Panskeptic's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/19134/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/82829-gaining-global-exposure-international-etf-dividend-investing?source=feed#comment-194605 194605 Sat, 28 Jun 2008 01:21:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82992-is-the-oil-index-set-to-fall?source=feed#comment-194602 194602
I'm glad these commodity ETFs are there, we don't need to be protected from them, they've been good to me. But don't try to do it just on charts - you really need to understand seasonality, supply and demand factors and a fairly exotic brand of headline risk.

Commodity ETFs may trade as stocks, but they're not stocks, and the investor will get spanked repeatedly until the lesson takes.]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 00:51:25 -0400
I'm glad these commodity ETFs are there, we don't need to be protected from them, they've been good to me. But don't try to do it just on charts - you really need to understand seasonality, supply and demand factors and a fairly exotic brand of headline risk.

Commodity ETFs may trade as stocks, but they're not stocks, and the investor will get spanked repeatedly until the lesson takes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82965-commodity-and-bond-etfs-stuff-and-safety-beating-stocks?source=feed#comment-194598 194598
It's like when somebody says "You can't time the market," what they're really saying is "I can't time the market."

Do what you can. If you can't do something, do something else.]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 00:39:42 -0400
It's like when somebody says "You can't time the market," what they're really saying is "I can't time the market."

Do what you can. If you can't do something, do something else.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82741-do-new-commodity-etfs-signal-a-top?source=feed#comment-193187 193187 Thu, 26 Jun 2008 09:32:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82219-the-problem-with-designer-etfs?source=feed#comment-190355 190355
"A process based on the full set of information and constantly informed and updated by skilled human judgment."

Is he kidding? A cuddlesome dogma, but demonstrably false. How about intellectual laziness, herd mentality and fear of independent thought? Is Mr. Siegel against the American Revolution because George III was anointed by God to be our leader? That orthodoxy makes just as much sense.

"A full set of information?" Then how come everybody was blindsided by Bear Stearns?
Yeah, right. That's the kind of thinking that got us into this mess.

"Market cap is a function of democracy?" What addlepated nonsense! Market cap is a function of market cap, and there's more than one path to stock market Nirvana. It's Mr. Siegel's kind of chanting blind, lemming-like sloganeering that gives economics a bad name.

This article belongs on a religious or archeological website, because on a scientific basis it's dead, over, obsolete, extinct, kaput.]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:11:29 -0400
"A process based on the full set of information and constantly informed and updated by skilled human judgment."

Is he kidding? A cuddlesome dogma, but demonstrably false. How about intellectual laziness, herd mentality and fear of independent thought? Is Mr. Siegel against the American Revolution because George III was anointed by God to be our leader? That orthodoxy makes just as much sense.

"A full set of information?" Then how come everybody was blindsided by Bear Stearns?
Yeah, right. That's the kind of thinking that got us into this mess.

"Market cap is a function of democracy?" What addlepated nonsense! Market cap is a function of market cap, and there's more than one path to stock market Nirvana. It's Mr. Siegel's kind of chanting blind, lemming-like sloganeering that gives economics a bad name.

This article belongs on a religious or archeological website, because on a scientific basis it's dead, over, obsolete, extinct, kaput.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81919-etf-update-financial-etfs-energy-exploration-and-etfs?source=feed#comment-188911 188911
And if you started tomorrow on offshore oil, it wouldn't hit the market till 2030, and at present consumption rates, we'd use it up in 2 1/2 years. This theater is just to pacify the oil guys who go nuts whenever you say, "Sorry, you can't drill there. No, it's the Washington Monument, you can't put a rig there. No. You can't." And Texas oil guys go "Whaaaaaaaaaaa!!!"

Tom, you're spending too much time with Fox Noise. All that happy talk is bad for your judgment.]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 03:33:22 -0400
And if you started tomorrow on offshore oil, it wouldn't hit the market till 2030, and at present consumption rates, we'd use it up in 2 1/2 years. This theater is just to pacify the oil guys who go nuts whenever you say, "Sorry, you can't drill there. No, it's the Washington Monument, you can't put a rig there. No. You can't." And Texas oil guys go "Whaaaaaaaaaaa!!!"

Tom, you're spending too much time with Fox Noise. All that happy talk is bad for your judgment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81851-why-have-most-investment-advisers-been-slow-to-adopt-etfs?source=feed#comment-188907 188907 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 03:07:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81428-passive-investing-wisdom-from-taylor-larimore?source=feed#comment-186399 186399
"Mr. (John) Bogle has stated that he never met anyone who can time the stock market successfully and consistently."

I'm sorry he's never met George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Julian Robertson or any other of several hundred private investors and hedge fund managers who have done just that. Mr. Bogle should get out more.

Even people who say they don't market time, like Warren Buffett, wind up timing their entries and exits anyway.

Mr. Larimore's quasi-religious claptrap is utterly useless. Blind repetition of slogans doesn't make them true, but I suppose if you don't want to worship a tree or a rock, you can worship Mr. Bogle instead. And Mr. Malkiel's orthodoxy has a tough time explaining exactly what happened in the markets this year. "Random" it was not, and hasn't been for a long time.

For a 25 year period not so long ago, the markets had virtually zero return. We're just coming out of what many are calling "A Lost Decade." If you've got 10 or more investing years to waste doing nothing while the market vainly searches for a trend, good for you, but those of us with realistic actuarial estimates aren't limited to passive buy-and-die. "Stay the course" as a piece of advice has a well-deserved reputation of being utterly disastrous.

Do many people overtrade? Sure, without a doubt. Is this particular set of mantras a recipe for success? Hell, no.

P.S. The astronomical turnover in Cubes comes from institutional investors, the ones Jack Bogle has never met, not from individual white-shoe'd retirees in Florida.]]> Mon, 16 Jun 2008 10:53:14 -0400
"Mr. (John) Bogle has stated that he never met anyone who can time the stock market successfully and consistently."

I'm sorry he's never met George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Julian Robertson or any other of several hundred private investors and hedge fund managers who have done just that. Mr. Bogle should get out more.

Even people who say they don't market time, like Warren Buffett, wind up timing their entries and exits anyway.

Mr. Larimore's quasi-religious claptrap is utterly useless. Blind repetition of slogans doesn't make them true, but I suppose if you don't want to worship a tree or a rock, you can worship Mr. Bogle instead. And Mr. Malkiel's orthodoxy has a tough time explaining exactly what happened in the markets this year. "Random" it was not, and hasn't been for a long time.

For a 25 year period not so long ago, the markets had virtually zero return. We're just coming out of what many are calling "A Lost Decade." If you've got 10 or more investing years to waste doing nothing while the market vainly searches for a trend, good for you, but those of us with realistic actuarial estimates aren't limited to passive buy-and-die. "Stay the course" as a piece of advice has a well-deserved reputation of being utterly disastrous.

Do many people overtrade? Sure, without a doubt. Is this particular set of mantras a recipe for success? Hell, no.

P.S. The astronomical turnover in Cubes comes from institutional investors, the ones Jack Bogle has never met, not from individual white-shoe'd retirees in Florida.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81464-ukraine-overlooked-yet-a-promising-emerging-market?source=feed#comment-186382 186382 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 10:29:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80554-constructing-a-portfolio-from-the-top-down?source=feed#comment-181972 181972 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 14:16:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79979-are-subsistence-wages-killing-the-us?source=feed#comment-178921 178921
In fact, the real villains of the piece are Reagan and Friedman and Greenspan, who presided over a massive redistribution of wealth upwards. The numbers are irrefutable: a small clique of oligarchs at the top of our pyramid hold ever-increasing wealth subsidized by transfers from below. As long as we narcotize ourselves with economic royalism and false, meaningless slogans like "the magic of the market," we'll be unable to do anything at all for the majority of Americans whose prospects are diminishing day by day.

The Golden Rule is "them's with the gold, makes the rules," and I for one am disgusted with their whining, faulty judgment and irresponsibility.]]> Wed, 04 Jun 2008 02:22:03 -0400
In fact, the real villains of the piece are Reagan and Friedman and Greenspan, who presided over a massive redistribution of wealth upwards. The numbers are irrefutable: a small clique of oligarchs at the top of our pyramid hold ever-increasing wealth subsidized by transfers from below. As long as we narcotize ourselves with economic royalism and false, meaningless slogans like "the magic of the market," we'll be unable to do anything at all for the majority of Americans whose prospects are diminishing day by day.

The Golden Rule is "them's with the gold, makes the rules," and I for one am disgusted with their whining, faulty judgment and irresponsibility.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79478-powershares-water-etf-lacks-focus?source=feed#comment-176643 176643 Fri, 30 May 2008 09:58:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79035-short-bond-etfs-get-short-shrift?source=feed#comment-174894 174894 Tue, 27 May 2008 23:11:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78250-powershares-latest-concept-etfs-of-etfs?source=feed#comment-173780 173780 Sun, 25 May 2008 21:30:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78736-pto-how-will-it-perform?source=feed#comment-173550 173550 Sun, 25 May 2008 12:13:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78606-america-s-energy-policy-coming-to-terms-with-reality?source=feed#comment-172459 172459
I find it equally risible when Washington bloviators parrot Ronald Reagan and Milton Friedman slogans that have proven just as untrue, irrelevant and off-the-wall. I love "the magic of the market" that gave us Enron, LTCM and Bear Stearns. But I guess we'll hear about that brainless silliness in Mr. Picerno's next post.]]> Fri, 23 May 2008 08:07:03 -0400
I find it equally risible when Washington bloviators parrot Ronald Reagan and Milton Friedman slogans that have proven just as untrue, irrelevant and off-the-wall. I love "the magic of the market" that gave us Enron, LTCM and Bear Stearns. But I guess we'll hear about that brainless silliness in Mr. Picerno's next post.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78616-is-oil-a-bubble-part-one?source=feed#comment-172453 172453
1) When people discuss commodity supply/demand, they always mean within the U.S. until they get reminded that there's other people out there.

2) Commodities and commodity ETFs are expected to behave like stocks, and chart overlays are produced all the time reinforcing this misconception. Stock mavens new to commodities have real trouble recognizing the differences.

And BTW, no farmer gets executive compensation like the heads of oil companies. So discussion of a windfall-profits tax for the ag sector is not in the cards. But a wpt for Big Oil does not offend my theology.]]> Fri, 23 May 2008 07:56:40 -0400
1) When people discuss commodity supply/demand, they always mean within the U.S. until they get reminded that there's other people out there.

2) Commodities and commodity ETFs are expected to behave like stocks, and chart overlays are produced all the time reinforcing this misconception. Stock mavens new to commodities have real trouble recognizing the differences.

And BTW, no farmer gets executive compensation like the heads of oil companies. So discussion of a windfall-profits tax for the ag sector is not in the cards. But a wpt for Big Oil does not offend my theology.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78425-will-dividend-etfs-be-crushed-by-an-obama-presidency?source=feed#comment-171794 171794
What is most likely to happen is that the favorable tax treatment of dividends will be capped, so that small fry will be completely protected and only the biggest players will have to face a higher rate, which is as it should be. It is not the government's role to protect the rich from everybody else, though Bush preaches otherwise. ]]> Thu, 22 May 2008 11:11:29 -0400
What is most likely to happen is that the favorable tax treatment of dividends will be capped, so that small fry will be completely protected and only the biggest players will have to face a higher rate, which is as it should be. It is not the government's role to protect the rich from everybody else, though Bush preaches otherwise. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77384-state-street-s-international-small-cap-etf-crawling-spdr-with-potential?source=feed#comment-168388 168388
You know, it's not a bad thing that a politician with money concerns him- or herself with the least fortunate. Must they be selfish and only defend their class? Comfort the comfortable and afflict the afflicted? Or are they allowed to actually figure out how to help children, seniors, folks who are being kept down so a small handful of well-connected bastards can prosper? The idea that you can only defend those in your own tax bracket is poisonous, and is wrecking this country.

I'd rather have Big Brother helping the helpless than giving our tax dollars to the top 1%. It's called reverse wealth transfer, and we've surely had too much of that.

If Smicklas doesn't want us discussing this stuff, he should have omitted his coy preamble and just written about the ETF. I presume he'll be more careful in future. This year may not be the best time to invest in European small/midcaps. I'd sure place a bid way under where it's trading right now.]]> Thu, 15 May 2008 18:00:06 -0400
You know, it's not a bad thing that a politician with money concerns him- or herself with the least fortunate. Must they be selfish and only defend their class? Comfort the comfortable and afflict the afflicted? Or are they allowed to actually figure out how to help children, seniors, folks who are being kept down so a small handful of well-connected bastards can prosper? The idea that you can only defend those in your own tax bracket is poisonous, and is wrecking this country.

I'd rather have Big Brother helping the helpless than giving our tax dollars to the top 1%. It's called reverse wealth transfer, and we've surely had too much of that.

If Smicklas doesn't want us discussing this stuff, he should have omitted his coy preamble and just written about the ETF. I presume he'll be more careful in future. This year may not be the best time to invest in European small/midcaps. I'd sure place a bid way under where it's trading right now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77384-state-street-s-international-small-cap-etf-crawling-spdr-with-potential?source=feed#comment-168111 168111 Astute minds, my foot. What kind of silliness is this?

Yes, there are other people in the world that may occasionally impinge on one's own narrow greed, but we are not alone in our countinghouse, and our cultural heritage implies that we are to a degree our brother's keeper.

The New Selfishness is no different from the Old. Please stick to investment commentary and spare us the whining about 1) having to share the planet with other people who may not care to be bossed around by us, and 2) sharing our country with some people not well off enough to require investment advice.]]> Thu, 15 May 2008 11:41:22 -0400 Astute minds, my foot. What kind of silliness is this?

Yes, there are other people in the world that may occasionally impinge on one's own narrow greed, but we are not alone in our countinghouse, and our cultural heritage implies that we are to a degree our brother's keeper.

The New Selfishness is no different from the Old. Please stick to investment commentary and spare us the whining about 1) having to share the planet with other people who may not care to be bossed around by us, and 2) sharing our country with some people not well off enough to require investment advice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76470-the-etn-etf-debate-not-just-one-lonely-voice?source=feed#comment-165284 165284 Fri, 09 May 2008 22:28:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75317-are-socially-responsible-investing-funds-worthwhile?source=feed#comment-163901 163901 Thu, 08 May 2008 02:05:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75563-buffett-s-advice-to-the-berkshire-faithful-buy-index-funds?source=feed#comment-162390 162390
Certain gifted money managers have beat the market year after year for decades because they're good at it. By the time they get quoted regularly in the financial press, it's usually too late to buy in. Statistically, your brother in law is not likely to be Buffett/Soros/Rogers/T... Jones/Robertson etc.

Most of us do not have the gift of beating the indexes most years for a 30-50 year period, though some of us read and chart and sweat and swear and pretend to our friends that we have it too. Under those circumstances, it makes perfect sense to buy a clutch of Bogle's dead fish and hope that life doesn't hurt you too bad.

Or if you want to do it the hard way, and it's your money, and there's enough time, and not too many other people are dependent on your results, go for it. There are many roads to Heaven.]]> Mon, 05 May 2008 23:28:45 -0400
Certain gifted money managers have beat the market year after year for decades because they're good at it. By the time they get quoted regularly in the financial press, it's usually too late to buy in. Statistically, your brother in law is not likely to be Buffett/Soros/Rogers/T... Jones/Robertson etc.

Most of us do not have the gift of beating the indexes most years for a 30-50 year period, though some of us read and chart and sweat and swear and pretend to our friends that we have it too. Under those circumstances, it makes perfect sense to buy a clutch of Bogle's dead fish and hope that life doesn't hurt you too bad.

Or if you want to do it the hard way, and it's your money, and there's enough time, and not too many other people are dependent on your results, go for it. There are many roads to Heaven.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73827-taking-ipath-dj-livestock-cow-out-of-the-barn?source=feed#comment-156953 156953
We're often told to regard the stock market as a machine to take our money away that must be outsmarted. Well, the commodity markets are like that only much, much worse. It really is like catching javelins, as newby purchasers of commodity ETFs are discovering.

Google "ag futures" or "commodity futures" or "ag futures brokers" or "ag futures charts" and further such combinations. You'll turn up a lot of sites, some of which are more useful than others. One of them with a good Resources list is

www.site-by-site.com/u...

New and strange territory for us stock jockeys. But soybeans have made many millionaires, so there must be a way.]]> Fri, 25 Apr 2008 22:36:01 -0400
We're often told to regard the stock market as a machine to take our money away that must be outsmarted. Well, the commodity markets are like that only much, much worse. It really is like catching javelins, as newby purchasers of commodity ETFs are discovering.

Google "ag futures" or "commodity futures" or "ag futures brokers" or "ag futures charts" and further such combinations. You'll turn up a lot of sites, some of which are more useful than others. One of them with a good Resources list is

www.site-by-site.com/u...

New and strange territory for us stock jockeys. But soybeans have made many millionaires, so there must be a way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73827-taking-ipath-dj-livestock-cow-out-of-the-barn?source=feed#comment-156298 156298
Traditional stock charts are helpless in identifying recurring seasonal patterns in multiple ag contracts (e.g. planting season), and have no predictive power on weather-related commodities.

You've got to treat these ETFs according to their underlying commodities - they may be registered as stocks, but they don't behave like them.

Think of them as apparently rudderless closed-end funds, actually managed by invisible and capricious minor deities. Does that help?]]> Fri, 25 Apr 2008 01:31:35 -0400
Traditional stock charts are helpless in identifying recurring seasonal patterns in multiple ag contracts (e.g. planting season), and have no predictive power on weather-related commodities.

You've got to treat these ETFs according to their underlying commodities - they may be registered as stocks, but they don't behave like them.

Think of them as apparently rudderless closed-end funds, actually managed by invisible and capricious minor deities. Does that help?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73217-db-agriculture-fund-a-blunt-instrument?source=feed#comment-154610 154610
Looking at DBA not as a single stock but as a bunch of futures contracts, you'll find that many consider ag prices to be weather-driven for the next few months at least. This is a new story for a lot of us, but old hat for folks more who trade the individual commodities.

Those London-based individual ETFs won't be coming over here any time soon for regulatory reasons. But many US brokers now routinely buy and sell on overseas exchanges, so just ask.

The larger worldwide food thesis remains unchanged. Millions of people won't magically lose their hunger because of price movements in DBA.]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 09:11:14 -0400
Looking at DBA not as a single stock but as a bunch of futures contracts, you'll find that many consider ag prices to be weather-driven for the next few months at least. This is a new story for a lot of us, but old hat for folks more who trade the individual commodities.

Those London-based individual ETFs won't be coming over here any time soon for regulatory reasons. But many US brokers now routinely buy and sell on overseas exchanges, so just ask.

The larger worldwide food thesis remains unchanged. Millions of people won't magically lose their hunger because of price movements in DBA.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71905-misguided-calls-for-activism?source=feed#comment-149385 149385
The players have already demonstrated calamitously that they can't control their game. Blaming the regulators is pathetic. Obviously an outsider will have to come in and revise the rules. You can't perform an appendectomy on yourself.

The "magic of the market" is self-aggrandizing bushwa, fit only to delude and narcotize its promoters. When the oven fails to clean itself, you've got to turn to someone else. Sensible regulation, different regulation, but not less regulation.]]> Sat, 12 Apr 2008 01:47:01 -0400
The players have already demonstrated calamitously that they can't control their game. Blaming the regulators is pathetic. Obviously an outsider will have to come in and revise the rules. You can't perform an appendectomy on yourself.

The "magic of the market" is self-aggrandizing bushwa, fit only to delude and narcotize its promoters. When the oven fails to clean itself, you've got to turn to someone else. Sensible regulation, different regulation, but not less regulation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71797-money-magazine-etf-recommendations-keeping-it-simple-may-be-stupid?source=feed#comment-148232 148232
Restless, inquisitive types who write/read at Seeking Alpha are not likely to be comfortable with these simple recipes that require little tweaking.]]> Thu, 10 Apr 2008 10:17:17 -0400
Restless, inquisitive types who write/read at Seeking Alpha are not likely to be comfortable with these simple recipes that require little tweaking.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70660-terrorism-free-stock-indexes-launched-in-london?source=feed#comment-134612 134612
And do we know that the public and private investment funds that want to avoid Iran, Syria, etc. are run by Republicans? Repubs usually ridicule any form of socially conscious investing. If the last 7 years are anything to go by, the most dangerous place to stand is between a Republican and a dirty buck. ]]> Tue, 01 Apr 2008 13:00:47 -0400
And do we know that the public and private investment funds that want to avoid Iran, Syria, etc. are run by Republicans? Repubs usually ridicule any form of socially conscious investing. If the last 7 years are anything to go by, the most dangerous place to stand is between a Republican and a dirty buck. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69091-the-end-of-u-s-investing-as-we-know-it?source=feed#comment-128585 128585
And a note to TAS, Republican presidents of late have been totally irresponsible on deficit spending. To the extent that we are now the greatest debtor nation in the world, totally dependent on other nations of uncertain intent, Republicans should be prepared for some occasional bad press. And incompetent Repubs willing to serve as errand boys for Wall St. are going to get criticism for their unsavory friends.

Remember, Republicans are against big government because they don't know how to run one.]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 23:09:33 -0400
And a note to TAS, Republican presidents of late have been totally irresponsible on deficit spending. To the extent that we are now the greatest debtor nation in the world, totally dependent on other nations of uncertain intent, Republicans should be prepared for some occasional bad press. And incompetent Repubs willing to serve as errand boys for Wall St. are going to get criticism for their unsavory friends.

Remember, Republicans are against big government because they don't know how to run one.]]>