farmer448

Chart of the Week: Trend In Cash Holdings Beginning to Shift?

And don't forget fourth quarter tax payments are due....

5 Pressures on the Semiconductor Market

As you point out 70% of semis is fixed costs. So if I push the cost curve down more applications for memory become profitable.

When I was involved in my first major machine purchase in 1979 256K of memeory was almost 50,000.00.

Today you carry around a memory stick, you use it in your digital cameras, your IPOD/MPS players ect.

The investments have been made, the question is when will the innovators (SSD Drives ect) bring the demand back up. In my experience this has taken about a year.

So find the best in class. And build your preferred list. This is time to look at this sector as an investor and not as a trader.

An Alternative to the Trillion Dollar Deficit

This is more of trying to treat the symptoms.

The residential real estate market was overbuilt due to speculators and poor underwriting. This was the trigger not the cause of the current recession.

So we have a lot of homes/condos/strip malls that were built based on phantom demand. We have even lower demand from 2 years ago due to loss of JOBS. No work no home.

So we are now working out way down the demand curve to find the true demand. Will we overshoot to where supply will be the constraint.

In the above solution, we are trying to build some more phantom demand by artificially lowering interest rates.

Sorry folks, as in the S&L crisis of the 1980s we are going to have to let real estate find its new equalibrium point. The sooner this happens the better the foundation for real estate going forward in the future.

Here in Houston it took the better part of 3 years, so we are about half way down the path of this correction.

It is time to look long term as short term is going to be a rcoky and bumpy road. For investors, that means looking for where the growth will be as we work our way out the fine mess we find ourselves in.

Corporate America's Unhealthy Love for Buybacks and Dividends

But you needed stock buy backs so the options granted to management did not cause share dilution.

This is just another problem generated when finance/accountants run companies. Many actions are taken that only help the books one time but complicate a business.

Maybe Finance and Accounting courses should teach the KISS principal.

How the Government Should Manage GM and Chrysler

I don't know whos on first or second or third in this argument. The only thing that makes sense to me is the Directors and the Top Management should personally guarentee the loans. It is time they put real skin into the game.

The UAW skin is they will lose jobs.

The only issue I never see addressed is the outdated dealer issue. We just had an expose here in Houston where finance officers were getting kickbacks for the dealership.

Unfortunatly we have a lot of political chiefs and not enough leaders in the top ranks of the auto companies.

PS Chrysler is run by bean counters. I would write it off.

Government's Ponzi Scheme: 1000 Times Worse than Madoff's

So I guess all insurance is a Ponzi scheme. CDO's derivatives life insurance fire insurance annuities yada yada yada.

But then regulation and reporting is supposed to make exposure (risk) of these vehicles visible to all.

Even for the Free Markets invisible hand to work effectively, information should be readily available so all may evaluate risk. Information monopolies are the root of the problem. Why? You cannot hide it forever. Once hidden, when revealed, wild reactions to the new information is exposed.

So the whining about government Ponzi is barnyard manure. Please help working to how to provide better and more complete information about transactions in the financial markets.

Goldman's Wonky Oil Predictions: What Gives?

Bubbles bubbles and more bubbles. If an analyst was true, they would have looked at the oil bubble in the early 70's and concluded their was no way oil would go to 200.

The theory then was oil pricing was inelastic. Then low and behold, inelastic became sticky and the price of oil dived. Japanese cars became mainstream in the US market due to mileage.

Same thing when the Southeast Asian crisis hit and demand fell.

Conclusion: Goldman analysts were pumping oil and probably making a tom of money off it.

Citigroup: Too Big to Fail or Succeed

I find it hard to invest in such a poorly managed company.

Why I Need a Government Bailout

Dear Newman Bank

Your request for 2-3 million was adjusted to 300 million.

Happy New Year
Henry

Deflation Is Just Around the Corner

Deflation is everywhere. Stocks, home prices, Commodities, Confidence in out government.

Thain's Bonus

Mr. Thain,

You have no style.

The Problem With the Citi Bailout

So how does Citigroup buy a Spanish Outfit?

A carmaker collapse could send the economy spiraling into a depression, Chrysler VC Jim Press says. "If we have a catastrophic failure of one of these car companies, in this tender environment for the economy, it's a huge blow."

Funny the Yahoo survey showed NO BAILOUT ahead.

Face it folks, Detroit wil shrink by 30-50%. So why are we throwing money at the companies. Maybe it is time to support the workers and their search for work in industries that know what they are doing.

Rubin's Teflon Finally Wears Off

Ah yes, it seems a classic reaction to Wall Streets responsibilities. Rubins, not my job defense makes me wonder what was his job, Leadership Mr. Rubin means, "The buck stops here". You and your fellow directors failed at your jobs. At least have the stones to take responsibility for it.

GM Must Die

So to all those who say unemployment is the reason to bailout the auto industry I ask you this:

If consumers are not buying cars (see latest sales declines) how is a bailout going to increase sales?

Without increased sales the unemployment rate in the auto industry are the everyday white collar/bluse collar workers going get laid off anyway?

So how will the bailout help the auto-industry to restructure? This is not like the Chrysler bailout. It involves the whole US auto industry not just one Company.

So the US Auto Industry is going to shrink like it or not. So how can government best help in realigning the workforce that is no longer needed?

In my graduate Economics course the first and most impotant lesson we were taught is TINSTAAFL. "Three Is No Such Thing As A Free Lunch".
Much of the argument I have heard is pure hype and not backed up by data. The US auto industry has been in decline and while the medicine is harsh maybe it is time to restructure.