jbde

Earnings Season: The Car Is Shiny, But Look Under the Hood

Bulls say that companies have become lean and mean and any uptick in revenue will go directly to the bottom line; thus all is well.

Reality is that businesses are scared. They would not have done so much cost cutting [mostly people] if they did see things getting worse - much worse. All discretionary purchases can be postponed if not dropped completely. And there is constant downsizing on necessities - lesser brands, quality and of course price.

We are entering a period of deflation that will be evident in the press over the winter. What will a person sell in order to pay for heat? And they will be forced to take what is offered. Used car prices enjoyed a bump, but just look at the markdowns in the weekly mags - unprecedented as the small guys clamor to sell something.

Manufacturers of consumer goods will fight for whatever business they can get - they will cut prices until they kill each other.

Just after the holidays, retail stores will close in mass and the commercial real estate crisis will be in full force.

Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo Stocking Up on Liquidity

The large banks are preparing for the day of reckoning [wrecking]. They are hording liquidity because they know what is about to happen. They are hiding the losses and when they are forced to mark to market [by liquidating housing and commercial assets], the losses will pour.

Confidence in the banks will wane to zero and we will see bank runs. Expect the government to test its new 'not too big to fail' rules by breaking up Citi. BofA can avoid this by spinning MER off.

We are in a period of deflation that will start to spiral downward. There are no more piggybanks for consumers; and when you have to by oil or gas to heat your house, you will sell anything you can for whatever you can get.

Instead of giving 'stimulus' money to municipalities, the money should have been spent on creating jobs to old fashion way - work programs! Bridges, roads, grid, solar, nukes, wind. How many urban planners do you need writing reports? Get rid of the waste. The bloated positions added over the boom years need to go - instead they keep them and axe the teachers.

Airlines: Some Costs They Can't - And Shouldn't - Cut

Please explain the math:

"Today, like most every day, just over 44,000 experienced pilots"
"Over the next 24 hours, these pilots will make over 13,500 take-offs"
"they will be in command of over 36,000 hours of flight time"

This implies 3.2 crew members per leg.
Even if each cockpit crew is 3 - pilot, co-pilot and flight engineer, this seems way wrong as on average crews fly more than one leg per day if each leg averages only 2.7 hours. [I generously assume the 36,000 of flight time is leg-time and not aggregate pilot flight hours as it is hard to imagine only .82 flight-hours per pilot per day - 36,000 hour flight time divided among 44,000 pilots]

If only considering pilots, no way 44,000 used, even if each crew only flies 1 leg => 2x13,500 = 27,000

Also, what is the average load factor per leg been over the years?
The trend to larger aircraft increases this average, thus more passenger hours would naturally mean cockpit wage dollars per seat-hour would drop if salaries were the same. Dollars per seat-hour could even be dropping over time even if pilot salaries are rising.

Clearly more data [trends of - pilot count, aircraft size, load factor] is needed to confirm that cockpit crew costs are falling when measured by dollars per passenger seat-hour.

Was the Chicago PMI Leaked?

That fact that some can pay for the report does not make it 'unleaked'
Anyone getting advance information on a traditional market moving report is a crook. GS probably pays a lot more for 15mins advance 'peak.'
This practice of making a buck on such a report prior to public disclosure should be stopped - period!

Short ETFs: Time to Buy - Not Sell

all they have to do is show the math
for an ultra short starting with underlying nav/index and eft both starting at 100:
underlying goes down 2% to 98, eft goes up to 104
underlying goes back to 100 the next day, for a 2.0408 move
the eft goes down by 4.0816% to 99.7551
thus eft does not recover full value
assumes perfect tracking - but the buyer should know this risk
it's just the math of percentages.
leverage etfs are best on streaks not saw-tooth action
duh!

What Stories Aren't Being Told?

We are being setup for a huge fall in the markets as everything put in to makes things better fail. Most of the stimulus money so far has gone to the states to help bail them out especially as school started. But the layoffs of teachers is now unprecedented as stated have direverted funds to other 'more pressing' needs.

The sollar has essentially collapsed and even though, oil has not broken out above 75. Why? Because oil demand is falling. The dollar will rally and watch commodity prices fall. When?

Expect current rally to continue into Q3 reporting, then watch out as companies will again take every write-off they can in Q4.

Talk about liar loans [Alt-A], the real issue is liar valuation, where the banks now do not have to market assets to market, but to recovery.

When the big boys [GS] have sold into the public buying and have their shorts in hand, watch how fast the news will turn to doom and gloom from the happy days of recovery we have now.

Postal Service Set to Lead the Way in Deploying Electric Fleet

Stupid government again - CNG is certainly the right choice for such flleet vehicles with a home-base - even better: you spin-up an inertial flywheel with the CNG motor and use the more effeciient stored energy for all that stop-and-go.

First Solar Sell-Off Is Overdone

I guess about everything has been said. My position, as pointed out by others, is the limited downside for thinfilm costs of materials and production, whereas silicon has a long way to go as mass production plants [LDK] come online. The module packaging and installation area required are also negatives for thinfilm [less efficient per sf, thus requires more land/roof than silicon modules. Not to mention more glass, more aluminum, more supports, more wiring, more transportation costs, more, more, etc.

Solar Sector Makes Its Way Back into the Light

While oil prices have risen recently, the solar stocks have declined. The glut of oil is not reflected in the price - YET.

Solar stocks still face the reality of lack of enough financing and the removal of subsidies.

I agree on STP, but also CSIQ and YGE are the best indicators.
I disagree regarding FSLR as they are facing a floor in the cost curve for thinfilm whereas the wafer module makers continue to see cost reduction.

With oil at resistance, I would be careful of even STP breaking the trendline you show - today could be crucial, and so far looks to be a solar bounce. But the big drop in China [5% at worse, 2.6% on close] portends end of stimulus in China. The Baltic Dry Index continues to fall meaning there is much less shipping activity of goods into and out of China.

Our markets quitely gave up their gains yesterday. Expect a mild Bernanke bounce and we will see if the next wave of selling is met with buying - at some point it will not be once the little bit of money moving into mutual funds stops.

Chevy Volt: How It Stacks Up

you said:

"The reason the Volt could get the equivalent of 230 miles per gallon is that on many short trips, the gas engine wouldn't even be on."

if the engine is not on, the mpg would be infinite ..... but;

Before you jump on me, to determine the MPG of an EREV; first the car is driven from a full battery until it reaches charge-sustaining mode [engine on], then one more cycle is driven. If we use the highway schedule first from a full charge, the first 40 miles are electric covering the hiway course of 10.26 miles and continuing until the engine comes on to ready for the city course of 11.04 miles. If the Volt gets 50 MPG in charge sustaining mode, it will use .22 gallons of gas for that 11 miles. Thus 51 miles/.22 gallons = 231.8 MPG. Close to the GM quoted figure of 230mpg.

The real issue comes from Einstein - E=mc^2

Since there is no transmission, there is alway a direct relation to speed squared. Thus to sustain a faster speed over a given distance requires more energy [than if you covered it at a lower speed]. This is why the Volt is not good for long high speed trips. The real question is how fast you can go in charge sustaining mode, or even in charge draining mode - both with the engine running. Then produce a table for distances at various speeds so you can determine when you will be stranded.

What if you drain the battery below sustaining charge levels and continue to dirve? Of course you should be able to "idle" and recharge the battery as opposed to plugging it in - but that is real bad mpg! Like - zero.

Trina Solar: First Solar Won’t Be Low-Cost Leader for Long

As I have stated in prior posts - FSLR has 2 problems, cost reduction of raw materials and higher cost of installation.

As you note Si costs are going down and can continue. FSLR input costs have reached bottom and only efficiencies of production remain - and same production efficiencies are afforded to Si cell and module makers.

Soon installation costs will dominate - land [roof] area, support frames and module frames and glass not to mention transportation costs of more materials. Since thinfilm is less efficient, it requires more of all.

FSLR's competitve advantage is slipping away - it's just a matter of time.

What of CSIQ - it seems to have been only p-si module make to have posted real profits???????

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

The obvious problems with the banks have already happened. Now for the shockers - OREO's [other real estate owned] cannot be held forever as the upkeep [cutting the grass] and taxes [real estate] begin to take their toll. The banks 'hope' prices will recover, but the opposite is happening - prices are still falling and the assets are wasting [no warm bodies and propery climate control can deteriorate a house in a year as vermin and bugs take up residency]. And anyone who believes the commercial RE is not going to be a problem because everyone knows about it, is not living in the real world. Try to rollover a loan with a property needing repairs, half the tennants and the restdemanding lower rents - good luck.

BANKS SHOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO TRADE - GS will eventually get it's hat handed to it - calls for probes are mounting - the money they 'make' is stealing from society. Hiding behind 'providing liquidty' is total BS and disrupts markets.

Wal-Mart Could Give Solar Energy Tremendous Boost

It takes thin-film more roof area and mounting to get same power as poly-si. Poly-si prices are falling and thin-film chemicals are rising.

Poly-si technology has chance for effiicency increase and thin-film is limited, if at all.

Suntech’s Pluto Panel: It’s a Wiring Thing

you meant: 1366 has also replaced silver with copper.

Options Trader Weekend Update: Charts, Art and Market Manipulation

And how do the GS's .....