Robert Jung

Case-Shiller 2nd Derivative Problems?

How much influence does the first time home buyer credit have on the past three months increase? As the credit tails off is pricing following, it looks like it. Could it just be artificial.

New Home Sales: Is 'Soar' the Right Word?

Welcome to the "state" run media.

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Perfect Article, Spot On! My research agrees.

Private Equity: Making Great Investments, And Making Those Investments Better

Spot on.

Cramer's Mad Money - Paul Krugman Is Wrong (8/10/09)

Plain and simple - Cramer is an actor, his producer was with the Jerry Springer Show.

It's July 2009: Where's That Promised Recovery?

Is it an L shaped recovery or the start of the next recession, Depression, or decession, what ever you want to call it? I am looking to the 30's and 70's for insight. I know history doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme. I'd appreciate your thoughts.


On Jul 01 11:41 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> End of the year says Janet Yellen. I spent the evening with Dr. Janet
> Yellen, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
> She thinks that thanks to the government’s tax cuts and spending
> programs, we will be out of the recession by the end of this year.
> After massive inventory liquidation, the auto industry in particular
> is poised for a rebound. Financial markets are now in better condition
> than we imagined possible six months ago. However, the pace of the
> recovery will be frustratingly slow, and it could take several years
> to return to full employment. Since the majority of the Fed board
> members feel that inflation will be stuck at 2% for years to come,
> deflation presents a greater risk than inflation. We are not by any
> means out of the woods yet. Rising energy prices and interest rates
> are a potential drag on the economy. Commercial real estate is at
> the top of her worry list, as falling rents and capital values could
> create a downward spiral, further impairing the banks. China’s wishes
> for an alternate reserve currency are impractical. Answering questions
> as only a UC Berkeley professor can, she further confirmed my belief
> that we are looking at an “L” shaped recovery at best. However, she
> did pour some cold water on my idea that the TBT has further to run.
> “Inflation running up to untoward levels doesn’t make any sense,”
> she averred.

Ken Lewis: The Government Made Me Do It!

The next revolution is at hand.

Fixing CNBC

CNBC is there to SELL advertisement time, "period".

They are in business to make a profit. So they will do what it take to make a profit. I personally don't think they are biased in their reporting; at least not like the national news programs.

The world is not and will not ever be fair. This is the problem with "the everyone gets a trophy" group. If you just ignore "media matters" you take away their power.

I hope America stops it mouth breathing, drooling, lazy behavior and starts to educate themselves. Don't be spoon fed from the left nor the right. Neither provides the answer.

Be responsible for yourself and your family and quit relying on "Uncle Sam".

The Coming Depression: See It Clearly Through Historical Eyes

Response to SW Richmond. Being a 46 year old and the son of depression era father, I take exception to your comment:

"This group has failed miserably, and continues to fail, at every step of the way, at recognizing this downturn for what it is."

It is the front-end of the Baby Boomers (55-63 year old), not the tail-end, gen X, and Ys. We are not the "Hippies" who over indulged at every turn of our lives. And if you have some evidence to the contrary, remember we were the student to our older siblings.

The 30 to 40 years are not the people in power or were not ones in power when the mess began. Could it have been your generation by chance? Remember that these problems began over 25 years ago.

In addition, there have been many papers on depression cycles which note that the US enters a depression roughly every 75 years. Greenspan financially postpone the last one so it didn't occur on his watch.

Long Term Housing Stability Is Based on Strong Borrowers

You hit it on the head, to bad our leaders don't seem to get it. I guess that's what a leader (whore) will do to get elected. This goes for both parties. Our current electorial system is broke.

'The Shallowest Generation': A Rebuttal

JGQ and DVW hit it on the head. I am on the tail end of the boomers (1963); the older "boomers" are the biggest bunch of babies I have ever dealt with. I'd like to see the "boomers" reclassified into to two groups the first eight to ten year = "the whiners", the next = "the doers". The first group needs to retire and get out of the way.

I didn't vote for our President - Elect. But wonder if his victory has a referendum against the "whiners", who have taken so much and not given much back. Their parents, the greatest generation, must be so "disappointed". Which in my personal life were the worst words I ever heard from my parents.

7 Steps To Restore Functioning Markets

It was an accounting entry the accelerated the problem to such a great magnitude = "Mark to Mark". Former FDIC Chairman Issac pointed this out sometime ago. SARBOX should go down in history as the assassin that killed on of the greatest economies. You can't legislate morality, intelligence... As example we have a tax code with over 7 million word in it and people still cheat or better said find loopholes.

Does Keynesian Spending Force Savers to Spend As Well?

If the criminals are the ones holding court, then the crimes with continue. I agree - vote the incumbents (criminals) out.

Planned, Cautious Buying Amidst This Panicked Selling

To "a believer": If you feel so strongly on your projection then why not invest in it? Buy the Proshares' UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS).

Are We at the Brink or the Breakout?

I like your analysis, it rational. But I don't agree with your comment that investors haven't lost faith in the financial system. Many of my clients have lost faith. I have spent much time talking them out of irrational behavior.

My biggest concern is rational thought winning ove irrational behavior.