BlackBerry's Gross Margins And Z10 Shipments Support Bullish Case [View article]
Break even is an improvement as there was a net operating loss in Q4'12 and the 'profit' was due to tax refund/adjustment.
Expect them to make a net positive operating profit as I believe they are being conservative. They certainly can 'make it happen' by not doing as much advertising. Personally, I think the advertising is not needed.
Word-of-mouth and peer-pressure:
Here's the best thing that could happen: the Z10 becomes the new cool device. After all, few people have them and the quick-to-move are tired of iOS and Android less-than-smart phones.
How many new usefully apps can be created for iOS and Android? Developers are being 'urged' by BBRY for 're-creating' the best apps to run on BB10 devices and the influence of demand from iOS and Android defectors will only help the cause.
An Explanation For BlackBerry's Short Interest Spike [View article]
As a condition of 'street shares' borrowed shares' voting rights transfer to the buyer of the shares borrowed and shorted. You cannot 'manufacture' votes.
Dividends work differently - the short shares are charged the dividend and it is given to the person whose shares were borrowed - the company of course paying all other shares including those bought by longs who bought shorted shares.
Why Blackberry's 3 Million Subscriber Loss May Actually Be Good News [View article]
Be careful when you use the word 'subscriber' with BB as it could mean carrier subs or service subs.
I believe the subs lost were carrier subs as some portion of the 'loyal' base wanted to try a competing device and thus dropped off as a BB carrier sub.
As to those waiting to go the other way, I agree that there is actually pent-up demand of those disenchanted with iOS and Android 'toys' and are in fact waiting for the new BB10 devices. It may become 'fashionable' to say "I have a Blackberry" again as you will set yourself away form the crowd with the cache of owning a real smart smartphone.
Thus we will see a surge in carrier subscribers in Q1. Also we should see a surge in service subs as the service is now 'accepting' iOS and Android devices to enjoy secure communications.
If the service becomes device agnostic, then the relevance is the device itself. The BB10 platform is far superior as a computing device as well as in separating play from work with the benefits of true multi-tasking.
It will not be long before smartphones will be doing computation such as spreadsheets and word processing - while cumbersome on such a small device, some will still see it better than lugging a full feature laptop. Also expect the new B10 tablet to definitely have such 'workplace' capabilities. The B10 must be more than a traditional tablet, and even approaching the WinPro PC tablet.
Countdown To Zero Hour For BlackBerry Earnings [View article]
And here we have it - 'substantial' cash - same as last qtr. Cash speaks for itself as it takes into consideration all expenses of the company for the launch - so far.
Countdown To Zero Hour For BlackBerry Earnings [View article]
I do not consider going from 2.1B to 2.2B as 'substantial' therefore I must say that I do consider 25% substantial, so my number would be on the order of 2.6B.
The term 'subscribers' is tossed around lightly - there are two distinct camps for BBRY - carrier subs and service subs. Based on the early Z10 sales results saying '50% are switching from iOS and Android,' one would expect a healthy add to carrier subscribers. Service adds could also be interesting as many companies have probably tried allowing iOS and Android devices where they should have never slacked on security. Given that BBRY is finally showing it is a going concern, more should come back to BBRY. Even with BES being offered to iOS and Android devices, all things now equal, I would want to make sure my secure device uses fully integrated software.
BlackBerry: Are You Ready For This? [View article]
The strongest show of confidence by management would be a stock buy-back - spend a billion - or at least say you will.
By now they know how things are going; and, how better to express it. If things ARE going well actions WILL speak louder than words.
Despite what the company will say about sales and service subscribers, it will all be taken negatively as 'falling short of expectations' since the bear voice is strong.
As to doubling or better - this is easy IF the growth curve is there as the anticipation can cause the stock to achieve a level which is commensurate with where earnings would be expected to be a couple of years down the road.
Also the shorts can easily be squeezed if the longs stand fast. We saw what can happen as it did with VW.
So announce a buyback - even if you do not go through with all of it. Putting the stock back on the map is the best PR and instills confidence in the company's longevity thus inducing more sales.
The best defense is truly a strong offense and the 'new' company needs to demonstrate that it is not the 'old' company.
BlackBerry Q4 2013 Earnings Preview: The Shorts Could Be Squeezed [View article]
Fuzzy math?
Since this is Q4 being reported, the eps/rev numbers for the 1st three quarters are known. So the difference between the low Q4 and low F13 and the difference between the high Q4 and high F13 should the same - the prior 3 quarters. Same for revenue too. [Unless someone gave a Q4 figure without a F13 figure. But the F13 would be implied anyway so why wouldn't they?]
EPS: low diff is -1.17 and high diff is -.72 Revs: low diff is 8.0 and high diff is 8.4
BlackBerry Q4 2013 Earnings Preview: The Shorts Could Be Squeezed [View article]
Okay when are earnings to be released - before/after market hours? Friday is a holiday Before makes it VERY interesting After means plenty of time for discussion before Monday
At some point the 'market' wakes up on BBRY - that point may be the earnings - provided the company provides details on sales. All they have to do it confirm the online sales.
Management has already stated that the US registrations are in concert with Canada - of course meaning prorated to population. That's huge.
What it takes then is institutional buying as they 'see' a quick double or better as the stock prices to a new level.
Given the huge short position, momentum 'investors' could pile on absorbing all shares offered for sale and put on a short squeeze. Perhaps not like what happened to VW, but something close.
What if the company, flush with cash and handset sales momentum, decides to mention a stock buyback? Something for the shorts to fear, even just the chatter by the momentum crowd would make fulfill the prophecy.
I simply do not understand why anyone would want to risk being short. Are the hoping a bad report on the past quarter will scare the longs?
I am long calls and advocate buying in the money calls to force market makers to hedge by buying the stock. Let them do the heavy lifting.
BlackBerry's Gross Margins And Z10 Shipments Support Bullish Case [View article]
Expect them to make a net positive operating profit as I believe they are being conservative. They certainly can 'make it happen' by not doing as much advertising. Personally, I think the advertising is not needed.
Word-of-mouth and peer-pressure:
Here's the best thing that could happen: the Z10 becomes the new cool device. After all, few people have them and the quick-to-move are tired of iOS and Android less-than-smart phones.
How many new usefully apps can be created for iOS and Android? Developers are being 'urged' by BBRY for 're-creating' the best apps to run on BB10 devices and the influence of demand from iOS and Android defectors will only help the cause.
An Explanation For BlackBerry's Short Interest Spike [View article]
You cannot 'manufacture' votes.
Dividends work differently - the short shares are charged the dividend and it is given to the person whose shares were borrowed - the company of course paying all other shares including those bought by longs who bought shorted shares.
BlackBerry: The Next Catalyst [View article]
BBRY still makes the same profit if Wal-Mart or its carrier partners want to 'create' a lower entry price.
I am all for mass-marketing - why not?
Why Blackberry's 3 Million Subscriber Loss May Actually Be Good News [View article]
I believe the subs lost were carrier subs as some portion of the 'loyal' base wanted to try a competing device and thus dropped off as a BB carrier sub.
As to those waiting to go the other way, I agree that there is actually pent-up demand of those disenchanted with iOS and Android 'toys' and are in fact waiting for the new BB10 devices. It may become 'fashionable' to say "I have a Blackberry" again as you will set yourself away form the crowd with the cache of owning a real smart smartphone.
Thus we will see a surge in carrier subscribers in Q1.
Also we should see a surge in service subs as the service is now 'accepting' iOS and Android devices to enjoy secure communications.
If the service becomes device agnostic, then the relevance is the device itself. The BB10 platform is far superior as a computing device as well as in separating play from work with the benefits of true multi-tasking.
It will not be long before smartphones will be doing computation such as spreadsheets and word processing - while cumbersome on such a small device, some will still see it better than lugging a full feature laptop. Also expect the new B10 tablet to definitely have such 'workplace' capabilities. The B10 must be more than a traditional tablet, and even approaching the WinPro PC tablet.
Countdown To Zero Hour For BlackBerry Earnings [View article]
Cash speaks for itself as it takes into consideration all expenses of the company for the launch - so far.
BlackBerry: Are You Ready For This? [View article]
Certainly I have a clue: you in the kitchen with the lead pipe.
Why wouldn't they - what good is too much cash if everything is doing GREAT.
It makes a statement that the company is back.
Best PR they could muster as it proves that they are here to stay.
Certainly it is a long shot, but if cash is growing, there is no risk as the launches paid for themselves.
Countdown To Zero Hour For BlackBerry Earnings [View article]
The term 'subscribers' is tossed around lightly - there are two distinct camps for BBRY - carrier subs and service subs.
Based on the early Z10 sales results saying '50% are switching from iOS and Android,' one would expect a healthy add to carrier subscribers. Service adds could also be interesting as many companies have probably tried allowing iOS and Android devices where they should have never slacked on security. Given that BBRY is finally showing it is a going concern, more should come back to BBRY. Even with BES being offered to iOS and Android devices, all things now equal, I would want to make sure my secure device uses fully integrated software.
BlackBerry: Are You Ready For This? [View article]
By now they know how things are going; and, how better to express it. If things ARE going well actions WILL speak louder than words.
Despite what the company will say about sales and service subscribers, it will all be taken negatively as 'falling short of expectations' since the bear voice is strong.
As to doubling or better - this is easy IF the growth curve is there as the anticipation can cause the stock to achieve a level which is commensurate with where earnings would be expected to be a couple of years down the road.
Also the shorts can easily be squeezed if the longs stand fast. We saw what can happen as it did with VW.
So announce a buyback - even if you do not go through with all of it. Putting the stock back on the map is the best PR and instills confidence in the company's longevity thus inducing more sales.
The best defense is truly a strong offense and the 'new' company needs to demonstrate that it is not the 'old' company.
BlackBerry Z10 - No Zeros For Indonesia [View article]
BlackBerry Z10 - No Zeros For Indonesia [View article]
How many in Indonesia use Blackberry secure services - as a percentage of users.
Any idea or a guess?
Or are the phones seen as technically better?
Or do users prefer the keyboard?
Basically, why the high percentage of users?
BlackBerry Q4 2013 Earnings Preview: The Shorts Could Be Squeezed [View article]
Since this is Q4 being reported, the eps/rev numbers for the 1st three quarters are known.
So the difference between the low Q4 and low F13 and the difference between the high Q4 and high F13 should the same - the prior 3 quarters.
Same for revenue too.
[Unless someone gave a Q4 figure without a F13 figure.
But the F13 would be implied anyway so why wouldn't they?]
EPS: low diff is -1.17 and high diff is -.72
Revs: low diff is 8.0 and high diff is 8.4
Please explain .....
BlackBerry Q4 2013 Earnings Preview: The Shorts Could Be Squeezed [View article]
http://bit.ly/YkLkOs
BlackBerry Q4 2013 Earnings Preview: The Shorts Could Be Squeezed [View article]
Friday is a holiday
Before makes it VERY interesting
After means plenty of time for discussion before Monday
BlackBerry Bottoms Up, Bottoms In [View article]
All they have to do it confirm the online sales.
Management has already stated that the US registrations are in concert with Canada - of course meaning prorated to population.
That's huge.
What it takes then is institutional buying as they 'see' a quick double or better as the stock prices to a new level.
Given the huge short position, momentum 'investors' could pile on absorbing all shares offered for sale and put on a short squeeze. Perhaps not like what happened to VW, but something close.
What if the company, flush with cash and handset sales momentum, decides to mention a stock buyback? Something for the shorts to fear, even just the chatter by the momentum crowd would make fulfill the prophecy.
I simply do not understand why anyone would want to risk being short. Are the hoping a bad report on the past quarter will scare the longs?
I am long calls and advocate buying in the money calls to force market makers to hedge by buying the stock. Let them do the heavy lifting.
Your Earnings Season Preview: BlackBerry [View article]
Mr. "XY" needs some "Z" to become 3-dimensional.
Then he should get a dose of "Q" and should know where to put it.