jbde's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/190552/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/177604-sunpower-trades-highlight-solar-s-slow-fade?source=feed#comment-801291 801291
Seems like free money to sell these puts. The market maker forced to buy the puts has only to sell the stock to 'protect' themselves.]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 08:57:26 -0500
Seems like free money to sell these puts. The market maker forced to buy the puts has only to sell the stock to 'protect' themselves.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177653-do-it-yourself-solar-at-lowes-via-akeena?source=feed#comment-801274 801274
Sorry, you got it backwards - panels produce direct current which must be inverted to alternating current.

So what is the cost per watt? I will bet the pricing is a very bad deal for the consumer - but those who just have to have it even though their electric utility is a much better deal, will buy - if only to be cool.]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 08:48:53 -0500
Sorry, you got it backwards - panels produce direct current which must be inverted to alternating current.

So what is the cost per watt? I will bet the pricing is a very bad deal for the consumer - but those who just have to have it even though their electric utility is a much better deal, will buy - if only to be cool.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175734-economic-recovery-commodity-charts-don-t-think-so?source=feed#comment-784132 784132
Two choices: run up stocks, run up commodities

But as the author points out - stockpiles are growing while speculators push prices up.

It will end badly - very badly - there will be rampant price deflation. Not just due to speculators all rushing for the door, but for every common person selling whatever they have to raise cash to purchase necessities. Now that's deflation - and it will come.]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 08:48:19 -0500
Two choices: run up stocks, run up commodities

But as the author points out - stockpiles are growing while speculators push prices up.

It will end badly - very badly - there will be rampant price deflation. Not just due to speculators all rushing for the door, but for every common person selling whatever they have to raise cash to purchase necessities. Now that's deflation - and it will come.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175496-is-dubai-s-default-a-black-swan-event?source=feed#comment-779426 779426
No - OUR DOLLARS.

The flow of wealth taken from the average person has been used unwisely. Not FOR the average person, but for the elite.

What we need is reality - $40 oil - no war premiums, no rapid up and down trading - good ol' boring oil prices without speculators.

When 7 FED members [and counting], plus Tim say there is no asset bubble - THERE IS AS ASSET BUBBLE. How big it is will be measured as to how low prices get as everyone scrambles for the door and the overhead abundance of sellers depresses prices for years.

Yes years. Deflation is here and the 're-inflation' trade of low interest rates is not working. Sure you may 'recover' price as risk is chased, but just try to sell a lot of something - like foreclosed and now deteriorating homes. Looks good on paper - but not in the real world.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 08:57:12 -0500
No - OUR DOLLARS.

The flow of wealth taken from the average person has been used unwisely. Not FOR the average person, but for the elite.

What we need is reality - $40 oil - no war premiums, no rapid up and down trading - good ol' boring oil prices without speculators.

When 7 FED members [and counting], plus Tim say there is no asset bubble - THERE IS AS ASSET BUBBLE. How big it is will be measured as to how low prices get as everyone scrambles for the door and the overhead abundance of sellers depresses prices for years.

Yes years. Deflation is here and the 're-inflation' trade of low interest rates is not working. Sure you may 'recover' price as risk is chased, but just try to sell a lot of something - like foreclosed and now deteriorating homes. Looks good on paper - but not in the real world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174179-10-reasons-to-believe-that-we-re-in-a-depression?source=feed#comment-768864 768864 Only then do you get the real numbers.

Most of what has been spent so far has 'preserved' government jobs - mostly at the state and local levels.

Who needs 3 city planners on the dole? Government layoffs are inevitable and tax payers will not stand for tax increases - even to support schools. Teacher layoffs are occurring and class sizes are increased for those who were lucky to keep their jobs.

Got your gun yet?]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:04:03 -0500 Only then do you get the real numbers.

Most of what has been spent so far has 'preserved' government jobs - mostly at the state and local levels.

Who needs 3 city planners on the dole? Government layoffs are inevitable and tax payers will not stand for tax increases - even to support schools. Teacher layoffs are occurring and class sizes are increased for those who were lucky to keep their jobs.

Got your gun yet?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174063-serious-questions-about-canadian-solar?source=feed#comment-767033 767033
For whatever reason CSIQ is performing and so is it's stock. You have to assume those who really know what is going on in the company and the industry approve.

Now let's talk TSL - the real winner!]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 08:53:27 -0500
For whatever reason CSIQ is performing and so is it's stock. You have to assume those who really know what is going on in the company and the industry approve.

Now let's talk TSL - the real winner!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174032-sunpower-clings-to-march-lows?source=feed#comment-767023 767023
Should have been in TSL or CSIQ where there are real growing eps.

As SPWRA has most efficient cells, that is not enough. You have to run a profitable business in a period of declining asp's. And when prices increase, the ones that have their act together already, will only get better.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 08:49:55 -0500
Should have been in TSL or CSIQ where there are real growing eps.

As SPWRA has most efficient cells, that is not enough. You have to run a profitable business in a period of declining asp's. And when prices increase, the ones that have their act together already, will only get better.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173921-whitney-gets-bearish-will-she-be-right-again?source=feed#comment-765205 765205
On FastMoney everyone is just so giddy about the market's continuing to rise.

I do not want to hear [after it breaks and falls] that 'we told you so'

Someone needs to tell it like it is - now! Too many 'faces' are in their ivory towers - trading on the perils of others.

Get out there and see what is really happening. More and more empty stores, too many houses for sale, too many vacant rentals - any panhandlers in your neighborhood?

It's easy to pick on poor Meredith, but at least she does not sugar coat what she thinks.

Sure the big get bigger as the small and middle business perish.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:12:39 -0500
On FastMoney everyone is just so giddy about the market's continuing to rise.

I do not want to hear [after it breaks and falls] that 'we told you so'

Someone needs to tell it like it is - now! Too many 'faces' are in their ivory towers - trading on the perils of others.

Get out there and see what is really happening. More and more empty stores, too many houses for sale, too many vacant rentals - any panhandlers in your neighborhood?

It's easy to pick on poor Meredith, but at least she does not sugar coat what she thinks.

Sure the big get bigger as the small and middle business perish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173684-meredith-whitney-i-haven-t-been-this-bearish-in-a-year?source=feed#comment-763577 763577
Observations first:

MW is certainly right that the banks are under-capitalized. Her need to comment on the market as being overbought - I excuse as a venting of her frustration of trumped-up GDP growth based on government spending while personal income is dropping. GDP should be reported as ex-government stimulus.

Check the two real numbers [no seasonal adjustments] we get - unemployment claims and tax receipts. Everything else is suspect. Does anyone think that the seasonal adjustments for temp help this holiday season makes any sense?

Watch the layoffs once the January sales are over. Watch the stores close as no-one is going to lease for 9 months waiting for the next 'profiy' season.

If the FED has to have at least 4 say [including the chairman and vice-chair] that we are NOT in an asset bubble - then we ARE in an asset bubble.

China cannot support 'internal' spending anymore and exports are not cutting it. A one-point rise in the DXY will bring on panic.

The ride has been great and when GS says thing are no longer good [after reversing their positions], the initial down move will be swift.

Now for the reality of what is to come:

Time to mark-to-market those mortgage and REO 'assets'
you cannot kick the can down the road forever.

The banks are really scared and know the day of reckoning is near - not from commercial [which of course will collapse many small banks], but good ol' residential. The Alt-A onslaught will dwarf sub-prime and will last into 2012.

At some point the dam breaks and the banks will be forced to dump the houses they are holding onto the market. The assets begin to physically deteriorate beyond what the pencil can hide. And then, it is too late.

Markets go up and markets go down - it's time for some down.

All said IMHO]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 09:29:31 -0500
Observations first:

MW is certainly right that the banks are under-capitalized. Her need to comment on the market as being overbought - I excuse as a venting of her frustration of trumped-up GDP growth based on government spending while personal income is dropping. GDP should be reported as ex-government stimulus.

Check the two real numbers [no seasonal adjustments] we get - unemployment claims and tax receipts. Everything else is suspect. Does anyone think that the seasonal adjustments for temp help this holiday season makes any sense?

Watch the layoffs once the January sales are over. Watch the stores close as no-one is going to lease for 9 months waiting for the next 'profiy' season.

If the FED has to have at least 4 say [including the chairman and vice-chair] that we are NOT in an asset bubble - then we ARE in an asset bubble.

China cannot support 'internal' spending anymore and exports are not cutting it. A one-point rise in the DXY will bring on panic.

The ride has been great and when GS says thing are no longer good [after reversing their positions], the initial down move will be swift.

Now for the reality of what is to come:

Time to mark-to-market those mortgage and REO 'assets'
you cannot kick the can down the road forever.

The banks are really scared and know the day of reckoning is near - not from commercial [which of course will collapse many small banks], but good ol' residential. The Alt-A onslaught will dwarf sub-prime and will last into 2012.

At some point the dam breaks and the banks will be forced to dump the houses they are holding onto the market. The assets begin to physically deteriorate beyond what the pencil can hide. And then, it is too late.

Markets go up and markets go down - it's time for some down.

All said IMHO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172797-the-global-oil-scam-50-times-bigger-than-madoff?source=feed#comment-757005 757005
The facts are:
There is plenty of oil production now
Iraq is about to come online in a big way with oilfield upgrades
There is record oil in storage
There is oil being 'parked' in barges

The results will be:
Price will correct when the commodity bubble bursts
After dropping into the 20's prices will recover to $50-60
All production costs [except oil sands] will be covered by this range
Oil producers will make a profit but cannot get price back up
[with margins cut, there will be quota cheating]

Why:
We are enterring a period of rampant defalation
Every commodity, finished good and trinket will be sold for cash]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:59:58 -0500
The facts are:
There is plenty of oil production now
Iraq is about to come online in a big way with oilfield upgrades
There is record oil in storage
There is oil being 'parked' in barges

The results will be:
Price will correct when the commodity bubble bursts
After dropping into the 20's prices will recover to $50-60
All production costs [except oil sands] will be covered by this range
Oil producers will make a profit but cannot get price back up
[with margins cut, there will be quota cheating]

Why:
We are enterring a period of rampant defalation
Every commodity, finished good and trinket will be sold for cash]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172528-blankfein-defends-goldman-is-flippant-with-facts?source=feed#comment-755201 755201 They make nothing, they help nobody.

They trade for themselves with government money.
Ask yourself - for every $ profit they make, who did they TAKE it from?
It's simply a transfer of wealth TO THEM.

Banks should not be permitted to trade for their OWN accounts.

Plain and simple.]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 09:24:48 -0500 They make nothing, they help nobody.

They trade for themselves with government money.
Ask yourself - for every $ profit they make, who did they TAKE it from?
It's simply a transfer of wealth TO THEM.

Banks should not be permitted to trade for their OWN accounts.

Plain and simple.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170851-earnings-season-the-car-is-shiny-but-look-under-the-hood?source=feed#comment-744144 744144
Reality is that businesses are scared. They would not have done so much cost cutting [mostly people] if they did see things getting worse - much worse. All discretionary purchases can be postponed if not dropped completely. And there is constant downsizing on necessities - lesser brands, quality and of course price.

We are entering a period of deflation that will be evident in the press over the winter. What will a person sell in order to pay for heat? And they will be forced to take what is offered. Used car prices enjoyed a bump, but just look at the markdowns in the weekly mags - unprecedented as the small guys clamor to sell something.

Manufacturers of consumer goods will fight for whatever business they can get - they will cut prices until they kill each other.

Just after the holidays, retail stores will close in mass and the commercial real estate crisis will be in full force.]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:28:06 -0500
Reality is that businesses are scared. They would not have done so much cost cutting [mostly people] if they did see things getting worse - much worse. All discretionary purchases can be postponed if not dropped completely. And there is constant downsizing on necessities - lesser brands, quality and of course price.

We are entering a period of deflation that will be evident in the press over the winter. What will a person sell in order to pay for heat? And they will be forced to take what is offered. Used car prices enjoyed a bump, but just look at the markdowns in the weekly mags - unprecedented as the small guys clamor to sell something.

Manufacturers of consumer goods will fight for whatever business they can get - they will cut prices until they kill each other.

Just after the holidays, retail stores will close in mass and the commercial real estate crisis will be in full force.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170743-bank-of-america-citigroup-jp-morgan-and-wells-fargo-stocking-up-on-liquidity?source=feed#comment-742290 742290
Confidence in the banks will wane to zero and we will see bank runs. Expect the government to test its new 'not too big to fail' rules by breaking up Citi. BofA can avoid this by spinning MER off.

We are in a period of deflation that will start to spiral downward. There are no more piggybanks for consumers; and when you have to by oil or gas to heat your house, you will sell anything you can for whatever you can get.

Instead of giving 'stimulus' money to municipalities, the money should have been spent on creating jobs to old fashion way - work programs! Bridges, roads, grid, solar, nukes, wind. How many urban planners do you need writing reports? Get rid of the waste. The bloated positions added over the boom years need to go - instead they keep them and axe the teachers.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:45:49 -0500
Confidence in the banks will wane to zero and we will see bank runs. Expect the government to test its new 'not too big to fail' rules by breaking up Citi. BofA can avoid this by spinning MER off.

We are in a period of deflation that will start to spiral downward. There are no more piggybanks for consumers; and when you have to by oil or gas to heat your house, you will sell anything you can for whatever you can get.

Instead of giving 'stimulus' money to municipalities, the money should have been spent on creating jobs to old fashion way - work programs! Bridges, roads, grid, solar, nukes, wind. How many urban planners do you need writing reports? Get rid of the waste. The bloated positions added over the boom years need to go - instead they keep them and axe the teachers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170295-airlines-some-costs-they-can-t-and-shouldn-t-cut?source=feed#comment-740120 740120
"Today, like most every day, just over 44,000 experienced pilots"
"Over the next 24 hours, these pilots will make over 13,500 take-offs"
"they will be in command of over 36,000 hours of flight time"

This implies 3.2 crew members per leg.
Even if each cockpit crew is 3 - pilot, co-pilot and flight engineer, this seems way wrong as on average crews fly more than one leg per day if each leg averages only 2.7 hours. [I generously assume the 36,000 of flight time is leg-time and not aggregate pilot flight hours as it is hard to imagine only .82 flight-hours per pilot per day - 36,000 hour flight time divided among 44,000 pilots]

If only considering pilots, no way 44,000 used, even if each crew only flies 1 leg => 2x13,500 = 27,000

Also, what is the average load factor per leg been over the years?
The trend to larger aircraft increases this average, thus more passenger hours would naturally mean cockpit wage dollars per seat-hour would drop if salaries were the same. Dollars per seat-hour could even be dropping over time even if pilot salaries are rising.

Clearly more data [trends of - pilot count, aircraft size, load factor] is needed to confirm that cockpit crew costs are falling when measured by dollars per passenger seat-hour.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:08:22 -0500
"Today, like most every day, just over 44,000 experienced pilots"
"Over the next 24 hours, these pilots will make over 13,500 take-offs"
"they will be in command of over 36,000 hours of flight time"

This implies 3.2 crew members per leg.
Even if each cockpit crew is 3 - pilot, co-pilot and flight engineer, this seems way wrong as on average crews fly more than one leg per day if each leg averages only 2.7 hours. [I generously assume the 36,000 of flight time is leg-time and not aggregate pilot flight hours as it is hard to imagine only .82 flight-hours per pilot per day - 36,000 hour flight time divided among 44,000 pilots]

If only considering pilots, no way 44,000 used, even if each crew only flies 1 leg => 2x13,500 = 27,000

Also, what is the average load factor per leg been over the years?
The trend to larger aircraft increases this average, thus more passenger hours would naturally mean cockpit wage dollars per seat-hour would drop if salaries were the same. Dollars per seat-hour could even be dropping over time even if pilot salaries are rising.

Clearly more data [trends of - pilot count, aircraft size, load factor] is needed to confirm that cockpit crew costs are falling when measured by dollars per passenger seat-hour.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164132-was-the-chicago-pmi-leaked?source=feed#comment-698509 698509 Anyone getting advance information on a traditional market moving report is a crook. GS probably pays a lot more for 15mins advance 'peak.'
This practice of making a buck on such a report prior to public disclosure should be stopped - period!]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:00:49 -0400 Anyone getting advance information on a traditional market moving report is a crook. GS probably pays a lot more for 15mins advance 'peak.'
This practice of making a buck on such a report prior to public disclosure should be stopped - period!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163613-short-etfs-time-to-buy-not-sell?source=feed#comment-693119 693119 for an ultra short starting with underlying nav/index and eft both starting at 100:
underlying goes down 2% to 98, eft goes up to 104
underlying goes back to 100 the next day, for a 2.0408 move
the eft goes down by 4.0816% to 99.7551
thus eft does not recover full value
assumes perfect tracking - but the buyer should know this risk
it's just the math of percentages.
leverage etfs are best on streaks not saw-tooth action
duh!]]> Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:21:44 -0400 for an ultra short starting with underlying nav/index and eft both starting at 100:
underlying goes down 2% to 98, eft goes up to 104
underlying goes back to 100 the next day, for a 2.0408 move
the eft goes down by 4.0816% to 99.7551
thus eft does not recover full value
assumes perfect tracking - but the buyer should know this risk
it's just the math of percentages.
leverage etfs are best on streaks not saw-tooth action
duh!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160878-what-stories-aren-t-being-told?source=feed#comment-672029 672029
The sollar has essentially collapsed and even though, oil has not broken out above 75. Why? Because oil demand is falling. The dollar will rally and watch commodity prices fall. When?

Expect current rally to continue into Q3 reporting, then watch out as companies will again take every write-off they can in Q4.

Talk about liar loans [Alt-A], the real issue is liar valuation, where the banks now do not have to market assets to market, but to recovery.

When the big boys [GS] have sold into the public buying and have their shorts in hand, watch how fast the news will turn to doom and gloom from the happy days of recovery we have now.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 10:42:24 -0400
The sollar has essentially collapsed and even though, oil has not broken out above 75. Why? Because oil demand is falling. The dollar will rally and watch commodity prices fall. When?

Expect current rally to continue into Q3 reporting, then watch out as companies will again take every write-off they can in Q4.

Talk about liar loans [Alt-A], the real issue is liar valuation, where the banks now do not have to market assets to market, but to recovery.

When the big boys [GS] have sold into the public buying and have their shorts in hand, watch how fast the news will turn to doom and gloom from the happy days of recovery we have now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159957-postal-service-set-to-lead-the-way-in-deploying-electric-fleet?source=feed#comment-661570 661570 Fri, 04 Sep 2009 09:14:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158398-first-solar-sell-off-is-overdone?source=feed#comment-648674 648674 Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:30:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157931-solar-sector-makes-its-way-back-into-the-light?source=feed#comment-644996 644996
Solar stocks still face the reality of lack of enough financing and the removal of subsidies.

I agree on STP, but also CSIQ and YGE are the best indicators.
I disagree regarding FSLR as they are facing a floor in the cost curve for thinfilm whereas the wafer module makers continue to see cost reduction.

With oil at resistance, I would be careful of even STP breaking the trendline you show - today could be crucial, and so far looks to be a solar bounce. But the big drop in China [5% at worse, 2.6% on close] portends end of stimulus in China. The Baltic Dry Index continues to fall meaning there is much less shipping activity of goods into and out of China.

Our markets quitely gave up their gains yesterday. Expect a mild Bernanke bounce and we will see if the next wave of selling is met with buying - at some point it will not be once the little bit of money moving into mutual funds stops.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:16:56 -0400
Solar stocks still face the reality of lack of enough financing and the removal of subsidies.

I agree on STP, but also CSIQ and YGE are the best indicators.
I disagree regarding FSLR as they are facing a floor in the cost curve for thinfilm whereas the wafer module makers continue to see cost reduction.

With oil at resistance, I would be careful of even STP breaking the trendline you show - today could be crucial, and so far looks to be a solar bounce. But the big drop in China [5% at worse, 2.6% on close] portends end of stimulus in China. The Baltic Dry Index continues to fall meaning there is much less shipping activity of goods into and out of China.

Our markets quitely gave up their gains yesterday. Expect a mild Bernanke bounce and we will see if the next wave of selling is met with buying - at some point it will not be once the little bit of money moving into mutual funds stops.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157661-chevy-volt-how-it-stacks-up?source=feed#comment-642920 642920
"The reason the Volt could get the equivalent of 230 miles per gallon is that on many short trips, the gas engine wouldn't even be on."

if the engine is not on, the mpg would be infinite ..... but;

Before you jump on me, to determine the MPG of an EREV; first the car is driven from a full battery until it reaches charge-sustaining mode [engine on], then one more cycle is driven. If we use the highway schedule first from a full charge, the first 40 miles are electric covering the hiway course of 10.26 miles and continuing until the engine comes on to ready for the city course of 11.04 miles. If the Volt gets 50 MPG in charge sustaining mode, it will use .22 gallons of gas for that 11 miles. Thus 51 miles/.22 gallons = 231.8 MPG. Close to the GM quoted figure of 230mpg.

The real issue comes from Einstein - E=mc^2

Since there is no transmission, there is alway a direct relation to speed squared. Thus to sustain a faster speed over a given distance requires more energy [than if you covered it at a lower speed]. This is why the Volt is not good for long high speed trips. The real question is how fast you can go in charge sustaining mode, or even in charge draining mode - both with the engine running. Then produce a table for distances at various speeds so you can determine when you will be stranded.

What if you drain the battery below sustaining charge levels and continue to dirve? Of course you should be able to "idle" and recharge the battery as opposed to plugging it in - but that is real bad mpg! Like - zero.]]> Mon, 24 Aug 2009 07:59:52 -0400
"The reason the Volt could get the equivalent of 230 miles per gallon is that on many short trips, the gas engine wouldn't even be on."

if the engine is not on, the mpg would be infinite ..... but;

Before you jump on me, to determine the MPG of an EREV; first the car is driven from a full battery until it reaches charge-sustaining mode [engine on], then one more cycle is driven. If we use the highway schedule first from a full charge, the first 40 miles are electric covering the hiway course of 10.26 miles and continuing until the engine comes on to ready for the city course of 11.04 miles. If the Volt gets 50 MPG in charge sustaining mode, it will use .22 gallons of gas for that 11 miles. Thus 51 miles/.22 gallons = 231.8 MPG. Close to the GM quoted figure of 230mpg.

The real issue comes from Einstein - E=mc^2

Since there is no transmission, there is alway a direct relation to speed squared. Thus to sustain a faster speed over a given distance requires more energy [than if you covered it at a lower speed]. This is why the Volt is not good for long high speed trips. The real question is how fast you can go in charge sustaining mode, or even in charge draining mode - both with the engine running. Then produce a table for distances at various speeds so you can determine when you will be stranded.

What if you drain the battery below sustaining charge levels and continue to dirve? Of course you should be able to "idle" and recharge the battery as opposed to plugging it in - but that is real bad mpg! Like - zero.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157009-trina-solar-first-solar-wont-be-low-cost-leader-for-long?source=feed#comment-636189 636189
As you note Si costs are going down and can continue. FSLR input costs have reached bottom and only efficiencies of production remain - and same production efficiencies are afforded to Si cell and module makers.

Soon installation costs will dominate - land [roof] area, support frames and module frames and glass not to mention transportation costs of more materials. Since thinfilm is less efficient, it requires more of all.

FSLR's competitve advantage is slipping away - it's just a matter of time.

What of CSIQ - it seems to have been only p-si module make to have posted real profits???????]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 08:43:51 -0400
As you note Si costs are going down and can continue. FSLR input costs have reached bottom and only efficiencies of production remain - and same production efficiencies are afforded to Si cell and module makers.

Soon installation costs will dominate - land [roof] area, support frames and module frames and glass not to mention transportation costs of more materials. Since thinfilm is less efficient, it requires more of all.

FSLR's competitve advantage is slipping away - it's just a matter of time.

What of CSIQ - it seems to have been only p-si module make to have posted real profits???????]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153555-five-reasons-the-market-could-crash-this-fall?source=feed#comment-616018 616018
BANKS SHOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO TRADE - GS will eventually get it's hat handed to it - calls for probes are mounting - the money they 'make' is stealing from society. Hiding behind 'providing liquidty' is total BS and disrupts markets.
]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 09:20:27 -0400
BANKS SHOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO TRADE - GS will eventually get it's hat handed to it - calls for probes are mounting - the money they 'make' is stealing from society. Hiding behind 'providing liquidty' is total BS and disrupts markets.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152446-wal-mart-could-give-solar-energy-tremendous-boost?source=feed#comment-607776 607776
Poly-si technology has chance for effiicency increase and thin-film is limited, if at all.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 09:30:34 -0400
Poly-si technology has chance for effiicency increase and thin-film is limited, if at all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150422-suntechs-pluto-panel-its-a-wiring-thing?source=feed#comment-599253 599253 you meant: 1366 has also replaced silver with copper.]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 09:28:40 -0400 you meant: 1366 has also replaced silver with copper.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149567-options-trader-weekend-update-charts-art-and-market-manipulation?source=feed#comment-593647 593647 Sun, 19 Jul 2009 09:34:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149567-options-trader-weekend-update-charts-art-and-market-manipulation?source=feed#comment-593646 593646
The Roubini thing pissed me off they way it was reported. Roubini did not come on until Fast Money. Cramer and Kudlow taped promotions and content still touted the mis-information. So much for 6-sigma and the ISO-zero CNBC has.

But money is made when things move. The tip-off was when everyone was noticing and mentioning the S&P h&s pattern - we were warned the nacent shorts were going to get pounded.

Now watch the fall - about Wed after the rollover calls are written to the suckers on Mon and Tue. Watch oil stocks plummet - they have only recovered 50% or so.]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 09:33:03 -0400
The Roubini thing pissed me off they way it was reported. Roubini did not come on until Fast Money. Cramer and Kudlow taped promotions and content still touted the mis-information. So much for 6-sigma and the ISO-zero CNBC has.

But money is made when things move. The tip-off was when everyone was noticing and mentioning the S&P h&s pattern - we were warned the nacent shorts were going to get pounded.

Now watch the fall - about Wed after the rollover calls are written to the suckers on Mon and Tue. Watch oil stocks plummet - they have only recovered 50% or so.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147812-will-pickens-scrapped-project-slow-wind-energy-momentum?source=feed#comment-580476 580476 I guess they didn't get the memo about how supporting the integration of renewable energy is probably one of the most patriotic things you can do.

What a stupid thing to say - it's all about economics. The private sector will not invest unless there is a return. The government does need to encourage infrastructure by facilitiating power lines to the wind and sun belts. Subsidies and low interest loans will be required for a powerline operator to make such an investment.

Realitiy is that projects will develop closer to usage - solar and and wind, where the addative load on exisitng transmission lines is minimal.

Solar is still better as it can be 'hidden' on roof tops and the basic material [sand] gets cheaper to process into wafers. Thin film cannot compete with the potential decline in poly-si costs - with all in the foodchain being profitable. It will take years to build the capacity to make a dent in electric demand, but it's on the way.]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:12:42 -0400 I guess they didn't get the memo about how supporting the integration of renewable energy is probably one of the most patriotic things you can do.

What a stupid thing to say - it's all about economics. The private sector will not invest unless there is a return. The government does need to encourage infrastructure by facilitiating power lines to the wind and sun belts. Subsidies and low interest loans will be required for a powerline operator to make such an investment.

Realitiy is that projects will develop closer to usage - solar and and wind, where the addative load on exisitng transmission lines is minimal.

Solar is still better as it can be 'hidden' on roof tops and the basic material [sand] gets cheaper to process into wafers. Thin film cannot compete with the potential decline in poly-si costs - with all in the foodchain being profitable. It will take years to build the capacity to make a dent in electric demand, but it's on the way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143607-the-high-cost-of-carry-trades-and-their-impacts-on-the-markets?source=feed#comment-550244 550244 Broker fee?

I thought the only true cost was the liability to pay dividends to the new 'owner' who buys the shorter's sell.

The loaner gives up voting rights as they go to the new 'owner' of the borrowed stock sold by the shorter. That's no cost.]]> Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:34:12 -0400 Broker fee?

I thought the only true cost was the liability to pay dividends to the new 'owner' who buys the shorter's sell.

The loaner gives up voting rights as they go to the new 'owner' of the borrowed stock sold by the shorter. That's no cost.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143678-are-clouds-over-the-solar-industry-dissipating?source=feed#comment-550230 550230 Spot prices are just that - SPOT - suspect price others tout
Cannot buy in volume at spot prices.
When demand comes back and 'spot' prices jump, will that be quoted as indication of wildly high selling prices again?

Low for solar stocks may well have been seen - 'smart' money starts accummulating positions early - that seems to be now. Shorts got squeezed and 'real' buyers should be back in in force on next up move. LDK for example. also JASO, CSIQ.

LDK going into power projects with Q-Cells is certainly an interesting move - create your own demand! Buy around 10 for easy 50% move to above recent highs.]]> Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:27:13 -0400 Spot prices are just that - SPOT - suspect price others tout
Cannot buy in volume at spot prices.
When demand comes back and 'spot' prices jump, will that be quoted as indication of wildly high selling prices again?

Low for solar stocks may well have been seen - 'smart' money starts accummulating positions early - that seems to be now. Shorts got squeezed and 'real' buyers should be back in in force on next up move. LDK for example. also JASO, CSIQ.

LDK going into power projects with Q-Cells is certainly an interesting move - create your own demand! Buy around 10 for easy 50% move to above recent highs.]]>