carey_jim's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/191026/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/165586-is-crude-oil-breaking-out?source=feed#comment-710930 710930 --Confucius
If they don't laugh at your jokes then they don't want to hear the truth you are trying to tell them.
--Lenny Bruce
If they SHOOT you for telling a joke then you are living in a totalitarian regime.
--Charlie Chaplin]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:05:11 -0400 --Confucius
If they don't laugh at your jokes then they don't want to hear the truth you are trying to tell them.
--Lenny Bruce
If they SHOOT you for telling a joke then you are living in a totalitarian regime.
--Charlie Chaplin]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165586-is-crude-oil-breaking-out?source=feed#comment-710729 710729
But people would soon notice that there was little need to leave the mansion, except to send the servants out for supplies once a week and that would cause oil to plunge back to about $2 a barrel.

That's why it's so hard to make money in the futures market.

Brooke's Law says it this way:

Whenever a system becomes completely defined, some damn fool discovers something which either abolishes the system or expands it beyond recognition.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:25:31 -0400
But people would soon notice that there was little need to leave the mansion, except to send the servants out for supplies once a week and that would cause oil to plunge back to about $2 a barrel.

That's why it's so hard to make money in the futures market.

Brooke's Law says it this way:

Whenever a system becomes completely defined, some damn fool discovers something which either abolishes the system or expands it beyond recognition.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165657-faces-of-death-the-u-s-dollar-in-crisis?source=feed#comment-710704 710704
Humanity itself is facing a huge crisis and since every individual sees everything from the perspective of his own family, social circle, region and finally country, we tend to blame our own country for everything.

In the 1930's, when the United States seemed to be falling into economic ruin, a very large percentage of Americans, including Joseph Kennedy, the Bush family, Henry Ford, Charles Lindbergh and many, many other prominent figures thought that Nazi Germany was the best hope of the world.

During that same period another very large percentage of Americans, including many other very prominent people, thought that Russian Communism was the best hope of the world.

We need to keep a little historical perspective, I think.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:05:52 -0400
Humanity itself is facing a huge crisis and since every individual sees everything from the perspective of his own family, social circle, region and finally country, we tend to blame our own country for everything.

In the 1930's, when the United States seemed to be falling into economic ruin, a very large percentage of Americans, including Joseph Kennedy, the Bush family, Henry Ford, Charles Lindbergh and many, many other prominent figures thought that Nazi Germany was the best hope of the world.

During that same period another very large percentage of Americans, including many other very prominent people, thought that Russian Communism was the best hope of the world.

We need to keep a little historical perspective, I think.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165229-us-dollar-i-m-not-dead-yet?source=feed#comment-707616 707616
If we look at the history of European unity we see that, for example, the Spanish Empire was definitively displaced by the American Empire with the defeat of Mexico in 1845 and the annexation of the Western United States. After that, Spain never succeeded in becoming a truly unified empire. In the Spanish mainland, at least four language groups, including Spanish, exist along with their independent traditions. Until recently, after the Civil War of the Anarchists, the only force capable of holding anarchist Spain together was the military dictatorship of Franco.

Italy is also divided into incompatible regions and usually wavers between de facto dictatorship (Berlusconi) and anarchy (rule by family and mafia.)

Both Germany and Italy only became countries in the late 19th century and Germany, after a long history of a patchwork of dictators and republics, is still a patchwork of dialects and loosely connected regions and traditions which include Austria, Switzerland, East Germany and West Germany and the regions each country contains.

Compared with the United States, France has been in a state of anarchy since the defeat of Napoleon and has been described by one of its leading sociologists as a Blocked Society, constantly at war with itself and its own interests.

After factoring in Germany's disastrous early 20th century history, it is not easy to believe that the Euro will become a world currency because it is far from clear that Europe CAN unify, not to mention whether Germany, Italy, France and Spain can unify themselves.

America represents Anglo-Saxon civilization which has dominated the world in the form of the British Empire since the defeat of Napoleon. The American Revolution placed America in a position to exploit the massive resources of the North American continent and to surpass Britain itself in economic output by the beginning of the twentieth century.

World War I and II weakened Britain's colonial empire and, to Britain's shock and humiliation, gave America the opportunity to take over Britain's role as ruler of the world, which of course we did. After the defeat of communism, America has had no other rival or enemy on earth OTHER THAN HERSELF.

It makes no historical sense to think that a currency of one of our former mortal enemies, Russia or China would be able, and much less allowed, to take on the role of a world reserve currency.

America is now the leader of the civilization "inherited" from the British and it includes England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, not to mention other English speaking parts of the world such as South Africa.

America has lost its "spiritual" way which can (very briefly) be summarized as individual liberty combined with equal opportunity for advancement of all ("the pursuit of happiness.")

The American plutocracy has closed its ranks and has barely noticed the resulting impoverishment of the ordinary American below, and the shrinking of the American middle class.

The rest of the world is observing us closely and preparing for what looks like a perfect American storm. What form this storm will take is impossible to predict.]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 17:17:14 -0400
If we look at the history of European unity we see that, for example, the Spanish Empire was definitively displaced by the American Empire with the defeat of Mexico in 1845 and the annexation of the Western United States. After that, Spain never succeeded in becoming a truly unified empire. In the Spanish mainland, at least four language groups, including Spanish, exist along with their independent traditions. Until recently, after the Civil War of the Anarchists, the only force capable of holding anarchist Spain together was the military dictatorship of Franco.

Italy is also divided into incompatible regions and usually wavers between de facto dictatorship (Berlusconi) and anarchy (rule by family and mafia.)

Both Germany and Italy only became countries in the late 19th century and Germany, after a long history of a patchwork of dictators and republics, is still a patchwork of dialects and loosely connected regions and traditions which include Austria, Switzerland, East Germany and West Germany and the regions each country contains.

Compared with the United States, France has been in a state of anarchy since the defeat of Napoleon and has been described by one of its leading sociologists as a Blocked Society, constantly at war with itself and its own interests.

After factoring in Germany's disastrous early 20th century history, it is not easy to believe that the Euro will become a world currency because it is far from clear that Europe CAN unify, not to mention whether Germany, Italy, France and Spain can unify themselves.

America represents Anglo-Saxon civilization which has dominated the world in the form of the British Empire since the defeat of Napoleon. The American Revolution placed America in a position to exploit the massive resources of the North American continent and to surpass Britain itself in economic output by the beginning of the twentieth century.

World War I and II weakened Britain's colonial empire and, to Britain's shock and humiliation, gave America the opportunity to take over Britain's role as ruler of the world, which of course we did. After the defeat of communism, America has had no other rival or enemy on earth OTHER THAN HERSELF.

It makes no historical sense to think that a currency of one of our former mortal enemies, Russia or China would be able, and much less allowed, to take on the role of a world reserve currency.

America is now the leader of the civilization "inherited" from the British and it includes England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, not to mention other English speaking parts of the world such as South Africa.

America has lost its "spiritual" way which can (very briefly) be summarized as individual liberty combined with equal opportunity for advancement of all ("the pursuit of happiness.")

The American plutocracy has closed its ranks and has barely noticed the resulting impoverishment of the ordinary American below, and the shrinking of the American middle class.

The rest of the world is observing us closely and preparing for what looks like a perfect American storm. What form this storm will take is impossible to predict.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165180-reserve-bank-of-australia-raises-rates-will-others-follow?source=feed#comment-707226 707226
At least in the light of all this bearish sentiment, I don't think it takes much courage for Australia to lead the pack in the effort to put the brakes on world inflation.

It's a little bit like tacking your sailboat across the wind.

Many people have noticed that the United States Treasury Department might secretly be trying to bring about high inflation in the United States to make it easier to pay off the massive debt.

A weak dollar against any or all currencies would help.

Is this the first step in an attempt to raise world interest rates relative to American interest rates to try to force the dollar down further?

But isn't a weaker dollar bearish for the US GDP?

And isn't a weak American GDP deflationary?

And doesn't financial history prove that it is impossible for governments to set the "real" relative value of currencies (whatever "real" means.)

I have too many questions that I can't answer.

I suspect that the real problem comes from subconsciously relying on a few simple mathematical formulas to determine various financial values such as prices, GDP, incomes, bond yields, fair value of stocks, and commodities, etc.

As the Quantization Revision of Murphy's Law states: "Everything goes wrong all at once."]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:27:37 -0400
At least in the light of all this bearish sentiment, I don't think it takes much courage for Australia to lead the pack in the effort to put the brakes on world inflation.

It's a little bit like tacking your sailboat across the wind.

Many people have noticed that the United States Treasury Department might secretly be trying to bring about high inflation in the United States to make it easier to pay off the massive debt.

A weak dollar against any or all currencies would help.

Is this the first step in an attempt to raise world interest rates relative to American interest rates to try to force the dollar down further?

But isn't a weaker dollar bearish for the US GDP?

And isn't a weak American GDP deflationary?

And doesn't financial history prove that it is impossible for governments to set the "real" relative value of currencies (whatever "real" means.)

I have too many questions that I can't answer.

I suspect that the real problem comes from subconsciously relying on a few simple mathematical formulas to determine various financial values such as prices, GDP, incomes, bond yields, fair value of stocks, and commodities, etc.

As the Quantization Revision of Murphy's Law states: "Everything goes wrong all at once."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165087-the-android-army-verizon-wireless-google-ink-collaboration-pact?source=feed#comment-707162 707162
The Internet itself came from the Arpanet project which was completely developed by academics who were sponsored by the Department of Defense.

But of course, as everyone knows, the government is only useful when when we are defending the American Way of Life from Evil forces plotting to destroy us.

Ever heard of Dvorak or fiber optic networks, for example? In the early 1990's everyone thought the "Internet" was just as Utopian.

There comes a point in the development of any industry when excessive innovation is simply a wasteful attempt to make more money than one's competitor.

The automobile industry proves that: www.earlyamericanautom...]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:49:07 -0400
The Internet itself came from the Arpanet project which was completely developed by academics who were sponsored by the Department of Defense.

But of course, as everyone knows, the government is only useful when when we are defending the American Way of Life from Evil forces plotting to destroy us.

Ever heard of Dvorak or fiber optic networks, for example? In the early 1990's everyone thought the "Internet" was just as Utopian.

There comes a point in the development of any industry when excessive innovation is simply a wasteful attempt to make more money than one's competitor.

The automobile industry proves that: www.earlyamericanautom...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165108-is-dollar-revulsion-for-real?source=feed#comment-706342 706342
Proof of these successful, well-timed predictions must be provided of course.

Obviously there is always someone or some group who predicted the LAST relative positions of most world currencies for a given period (say six months) but their track record always seems to return to the mean after a few of these stipulated prediction periods, or proves disastrously wrong in the end IF they manage a relatively long string of correct predictions, say for five or six.

The currency market, like human history itself seems, therefore, to be a random walk taken by a large group of people who don't govern their behavior by reason but by other irrational impulses such as greed, pride, fear, ambition and other animal impulses.

I know in advance that there will always be a very small amount of people who DID predict currency markets with success, for a much longer than average periods, because there are a small amount of exceptional people who win the lottery and other games of chance also. But a tiny group of people who have made fortunes in currency markets, and who no longer risk more than a fraction of their winnings, is not a counter example but is, in fact, further proof.

If consistent success in predicting the future relative value of currencies (and I'm not talking about day trading but relatively long periods such as three months) can't be done, doesn't it make all of this talk about a future devaluation of the dollar moot?]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 01:39:19 -0400
Proof of these successful, well-timed predictions must be provided of course.

Obviously there is always someone or some group who predicted the LAST relative positions of most world currencies for a given period (say six months) but their track record always seems to return to the mean after a few of these stipulated prediction periods, or proves disastrously wrong in the end IF they manage a relatively long string of correct predictions, say for five or six.

The currency market, like human history itself seems, therefore, to be a random walk taken by a large group of people who don't govern their behavior by reason but by other irrational impulses such as greed, pride, fear, ambition and other animal impulses.

I know in advance that there will always be a very small amount of people who DID predict currency markets with success, for a much longer than average periods, because there are a small amount of exceptional people who win the lottery and other games of chance also. But a tiny group of people who have made fortunes in currency markets, and who no longer risk more than a fraction of their winnings, is not a counter example but is, in fact, further proof.

If consistent success in predicting the future relative value of currencies (and I'm not talking about day trading but relatively long periods such as three months) can't be done, doesn't it make all of this talk about a future devaluation of the dollar moot?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164402-end-the-fed-author-ron-paul-s-ny-victory-lap?source=feed#comment-704090 704090 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...


On Oct 05 04:38 AM roy piper wrote:

> carey_jim, it is not true that Libertarians are anarchists. It is
> YOU who say they are. That is all. We make no such claim. I look
> at Libertarians as being those who believe people can make their
> own free decisions about how to improve their life, and wish to do
> so in a free society, free of unreasonable impositions of others.
> I do not believe in no government, just limited government, in line
> with the original ideals of most of the Founding Fathers.
>
> The Democrats believe in freedom of person but intervention in how
> I make a living. Republican believe in freedom for making a living,
> but too often want to impose their social agenda. Libertarians take
> the best of both parties (and actually pushing those traits even
> further into the freedom category) and reject the worst.
>
> Ron Paul actually STANDS for something and it is not anarchy, it
> is freedom. But I can see why such freedom might be scary to those
> who think a few hundred people in a swamp on the Potomac have more
> knowledge about how I and others should run our lives than we do.
> Freedom scares some because they don't know if they can bear the
> responsibility of failure if they mess up. They want protection and
> security and the power to make others pay for their mistakes. I want
> liberty!!!]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 15:58:39 -0400 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...


On Oct 05 04:38 AM roy piper wrote:

> carey_jim, it is not true that Libertarians are anarchists. It is
> YOU who say they are. That is all. We make no such claim. I look
> at Libertarians as being those who believe people can make their
> own free decisions about how to improve their life, and wish to do
> so in a free society, free of unreasonable impositions of others.
> I do not believe in no government, just limited government, in line
> with the original ideals of most of the Founding Fathers.
>
> The Democrats believe in freedom of person but intervention in how
> I make a living. Republican believe in freedom for making a living,
> but too often want to impose their social agenda. Libertarians take
> the best of both parties (and actually pushing those traits even
> further into the freedom category) and reject the worst.
>
> Ron Paul actually STANDS for something and it is not anarchy, it
> is freedom. But I can see why such freedom might be scary to those
> who think a few hundred people in a swamp on the Potomac have more
> knowledge about how I and others should run our lives than we do.
> Freedom scares some because they don't know if they can bear the
> responsibility of failure if they mess up. They want protection and
> security and the power to make others pay for their mistakes. I want
> liberty!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164830-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-704071 704071 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 15:41:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164745-bearish-on-banks-why-now-is-the-time-to-sell?source=feed#comment-703781 703781
1. Last year, banks provided new credit at the annual pace of $472.4 billion in the first quarter and $86.7 billion in the second. This year, they're not providing ANY new credit — they're actually LIQUIDATING loans at the rate of $857.2 billion in the first quarter and $931.3 billion in the second. So if you're running a business, you may want to think twice before asking your bank for more money. Instead, they may decide to TAKE BACK the money they've already loaned you!

2. Ditto for mortgages. Last year, mortgages were being created at the annual clip of $522.5 billion and $124 billion in the first and second quarters, respectively. This year, on a net basis, mortgages haven't been created at all. Quite the contrary, the Fed reports that, on a net basis, they've been liquidated at an annual pace of $39.3 billion in the first quarter and $239.5 billion in the second.

3. The U.S. is deep in debt to the rest of the world, and on page 48, it provides the evidence: total liabilities to foreigners of $7,898,435 million (nearly $7.9 trillion)!

4. This isn't a new record. It was actually slightly more last year. But the fact is NOTHING has been done to reduce our debt to foreigners. Quite the contrary, it is the deliberate policy of our government to pile up more — to sell foreign investors and central banks on the idea that they must continue to lend us money.

www.moneyandmarkets.co...]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:04:08 -0400
1. Last year, banks provided new credit at the annual pace of $472.4 billion in the first quarter and $86.7 billion in the second. This year, they're not providing ANY new credit — they're actually LIQUIDATING loans at the rate of $857.2 billion in the first quarter and $931.3 billion in the second. So if you're running a business, you may want to think twice before asking your bank for more money. Instead, they may decide to TAKE BACK the money they've already loaned you!

2. Ditto for mortgages. Last year, mortgages were being created at the annual clip of $522.5 billion and $124 billion in the first and second quarters, respectively. This year, on a net basis, mortgages haven't been created at all. Quite the contrary, the Fed reports that, on a net basis, they've been liquidated at an annual pace of $39.3 billion in the first quarter and $239.5 billion in the second.

3. The U.S. is deep in debt to the rest of the world, and on page 48, it provides the evidence: total liabilities to foreigners of $7,898,435 million (nearly $7.9 trillion)!

4. This isn't a new record. It was actually slightly more last year. But the fact is NOTHING has been done to reduce our debt to foreigners. Quite the contrary, it is the deliberate policy of our government to pile up more — to sell foreign investors and central banks on the idea that they must continue to lend us money.

www.moneyandmarkets.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164675-shorting-the-double-dip?source=feed#comment-703725 703725 That's why doctors have been coating medicine for so long.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:27:36 -0400 That's why doctors have been coating medicine for so long.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164724-sentiment-overview-surprising-increase-in-optimism?source=feed#comment-703706 703706
I can see the rug rising off the ground. I can see the swami sitting on the rug wearing only a loin cloth.

I can't see any wires, but I'm looking for them.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:11:42 -0400
I can see the rug rising off the ground. I can see the swami sitting on the rug wearing only a loin cloth.

I can't see any wires, but I'm looking for them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164636-yet-another-finger-of-instability?source=feed#comment-703192 703192
A note on Nietzsche:

Nietzsche announced that God is dead. He didn't say that he, Nietzsche, had killed God. He simply said that he looked around and noticed that the best human beings no longer thought of God as a living concept.

When Nietzsche said that God is, in fact dead, he was saying that we can no longer believe in a set of immutable laws that govern the universe and that we human beings can no longer have the luxury of thinking that if we discover these immutable laws of God and live by them we will be saved, either individually or collectively.

He also said that from now on we human beings will have to rely on ourselves for our salvation and, what is even more profound, our salvation is not guaranteed.

He said, from now on out, there is nothing higher than man on earth.

He told us that we can rejoice over the fact that man is only a naked ape if we see him as a rope stretched over the abyss leading to an ideal man of the future, or we can despair over the fact that man is an only ape and wait for the end.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 01:00:25 -0400
A note on Nietzsche:

Nietzsche announced that God is dead. He didn't say that he, Nietzsche, had killed God. He simply said that he looked around and noticed that the best human beings no longer thought of God as a living concept.

When Nietzsche said that God is, in fact dead, he was saying that we can no longer believe in a set of immutable laws that govern the universe and that we human beings can no longer have the luxury of thinking that if we discover these immutable laws of God and live by them we will be saved, either individually or collectively.

He also said that from now on we human beings will have to rely on ourselves for our salvation and, what is even more profound, our salvation is not guaranteed.

He said, from now on out, there is nothing higher than man on earth.

He told us that we can rejoice over the fact that man is only a naked ape if we see him as a rope stretched over the abyss leading to an ideal man of the future, or we can despair over the fact that man is an only ape and wait for the end.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164609-ugly-jobs-report-puts-a-dent-in-v-shaped-recovery-scenario?source=feed#comment-703176 703176 Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:30:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164567-nbcu-deal-should-comcast-become-a-major-content-provider?source=feed#comment-703174 703174 It's a very difficult question, isn't it?]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:25:48 -0400 It's a very difficult question, isn't it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164567-nbcu-deal-should-comcast-become-a-major-content-provider?source=feed#comment-703171 703171 But who listens to me?]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:23:36 -0400 But who listens to me?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163747-3-experts-on-how-to-invest-in-markets-now?source=feed#comment-702713 702713
On average, financial "experts" don't outperform well-informed Joe Investor. In fact, only 3% of the experts were bullish in March, 2009. But the financial industry doesn't advertise the fact.

I wonder why not?

"Easy money?" Keep dreaming and listening to Merrill Lynch brokers, while the company is still solvent that is.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 14:22:57 -0400
On average, financial "experts" don't outperform well-informed Joe Investor. In fact, only 3% of the experts were bullish in March, 2009. But the financial industry doesn't advertise the fact.

I wonder why not?

"Easy money?" Keep dreaming and listening to Merrill Lynch brokers, while the company is still solvent that is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163874-the-future-of-banking?source=feed#comment-702707 702707 It was the bank panic of 1907 that eventually led to the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank during World War I.
And it was the bank panics of the early 1930's that led to such concepts as bank "insurance."
But everyone knows that if the fire is big enough and the earthquake destroys enough property, the insurance companies and ultimately the governments that stand behind them, will collapse.
The ultimate guarantor of banks is the health and solvency of the underlying economy.
The underlying American economy was a house of cards and still is.
A house of cards can't be insured. It has to be rebuilt.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 14:16:28 -0400 It was the bank panic of 1907 that eventually led to the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank during World War I.
And it was the bank panics of the early 1930's that led to such concepts as bank "insurance."
But everyone knows that if the fire is big enough and the earthquake destroys enough property, the insurance companies and ultimately the governments that stand behind them, will collapse.
The ultimate guarantor of banks is the health and solvency of the underlying economy.
The underlying American economy was a house of cards and still is.
A house of cards can't be insured. It has to be rebuilt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163502-fallen-giant-by-ron-shelp-the-uneven-history-of-aig?source=feed#comment-702686 702686
The only other serious game in town is science and technology. The less economically favored become scientists and technologists.

The rest become bean counters and bureaucrats.

Success in both science and business depends on the mysterious quality of talent wedded to energy which is sometimes called ambition.

Talent and energy are mostly inborn and to that extent mysterious to those without either or both. All that is needed an opportunity to succeed.

Biographies are all too often filled with rancorous envy, hero worship or simple fantasy and to that extent, useless. Autobiographies or even good, "honest" fiction are usually more useful.

There are many exceptions to the rule, of course, but a book reviewer needs to make us believe that he has just read one of them.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 14:01:42 -0400
The only other serious game in town is science and technology. The less economically favored become scientists and technologists.

The rest become bean counters and bureaucrats.

Success in both science and business depends on the mysterious quality of talent wedded to energy which is sometimes called ambition.

Talent and energy are mostly inborn and to that extent mysterious to those without either or both. All that is needed an opportunity to succeed.

Biographies are all too often filled with rancorous envy, hero worship or simple fantasy and to that extent, useless. Autobiographies or even good, "honest" fiction are usually more useful.

There are many exceptions to the rule, of course, but a book reviewer needs to make us believe that he has just read one of them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164590-the-economic-recovery-that-isn-t?source=feed#comment-702636 702636 As a people, we are constantly exhorted to buy to the point that we have accepted continuous intrusion into our mental lives of voices that tell us to call, to log in or just to come on down and buy with nothing down and no risk ....

We can flatten our buns, clear up our skin and/or develop superman muscles if we'll just try out the product with complete satisfaction guaranteed, or all of our money will be returned with no obligations or questions.

In the recent historical past we were also constantly exhorted, in the same way, to stop drinking, fornicating and smoking by accepting Jesus Christ as our personal savior

Before that it was the first and second Great Awakening and then, in the late 19th century, the religious fervor that developed around woman's suffrage, the Woman's Christian Temperance Union to end drinking, and the movement to end slavery.

After Americans had their brief fling with consumerism in the 1920's, the stock market plunged and religion and moral exhortation made a comeback during the Roosevelt administration.

After World War II, religion went to bed with Mammon once more and consumerism took off its clothes and once more began to dance its ass off.

Even though all of us are too young to have experienced this "other" America of our grand parents and great grandparents, its red hot coals still smolder underneath the floors on which we are still dancing our asses off.

Crazy as it sounds to most rational Americans, a new religious movement might be in our future exhorting us to Christlike material abstinence.

Economists, and especially those of the Austrian School, are exhorting us, even if their version of hell and brimstone is completely secular, But no one is listening. They also promise heaven on earth again, after a sufficient period of savings purgatory and spending abstinence.

It sounds a lot like the message Aimee Semple McPherson preached in the 1930's. A lot more people listened to her than listened to Joseph Schumpeter.

Maybe another Aimee is in our future.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 13:09:39 -0400 As a people, we are constantly exhorted to buy to the point that we have accepted continuous intrusion into our mental lives of voices that tell us to call, to log in or just to come on down and buy with nothing down and no risk ....

We can flatten our buns, clear up our skin and/or develop superman muscles if we'll just try out the product with complete satisfaction guaranteed, or all of our money will be returned with no obligations or questions.

In the recent historical past we were also constantly exhorted, in the same way, to stop drinking, fornicating and smoking by accepting Jesus Christ as our personal savior

Before that it was the first and second Great Awakening and then, in the late 19th century, the religious fervor that developed around woman's suffrage, the Woman's Christian Temperance Union to end drinking, and the movement to end slavery.

After Americans had their brief fling with consumerism in the 1920's, the stock market plunged and religion and moral exhortation made a comeback during the Roosevelt administration.

After World War II, religion went to bed with Mammon once more and consumerism took off its clothes and once more began to dance its ass off.

Even though all of us are too young to have experienced this "other" America of our grand parents and great grandparents, its red hot coals still smolder underneath the floors on which we are still dancing our asses off.

Crazy as it sounds to most rational Americans, a new religious movement might be in our future exhorting us to Christlike material abstinence.

Economists, and especially those of the Austrian School, are exhorting us, even if their version of hell and brimstone is completely secular, But no one is listening. They also promise heaven on earth again, after a sufficient period of savings purgatory and spending abstinence.

It sounds a lot like the message Aimee Semple McPherson preached in the 1930's. A lot more people listened to her than listened to Joseph Schumpeter.

Maybe another Aimee is in our future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164402-end-the-fed-author-ron-paul-s-ny-victory-lap?source=feed#comment-701412 701412 Noam Chomsky calls himself a socialist anarchist and is hated by the average man.
Ron Paul calls himself a Republican libertarian (anarchist) and he is loved by Joe Six Pack.

Whatever name you give it, anarchism is about tearing things down and replacing them with the "wisdom" of the mob and its "invisible hand."

The advocates of the (almost always violent) overthrow of everything, are usually the most mild manner people like Ron Paul.

In the video, Ron Paul, accompanied by a mob chanting "End the Fed" is almost drowned out by deafening dubbed over rock music. Ron Paul steps up to a guard at the Federal Reserve Board, carrying a book which advocates destroying the Federal Reserve Bank and says, "Hello, let me introduce myself. I'm Congressman Ron Paul. We're leaving. We just want to get a picture."

Yeah, Sure.

The guard at the Federal Reserve Bank says, "no, problem, no problem. Have a nice one."

Have a nice What?

While he was storming the Kremlin and murdering the Royal family and all of its allies, Lenin said that the Government would finally wither away under communism.

Yeah sure. Have a nice country.]]> Sat, 03 Oct 2009 12:09:13 -0400 Noam Chomsky calls himself a socialist anarchist and is hated by the average man.
Ron Paul calls himself a Republican libertarian (anarchist) and he is loved by Joe Six Pack.

Whatever name you give it, anarchism is about tearing things down and replacing them with the "wisdom" of the mob and its "invisible hand."

The advocates of the (almost always violent) overthrow of everything, are usually the most mild manner people like Ron Paul.

In the video, Ron Paul, accompanied by a mob chanting "End the Fed" is almost drowned out by deafening dubbed over rock music. Ron Paul steps up to a guard at the Federal Reserve Board, carrying a book which advocates destroying the Federal Reserve Bank and says, "Hello, let me introduce myself. I'm Congressman Ron Paul. We're leaving. We just want to get a picture."

Yeah, Sure.

The guard at the Federal Reserve Bank says, "no, problem, no problem. Have a nice one."

Have a nice What?

While he was storming the Kremlin and murdering the Royal family and all of its allies, Lenin said that the Government would finally wither away under communism.

Yeah sure. Have a nice country.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164276-get-ready-for-the-next-round-of-bailouts?source=feed#comment-700411 700411
But habit and the prospect of a long life without alcohol are too much for him and he is back drinking again.

It's an old story in life of people and civilizations.

King Louis XV (or Madame Pompadour) is reported to have said: "Après moi, le déluge," and Marie Antoinette, "Let them eat cake."

Most historians dispute the veracity of both reports but most of us get the idea.

When will the drinking stop?]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:53:17 -0400
But habit and the prospect of a long life without alcohol are too much for him and he is back drinking again.

It's an old story in life of people and civilizations.

King Louis XV (or Madame Pompadour) is reported to have said: "Après moi, le déluge," and Marie Antoinette, "Let them eat cake."

Most historians dispute the veracity of both reports but most of us get the idea.

When will the drinking stop?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164352-battery-investing-for-beginners-part-3?source=feed#comment-700376 700376 www.earlyamericanautom...

Very few people got rich buying and holding Ford, Chrysler and GM stock.

They bought Duesenberg, National, Apperson, Jewett .... instead.

Hindsight is golden and "all that glisters is not gold."]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:32:45 -0400 www.earlyamericanautom...

Very few people got rich buying and holding Ford, Chrysler and GM stock.

They bought Duesenberg, National, Apperson, Jewett .... instead.

Hindsight is golden and "all that glisters is not gold."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164276-get-ready-for-the-next-round-of-bailouts?source=feed#comment-700360 700360
The only other current inflationary pressure I can see, other than the massive spending and printing of money, is the rise in the stock market and a stirring of the still red hot coals of housing prices.

If stock markets turn deeply negative again, unemployment continues to rise or stay very high, commercial real estate begins falling sharply, housing prices start to fall again and the GDP shrinks or even stays flat then we could have strong deflationary pressure.

Think of it this way: on an island economy with 100 people, if I double the amount of money, ceteris paribus, prices will double. However, if economic activity simultaneously contracts by sixty percent then prices will fall because the velocity and number of economic transactions will more than outweigh the increase in the money supply.

The American consumer is on the ropes and is being pummeled by home foreclosures, credit card default, lack of savings, unemployment and general pessimism.

Advertising pumps consumers into hyperdrive just as caffeine and cocaine do. But once these drugs are withdrawn, a period of less activity follows until normal patterns are reestablished.

Depression and deflation are words that describe both economies and people, for the same basic reasons.]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:20:07 -0400
The only other current inflationary pressure I can see, other than the massive spending and printing of money, is the rise in the stock market and a stirring of the still red hot coals of housing prices.

If stock markets turn deeply negative again, unemployment continues to rise or stay very high, commercial real estate begins falling sharply, housing prices start to fall again and the GDP shrinks or even stays flat then we could have strong deflationary pressure.

Think of it this way: on an island economy with 100 people, if I double the amount of money, ceteris paribus, prices will double. However, if economic activity simultaneously contracts by sixty percent then prices will fall because the velocity and number of economic transactions will more than outweigh the increase in the money supply.

The American consumer is on the ropes and is being pummeled by home foreclosures, credit card default, lack of savings, unemployment and general pessimism.

Advertising pumps consumers into hyperdrive just as caffeine and cocaine do. But once these drugs are withdrawn, a period of less activity follows until normal patterns are reestablished.

Depression and deflation are words that describe both economies and people, for the same basic reasons.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164295-cit-s-failure-could-threaten-financial-sector-s-overall-recovery?source=feed#comment-699255 699255
On a more sober note, only about 3% of advisers were bullish in March, 2009. Now about 95% are bullish. What does that tell you? Their advice sounds like the screams coming from roller coaster riders to me.]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:04:19 -0400
On a more sober note, only about 3% of advisers were bullish in March, 2009. Now about 95% are bullish. What does that tell you? Their advice sounds like the screams coming from roller coaster riders to me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163724-u-s-recession-more-unemployment-sinking-dollar?source=feed#comment-698047 698047 books.google.com/books...


On Sep 29 10:19 PM pater_tenebrarum wrote:

> It absolutely does matter which economic theory one employs. Economic
> laws are not subject to whim, they are laws; either one's economic
> premises are correct, or they are not.
> Among the economic theories J. Carey has enumerated, the Austrian
> school is the only one that offers a rich enough theory of capital
> , money and credit to actually be able to cogently explain what has
> happened (and continues to happen).
> However, the Austrian theory is detrimental to the job prospects
> of economists - since it eschews all forms of intervention and central
> planning, but instead argues that the free market can not possibly
> be improved upon (a premise that is both theoretically and empirically
> sound).
> If economists are not called upon to formulate and implement grandiose
> plans, they naturally feel 'underused'.
> Also, they have found out that as soon as one provides a 'scientific
> fig leaf' for statist intervention as Lord Keynes has done, one immediately
> is showered with tax payer financed grants and jobs, and gets to
> advise the political class.
> It is therefore in the self-interest of most economists to argue
> for interventionism.
> The Federal Reserve employs a veritable horde of economists (i encourage
> everyone to randomly pick a few papers from the Fed's economic research
> department and read them - if afterwards you feel that there are
> apparently many people in the world with nothing of value to do,
> you got the right idea), the main job of whom is to produce nice
> papers completely removed from the real world that serve to absolve
> the Federal Reserve of all responsibility for inflation and the boom/bust
> cycle - in spite of the fact that this institution is the root cause
> of both.
> These people naturally, will always defend the interventionist doctrines
> that keep their jobs secure (it is quite different with other people's
> jobs, as we can see now that the inevitable bust is here).
> As a result, we are showered with economic propaganda while sound
> economic theory ends up roundly ignored in the mainstream.
> Mr. Jackson performs a valuable service by bringing such sound theory
> to a wide readership. Economics is too important a topic to be left
> solely to professional economists.]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 00:45:30 -0400 books.google.com/books...


On Sep 29 10:19 PM pater_tenebrarum wrote:

> It absolutely does matter which economic theory one employs. Economic
> laws are not subject to whim, they are laws; either one's economic
> premises are correct, or they are not.
> Among the economic theories J. Carey has enumerated, the Austrian
> school is the only one that offers a rich enough theory of capital
> , money and credit to actually be able to cogently explain what has
> happened (and continues to happen).
> However, the Austrian theory is detrimental to the job prospects
> of economists - since it eschews all forms of intervention and central
> planning, but instead argues that the free market can not possibly
> be improved upon (a premise that is both theoretically and empirically
> sound).
> If economists are not called upon to formulate and implement grandiose
> plans, they naturally feel 'underused'.
> Also, they have found out that as soon as one provides a 'scientific
> fig leaf' for statist intervention as Lord Keynes has done, one immediately
> is showered with tax payer financed grants and jobs, and gets to
> advise the political class.
> It is therefore in the self-interest of most economists to argue
> for interventionism.
> The Federal Reserve employs a veritable horde of economists (i encourage
> everyone to randomly pick a few papers from the Fed's economic research
> department and read them - if afterwards you feel that there are
> apparently many people in the world with nothing of value to do,
> you got the right idea), the main job of whom is to produce nice
> papers completely removed from the real world that serve to absolve
> the Federal Reserve of all responsibility for inflation and the boom/bust
> cycle - in spite of the fact that this institution is the root cause
> of both.
> These people naturally, will always defend the interventionist doctrines
> that keep their jobs secure (it is quite different with other people's
> jobs, as we can see now that the inevitable bust is here).
> As a result, we are showered with economic propaganda while sound
> economic theory ends up roundly ignored in the mainstream.
> Mr. Jackson performs a valuable service by bringing such sound theory
> to a wide readership. Economics is too important a topic to be left
> solely to professional economists.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164033-are-we-poised-for-another-great-bull-market?source=feed#comment-697037 697037
However, there are other more fundamental reasons that point to the truth of your conclusion. They are economic, social, political and historical reasons.

One of the funny lessons of history is that Columbus would never have set sail for America without the primitive compass that he took with him; but his compass worked so badly that he sailed hundreds of miles off course and when he finally landed in Cuba he thought he was in Japan. He was looking for a passage to the Orient and so he thought the natives might also be Indians. They've been called Indians ever since.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 13:10:57 -0400
However, there are other more fundamental reasons that point to the truth of your conclusion. They are economic, social, political and historical reasons.

One of the funny lessons of history is that Columbus would never have set sail for America without the primitive compass that he took with him; but his compass worked so badly that he sailed hundreds of miles off course and when he finally landed in Cuba he thought he was in Japan. He was looking for a passage to the Orient and so he thought the natives might also be Indians. They've been called Indians ever since.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163724-u-s-recession-more-unemployment-sinking-dollar?source=feed#comment-695823 695823
There are many theories of what "caused" the Great Depression and the monetarist (Bernanke's partial choice) is only one of them. But the debate rages on and has raged since the G.D. began.

From Wikipedia:

In a speech on Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday (November 8, 2002), Bernanke said, "Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna [Schwartz, Friedman's coauthor]: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again." Anna Schwartz however is highly critical of Bernanke and wrote an opinion piece on New York Times to advise President Obama against his reappointment to Chair of Federal Reserve. [21] Bernanke focused less on the role of the federal reserve, and more on the role of private banks and financial institutions[22]. Bernanke found that the financial disruptions of 1930-33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process; and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand, identifying an effect he called the financial accelerator. When faced with a mild downturn, banks are likely to significantly cut back lending and other risky ventures. This further hurts the economy, creating a vicious cycle and potentially turning a mild recession into a major depression.[23]

This same Wikipedia article states that Bernanke “was also an All-State saxophonist, playing in the school’s marching band.”

We know that Alan Greenspan played saxophone in a band with Stan Getz.

If anything is clear, to avoid bubbles and recessions we should prevent Jewish saxophone players from becoming head of the Federal Reserve.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:13:22 -0400
There are many theories of what "caused" the Great Depression and the monetarist (Bernanke's partial choice) is only one of them. But the debate rages on and has raged since the G.D. began.

From Wikipedia:

In a speech on Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday (November 8, 2002), Bernanke said, "Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna [Schwartz, Friedman's coauthor]: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again." Anna Schwartz however is highly critical of Bernanke and wrote an opinion piece on New York Times to advise President Obama against his reappointment to Chair of Federal Reserve. [21] Bernanke focused less on the role of the federal reserve, and more on the role of private banks and financial institutions[22]. Bernanke found that the financial disruptions of 1930-33 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process; and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand, identifying an effect he called the financial accelerator. When faced with a mild downturn, banks are likely to significantly cut back lending and other risky ventures. This further hurts the economy, creating a vicious cycle and potentially turning a mild recession into a major depression.[23]

This same Wikipedia article states that Bernanke “was also an All-State saxophonist, playing in the school’s marching band.”

We know that Alan Greenspan played saxophone in a band with Stan Getz.

If anything is clear, to avoid bubbles and recessions we should prevent Jewish saxophone players from becoming head of the Federal Reserve.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163917-housing-prices-how-much-more-downside?source=feed#comment-695537 695537

On Sep 29 11:09 AM LilBob wrote:

> I would expect housing prices to eventually fall below the rate of
> inflation. The real problem with the real estate boom was that people
> came to believe that a finished home was worth far more than the
> cost of construction. There was a seperation from reality where
> homebuyers forgot a basic rule of economics: when the attributed
> value of an asset exceeds the production cost of said asset, people
> will rush to produce more of that salable good. We are oversupplied
> with homes and given that many younger Americans no longer have access
> to the same kind of career opportunities that the Baby Boomers had
> we can expect that when the Baby Boomers do start retiring and moving
> to warmer climes or downsizing to smaller properties we will see
> another crash in suburban real estate that will take the index to
> (potentially) well below the rate of inflation.
>
> You can still make money in real estate but only if you take a dollar/sf
> approach and specialize in very small modestly priced properties.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 13:08:32 -0400

On Sep 29 11:09 AM LilBob wrote:

> I would expect housing prices to eventually fall below the rate of
> inflation. The real problem with the real estate boom was that people
> came to believe that a finished home was worth far more than the
> cost of construction. There was a seperation from reality where
> homebuyers forgot a basic rule of economics: when the attributed
> value of an asset exceeds the production cost of said asset, people
> will rush to produce more of that salable good. We are oversupplied
> with homes and given that many younger Americans no longer have access
> to the same kind of career opportunities that the Baby Boomers had
> we can expect that when the Baby Boomers do start retiring and moving
> to warmer climes or downsizing to smaller properties we will see
> another crash in suburban real estate that will take the index to
> (potentially) well below the rate of inflation.
>
> You can still make money in real estate but only if you take a dollar/sf
> approach and specialize in very small modestly priced properties.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163553-welcome-to-the-new-normal?source=feed#comment-694507 694507
Also, a lot of interesting and important data isn't reported (or at least discussed and analyzed) such as wages as a percentage of total income (stocks, bonds, real estate, capital gains, etc.)

And no one seems to be interested in various things such as the percentage of unemployed or employed illegal immigrants.

The problem of exactly WHO is counted as unemployed is rarely reported or discussed either: Prisoners, early retirees, partially handicapped, soldiers, housewives and house husbands, people over 14, 16 or 18 ....

We clearly need better and more consistent data with more variables if we are going to have more success predicting the future.]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 18:12:00 -0400
Also, a lot of interesting and important data isn't reported (or at least discussed and analyzed) such as wages as a percentage of total income (stocks, bonds, real estate, capital gains, etc.)

And no one seems to be interested in various things such as the percentage of unemployed or employed illegal immigrants.

The problem of exactly WHO is counted as unemployed is rarely reported or discussed either: Prisoners, early retirees, partially handicapped, soldiers, housewives and house husbands, people over 14, 16 or 18 ....

We clearly need better and more consistent data with more variables if we are going to have more success predicting the future.]]>