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  • Google's Whisper Number Shows Investors Lacking Confidence [View article]
    Capex is $11.0 bil. for the whole year, which is an all-time high for Google and $4 bil. higher than 2013's $7 bil. capex and $8 bil. higher than 2012's $3 bil. capex. Consequently, free cash flow is down to $7 bil. for the whole year, which is far lower than even I expected. CFO Pichette's assertions that Google is being "prudent" with spending is a ridiculous lie. And the idea that Google would ever do a buyback while its shares are trading at 50x its FCF is sheer lunacy. As I've said before, the greatest collection of Stanford, MIT, and Harvard Ph. D's, Rhodes Scholars, and Nobel Laureates is devolving into a troupe of out-of-control monkeys before our eyes. It's so bad that bringing back Schmidt would be worth it, who at least had some discipline and concept of how to run a company.
    Jan 30, 2015. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google misses by $0.20, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Capex at $11 bil. all-time high and FCF at only $7 bil. minus the $4 bil. stock-based compensation that is basically a cash expense in the form of new dilutive shares. Pichette is such a BS artist. $11 bil. Capex is "prudent"? And why would anyone even consider repatriating foreign cash to buy overvalued Google shares trading at 50x FCF??? So stupid, the guy should be fired.
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google misses by $0.20, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Samsung's mobile division made less than $2 bil. last quarter, down from $6 bil. a year ago. People just aren't buying Notes anymore when cheaper Chinese Androids offer more for less.
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: In The Smartphone Race, Samsung Has Already Lost [View article]
    Samsung must return to its low-margin roots as a component maker now and serve its master Apple. Mark is right that it takes big bucks to fund 14nm, bucks that increasingly only Apple has, though Samsung will still bear the brunt of the capex load since capital-intensive chips are again its main business.

    So you have this dynamic of component suppliers like Samsung becoming mere slaves again, but as I've said before the Android world is completely commoditized and profitless now thanks to the Chinese and the very "open" nature of Android that lets hundreds of OEMs share the OS and thus destroy pricing power for everybody since price is the only differentiator. For this reason, not only Samsung but all Android OEMs worldwide are permanently screwed. Only Apple has the profits to fund cutting-edge chips and other technology to pull away from the commoditized, profitless Android pack.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Whisper Number Shows Investors Lacking Confidence [View article]
    All eyes are on Google's Capex number, which will likely put capex over $10 bil. for the year. On all previous conference calls, Google gives an outlandish explanation for why capex must continue its unlimited ascent with no timeframe for when it may end or even what sort of ROI is ever expected. In other words, Google's capex is a black hole that now burns up all of Google's $10 bil. in profits from core search every year.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: Caught Between Apple, Samsung And A Hard Place [View article]
    You have to be pretty desperate to think that Qualcomm's loss is Intel's gain. Intel's situation overall is much worse than Qualcomm's. QCOM didn't miss mobile, but INTC is still missing by a mile. INTC's FCF has been flat for 6 years straight and will definitely fall this year due to iPhones taking even more eyeballs away from Windows PCs.
    Jan 29, 2015. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: Caught Between Apple, Samsung And A Hard Place [View article]
    Both the Snapdragon 810 and Samsung's Exnyos are defective chips not ready for prime time, but Xiaomi and Samsung have to ship phones with them anyway soon because if they don't, they'll lose even more ground to Apple. Apple really put the hurt on all its competitors with 64-bit, forcing them to obey Apple's schedule and scramble madly like the three stooges to come out with what are only rush-job, defective chips. Almost all Android apps are optimized for Snapdragon, so they won't even work properly on Samsung's Exnyos, which already has graphics rendering defects. Apple's iPhone 6 competitors in 2015 are already crippled and compromised because of these defective chips. Apple's competitors fall behind further in 2015.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google bringing Fiber to Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, Raleigh [View news story]
    thotdoc, very well said!
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel To Benefit From Economic Tailwinds [View article]
    Windows 10 = Windows 8. The horrid, nightmare-inducing tiles are back!
    Jan 28, 2015. 07:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Longer-Term Headwinds Make Blowout Quarter A Tough Act To Follow [View article]
    It'll hit $140+ in the summer. Enjoy!!!
    Jan 28, 2015. 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Longer-Term Headwinds Make Blowout Quarter A Tough Act To Follow [View article]
    Blair first started shorting Apple at $55 two summers ago.
    Jan 28, 2015. 05:02 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Longer-Term Headwinds Make Blowout Quarter A Tough Act To Follow [View article]
    Xiaomi's new phone has the Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 with the overheating problem, while Samsung's Galaxy S6 has Samsung's Exnyos chip with the graphics problem. Both these phones and any other phones that come to market with these defective chips will only spur greater iPhone 6 sales. Woohoo!!!
    Jan 28, 2015. 05:01 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    Steve Jobs predicted in a talk 30 years ago that cloud would be the future, but he said that the company with the best, most advanced "thin clients" would win that war because computing power on the local device is what determines the quality of the experience on that device, whether it's quick video rendering, gaming, or anything else that requires significant horsepower. So Apple will corner that market with those best thin clients called iPhones and iPads.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Winning The Profit Battle, Losing The Smartphone War [View article]
    As Android OEMs continue to suffer from chronic unprofitability, overall Android phone quality will take a dive, driving more of the big pool of cheap Android phone owners to switch to iPhones in droves. I've had 4 Samsung products die on me just a few months after the 1-year warranties expired, so all the cost-cutting to achieve even razor-thin margins eventually take a toll not just on quality but on longterm competitive viability.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret To Apple's Huge Quarter [View article]
    A friend of mine in China says Xiaomi is rumored to go under soon due to a plethora of patent infringement issues against it in China itself. Copying will never trump true innovation, and Chinese have not really advanced on this anymore than Koreans. It's nice for Apple to be the only truly innovative smartphone maker in the world with everyone else so bereft of originality that they have to try to copy Apple like lemmings. But Xiaomi has proved useful to Apple in accelerating the commoditization of Android OEMs and bringing down Samsung in particular. With no pricing power or profitability, it will be increasingly difficult for Android OEMs to keep up with Apple at the cutting-edge of technology, which takes deep pockets. Apple is already differentiated from Android because its deep pockets allow for acquisitions like Authentec to offer TouchID and Apple Pay that Android OEMs don't have the funds to mimic. These differences all add up over time.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:43 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment