The only problem with the analysis is we have things like TIPS and cost of living adjustments. People forget that in the inflation of 1973 through 1980 the middle class was again hosed. Thus the use of inflation as a hidden tax was greatly reduced.
Congress has a lot of tough issues on its plate. It is time for the electorate to force congress to act or do not re-elect them.
So if I understand you, this means we should be increasing interest rates. In order to remove excess capacity, the profitability of a project must be raised.
To me there is two ways to do this. Raise interest rates or Raise corporate Tax rates. So if these are not politically feasible in today's climate, what is the alternative?
An Alternative to the Trillion Dollar Deficit [View article]
This is more of trying to treat the symptoms.
The residential real estate market was overbuilt due to speculators and poor underwriting. This was the trigger not the cause of the current recession.
So we have a lot of homes/condos/strip malls that were built based on phantom demand. We have even lower demand from 2 years ago due to loss of JOBS. No work no home.
So we are now working out way down the demand curve to find the true demand. Will we overshoot to where supply will be the constraint.
In the above solution, we are trying to build some more phantom demand by artificially lowering interest rates.
Sorry folks, as in the S&L crisis of the 1980s we are going to have to let real estate find its new equalibrium point. The sooner this happens the better the foundation for real estate going forward in the future.
Here in Houston it took the better part of 3 years, so we are about half way down the path of this correction.
It is time to look long term as short term is going to be a rcoky and bumpy road. For investors, that means looking for where the growth will be as we work our way out the fine mess we find ourselves in.
Government's Ponzi Scheme: 1000 Times Worse than Madoff's [View article]
So I guess all insurance is a Ponzi scheme. CDO's derivatives life insurance fire insurance annuities yada yada yada.
But then regulation and reporting is supposed to make exposure (risk) of these vehicles visible to all.
Even for the Free Markets invisible hand to work effectively, information should be readily available so all may evaluate risk. Information monopolies are the root of the problem. Why? You cannot hide it forever. Once hidden, when revealed, wild reactions to the new information is exposed.
So the whining about government Ponzi is barnyard manure. Please help working to how to provide better and more complete information about transactions in the financial markets.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Citigroup and Wachovia the two ethical banks. So Wachovia made an agreement with Wells Fargo. No Problem, Managements in banks do not have to keep their word. Another reason to doubt the credibility of Wall Street and to realize, Agreements between Mnagements are just so much toilet paper.
No Wonder the $700 Billion Bailout 'Deal' Failed [View article]
For you older folk I liken Paulson to Bullwinkle the Moose. Bullwinkle would be on stage as a Magician and say "Watch me pull a rabbit out of the Hat". And Bang out would pop a lions head.
This whole charade is nothing but misdirection with the results being unpredictable, and probably just as bad if not worse then the course we are on now.
If the credit markets are seizing, which credit markets. Short term financing (30-90 days)? Intermediate term (3-6 years), or long term?
If you don't have the data as to what is wrong, then how in the world are you to craft an appropriate solution? Washington has a huge "Credibility Gap" with the public and they are not helping matters here. The perception (right or wrong) is throw money at Wall Street.
In my experience, throwing money at a problem very rarely solves the problem.
The Fannie/Freddie Bailout: Consequences to the U.S. Taxpayer [View article]
Hey whats a few hundred billion added to the 10 trillion of national debt.
Laissez-faire policies screwed us in the 1920's, in the savings and loan debacle of 1985 and now for the first economic screwup of th 22d century. Regulation is setting the rules that economic players must adhere to. Checks and balances in our society keep it from going off track. Lately both Governmental and Economic Checks and Balances have been eliminated by the "True Believers" leaving the practical practitioners twisting in the wind.
So how do you like the new Casino called Wall Street. You cannot trust what anyone says anymore.
Bracing for Another Round of Credit Related Woes [View article]
You want to look at a similar time, look at the runup to th 72 elections where the fed pumped the economy. Commodities were inflationary and stagflation was born as a term. I believe while studying the oracles bones that this will not be a short recession.
Of course it always helps when you jigger the numbers to make your supposed inflation outcomes look better.
The numbers are supposed to give policy makers the information they need about the economy to make good decisions.
So throwing out energy costs has had the effect of allowing imported energy to become to important to our economies success. In the microeconomic sense it is like being captured by your sole supplier of critical components
And golly gee fed folks how hard is it to track median home costs to median income. So what could it possibly mean that the median home costs move from 2.5/3 to more than 5 times median income. (especially when your talking credit/pricing/ inflation)
So get out of your models and your office, and walk around in the economy you are trying to manage
Shorts Running from the SEC? [View article]
Yesterday's 134,692,347 share volume was 99.59% of all shares.
Today's 130,678,636 share volume was 96.62% of all shares
For a two day turnover percentage of 196.21%.
Calling the SEC, Calling the SEC are you answering the phone?
Putting Deficits into Perspective [View article]
Congress has a lot of tough issues on its plate. It is time for the electorate to force congress to act or do not re-elect them.
What Leads to Market Bottoms? [View article]
The most important thing that happened after 9/11 is the FAA mandated the locking of cockpit doors.
The last time this happened was in the 1970s when the PLO was hijacking. And as Gomer Pyle used to say, Surprise Surprise the hijacking stop.
Yes searching at a gate is important, but the Theater of the TSA searching is gone to the absurd.
So when you are thinking about terrorism, how do you keep hijackers out of the cockpit of Planes, Trucks and Trains....
Friday Market Recap [View article]
The Four Percent Solution [View article]
To me there is two ways to do this. Raise interest rates or Raise corporate Tax rates. So if these are not politically feasible in today's climate, what is the alternative?
An Alternative to the Trillion Dollar Deficit [View article]
The residential real estate market was overbuilt due to speculators and poor underwriting. This was the trigger not the cause of the current recession.
So we have a lot of homes/condos/strip malls that were built based on phantom demand. We have even lower demand from 2 years ago due to loss of JOBS. No work no home.
So we are now working out way down the demand curve to find the true demand. Will we overshoot to where supply will be the constraint.
In the above solution, we are trying to build some more phantom demand by artificially lowering interest rates.
Sorry folks, as in the S&L crisis of the 1980s we are going to have to let real estate find its new equalibrium point. The sooner this happens the better the foundation for real estate going forward in the future.
Here in Houston it took the better part of 3 years, so we are about half way down the path of this correction.
It is time to look long term as short term is going to be a rcoky and bumpy road. For investors, that means looking for where the growth will be as we work our way out the fine mess we find ourselves in.
Government's Ponzi Scheme: 1000 Times Worse than Madoff's [View article]
But then regulation and reporting is supposed to make exposure (risk) of these vehicles visible to all.
Even for the Free Markets invisible hand to work effectively, information should be readily available so all may evaluate risk. Information monopolies are the root of the problem. Why? You cannot hide it forever. Once hidden, when revealed, wild reactions to the new information is exposed.
So the whining about government Ponzi is barnyard manure. Please help working to how to provide better and more complete information about transactions in the financial markets.
Deflation Is Just Around the Corner [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
No Wonder the $700 Billion Bailout 'Deal' Failed [View article]
This whole charade is nothing but misdirection with the results being unpredictable, and probably just as bad if not worse then the course we are on now.
If the credit markets are seizing, which credit markets. Short term financing (30-90 days)? Intermediate term (3-6 years), or long term?
If you don't have the data as to what is wrong, then how in the world are you to craft an appropriate solution? Washington has a huge "Credibility Gap" with the public and they are not helping matters here. The perception (right or wrong) is throw money at Wall Street.
In my experience, throwing money at a problem very rarely solves the problem.
The Fannie/Freddie Bailout: Consequences to the U.S. Taxpayer [View article]
Laissez-faire policies screwed us in the 1920's, in the savings and loan debacle of 1985 and now for the first economic screwup of th 22d century. Regulation is setting the rules that economic players must adhere to. Checks and balances in our society keep it from going off track. Lately both Governmental and Economic Checks and Balances have been eliminated by the "True Believers" leaving the practical practitioners twisting in the wind.
So how do you like the new Casino called Wall Street. You cannot trust what anyone says anymore.
Bracing for Another Round of Credit Related Woes [View article]
Why Core Inflation? [View article]
The numbers are supposed to give policy makers the information they need about the economy to make good decisions.
So throwing out energy costs has had the effect of allowing imported energy to become to important to our economies success. In the microeconomic sense it is like being captured by your sole supplier of critical components
And golly gee fed folks how hard is it to track median home costs to median income. So what could it possibly mean that the median home costs move from 2.5/3 to more than 5 times median income. (especially when your talking credit/pricing/ inflation)
So get out of your models and your office, and walk around in the economy you are trying to manage
Weekly Street Sentiment: The Fed Never Got Gramm’s Memo [View article]
PPI: the Numbers behind the Numbers [View article]