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jbde

jbde
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  • Not All Solar Stocks Are Created Equal [View article]
    Eric,
    Does SPWRA buy wafers from LDK? I believe their utility scale projects also require that they buy modules from other module manufacturers.

    Yes, their bifacial wafers are the industry leader [overall conversion efficiency per unit of gross module front face area due to backside eteching of conductors and ability to convert reflected irradiation on the backside]

    Re LDK: If they are able to produce polySi at costs of $26/kg versus contract prices over $200/kg - doesn't one of two things or both happen?
    LDK's margins skyrocket, LDK can offer wafers at lowers prices.

    Thus module makers buying cheaper wafers from LDK have lower costs, thus lower module prices should follow.

    There appears to be more downside in module material costs this way than FSLR can achieve. Thus wafers may become the preferred PV base and thinfilm will lose its current cost advantage !?!?!?!?
    Jan 22 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LDK Solar Lowers Sales Outlook, Delays Factory Plan [View article]
    "Delays Factory Plan" Please point out where LDK said anything about delaying anything! This inflamatory headline serves no purpose.

    They are doing eveything they can to get small plant running efficiently and they clearly state the much larger 2nd plant is on schedule. Not a delayed schedule.
    Jan 7 08:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Calculated Risks Possibly Worth Taking [View article]
    SHinthecity - should SH get some fresh air in the country!

    LDK does not make solar cells, just wafers. One of their largest, if not their largest customer is SPWRA which makes the highest efficiency bifacial cells and is a power plant scale integrator also with a huge business in placing modules on warehouse and bib-box store rooftops.

    The 'glut' of uninstalled modules will quickly be snapped-up by the large scale integrators - they are already pouncing! Some module makers are even buying competitors' products to meet commitments and to contract for more business.

    LDK's 'rolling' pay-to-play contracts are gold: you have to take your order or loose your downpayment and your place in the queue for more.
    In fact you pay full price on delivery and roll that downpayment for your next extension year.

    I concur with the postive LDK analysis [hold stock and calls].

    You have to look carefully at what the real float is. Just as many sites miss the fact the SOLF, for example, reports in RMB thus sites still give misleading PE ratios.
    Dec 28 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Dying Silicon Valley Companies [View article]
    Whether a company is going to be around or not is not the point. The questions is: will be it worth investing in?

    They all survive INTC needs to have AMD around.
    YHOO is still a dominant portal - just needs monetization.
    JAVA has underlying contracts and JAVA language
    PALM is still innovative and has a following.

    It's all kind of like saying AAPL is dying because MAC's cannot compete with the commodity nature of PC's. The 'mystique' of AAPL products that adds cache value cannot weather the storm. But the iPhone is another story - real functionality and innovation. RIMM benefits from flattering AAPL's [immitation] and moving into consumer space. These devices will morph into 'portable computers' and will jump in demand when Wi-MAX [or similar] networks dramatically add bandwidth with everything on one network - the internet. Would anyone be sorry if QCOM went away? Try CLWR [CLWRD] instead. With backers like INTC and CSCO, it may take some time, but it will happen.
    Dec 22 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternative Energy Storage Needs to Take Baby Steps Before It Can Run [View article]
    You need to add the WEIGHT, VOLUME and RECHARGE-TIME of the batterires to your table.

    If new technologies reduce these, they are a factor in how large/heavy the vehicle is, thus an effect on the amount of energy to move it. Of course recharge time is a major concern and tus can rule out a cheaper alternative as impractical.

    Is this the real reasons for new technologies? Or can they be dispelled by showing the cheaper alternatives per your table are in fact cheaper dispite weight, volume and recharge-time?
    Dec 22 08:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks Rebounding, Is It Time to Buy? [View article]
    LDK - SPWRA is their largest customer and produces bifacial cells and modules. Wafers will still be around and produce much more power in intense sunlight than amorphous thinfilm. Thinfilm is good for typically cloudy areas as it is good at converting diffuse light.
    Dec 18 08:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG's Bold Move and Why I'm Shorting the Long Bond [View article]
    Bashing companies for recognizing their top talent based on industry standards is ludicrous. Just because AIG is getting public funds does not mean they should not pay their personnel and reps as is custom. So you would rahter see them lose their top producres to competitors and insure that the public does not get its money back?????

    Perhaps you should be a congressman - they seem excellent at grandstanding petty things - even the use of corporate jets. CEO's time is valuable; and, flexibility and the use of a mobile working environment is just and proper.
    Dec 1 08:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Smoking Gun of the Credit Crisis: FICO [View article]
    And now FICO's are the problem. Everyone is now on the 'tightening of lending rules' bandwagon. Thus lenders immediately limit the market of buyers.
    Second, as more and more people have problems, the avergae scores are dropping.
    At some point creditors [sellers] will have to lower credit standards or the markets for houses, cars, white-goods and furniture will continue to shrink. Of course they can lower prices. Not just offer lower priced options, but lower prices on the same item - costs are dropping.

    And what about the car pirces? House prices come down, commodity prices come down - even food us dropping as shipping costs are lower.

    But not those car prices. Discounting is not lowering. When someone actually lowers prices on an established model instead of giving rebates, they will set the new trend as telling it like it is. Peopl will flock to the truth-teller.

    As for US legacy employment costs, the unions have caused a wage bubble - no forklift operator should be getting $103K. No person who attaches part A to part B should be getting a 73K package.

    There is only one solution - you have to get rid of the union contracts and BR is the only way.
    The government then has to do two things - guarantee car warrantees and underwrite the mortgages of the autoworkers who have bought based on their inflated wages and will require mortgage assistance,

    This is the cheapest way out! Otherwise, they come back to the trough.
    Nov 21 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Companies Overseas: Where the Sun Don't Shine No More [View article]
    Sales drops do not seem to be due to demand, but currency.
    Sure some project will be delayed due to financing.
    No mandates or incnetives are being pulled.

    In any case, y-o-y revenues will be up dramatically.
    LDK is an outright gift at 10
    Find me another industry growing faster and we will talk about it!

    Look at the recent LDK/BP deal and now today's JASO/BP deal.
    BP is a quality customer and making a true commitment to solar.

    Duke Power wants to put modules on customers' roofs. Why?
    Can justify proximity to user mitigating losses during transmission.
    Nov 21 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Guess Which Retail Items Are Selling Best and Worst? [View article]
    Too general to be news-worthy

    Why can't we get item or supplier info on actual sales?
    Someone needs to be watching this closely with instore data collectors!

    Unless, of course, you can tap the companies' register tapes being beamed to headquarters.
    Nov 18 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Chinese Solar Stocks Under Threat from Pollution [View article]
    All the more reason to convert to solar and reverse the trend. They have cheap labor and can solve their own problem. Anyone who thinks solar is going away is a fool.

    As for stocks, people panic and prices get crunched - start scaling in, at the first hint of growth watch oil prices soar and all will be right - again.
    Nov 18 08:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar: About to Be Eclipsed? [View article]
    CSIQ is vertically integrated and has very low margins. What effect will there be if there are in fact lower ASP's in 2009. Such skinny margins could lead to losses real quick. Right or not?

    I hold [and daytrade] LDK that was just upgraded. As a supplier of wafers and soon to be one [if not the] lowest cost producers, they are much better off. c-Si will be with us for a long time, and as wafer production costs drop, better prices can be had by module makers.

    But can CSIQ still compete by making its own wafers?
    Nov 14 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Honeymoon Is Over: Gauging the Market with an Obama Presidency [View article]
    C.S.- what about SunPower, they use c-Si and in huge volume - their kicker in bifacial [ability to use backlighting - reflected or diffuse]. They achieve this by photolythography [CY - as in etching circuits] to apply BOTH + and - pickups on the backside. Since the metal is very narrow, the exposed Si enables the additional PV conversion. This is all opposed to other wafer users who place one pickup on the face of the wafer and the other on the back. SPWRA is a long time player in PV and well fixed in CA with commercial and utility scale customers. The CA defeat was for an extension, thus doe not effect mandatesfor the near future [2012]. Isn't LDK a bif supplier to SPWRA?
    Nov 7 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Reasons to Expect a Solar Boom [View article]
    borisb - what facts can you cite? If you make a statment at least have some facts to go with it, otherwise it is useless [this is a fact in itself].

    European [and now even US and China] mandates for renewable energy are real and large utilities have no problem with funding projects.

    www.getsolar.com/blog/.../

    www.spacemart.com/repo...

    www.matternetwork.com/...
    Nov 5 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Stocks to Research for the Market Rebound [View article]
    Hey David, since LDK and CSIQ are 2 of your disclosed holdings - perhaps you should know its silicon not silicone.

    " UMG polysilicone solar (a much cheaper alternative to multicrystalline solar). "

    UMG is simpy the purity of the raw product - whether mono- or multi- crystalline. It's less pure, thus cheaper, than solar grade silicon. Mono- or multi- depends on how the ingot is produced. Mono is produced by growing from a seed crystal, multi is produced by solidifying molten silicon.
    Oct 14 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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