high as 14.74 pre-mkt only to open and go down 16 cents.
    Were market makers caught off-guard?
    Certainly some institutions must be accumulating more?
    Still negative - off 11 cents at 11AM

    I am long
    May 31 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    Again - thanks for confirming the latest trading bottom and bounce off the bottom of the 3-month symmetrical triangle lower trendline!

    And today we get news of increased production and supplier estimating 30M to 40M unit this year.

    "several tens of millions" as Heins said.
    May 31 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    Thanks for the buy signal:
    As longs get bored and capitulate - that is the time to get in.

    VZ started pre-orders today [see their website] with pickup on 6/6.

    As to your charts and your symmetrical triangle:
    Where you draw the lines is subjective - I use the following
    18.32 and 16.59 for the down trendline; and,
    10.59 and 13.10 for the up trendline [12.15 and 13.10???]

    I do this on a weekly chart and get the breakout/breakdown points for this week of 16.10 and 13.70 respectively.

    So no need to panic yet.
    Also stochastics are oversold like in March, but price has only dropped form 16.59 to 14.08 - both reactionary tails.
    One good up day will cause MACD to flash a buy signal - this shows how tight the recent action has been.

    Also the UBB Equilibirum for today is 16.14 which is just above the breakout point.
    This 'permits' a move to breakout within the UBB.

    TWT - I am long
    May 30 09:18 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's On Third? Nokia And BlackBerry Have Surprisingly Strong Positions In Some Markets [View article]
    I am miffed that some analyst has not modeled Q5 as of yet.
    Jefferies for example [unless Misek is hiding in fear of his life from the shorts].

    The company has announced earnings date without a warning.
    But can we read that there will be a positive surprise.
    Stock so far says "no" but that may be the shorts continuing to add to their positions.

    Now is the time for institutions to gather up some of those shares manufactured by the shorts - there are 464M + 170M or 634M shares held long.

    What happens when over 100% of the issued and outstanding shares are thus held tightly by insiders and institutions?
    May 29 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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