jbde

Is Dubai's Default a Black Swan Event?

apppro said: "That entire area was a waste of Arab oil dollars"

No - OUR DOLLARS.

The flow of wealth taken from the average person has been used unwisely. Not FOR the average person, but for the elite.

What we need is reality - $40 oil - no war premiums, no rapid up and down trading - good ol' boring oil prices without speculators.

When 7 FED members [and counting], plus Tim say there is no asset bubble - THERE IS AS ASSET BUBBLE. How big it is will be measured as to how low prices get as everyone scrambles for the door and the overhead abundance of sellers depresses prices for years.

Yes years. Deflation is here and the 're-inflation' trade of low interest rates is not working. Sure you may 'recover' price as risk is chased, but just try to sell a lot of something - like foreclosed and now deteriorating homes. Looks good on paper - but not in the real world.

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

GDP should be reported ex-stimulus.
Only then do you get the real numbers.

Most of what has been spent so far has 'preserved' government jobs - mostly at the state and local levels.

Who needs 3 city planners on the dole? Government layoffs are inevitable and tax payers will not stand for tax increases - even to support schools. Teacher layoffs are occurring and class sizes are increased for those who were lucky to keep their jobs.

Got your gun yet?

Whitney Gets Bearish: Will She Be Right Again?

Guy,

On FastMoney everyone is just so giddy about the market's continuing to rise.

I do not want to hear [after it breaks and falls] that 'we told you so'

Someone needs to tell it like it is - now! Too many 'faces' are in their ivory towers - trading on the perils of others.

Get out there and see what is really happening. More and more empty stores, too many houses for sale, too many vacant rentals - any panhandlers in your neighborhood?

It's easy to pick on poor Meredith, but at least she does not sugar coat what she thinks.

Sure the big get bigger as the small and middle business perish.

Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo Stocking Up on Liquidity

The large banks are preparing for the day of reckoning [wrecking]. They are hording liquidity because they know what is about to happen. They are hiding the losses and when they are forced to mark to market [by liquidating housing and commercial assets], the losses will pour.

Confidence in the banks will wane to zero and we will see bank runs. Expect the government to test its new 'not too big to fail' rules by breaking up Citi. BofA can avoid this by spinning MER off.

We are in a period of deflation that will start to spiral downward. There are no more piggybanks for consumers; and when you have to by oil or gas to heat your house, you will sell anything you can for whatever you can get.

Instead of giving 'stimulus' money to municipalities, the money should have been spent on creating jobs to old fashion way - work programs! Bridges, roads, grid, solar, nukes, wind. How many urban planners do you need writing reports? Get rid of the waste. The bloated positions added over the boom years need to go - instead they keep them and axe the teachers.

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

The obvious problems with the banks have already happened. Now for the shockers - OREO's [other real estate owned] cannot be held forever as the upkeep [cutting the grass] and taxes [real estate] begin to take their toll. The banks 'hope' prices will recover, but the opposite is happening - prices are still falling and the assets are wasting [no warm bodies and propery climate control can deteriorate a house in a year as vermin and bugs take up residency]. And anyone who believes the commercial RE is not going to be a problem because everyone knows about it, is not living in the real world. Try to rollover a loan with a property needing repairs, half the tennants and the restdemanding lower rents - good luck.

BANKS SHOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO TRADE - GS will eventually get it's hat handed to it - calls for probes are mounting - the money they 'make' is stealing from society. Hiding behind 'providing liquidty' is total BS and disrupts markets.