jbde

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

GDP should be reported ex-stimulus.
Only then do you get the real numbers.

Most of what has been spent so far has 'preserved' government jobs - mostly at the state and local levels.

Who needs 3 city planners on the dole? Government layoffs are inevitable and tax payers will not stand for tax increases - even to support schools. Teacher layoffs are occurring and class sizes are increased for those who were lucky to keep their jobs.

Got your gun yet?

Serious Questions About Canadian Solar

Everyone knows CSIQ is a China manufacturer - not news - not an omission.

For whatever reason CSIQ is performing and so is it's stock. You have to assume those who really know what is going on in the company and the industry approve.

Now let's talk TSL - the real winner!

SunPower Clings to March Lows

Why?

Should have been in TSL or CSIQ where there are real growing eps.

As SPWRA has most efficient cells, that is not enough. You have to run a profitable business in a period of declining asp's. And when prices increase, the ones that have their act together already, will only get better.

Whitney Gets Bearish: Will She Be Right Again?

Guy,

On FastMoney everyone is just so giddy about the market's continuing to rise.

I do not want to hear [after it breaks and falls] that 'we told you so'

Someone needs to tell it like it is - now! Too many 'faces' are in their ivory towers - trading on the perils of others.

Get out there and see what is really happening. More and more empty stores, too many houses for sale, too many vacant rentals - any panhandlers in your neighborhood?

It's easy to pick on poor Meredith, but at least she does not sugar coat what she thinks.

Sure the big get bigger as the small and middle business perish.

Meredith Whitney: 'I Haven't Been This Bearish in a Year'

Okay folks: [not talking down to you]

Observations first:

MW is certainly right that the banks are under-capitalized. Her need to comment on the market as being overbought - I excuse as a venting of her frustration of trumped-up GDP growth based on government spending while personal income is dropping. GDP should be reported as ex-government stimulus.

Check the two real numbers [no seasonal adjustments] we get - unemployment claims and tax receipts. Everything else is suspect. Does anyone think that the seasonal adjustments for temp help this holiday season makes any sense?

Watch the layoffs once the January sales are over. Watch the stores close as no-one is going to lease for 9 months waiting for the next 'profiy' season.

If the FED has to have at least 4 say [including the chairman and vice-chair] that we are NOT in an asset bubble - then we ARE in an asset bubble.

China cannot support 'internal' spending anymore and exports are not cutting it. A one-point rise in the DXY will bring on panic.

The ride has been great and when GS says thing are no longer good [after reversing their positions], the initial down move will be swift.

Now for the reality of what is to come:

Time to mark-to-market those mortgage and REO 'assets'
you cannot kick the can down the road forever.

The banks are really scared and know the day of reckoning is near - not from commercial [which of course will collapse many small banks], but good ol' residential. The Alt-A onslaught will dwarf sub-prime and will last into 2012.

At some point the dam breaks and the banks will be forced to dump the houses they are holding onto the market. The assets begin to physically deteriorate beyond what the pencil can hide. And then, it is too late.

Markets go up and markets go down - it's time for some down.

All said IMHO

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

Don't get me started on GS [so I will not]

The facts are:
There is plenty of oil production now
Iraq is about to come online in a big way with oilfield upgrades
There is record oil in storage
There is oil being 'parked' in barges

The results will be:
Price will correct when the commodity bubble bursts
After dropping into the 20's prices will recover to $50-60
All production costs [except oil sands] will be covered by this range
Oil producers will make a profit but cannot get price back up
[with margins cut, there will be quota cheating]

Why:
We are enterring a period of rampant defalation
Every commodity, finished good and trinket will be sold for cash

Blankfein Defends Goldman, Is Flippant with Facts

Goldman Sachs provides no worthwhile purpose.
They make nothing, they help nobody.

They trade for themselves with government money.
Ask yourself - for every $ profit they make, who did they TAKE it from?
It's simply a transfer of wealth TO THEM.

Banks should not be permitted to trade for their OWN accounts.

Plain and simple.

Earnings Season: The Car Is Shiny, But Look Under the Hood

Bulls say that companies have become lean and mean and any uptick in revenue will go directly to the bottom line; thus all is well.

Reality is that businesses are scared. They would not have done so much cost cutting [mostly people] if they did see things getting worse - much worse. All discretionary purchases can be postponed if not dropped completely. And there is constant downsizing on necessities - lesser brands, quality and of course price.

We are entering a period of deflation that will be evident in the press over the winter. What will a person sell in order to pay for heat? And they will be forced to take what is offered. Used car prices enjoyed a bump, but just look at the markdowns in the weekly mags - unprecedented as the small guys clamor to sell something.

Manufacturers of consumer goods will fight for whatever business they can get - they will cut prices until they kill each other.

Just after the holidays, retail stores will close in mass and the commercial real estate crisis will be in full force.

Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo Stocking Up on Liquidity

The large banks are preparing for the day of reckoning [wrecking]. They are hording liquidity because they know what is about to happen. They are hiding the losses and when they are forced to mark to market [by liquidating housing and commercial assets], the losses will pour.

Confidence in the banks will wane to zero and we will see bank runs. Expect the government to test its new 'not too big to fail' rules by breaking up Citi. BofA can avoid this by spinning MER off.

We are in a period of deflation that will start to spiral downward. There are no more piggybanks for consumers; and when you have to by oil or gas to heat your house, you will sell anything you can for whatever you can get.

Instead of giving 'stimulus' money to municipalities, the money should have been spent on creating jobs to old fashion way - work programs! Bridges, roads, grid, solar, nukes, wind. How many urban planners do you need writing reports? Get rid of the waste. The bloated positions added over the boom years need to go - instead they keep them and axe the teachers.

Airlines: Some Costs They Can't - And Shouldn't - Cut

Please explain the math:

"Today, like most every day, just over 44,000 experienced pilots"
"Over the next 24 hours, these pilots will make over 13,500 take-offs"
"they will be in command of over 36,000 hours of flight time"

This implies 3.2 crew members per leg.
Even if each cockpit crew is 3 - pilot, co-pilot and flight engineer, this seems way wrong as on average crews fly more than one leg per day if each leg averages only 2.7 hours. [I generously assume the 36,000 of flight time is leg-time and not aggregate pilot flight hours as it is hard to imagine only .82 flight-hours per pilot per day - 36,000 hour flight time divided among 44,000 pilots]

If only considering pilots, no way 44,000 used, even if each crew only flies 1 leg => 2x13,500 = 27,000

Also, what is the average load factor per leg been over the years?
The trend to larger aircraft increases this average, thus more passenger hours would naturally mean cockpit wage dollars per seat-hour would drop if salaries were the same. Dollars per seat-hour could even be dropping over time even if pilot salaries are rising.

Clearly more data [trends of - pilot count, aircraft size, load factor] is needed to confirm that cockpit crew costs are falling when measured by dollars per passenger seat-hour.

Was the Chicago PMI Leaked?

That fact that some can pay for the report does not make it 'unleaked'
Anyone getting advance information on a traditional market moving report is a crook. GS probably pays a lot more for 15mins advance 'peak.'
This practice of making a buck on such a report prior to public disclosure should be stopped - period!

Short ETFs: Time to Buy - Not Sell

all they have to do is show the math
for an ultra short starting with underlying nav/index and eft both starting at 100:
underlying goes down 2% to 98, eft goes up to 104
underlying goes back to 100 the next day, for a 2.0408 move
the eft goes down by 4.0816% to 99.7551
thus eft does not recover full value
assumes perfect tracking - but the buyer should know this risk
it's just the math of percentages.
leverage etfs are best on streaks not saw-tooth action
duh!

What Stories Aren't Being Told?

We are being setup for a huge fall in the markets as everything put in to makes things better fail. Most of the stimulus money so far has gone to the states to help bail them out especially as school started. But the layoffs of teachers is now unprecedented as stated have direverted funds to other 'more pressing' needs.

The sollar has essentially collapsed and even though, oil has not broken out above 75. Why? Because oil demand is falling. The dollar will rally and watch commodity prices fall. When?

Expect current rally to continue into Q3 reporting, then watch out as companies will again take every write-off they can in Q4.

Talk about liar loans [Alt-A], the real issue is liar valuation, where the banks now do not have to market assets to market, but to recovery.

When the big boys [GS] have sold into the public buying and have their shorts in hand, watch how fast the news will turn to doom and gloom from the happy days of recovery we have now.

Postal Service Set to Lead the Way in Deploying Electric Fleet

Stupid government again - CNG is certainly the right choice for such flleet vehicles with a home-base - even better: you spin-up an inertial flywheel with the CNG motor and use the more effeciient stored energy for all that stop-and-go.

First Solar Sell-Off Is Overdone

I guess about everything has been said. My position, as pointed out by others, is the limited downside for thinfilm costs of materials and production, whereas silicon has a long way to go as mass production plants [LDK] come online. The module packaging and installation area required are also negatives for thinfilm [less efficient per sf, thus requires more land/roof than silicon modules. Not to mention more glass, more aluminum, more supports, more wiring, more transportation costs, more, more, etc.