Panskeptic

The One-Decision ETF Portfolio

Nice. Are we allowed to substitute enhanced products? I am inclined against putting my own money in SPY, when I can choose from RSP, PWC, PRF, DLN, etc., but these don't have 15 years of numbers.

The absence of international exposure bothers me a lot, too. And what about commodities? I'd rather balance stocks against gold and the rest than against bonds. No room for DBC in this formula.

10-Year Compounded Return of Key Asset Classes

I have trouble seeing the last 10 years as a permanent condition of the market, to be used as a club to beat recent behavior. 3-, 5- and 10-year results can all be seen as anomalous.

If you want to talk about long term returns, it might be more useful to take a much longer period of time. But even then, those conditions are not going to recur. During the 100-year period from 1901 to 2000, the Swedish stock market is reported to have outperformed the U.S. Does that mean we should pile into Swedish stocks now?

If China goes through some kind of collapse and the US Congress attempts to pass protectionist legislation and hedge funds disappear overnight and, and, and, the toothpaste is still out of the tube - we're not going to reverse some major shifts that have already taken place and go back to economic structures of a decade or more ago.

The Case for Bonds, and the Problem With Bond ETFs

I like the guy who said, "Never fool around with married women and never buy bonds." It seems to me that there are plenty of alternative investments that can stabilize a stock portfolio without going near a bond. That's one of the great results of the ongoing ETF explosion.