carey_jim

Is Dollar Revulsion for Real?

Can anyone provide the name(s) of anyone or group who has successfully predicted relative currency values, with excellent timing, during the last ten years?

Proof of these successful, well-timed predictions must be provided of course.

Obviously there is always someone or some group who predicted the LAST relative positions of most world currencies for a given period (say six months) but their track record always seems to return to the mean after a few of these stipulated prediction periods, or proves disastrously wrong in the end IF they manage a relatively long string of correct predictions, say for five or six.

The currency market, like human history itself seems, therefore, to be a random walk taken by a large group of people who don't govern their behavior by reason but by other irrational impulses such as greed, pride, fear, ambition and other animal impulses.

I know in advance that there will always be a very small amount of people who DID predict currency markets with success, for a much longer than average periods, because there are a small amount of exceptional people who win the lottery and other games of chance also. But a tiny group of people who have made fortunes in currency markets, and who no longer risk more than a fraction of their winnings, is not a counter example but is, in fact, further proof.

If consistent success in predicting the future relative value of currencies (and I'm not talking about day trading but relatively long periods such as three months) can't be done, doesn't it make all of this talk about a future devaluation of the dollar moot?