jbde

Solyndra's IPO Will Be Closely Watched

S's panels take too much area per watt - this is just not a winning solution. Pack the tubes together and cast too much shadow. Spread them apart - and why do that - too much area. Just look at each tube and the low watts per sq meter is absurd. Flat will win the day.

Whatever happened to Nanosolar? Printing of CIGS.

First Solar Sell-Off Is Overdone

I guess about everything has been said. My position, as pointed out by others, is the limited downside for thinfilm costs of materials and production, whereas silicon has a long way to go as mass production plants [LDK] come online. The module packaging and installation area required are also negatives for thinfilm [less efficient per sf, thus requires more land/roof than silicon modules. Not to mention more glass, more aluminum, more supports, more wiring, more transportation costs, more, more, etc.

Solar Sector Makes Its Way Back into the Light

While oil prices have risen recently, the solar stocks have declined. The glut of oil is not reflected in the price - YET.

Solar stocks still face the reality of lack of enough financing and the removal of subsidies.

I agree on STP, but also CSIQ and YGE are the best indicators.
I disagree regarding FSLR as they are facing a floor in the cost curve for thinfilm whereas the wafer module makers continue to see cost reduction.

With oil at resistance, I would be careful of even STP breaking the trendline you show - today could be crucial, and so far looks to be a solar bounce. But the big drop in China [5% at worse, 2.6% on close] portends end of stimulus in China. The Baltic Dry Index continues to fall meaning there is much less shipping activity of goods into and out of China.

Our markets quitely gave up their gains yesterday. Expect a mild Bernanke bounce and we will see if the next wave of selling is met with buying - at some point it will not be once the little bit of money moving into mutual funds stops.

Trina Solar: First Solar Won’t Be Low-Cost Leader for Long

As I have stated in prior posts - FSLR has 2 problems, cost reduction of raw materials and higher cost of installation.

As you note Si costs are going down and can continue. FSLR input costs have reached bottom and only efficiencies of production remain - and same production efficiencies are afforded to Si cell and module makers.

Soon installation costs will dominate - land [roof] area, support frames and module frames and glass not to mention transportation costs of more materials. Since thinfilm is less efficient, it requires more of all.

FSLR's competitve advantage is slipping away - it's just a matter of time.

What of CSIQ - it seems to have been only p-si module make to have posted real profits???????

Will Pickens' Scrapped Project Slow Wind Energy Momentum?

you said .....
I guess they didn't get the memo about how supporting the integration of renewable energy is probably one of the most patriotic things you can do.

What a stupid thing to say - it's all about economics. The private sector will not invest unless there is a return. The government does need to encourage infrastructure by facilitiating power lines to the wind and sun belts. Subsidies and low interest loans will be required for a powerline operator to make such an investment.

Realitiy is that projects will develop closer to usage - solar and and wind, where the addative load on exisitng transmission lines is minimal.

Solar is still better as it can be 'hidden' on roof tops and the basic material [sand] gets cheaper to process into wafers. Thin film cannot compete with the potential decline in poly-si costs - with all in the foodchain being profitable. It will take years to build the capacity to make a dent in electric demand, but it's on the way.

Are Clouds Over the Solar Industry Dissipating?

Yes - demand will return as ASP's stabilize.
Spot prices are just that - SPOT - suspect price others tout
Cannot buy in volume at spot prices.
When demand comes back and 'spot' prices jump, will that be quoted as indication of wildly high selling prices again?

Low for solar stocks may well have been seen - 'smart' money starts accummulating positions early - that seems to be now. Shorts got squeezed and 'real' buyers should be back in in force on next up move. LDK for example. also JASO, CSIQ.

LDK going into power projects with Q-Cells is certainly an interesting move - create your own demand! Buy around 10 for easy 50% move to above recent highs.

First Solar Vulnerable to a Big Selloff

Wafer prices can come down with wafer producers [LDK] making their own poly-si. But FSLR cannot reduce prices and in fact may see its raw material prices go up.

Module makers still have to face costs of assemby, aluminum and glass. Mechanization favors lower ASP's, however the aluminum and glass components can fluctuate greatly [effects all producers].

Bottom line - solar market will broaden with lower ASP's for modules while all companies in the food chain reap profits. But FLSR has very little cost downside potential compared with LDK being able to pump out poly-si at a projected $30/kg after obtaining full ramp of it 15,000mt plant [2 yrs]. Other big players like, WFR, SOL, REC will also be able to lower wafer prices and thus help pure module makers enjoy lower wafer coss.

ReneSola's New Business Model Is Designed to Beat Wall Street

Why hold FSLR - they cannot get lower production costs as the wafer based PV makers. As companies like LDK are able to produce their own poly-si at $30/kg they can thus lower wafer prices to customers and greatly expand the market for modules at lower ASPs.

There will be a run on poly-si soon as China subsidies generate real business and bookings are made for modules for US project well in advance of installation as larger PPA based projects try to lock in low module prices.

The expectations of a turn will cause spot prices for poly-si to jump - as well as glass and aluminum for frames. China has been buying all the commodiites it can during the downturn and stockpiling to enjoy low costs as commodity prices jump [as they are starting to now].

As module assembly becomes more and more automated, wafer based manufacturers will achieve lower and lower costs despite aluminum and glass price rises [which will level off at some point].

Solar Industry's Long Term Outlook

nice slip - Greed parity instead of grid parity.

LDK sells it wafers to Q-cells. As poly-si prices drop over time as more efficient production comes on line, wafer will begin to get the upper hand on thin-film as thin-film cannot achieve the future cost reductions that wafers can.

Lower raw materials prices mean lower module prices and thus can reach a broader market. And the demand is certianly there once project finanicng comes back - and it will.

Wafers are here to stay, ESLR ribbion process is most interesting and I expect similar [non-infringing] methods to develop, such as steaming poly-si direclty onto substrates or even between substrates with clear conductive top surfaces.

Solar's Dead Cat Bounce May Be Over

Check your math - "STP almost 300% from 5 to 14" - might as well be almost 2300% - the correct figure based on the prices you cite is 180% that would be (14-5) / 5

LDK would be 81.3% not 70% so why not round to 80% instead of 70%

If the facts are wrong, then the conclusions are too!

First Solar and Suntech Power to Build Solar Farm in Abu Dhabi

My first thought as well

Not All Solar Stocks Are Created Equal

Eric,
Does SPWRA buy wafers from LDK? I believe their utility scale projects also require that they buy modules from other module manufacturers.

Yes, their bifacial wafers are the industry leader [overall conversion efficiency per unit of gross module front face area due to backside eteching of conductors and ability to convert reflected irradiation on the backside]

Re LDK: If they are able to produce polySi at costs of $26/kg versus contract prices over $200/kg - doesn't one of two things or both happen?
LDK's margins skyrocket, LDK can offer wafers at lowers prices.

Thus module makers buying cheaper wafers from LDK have lower costs, thus lower module prices should follow.

There appears to be more downside in module material costs this way than FSLR can achieve. Thus wafers may become the preferred PV base and thinfilm will lose its current cost advantage !?!?!?!?

Solar Stocks Rebounding, Is It Time to Buy?

LDK - SPWRA is their largest customer and produces bifacial cells and modules. Wafers will still be around and produce much more power in intense sunlight than amorphous thinfilm. Thinfilm is good for typically cloudy areas as it is good at converting diffuse light.

Solar Companies Overseas: Where the Sun Don't Shine No More

Sales drops do not seem to be due to demand, but currency.
Sure some project will be delayed due to financing.
No mandates or incnetives are being pulled.

In any case, y-o-y revenues will be up dramatically.
LDK is an outright gift at 10
Find me another industry growing faster and we will talk about it!

Look at the recent LDK/BP deal and now today's JASO/BP deal.
BP is a quality customer and making a true commitment to solar.

Duke Power wants to put modules on customers' roofs. Why?
Can justify proximity to user mitigating losses during transmission.

The Honeymoon Is Over: Gauging the Market with an Obama Presidency

C.S.- what about SunPower, they use c-Si and in huge volume - their kicker in bifacial [ability to use backlighting - reflected or diffuse]. They achieve this by photolythography [CY - as in etching circuits] to apply BOTH + and - pickups on the backside. Since the metal is very narrow, the exposed Si enables the additional PV conversion. This is all opposed to other wafer users who place one pickup on the face of the wafer and the other on the back. SPWRA is a long time player in PV and well fixed in CA with commercial and utility scale customers. The CA defeat was for an extension, thus doe not effect mandatesfor the near future [2012]. Isn't LDK a bif supplier to SPWRA?