TBill's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/190985/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/178444-slide-of-doom-u-s-housing-markets-have-peaked?source=feed#comment-808621 808621
That said, there are vast areas of the country where sellers are clinging to the high prices they are used to, resulting in lots of inventory and few sales. Either these markets crack, and we see the C-S index fall, or the sellers wait it out until the economy improves.

Rule of thumb: don't pay more than the house was going for 10 years ago and you'll be OK. ]]> Wed, 16 Dec 2009 12:55:29 -0500
That said, there are vast areas of the country where sellers are clinging to the high prices they are used to, resulting in lots of inventory and few sales. Either these markets crack, and we see the C-S index fall, or the sellers wait it out until the economy improves.

Rule of thumb: don't pay more than the house was going for 10 years ago and you'll be OK. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176853-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-794053 794053 Note to AIG: I'm available!


On Dec 07 07:48 AM BPYHO wrote:

> Why is AIG executives threatening to leave even news!? Clip their
> salaries and let them leave! Other people can step up. I'm sure the
> heads of all the other divisions have vice-presidents, ect..... That's
> the whole point in HAVING a vice, to step up in place of the head/president!
> I'm so sick of hearing the news talk about these idiots working for
> companies that went bankrupt threatening to leave!]]> Mon, 07 Dec 2009 09:32:00 -0500 Note to AIG: I'm available!


On Dec 07 07:48 AM BPYHO wrote:

> Why is AIG executives threatening to leave even news!? Clip their
> salaries and let them leave! Other people can step up. I'm sure the
> heads of all the other divisions have vice-presidents, ect..... That's
> the whole point in HAVING a vice, to step up in place of the head/president!
> I'm so sick of hearing the news talk about these idiots working for
> companies that went bankrupt threatening to leave!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175437-case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values?source=feed#comment-778660 778660 Right now you can't build a new house at a profit. Home prices are therefore down to the inflation adjusted trend line, or a little below.
The dollar is down to the point that offshore money is coming into the US, buying up our incredibly cheap residential real estate.
Hmm, maybe China has found something to do with it's hoard of $$.]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 14:34:40 -0500 Right now you can't build a new house at a profit. Home prices are therefore down to the inflation adjusted trend line, or a little below.
The dollar is down to the point that offshore money is coming into the US, buying up our incredibly cheap residential real estate.
Hmm, maybe China has found something to do with it's hoard of $$.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174253-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-767640 767640 Hmm, he just got lectured about it by China, seems to me it's just lip service to appease them. Watch what he does, not what he says.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:44:48 -0500 Hmm, he just got lectured about it by China, seems to me it's just lip service to appease them. Watch what he does, not what he says.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173237-closed-end-funds-how-to-buy-stocks-at-20-discount-from-current-price?source=feed#comment-760180 760180 Then there is CET, very low management fee, selling near a 20% discount, all because it has a quarter of its fund in a private insurance company... which is valued quite conservatively.
BTW, there is a yahoo group for Closed End fund discussion...]]> Sat, 14 Nov 2009 10:53:25 -0500 Then there is CET, very low management fee, selling near a 20% discount, all because it has a quarter of its fund in a private insurance company... which is valued quite conservatively.
BTW, there is a yahoo group for Closed End fund discussion...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170820-why-central-securities-corporation-looks-attractive?source=feed#comment-744371 744371 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:14:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/169784-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-736584 736584 Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:52:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168484-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-727016 727016 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:53:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165106-natural-gas-worst-investment-ever?source=feed#comment-707194 707194 > I think there will be more opportunities in NG this winter. Even
> with the oversupply I think NG will tighten. It is already starting
> to be a bad winter, with furnaces kicking on in early October in
> most of the midwest.

We blame global warming.... er, 'climate change'.]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:08:06 -0400 > I think there will be more opportunities in NG this winter. Even
> with the oversupply I think NG will tighten. It is already starting
> to be a bad winter, with furnaces kicking on in early October in
> most of the midwest.

We blame global warming.... er, 'climate change'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164257-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-698701 698701 Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:11:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163105-a-shortage-of-bullets-presents-investment-opportunities?source=feed#comment-689173 689173
Olin is far from a pure play.

I see ammo is becoming available again, tho high priced. Still not shooting my 380. At 80 cents a round, can't afford it. Instead, shooting my 45 at 50 cents. At least I now can find it.]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 11:33:53 -0400
Olin is far from a pure play.

I see ammo is becoming available again, tho high priced. Still not shooting my 380. At 80 cents a round, can't afford it. Instead, shooting my 45 at 50 cents. At least I now can find it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161964-ung-the-best-way-to-invest-in-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-681259 681259 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:39:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161354-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-675639 675639 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:06:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160540-social-security-trust-fund-shocker-6-billion-august-deficit?source=feed#comment-668620 668620
Those 'SS will be broke by...' estimates vary widely year by year. Truth is no one knows what the economy and demographics will be that far out. And when it does run out, with no changes, benefits would have to be cut by only 25%. Not pleasant, but not a disaster.

The problem is that the Feds have been using the vast SS surplus that we have been running for decades to cushion the overall deficit. Now we are entering the drawdown phase, and since SS has not been a separate account since LBJ, the deficit is increased just when we got a president with big, costly ideas.

Back in the '80's I told my students that if they had nothing else, they would get their SS. Otherwise, don't count on it. Given the politics of the day, look for a call for well off retiries to take a hit 'for the greater good'. ]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 11:13:22 -0400
Those 'SS will be broke by...' estimates vary widely year by year. Truth is no one knows what the economy and demographics will be that far out. And when it does run out, with no changes, benefits would have to be cut by only 25%. Not pleasant, but not a disaster.

The problem is that the Feds have been using the vast SS surplus that we have been running for decades to cushion the overall deficit. Now we are entering the drawdown phase, and since SS has not been a separate account since LBJ, the deficit is increased just when we got a president with big, costly ideas.

Back in the '80's I told my students that if they had nothing else, they would get their SS. Otherwise, don't count on it. Given the politics of the day, look for a call for well off retiries to take a hit 'for the greater good'. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160048-ung-trading-101?source=feed#comment-663130 663130 I've avoided UNG because it was obvious it would be eaten alive by contango... Nat Gas had to rise MORE than expected for it to show a profit.
Strange, I'm sitting on top of the Barnett Shale, and I see the rigs are still drilling, even tho they've tapped into more supply than we can go thru in a decade.



On Sep 05 09:27 AM Dukk wrote:

> Why pay a premium for UNG? There are way better ng plays out there...]]> Sat, 05 Sep 2009 11:36:33 -0400 I've avoided UNG because it was obvious it would be eaten alive by contango... Nat Gas had to rise MORE than expected for it to show a profit.
Strange, I'm sitting on top of the Barnett Shale, and I see the rigs are still drilling, even tho they've tapped into more supply than we can go thru in a decade.



On Sep 05 09:27 AM Dukk wrote:

> Why pay a premium for UNG? There are way better ng plays out there...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159031-marijuana-lsd-cocaine-now-legal-in-mexico-will-the-economy-benefit?source=feed#comment-655300 655300
TBill
***


On Aug 30 08:31 PM TinyTim wrote:

> Before everyone rushes off to Juarez and Tijuana to get high, the
> actual Mexican law change eliminates jail time for possession. You
> still get a record and have to go through "counseling". I believe
> after three strikes, you do end up in jail.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 16:41:02 -0400
TBill
***


On Aug 30 08:31 PM TinyTim wrote:

> Before everyone rushes off to Juarez and Tijuana to get high, the
> actual Mexican law change eliminates jail time for possession. You
> still get a record and have to go through "counseling". I believe
> after three strikes, you do end up in jail.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158574-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-648921 648921

On Aug 27 08:28 AM ScroogeMcduck wrote:

> There were less taxes with King George.

If Great Britain would let us have the old Hong Kong government, I say we give ourselves back!]]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 11:06:37 -0400

On Aug 27 08:28 AM ScroogeMcduck wrote:

> There were less taxes with King George.

If Great Britain would let us have the old Hong Kong government, I say we give ourselves back!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158263-one-good-thing-about-estimated-current-housing-values-reality?source=feed#comment-647409 647409 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 11:45:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156828-new-cars-more-affordable-than-ever-before-in-u-s-history?source=feed#comment-636562 636562
That's the problem with you young guys, not thinking outside your own experience.]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:45:51 -0400
That's the problem with you young guys, not thinking outside your own experience.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155605-zillow-s-prediction-for-underwater-homeowners?source=feed#comment-626675 626675
Too bad you are not in Vegas or Phoenix. House lists, bidder fall all over themselves with multiple offers. Typically go for 10% over list, sometimes much more. They are down to a 3 month supply.

It's all a matter of discovering price.]]> Wed, 12 Aug 2009 11:21:22 -0400
Too bad you are not in Vegas or Phoenix. House lists, bidder fall all over themselves with multiple offers. Typically go for 10% over list, sometimes much more. They are down to a 3 month supply.

It's all a matter of discovering price.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152476-has-the-housing-market-hit-bottom?source=feed#comment-609950 609950 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:29:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151578-u-s-housing-has-bottomed?source=feed#comment-605153 605153
IN Ft. Worth, prices moving up. An open house at a $300k plus house was swamped with interested buyers. Problems with appraisals, getting loans, but the demand is there.]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 12:29:45 -0400
IN Ft. Worth, prices moving up. An open house at a $300k plus house was swamped with interested buyers. Problems with appraisals, getting loans, but the demand is there.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151469-homebuilders-slam-on-the-brakes?source=feed#comment-603671 603671 Mon, 27 Jul 2009 11:44:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149720-state-by-state-unemployment-rate-june-2009-update?source=feed#comment-595144 595144 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 11:48:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149449-crash-and-burn-for-phoenix-area-home-prices?source=feed#comment-591916 591916 Fri, 17 Jul 2009 10:37:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149213-ongoing-134-5-billion-bearer-bond-mystery-possible-link-to-upcoming-bank-holiday?source=feed#comment-590711 590711
And why run off so many? How the heck are you supposed to market them without raising suspicion? Deposit them and borrow against them? I mean, what's a bank to think went someone shows up with over $100 billion to deposit? If they had only one, maybe they get away with it, particularly if no one knows for sure what a real one looks like. Remember, these guys can turn out paper so good even the Treasury wouldn't know the difference without checking the numbers, and even then might pronounce it real. OTOH, once you've set up the presses, might as well run off a bunch...

ONe thing I know for sure, you can forget about a bank holiday for the purpose of devaluing the dollar. It worked in FDR's case because the dollar was tied to gold. Today's dollar isn't tied to anything. ]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:22:01 -0400
And why run off so many? How the heck are you supposed to market them without raising suspicion? Deposit them and borrow against them? I mean, what's a bank to think went someone shows up with over $100 billion to deposit? If they had only one, maybe they get away with it, particularly if no one knows for sure what a real one looks like. Remember, these guys can turn out paper so good even the Treasury wouldn't know the difference without checking the numbers, and even then might pronounce it real. OTOH, once you've set up the presses, might as well run off a bunch...

ONe thing I know for sure, you can forget about a bank holiday for the purpose of devaluing the dollar. It worked in FDR's case because the dollar was tied to gold. Today's dollar isn't tied to anything. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148505-boomers-in-trouble-the-unheralded-economic-mega-trend-part-1?source=feed#comment-587724 587724 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:12:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148341-banks-not-letting-owners-of-foreclosed-homes-walk-away?source=feed#comment-586896 586896

On Jul 13 06:42 PM WAKEUP wrote:

> If I understand all this information, correctly (which may or may
> not be the case, since it's pretty tangled), it seems to me that
> the thing to do if you are underwater with the house mortgage, and
> you're "sick of the whole damned thing," is this: STOP making mortgage
> payments; STOP paying taxes on the old shack; WAIT, payment/rent-free,
> until the sheriff's deputy arrives at the front door, with the eviction
> order (in most places, you'll STILL have 30 days, to get out.) Sure,
> you may be (or may NOT be, depending on what state you live in) saddled
> with a bunch of judgements, etc., after (read, IF) you are evicted
> (which is simply NOT happening, in many cases where the guy just
> won't pay, and won't leave, without a court order), but WHAT THE
> HELL DO YOU CARE? If the judgements are coming, they'll be coming,
> either way. Your credit is SHOT (which would have happened, anyway,
> if you had left the house); you are forced to find another place
> to live (which would have been the case, anyway, if you had left
> the house); it will take you about seven years to make some improvement
> in your creditworthiness (same-oh); you are now on a "cash-only"
> basis, in your life (same-oh); but YOU HAVE MORE MONEY IN YOUR POCKET
> than you would have had if you had continued making payments (suggestion:
> DON'T put that money into a bank account; it could be seized.) Why
> make it easy on everybody else (read, the banks), by making it tough
> on yourself? MAKE 'EM PUT UP, OR SHUT UP. Either way, you'll buy
> more time for yourself, and walk away with more dollars.]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 02:13:34 -0400

On Jul 13 06:42 PM WAKEUP wrote:

> If I understand all this information, correctly (which may or may
> not be the case, since it's pretty tangled), it seems to me that
> the thing to do if you are underwater with the house mortgage, and
> you're "sick of the whole damned thing," is this: STOP making mortgage
> payments; STOP paying taxes on the old shack; WAIT, payment/rent-free,
> until the sheriff's deputy arrives at the front door, with the eviction
> order (in most places, you'll STILL have 30 days, to get out.) Sure,
> you may be (or may NOT be, depending on what state you live in) saddled
> with a bunch of judgements, etc., after (read, IF) you are evicted
> (which is simply NOT happening, in many cases where the guy just
> won't pay, and won't leave, without a court order), but WHAT THE
> HELL DO YOU CARE? If the judgements are coming, they'll be coming,
> either way. Your credit is SHOT (which would have happened, anyway,
> if you had left the house); you are forced to find another place
> to live (which would have been the case, anyway, if you had left
> the house); it will take you about seven years to make some improvement
> in your creditworthiness (same-oh); you are now on a "cash-only"
> basis, in your life (same-oh); but YOU HAVE MORE MONEY IN YOUR POCKET
> than you would have had if you had continued making payments (suggestion:
> DON'T put that money into a bank account; it could be seized.) Why
> make it easy on everybody else (read, the banks), by making it tough
> on yourself? MAKE 'EM PUT UP, OR SHUT UP. Either way, you'll buy
> more time for yourself, and walk away with more dollars.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148015-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-582394 582394

On Jul 10 10:56 AM axelrod608 wrote:

> XOM's big NG find begs the question - in a massive glut of NG oversupply,
> why isn't LNG for auto fuel a national priority ??
>
> Our "leaders" are too busy clamoring for another "stimulus package"
> to notice.]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:50:02 -0400

On Jul 10 10:56 AM axelrod608 wrote:

> XOM's big NG find begs the question - in a massive glut of NG oversupply,
> why isn't LNG for auto fuel a national priority ??
>
> Our "leaders" are too busy clamoring for another "stimulus package"
> to notice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148015-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-582388 582388

On Jul 10 08:43 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> More games with money and markets from our treasury and political
> masters. To be seen to be tough on the banks yet fair, small banks
> are supposedly being asked to pay a lower amount to redeem their
> warrents, and the big banks are complaining. This is just so much
> hogwash. The government and the Fed are in bed with the big banks
> and bankers, and this show is just that: a display designed to fool
> us that tough firm measures are being taken whilst the small guy
> is being considered. I'm not taken in.
>
> Obama's getting his bit in with his public rousting of the mortgage
> companies, so everyone is busy telling us today how much they are
> helping as they don't want us to forget it or them over the weekend.
> Trouble is, there's not many that believe it anyway and not many
> either that think they're doing a very good job.]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:47:12 -0400

On Jul 10 08:43 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> More games with money and markets from our treasury and political
> masters. To be seen to be tough on the banks yet fair, small banks
> are supposedly being asked to pay a lower amount to redeem their
> warrents, and the big banks are complaining. This is just so much
> hogwash. The government and the Fed are in bed with the big banks
> and bankers, and this show is just that: a display designed to fool
> us that tough firm measures are being taken whilst the small guy
> is being considered. I'm not taken in.
>
> Obama's getting his bit in with his public rousting of the mortgage
> companies, so everyone is busy telling us today how much they are
> helping as they don't want us to forget it or them over the weekend.
> Trouble is, there's not many that believe it anyway and not many
> either that think they're doing a very good job.]]>