A von Altendorf

Oil Swings Go Beyond Fundamentals

War risk is $30 or more. Big swings are reaction to news, rumors.

World Oil Reserves: Russia's on the Map

Estimates of reserves are based on USGS survey ccompleted in 2000, a better graphic and explanatory text available here:
www.agiweb.org/geotime...

Russia indeed has the greatest potential, most of it in Western Siberia, followed by Greenland and other Arctic waters. Reservoirs in China have been wrecked, Saudi Arabia and Iran are in decline.

See also my negative research report last week on Brazil seekingalpha.com/artic...

I agree that Canada is an extremely important resource, but not oil sands, rather new oil & gas exploration in the far north and near Greenland: Cairn Energy Plc, EnCana, Husky, DONG, Chevron.

What's Behind the U-Turn in Oil Prices?

Jim, I doubt Saudi Aramco has any spare capacity. You're on the right track when you talk about war risk. Ask yourself if Russia would like to be a monopoly exporter? That's what shutting off the ME means. And it would certainly screw the Americans.

Has Oil Production Reached a 'De Facto' Peak?

"some countries, like Venezuela, could be feigning incompetence"

Well, no. Chavez fired Pedevesa's senior scientific/technical staff and replaced them with party functionaries. He nationalized foreign assets and cancelled deals with U.S. e&p consultants. Deliberate brain drain, hatred of expertise as such.

I enjoy reading your articles.