Mike K

Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude

junkyarddog: Yes. The fed wants to keep rates low to help the housing market. On the other hand, this may be out of its control, especially with ECB so hawkish, since the market in the end determines long rates. Furthermore, if the inflation genie was let out of bag respective to wages, you would think affordability would go up to support housing versus low rates.

In reality, I'm thinking the short oil side will be likely what performs sooner, as the helium gets let out of the bubble. Massive economic slowdown (which the stock market is shouting) portends to deflation and commodity collapse with falling aggregrate demand.

Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude

Exactly... What a mess. My optimism is probably a decade too early, don't you think?

Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude

Nah. Why sink lower and play that game? The best way to solve a problem is change the paradigm. The US could achieve its political desires (weakening of rogue dictator nations?) easily through innovation. Just as the Internet has helped equalize communication freedoms (problem solved through innovation, not government policy) throughout the word, doing as I suggested will solve the funding problem. If you find a way to make oil cost $15/barrel, rogue nations so dependent on oil revenues will suffocate and pose less substantial threats to their neighbors as well as the world economy.

The winner simply plays a new game (innovation).

Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude

Peak oil is a misnomer. The theory should be relabeled "Peak oil at marginal cost of $10/barrel." With that considered, we have tons of oil recoverable at higher marginal costs ($60-100/barrel), still profitable for producers. Now that demand is falling, it kind of undoes the urgency of peak oil, don't you think? The stock markets' behaviors concerning this oil move are signalling that the price of oil will input to collapse economies, thus further invalidating peak oil's significance.

I'm all for getting off oil entirely. With a massive nuclear power plant buildout (and mass production of nuclear facilities) we could achieve an all-electric transportation infrastructure making peak oil worries a thing of the past. Then comes CO2 sequestration to algae ponds from coal production to create more liquids (and double coal's burning efficiency, reducing emissions). Then comes room to destroy a ridiculous ethanol subsidy policy and even possibly *tax* biofue producers for the use of corn and soybean for other than food purposes - this will fix food inflation. All without central banks hiking rates.

The middle east exporters will have trouble selling their 'black gold' for $15/barrel when that happens.

Too bad nobody is listening.

TTM Speculative Activity Actually Decreased on the NYMEX

Jjason: Exactly. Already saw that testimony a week or two ago. The market has decoupled from fundamentals. No its a (fund)amental market.

TTM Speculative Activity Actually Decreased on the NYMEX

Noncommercials are not counted as speculators formally, but they represent indexing fund interests (and probably even spec positions of investment banks as well). Basically this data is useless. The 'speculators' like the USO ETF are in the noncommercial side, I believe. Noncommercial open interest is up about 1m contracts over the last few years.

Distraction by bad statistics is ... well.... bad?