jbde

Guess Which Retail Items Are Selling Best and Worst?

Too general to be news-worthy

Why can't we get item or supplier info on actual sales?
Someone needs to be watching this closely with instore data collectors!

Unless, of course, you can tap the companies' register tapes being beamed to headquarters.

Earnings Preview: Crocs

Alll you need to do is watch the change in the short position to be reported in 2 weeks. If the shorts covered, then they think they got all they could out of it. Risk to the shorts is, that despite the core products, the new products in shoes and apparel are selling. The features of support, comfort and odor resistance are compelling still. Watch for Crox to license its Croslite to other shoe manufacturers - a whole new game. It can also be woven as fabric - into armpits of clothing for example.

Infamous Anniversary - Cramer's Stop Trading! (8/1/08)

Will Cramer fall on his sword? One year from now, will he admit he got it wrong? That he knew nothing, that he had no idea!

SBUX just sells over-priced coffee. Over-priced was a fad that has faded as the 'new rich' those who had money to through around like water to live a pretend lifestyle now find their gravy train of home-equity and credit card cash is at an end. To this end, SBUX has tried to reinvent itself through selling food??? Why compete with the likes of McDonalds? So what did McDonalds do, they began to sell 'up-scale' coffee as a simple menu move for big profits and a crush of SBUX's core business. If McDonalds find it necessary, they will put in WiFi areas with an intimate atmosphere - and then SBUX has nothing unique to offer. SBUX is having to close stores - stores that were put in 'trendy' spots with high rents as everyone trampled each other to sell premium items at 'fluff' prices. $4 scoops of ice-cream come to mind as well.

Now for CROX, sure the shoes were 'fad' but the redeeming qualities of Croslite is being supporting, comfortable and most importantly odor-proof are unique and hard to duplicate. Court victories against the rip-offs are falling to CROX. As a relatively small company, although some 800MM in sales this year, it has broadened it product line in shoes and apparel and is moving form its core products. This process takes time, but not much. As a brand it is not a fad. As it garners shelf-space and a growing presence through company owned stores to showcase its entire product line, it will return as a cash machine and will likely be taken out instead of being allowed to be a competitive force. As for scare talk about bankruptcy, they are far from it. This talk enables the bears to cover their shorts and even go long. What the short position fall over the next couple of months as the shorts find something else with downside potential. The smart money will tell what it going to happen.

In the near term, market rallies that make the public assume that all is well, will raise all boats, including the likes of CROX and SBUX. So let's see the percentage moves for each using Friday's close as the benchmark - SBUX 14.42 and CROX 4.44. Timeframe - by the election.

I do not have a position in either stock. My position was long CROX at around 7 and sold at 9.88 the day it ran to 10.55 as the shorts got gunned before the shoe was dropped the next day. Pun intended. I believe that CROX presents a better chance of a 50% trade in the next couple of months than does SBUX.

Crocs: Forget the Cheese

So, you have been short CROX the whole time since that first drop?
Otherwise hindsight is only 20/20.
Truth is, the 'prospect' of good news - rosey eps predictions keeps investors buying - good for those who want to short.
My self-programmed system removes the human from making such mistakes and only follows the movement of the stock - any stock - and makes long/short orders through a direct-access broker.
The system bought CROX a little over 7 after its 2nd dip below 7 held by a penny. I sold at 9.88 the day it ran to 10.55. The order to sell was placed shortly after the open when it dropped to around 9.30. By shear coincidence, the stock closed the day [after the shorts were gunned] at 9.88 - the system's sell price. CROX was on it 6 day of advances and was long in the tooth, I had programmed for such instances where the move would be culminated by a high volume spike. Check to tape and you will he the heistation when it reached my sell order and then took it out and blew through to over 10.
Then of course, any reason for selling a long position is a reason to open a short - so it did at 10.02 and added to it at 10.35 - theory is that the move was exhausted and any 'gunning' thereafter is free money - and it was. Short was covered on the open 2 days later - over and out. Better fish now - long and short.
Of course, if the announcement had come out on day 5 of the move, I would have gotten creamed. The system only sees what it happening and of course can be blindsided - nothing is perfect. I can only tell it when earning are due, dates of presentation, etc. - known events where volatility rules are 'flagged' to kick in.
Happy trading - CROX has real products and earnings power and will likely stick around - I'll be back when the action warrnats it.