A von Altendorf's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/191199/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/80949-oil-swings-go-beyond-fundamentals?source=feed#comment-183769 183769 Wed, 11 Jun 2008 20:11:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80766-outstanding-capital-efficiency-at-bpz-resources?source=feed#comment-183759 183759
I was pointing out the difference between reality and Monte Carlo reservoir modeling. 133 bcf 'proved' does not mean they can actually produce it. Nor does paying a six-figure fee guarantee objectivity of the consulting shop that 'certified' reserves. Science is not supposed to be a casino. I think it's an excellent idea to ask how much oil and gas BZP is producing. Not well test results. Not computer-estimated reserves. Cash money revenue.]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:56:35 -0400
I was pointing out the difference between reality and Monte Carlo reservoir modeling. 133 bcf 'proved' does not mean they can actually produce it. Nor does paying a six-figure fee guarantee objectivity of the consulting shop that 'certified' reserves. Science is not supposed to be a casino. I think it's an excellent idea to ask how much oil and gas BZP is producing. Not well test results. Not computer-estimated reserves. Cash money revenue.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80766-outstanding-capital-efficiency-at-bpz-resources?source=feed#comment-183101 183101
Amazing what folks can do with reservoir modeling, ain't it?]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 06:44:12 -0400
Amazing what folks can do with reservoir modeling, ain't it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80681-world-oil-reserves-russia-s-on-the-map?source=feed#comment-182898 182898 www.agiweb.org/geotime...

Russia indeed has the greatest potential, most of it in Western Siberia, followed by Greenland and other Arctic waters. Reservoirs in China have been wrecked, Saudi Arabia and Iran are in decline.

See also my negative research report last week on Brazil seekingalpha.com/artic...

I agree that Canada is an extremely important resource, but not oil sands, rather new oil & gas exploration in the far north and near Greenland: Cairn Energy Plc, EnCana, Husky, DONG, Chevron.]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 19:32:01 -0400 www.agiweb.org/geotime...

Russia indeed has the greatest potential, most of it in Western Siberia, followed by Greenland and other Arctic waters. Reservoirs in China have been wrecked, Saudi Arabia and Iran are in decline.

See also my negative research report last week on Brazil seekingalpha.com/artic...

I agree that Canada is an extremely important resource, but not oil sands, rather new oil & gas exploration in the far north and near Greenland: Cairn Energy Plc, EnCana, Husky, DONG, Chevron.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80535-black-gold-or-yellow-gold?source=feed#comment-182233 182233
MGMCF MGM ENERGY CORP 59318A100 ]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 01:45:34 -0400
MGMCF MGM ENERGY CORP 59318A100 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80583-what-s-behind-the-u-turn-in-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-182178 182178 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 22:21:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-180043 180043
www.bloomberg.com/apps...]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 22:40:03 -0400
www.bloomberg.com/apps...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79781-has-oil-production-reached-a-de-facto-peak?source=feed#comment-179488 179488
Well, no. Chavez fired Pedevesa's senior scientific/technical staff and replaced them with party functionaries. He nationalized foreign assets and cancelled deals with U.S. e&p consultants. Deliberate brain drain, hatred of expertise as such.

I enjoy reading your articles.]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 02:27:08 -0400
Well, no. Chavez fired Pedevesa's senior scientific/technical staff and replaced them with party functionaries. He nationalized foreign assets and cancelled deals with U.S. e&p consultants. Deliberate brain drain, hatred of expertise as such.

I enjoy reading your articles.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178924 178924 Wed, 04 Jun 2008 02:42:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178906 178906 Wed, 04 Jun 2008 01:11:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178889 178889 Tue, 03 Jun 2008 23:59:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178862 178862
The goal of an appraisal program is to learn how big a prospect is and how it might be best developed. At the moment, all we have is a Monte Carlo projection based on a single well test (as far as I know). Use of statistical probability models in the oil industry is an pandemic mental illness. I recently attended a presentation by a statistics expert who said you could throw 21 darts at the continent of Africa and have a 95% chance of finding oil, without looking at geological provinces. That's how Petrobras and ANP came up with their new reserves guesstimates, using a statistical model. Nothing unusual about it, everybody in the industry does it, except geologists, geochemists, and geophysicists. Science is not a dice roll, nor 21 dice rolls based on arbitrary inputs.

The geological question is highly technical. My skepticism is based on Petrobras' published data. The BM-S-11 Tupi well found pay in "heterogeneous layered carbonates, variable reservoir quality." What they were expecting however was a pre-rift sandstone or trapped accumulation directly under the salt pillow. Like I said, it's a technical question with a lot of tangents and implications. But I take Petrobras at their word, and they reported that Tupi discovery is mostly gas (double the GOR of Ghawar).

This is okay for PBR. They need gas and are planning to build a 300km pipeline for domestic supply. It doesn't have to make financial sense.]]> Tue, 03 Jun 2008 21:53:55 -0400
The goal of an appraisal program is to learn how big a prospect is and how it might be best developed. At the moment, all we have is a Monte Carlo projection based on a single well test (as far as I know). Use of statistical probability models in the oil industry is an pandemic mental illness. I recently attended a presentation by a statistics expert who said you could throw 21 darts at the continent of Africa and have a 95% chance of finding oil, without looking at geological provinces. That's how Petrobras and ANP came up with their new reserves guesstimates, using a statistical model. Nothing unusual about it, everybody in the industry does it, except geologists, geochemists, and geophysicists. Science is not a dice roll, nor 21 dice rolls based on arbitrary inputs.

The geological question is highly technical. My skepticism is based on Petrobras' published data. The BM-S-11 Tupi well found pay in "heterogeneous layered carbonates, variable reservoir quality." What they were expecting however was a pre-rift sandstone or trapped accumulation directly under the salt pillow. Like I said, it's a technical question with a lot of tangents and implications. But I take Petrobras at their word, and they reported that Tupi discovery is mostly gas (double the GOR of Ghawar).

This is okay for PBR. They need gas and are planning to build a 300km pipeline for domestic supply. It doesn't have to make financial sense.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178433 178433
"Although the Bratz are breathing down her neck, Barbie still has plenty of life in her, with overall sales expected to increase this year. In November, Mattel launched My Scene, an extension of the Barbie line whose characters are dressed suspiciously like those street-savvy Bratz."

First it's a puff piece on Mattel, then a smiley face for PBR. All knuckles and know-how, when you're *an american published (very well known unbiased) investigative reporter at BWEEK*

A colleague advised me not to engage the trolls, just ignore them, which is always good advice. However, I'm here in case anyone wants to talk more about the geology of the Santos basin.]]> Tue, 03 Jun 2008 08:52:15 -0400
"Although the Bratz are breathing down her neck, Barbie still has plenty of life in her, with overall sales expected to increase this year. In November, Mattel launched My Scene, an extension of the Barbie line whose characters are dressed suspiciously like those street-savvy Bratz."

First it's a puff piece on Mattel, then a smiley face for PBR. All knuckles and know-how, when you're *an american published (very well known unbiased) investigative reporter at BWEEK*

A colleague advised me not to engage the trolls, just ignore them, which is always good advice. However, I'm here in case anyone wants to talk more about the geology of the Santos basin.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178339 178339
Petrobras has to find new reserves. I estimate they have 6-7 years recoverable (at 2 million boe per day) in Campos, no meaningful opportunities onshore. That's why PBR went on a shopping spree for deepwater rigs, and I think they plan on funding exploration with a bond issue, since they have a slightly negative cash flow. Most brokers and bankers call PBR a safe bet. I'm sure they'll get whatever cash they need.

BTW, mag and grav tell us basically nothing.]]> Tue, 03 Jun 2008 01:43:19 -0400
Petrobras has to find new reserves. I estimate they have 6-7 years recoverable (at 2 million boe per day) in Campos, no meaningful opportunities onshore. That's why PBR went on a shopping spree for deepwater rigs, and I think they plan on funding exploration with a bond issue, since they have a slightly negative cash flow. Most brokers and bankers call PBR a safe bet. I'm sure they'll get whatever cash they need.

BTW, mag and grav tell us basically nothing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178248 178248 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 19:56:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-178231 178231 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 19:10:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-177999 177999 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:15:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-177966 177966 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 11:30:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-177791 177791 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 07:31:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued?source=feed#comment-177739 177739 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 02:24:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79269-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-175819 175819 Thu, 29 May 2008 08:19:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78616-is-oil-a-bubble-part-one?source=feed#comment-173119 173119
Uh, no. Price is not important. Recoverable reserves are what matter, and after that political, legal, and regulatory hurdles. Most of the world's recoverable reserves are in the hands of dictators and bureaucrats, in a word: morons who do not understand where oil and gas come from or what it takes to find it, produce it, refine it and transport it. The integrated majors (Exxon, BP, Shell) are in worse trouble than you realize. They added reserves by M&A, not new recoverable discoveries.

OPEC can't increase production. They're having a hard time hiring skilled people, and there are petrophysical limits to production in mature, declining fields including Ghawar. I wouldn't be surprised if Pedevesa went offline in an explosion, since Chavez fired the entire professional staff and replaced them with morons.

I think it's a chumps game to speculate in oil, despite the fact that world supply is declining and demand is elastic. It is especially dumb to invest in PBR.]]> Sat, 24 May 2008 08:38:46 -0400
Uh, no. Price is not important. Recoverable reserves are what matter, and after that political, legal, and regulatory hurdles. Most of the world's recoverable reserves are in the hands of dictators and bureaucrats, in a word: morons who do not understand where oil and gas come from or what it takes to find it, produce it, refine it and transport it. The integrated majors (Exxon, BP, Shell) are in worse trouble than you realize. They added reserves by M&A, not new recoverable discoveries.

OPEC can't increase production. They're having a hard time hiring skilled people, and there are petrophysical limits to production in mature, declining fields including Ghawar. I wouldn't be surprised if Pedevesa went offline in an explosion, since Chavez fired the entire professional staff and replaced them with morons.

I think it's a chumps game to speculate in oil, despite the fact that world supply is declining and demand is elastic. It is especially dumb to invest in PBR.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76446-g-7-central-bankers-stymied-by-crude-oil-vigilantes?source=feed#comment-164696 164696 Fri, 09 May 2008 08:29:27 -0400