jbde

Are Clouds Over the Solar Industry Dissipating?

Yes - demand will return as ASP's stabilize.
Spot prices are just that - SPOT - suspect price others tout
Cannot buy in volume at spot prices.
When demand comes back and 'spot' prices jump, will that be quoted as indication of wildly high selling prices again?

Low for solar stocks may well have been seen - 'smart' money starts accummulating positions early - that seems to be now. Shorts got squeezed and 'real' buyers should be back in in force on next up move. LDK for example. also JASO, CSIQ.

LDK going into power projects with Q-Cells is certainly an interesting move - create your own demand! Buy around 10 for easy 50% move to above recent highs.

Solar Stocks: Testing the Uptrends

Based on LDK's huge volume strength and the fact that they are not delaying the ramp of poly-si plants, they will eventually become the low cost wafer producer and will gain mkt share. May be too early to chase, but I sold over 14 and will be buying back around 20dma - 10 or so - if it gives the opportunity. Look for bottom next Tue or Wed - seems typical after options expirations.

First Solar Vulnerable to a Big Selloff

Wafer prices can come down with wafer producers [LDK] making their own poly-si. But FSLR cannot reduce prices and in fact may see its raw material prices go up.

Module makers still have to face costs of assemby, aluminum and glass. Mechanization favors lower ASP's, however the aluminum and glass components can fluctuate greatly [effects all producers].

Bottom line - solar market will broaden with lower ASP's for modules while all companies in the food chain reap profits. But FLSR has very little cost downside potential compared with LDK being able to pump out poly-si at a projected $30/kg after obtaining full ramp of it 15,000mt plant [2 yrs]. Other big players like, WFR, SOL, REC will also be able to lower wafer prices and thus help pure module makers enjoy lower wafer coss.

Solar Industry's Long Term Outlook

nice slip - Greed parity instead of grid parity.

LDK sells it wafers to Q-cells. As poly-si prices drop over time as more efficient production comes on line, wafer will begin to get the upper hand on thin-film as thin-film cannot achieve the future cost reductions that wafers can.

Lower raw materials prices mean lower module prices and thus can reach a broader market. And the demand is certianly there once project finanicng comes back - and it will.

Wafers are here to stay, ESLR ribbion process is most interesting and I expect similar [non-infringing] methods to develop, such as steaming poly-si direclty onto substrates or even between substrates with clear conductive top surfaces.

Solar's Dead Cat Bounce May Be Over

Check your math - "STP almost 300% from 5 to 14" - might as well be almost 2300% - the correct figure based on the prices you cite is 180% that would be (14-5) / 5

LDK would be 81.3% not 70% so why not round to 80% instead of 70%

If the facts are wrong, then the conclusions are too!

Not All Solar Stocks Are Created Equal

Eric,
Does SPWRA buy wafers from LDK? I believe their utility scale projects also require that they buy modules from other module manufacturers.

Yes, their bifacial wafers are the industry leader [overall conversion efficiency per unit of gross module front face area due to backside eteching of conductors and ability to convert reflected irradiation on the backside]

Re LDK: If they are able to produce polySi at costs of $26/kg versus contract prices over $200/kg - doesn't one of two things or both happen?
LDK's margins skyrocket, LDK can offer wafers at lowers prices.

Thus module makers buying cheaper wafers from LDK have lower costs, thus lower module prices should follow.

There appears to be more downside in module material costs this way than FSLR can achieve. Thus wafers may become the preferred PV base and thinfilm will lose its current cost advantage !?!?!?!?

Has the Sun Set on Solar Energy Stocks?

jcordes - Polly is a nice name for a parrot and silicone makes a more realistic filling for breast inplants.
If you cannot get it right, why post?
try 'poly-si' or to be more versed, look up p-si and a-si.

Stocks go up and down.
When the whorehouse burns, the pretty ones run with the ugly ones.
And the whorehouse IS burning.
When the fire is out, the pretty ones have a better chance of 'employment' and the ugly ones wither away.

Good work Dr Duru - keep it coming

Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings

This one really hit somes nerves.
1) who can find another industry growing faster?
2) markets and stocks go up and down
3) there's a time to be short and a time to be long - both work
4) when the whorehouse burns the pretty ones run with the ugly ones
5) If O wins, all stocks get slaughtered to lock in cap gains rate