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das555

das555
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  • Out Come The Big Guns: Atlantic Power Investigations Launched [View article]
    I would not expect any reimbursement from a law suit - only a return of some of the discomfort experienced by the share holders.
    Mar 9 08:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlantic Power: A Tale Of Misinformation [View article]
    Poor decision; Not informing shareholders of the major impact that the sale of the Florida power plants would have on DCF.
    Poor decision: Raising the dividend with the contracts expiring that provided a major share of DCF.
    Poor decision: stating the management's confidence in AT's ability to sustain the dividend despite the expiring contracts.
    The market has spoken as to the managements success in running their business and as to the trust placed in the management.

    BTW I listen to every conference call and read all SEC submissions on stocks I own. This data was hidden as the author points out.

    You win some and you lose some but you play the game correctly and by the rules.

    Easy to have 20/20 hindsight and to misdirect responsibility for losses to the loser.

    I am out of AT but have no real lessons learned other than occasionally it is a rigged game.
    Mar 5 03:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlantic Power: A Tale Of Misinformation [View article]
    It might be a good idea for you to author an article that fleshes out the concept of certain "expected yields" from a given class of equities with variance acting as a "red flag". What classes, what yields expected? No discovery of the market making a short term error?
    Move with the herd and you will be safe?
    AT for the past 8 - 10 years had been a reliable payer of high yields and the big price swings have been relatively recent due to corporate acquisitions and a changing business model that was distrusted by some who sold but trusted by others who had had previous good experience with this management team. It now turns out that the management team was in fact making poor recent decisions and was not providing investors with up front clarity on the company's status. I believe this obfuscation by management was the true cause of the difficulty in assessing AT and that this was not a case of you should have known and should have avoided the stock simply because it yielded 9%. Retrospective decision making is easy and not very useful.
    Mar 4 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Atlantic Power For A 10% Yield, Paid Monthly [View article]
    Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me...
    Mar 1 08:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlantic Power Cuts Dividend And Adopts A 'Poison Pill' Plan [View article]
    This may be an instance where there is a true cause for share holder class action. Given the recent public statements as quoted above one can only conclude that the CEO was deliberately misleading share holders or he was grossly mismanaging the company. These facts coupled with share holder anger at being duped are the stuff of punitive litigation - sign me on.
    Mar 1 04:13 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Atlantic Power For A 10% Yield, Paid Monthly [View article]
    Well, now we know - management's silence was indeed shouting dividend reduction...
    Feb 28 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Dividend Cuts For Dividend-Rich Closed-End Municipal Bond Funds [View article]
    Interesting look at a largely neglected but useful income investment vehicle - the Muni Bond CEF. While the UNII and ECR would seem to be likely predictors of a dividend change in an interest rate static world, I suspect the interest rate environment will be the major determinant of the success or failure of these funds as they are constituted of bonds and many, if not most, are leveraged to provide higher distributions.
    Feb 13 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -0.2%) roundup: 1) Leon Cooperman liquidated his 266K-share stake in Apple in Q4 (13F). Cooperman gradually built his position over 2 years. 2) Bloomberg adds its name to those reporting an iWatch is in development (previous). ~100 product designers are reportedly working on it. 3) Jefferies Peter Misek believes iPhone 5 build orders have been slashed to 30M from 40M, but thinks this is due to an upcoming iPhone 5S launch. Misek, whose track record with iPredictions is spotty, also expects a 4.8" iPhone, but not until mid-2014 due to display yield issues. [View news story]
    What a terrible and troubled company Apple is - may not last the week...Please everybody, if you own this terminally distressed company go sell your stock immediately ---(so I can buy some more)...
    Feb 13 02:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Atlantic Power For A 10% Yield, Paid Monthly [View article]
    From Annual Report: 2011 EBITA ~ 185 million $

    Rough Math:

    Lost Annual Revenue: Auburndale 11% = 20.35 million $
    Lake 10% = 18.5 million $
    Total = 38.85 million $
    New Revenues (from above article - minimum):
    Piedmont: 8 million $
    Canadian Hills: 16 million $
    Orlando: 14 million $
    Total New Revenue (minimum estimate): 38 million $

    Rough math not too bad.
    Feb 2 11:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Atlantic Power For A 10% Yield, Paid Monthly [View article]
    The key issue is whether Atlantic Power can continue to pay the current dividend or whether a dividend cut will be necessary. One would have hoped, in the interests of the share holders, that a comment would have been made regarding managements view of dividend security in the announcement of these asset sales. The absence of such a comment has undermined confidence in the company and led to a justified reduction in share price. Without management's view we are only left to estimate and guess with less than perfect data and that is troublesome for the typical utility holder. Why did management not comment on dividend security?
    One can only conclude that either they did not foresee the effects of their significant revenue generating asset sale announcement, which suggests poor judgement, or they feel the dividend is indeed at jeopardy and their silence is announcing this unpleasant fact.
    Nether possibility leads one to be happy in the ownership of the company.
    Feb 2 01:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 MLPs To Watch In 2013 [View article]
    I suspect Roger Conrad's publishing company puts out these articles to SA which are rehashes of notes from his subscription services. The articles are therefore sometimes not well constructed and it is rare to receive author follow up in the comments.
    Jan 24 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Among energy companies tracked by 24/7, the sharpest increases in short interest came in top pipeline MLPs Kinder Morgan (KMP) and Enterprise (EPD). With the pipeline partnerships’ business model a proven winner, the increase in short interest looks like a bet against the pipeline companies based on debt levels and shrinking cash flows as demand slackens. [View news story]
    May have MLP tax changes in mind - not a good bet to me.
    Dec 12 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlantic Power: Monthly Dividend With A 9.75% Yield [View article]
    For what it is worth Roger Conrad who has followed AT for many years has spoken to the CEO and CFO and feels confident that they were not warning on the AT dividend.
    Nov 29 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC (VNR) declares $0.20/share monthly dividend, 1.3% increase from prior dividend of $0.20. Forward yield 9.35%. For shareholders of record Dec. 3. Payable Dec. 14. Ex-div Nov. 29. (PR[View news story]
    Thank you VNR.
    Nov 16 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Energy MLPs Will Beat Utilities In The Months Ahead [View article]
    The big unknown re MLPs : Change in tax policy??
    Nov 12 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
154 Comments
343 Likes